(c) murray turoff 20091 pm 761 technology in emergency management john jay college of criminal...

(C) Murray Turoff 2009 1

PM 761 Technology in Emergency Management

John Jay college of Criminal Justice

Murray TuroffDistinguished Professor EmeritusInformation Systems Department

New Jersey Institute of Technologyhttp:/is.njit.edu/turoff

[email protected]


Disaster have been with usfor a long time


Katrina


Course Objectives

Cover Requirements for Emergency Preparedness and Management Information Systems Consider behavior of individuals, groups,

organizations, and the public Consider communications and auxiliary

technology Extreme Events Evaluating Technology and associated

policies Underlying philosophies Future Concerns


Other Course Materials

Online bulletin Board System Discussion threads/conferences/lists

Instructor Instructions, read onlySyllabus for courseUsing the discussion system

Lecture Materials, read only Reading Materials, read only Introductions Questions on Lectures Questions on Reading materials Questions on assignments Other Questions Things to do (for learning), required Bad Examples of Emergency

Management, required Jokes in Emergency Management Practice Café (not on the course topic)


Emergency Response Systems First Presentation Content

Nature of an Emergency OEP Experience & Wisdom EMISARI at OEP DERMIS Conceptual Design

Dynamics Emergency Response Management Information System

General Principles Auxiliary Supporting Systems

Resource Database Systems Collaborative Knowledge Systems Virtual Communities Social Networks and associated options

Auditing and decision support Topics & Group Communications Concluding Remarks


Nature of an Emergency


Emergency Management Characteristics

Unpredictable: Events Who will be involved What information will be needed What resources will be needed What actions will be taken, when, where,

and by who No time for training, meeting, or

planning No contingency plan that fits perfectly Planning should focus on the process


Associated Concerns

Real practitioner team never formed till the emergency occurs Trust Conflicting goals Hundreds to thousands involved

Planners and executers are different individuals

Insufficient networking experience Insufficient command and control Disasters do not obey political, social,

organizational, geographical boundaries Many problems occur at interfaces to boundaries

– major errors, mistakes Sometimes called “interoperability”


Emergency Management Requirements

Obtain data, status, views Monitor conditions Fill roles on a 24/7 basis Obtain expertise, liaison, action takers,

reporters Defer to expertise and experience

Need trust and shared objectives Draft contingencies Validate options Obtain approvals, delegate authority Coordinate actions, take actions, evaluate

actions, conduct oversight Innovate when necessary Evaluate outcomes

Modify scenarios and plans Modify systems and operations Correct CAUSES of prior errors


Emergency ManagementPhases & Activities

Preparedness (analysis, planning, and evaluation): Analysis of the threats Analysis and evaluation of performance (and

errors); Planning for mitigation; Planning for detection and intelligence; Planning for response; Planning for recovery and/or normalization Continuous correction of operations and

plans Design of support systems and relationships

Training Mitigation Detection Warning Response Recovery/normalization


Organizational Emergency Situations

Strike Court Case Cost overrun Delivery delay New regulation Terrorist action Supply shortage Natural Disaster Man Made Disaster Production delay Product malfunction Contract Negotiation Loss of a key customer Responding to an RFP Loss of key employee(s) New Competitive product


Positive Emergency Situations

Responding to an RFP Winning a large contract Developing a new product Creating a long term plan Understanding and responding to new

regulations Taking over another company Too many orders for a product

Employee shortage Shortage of raw materials Production problems

Creating a time urgent task force or committee

Matrix Management


Business Continuityand “other”

Very similar concerns to Emergency Management

Most business rely on external resources and support provided by the community they reside in However utilities, chemical plants, military bases,

etc, must deal with the problems their existence can create

Law Enforcement has a unique characteristic in trying to detect man made threats and dealing with them beforehand rather than those produced by nature

Citizen, medical, community and Private Organization preparedness and management

Interoperability is a major concern Should be no real professional difference in

EM between public and private sectors


Lessons of 9/11 for Design

Vulnerability of a physical command and control center

Reductionism applied to Dynamic information Responder responsibilities Responsibilities of Agencies Communication systems

Threat-Rigidity Syndrome Clear Exceptions to Plans and innovations

Ferries as ambulances Use of N.J. National Guard telephone network

via guard members GIS database critical to recovery (e.g. bathtub) Recovery a major undertaking (e.g. response

continued: contamination)


Katrina Experiences Lack of adequate plans for things like evacuation

Flawed local planning process Lack of considering behavioral implications

Evacuation, civil employees, citizen trust (axes) Interrelationships of land management and

change of threat Obsolete data (flood prediction maps) No overall responsibility for long term

consequences of many actions by different entities

Loss of local command and control facilities Contamination of waters Lack of coordination among organizations of all

types Ice Fiasco, Citizen boat owners, Coast Guard, Red

Cross, medication Lack of initiatives Lack of expertise National Guard Status


Evacuation Example Evacuation Plans are quite common but usually

at a high level without answering the problem of exceptions How do you get people to evacuate in phases

which some plans called for? What happens to first responders that want to

insure there family gets out? Does a gas station attendant stay on the job? Does a food or grocery worker stay on the job?

How do locals get last minute supplies? Does the bus driver leave his family behind? How do you handle accidents in an evacuation? Can medical, police, and public works

communicate to be able to keep cars moving? Akin to building an information system under

the assumption nothing will go wrong and all incoming data is perfect. No exceptions are allowed Accidents, stalled vehicles, traffic jams, lack of

gas, food, water, etc.


Planning is Critical

Nothing works without good plans Planning is a continuous process Planning needs to be done with the

involvement of those that will be executing them.

Planning must focus on defining the process, responsibilities, roles, and the resources, not the decisions

Planning has to include recognizing prior mistakes/shortcomings and correcting them

Planning has to be tied to generation of mitigation options (Long term cost saving ratio 3-5)


OEP Experience & Wisdom

Office of Emergency Preparedness Executive Office of the

President


Office of Emergency Preparedness (OEP)

Existed until 1973 in the Executive Offices Derivative of OSS (Office of Special Services) Centralized civilian command and control in any

crisis situation: natural disasters, national strikes, commodity

shortages, wartime situations, industry priorities, wage price freeze

Command resources of all federal, state, local and industrial sources

Could incorporate personnel as needed from any source

Did contingency planning and utilized large community of experts and professionals on a national bases

EMISARI functioned in the GSA until the late 80’s, manual: http://library.njit.edu/archives/cccc-materials/ Report ISG-117: The Resource Interruption Monitoring System, October 1974 GSA


OEP Wisdom I An emergency system must be regularly

used to work in a real emergency People are working intense 14-18 hour

days and cannot be interrupted Roles rather than person of the moment Timely tacking of what is happening is

critical Delegation of authority a must and

oversight of delegated actions is critical Providing related data and information

up, down, and laterally is critical No way to know who will be concerned or

contribute to a particular problem Plans are in constant modification


OEP Wisdom II

Professional observers needed and trusted

Learning and adaptation of response plans from training and real events is a necessity

In a crisis exceptions and variations to the norm are common

The critical problem of the moment collects attention and resources


OEP Wisdom III

Roles are the constant in an emergency and who is in a role may vary unexpectedly

Training people in multiple roles is very desirable

Roles and their privileges must be defined in the response system (and the software)

Understanding what is reality as an objective

Coordination under unpredictability 24/7 operation


OEP Wisdom IV

Supporting confidence in a decision by the best possible timely information

Necessary PropertiesFree exchange of informationDelegation of authorityDecision accountabilityDecision oversightInformation source identification as

to source, date-time, reliabilityInformation overload reduction

Important computer design challenge


OEP Wisdom V

The crux of the coordination problem for large crisis response groups is that the exact actions and responsibilities of each individual cannot be pre- determined.

Coordination by feedback not by planRealistic information on current

conditions determines actions takenParadox of Executive Planning


Recent Supporting WisdomHale 1997

“. . . the key obstacle to effective crisis response is the communication needed to access relevant data or expertise and to piece together an accurate understandable picture of reality”


Other Supporting WisdomDynes & Quarenteli 1977

“Coordination by feedback viewed as failure of planning and failure of coordination by most organizations. Instead plan should focus on improving and facilitating feedback”

Plan the process and not the actions. Tie actions to observable measures and trust in expertise and experience

The future is too variable to predict what outcomes should be as part of a plan—a disaster or a new product


Other Supporting WisdomHorsely & Barker, 2002

Information Overload is typical People perform at higher levels of ability

then usual or expected Heterogeneous groups and individuals People work together who do not

normally do so Quick trust and spontaneous virtual teams

Cannot predict who will be involved Cannot predict who will carry out what role

at what time Community and Public relations is

critical (confidence and trust) Consider hurricane evacuation in Texas after

Katrina People panicking is very rare especially if

authority is trusted


Threat Rigidity Syndrome

Stress sets in, possible from: Fatigue, long hours, cognitive conflicts, high

uncertainty Information Overload and/or uncertainty of

right data being there Responsibilities for lives and as lives are

lost based upon decisions made doubt and uncertainty in abilities set in

Is better information going to show up in time? Golden hour for medical treatment

Choice of following a formula or engaging in problem solving, creativity, and/or improvisation


COGNITIVE ABSORPTION (Agarwal and Karahanna, 2000)

Psychological state of deep involvement Temporal dissociation Focused immersion Heightened enjoyment Curiosity or challenge

Observed for computer game players and FAA controllers

May lessen threat rigidity It can be a property of EM operators in

a command and control environment


Mental Questions that Cause Stress

Is the information I have a realistic picture of the situation?

Should I wait longer to make a decision and then I will have better information?

Does someone have the information I need to make a better decision?

How many more lives will be lost or saved if I wait for more information?

Can I trust the person taking over my role or should I work longer? Will that person have what I know and did and

will I know what he did easily when I return?


Positive Outcomes

Negative Outcomes

Environment and Support Systems

Increased Innovation

Lower

Stress

Levels

Higher

Stress

Levels

Stronger Motivation

Sensemaking Experience

Positive

Sense of

Control

Negative

Sense of

Control

Irrelevant Interruptions

Loss of Cognitive Attention

Increased Fatigue

Positive loop

Negative loop

Quality of Decisions Actions Analysis

Amount of Irrelevant Information

Increased Information Overload

Recognition of Relevant Information

Improved Situation Awareness

+_

Increased Cognitive Absorption

Maintenance of Cognitive Attention

Increased Threat Rigidity Syndrome

Model of Threat Rigidity


Emergency Response Critical Success Factors

The priority problem of the moment is the magnet that gathers the data, information, people, and resources to deal with it

The integration of qualitative and quantitative information with measures of timeliness, confidence and priority is critical

Having pre-established existing communities of people and resources to draw upon

Knowing who and what is available in real time Learning from each experience and modifying lore for

the future Allow participants to discover the problems they are

concerned about or can contribute to (open architecture)

Thousands of users possible but only 5 to 25 focus on any one problem and is unpredictable beyond basic roles. Depends on circumstances of surrounding problem. Decisions being made on incomplete information in

a time urgent manner


Open Issues

People can work 36 to 48 hours continuously in some crisis situationsHow do we really know when stress

and/or fatigue is interfering with their judgment?

How do we create quick trust in this environment?

How do we encourage creativity rather than rigidity?

How do you design an information system to encourage creativity?


Emergency communication design concepts

Provide signals of a communication process Content can be the address

Address a message to any data item whether quantitative or qualitative

Who created or modified text or data and when it occurred is always tracked

Status of inputs always visible Contribution Attributes: confidence, priority,

source Text can be program: active or adaptive text Human roles in the software (varied privileges)

Lateral (two way) linkages of material Do bookkeeping of communications for user Optimize group/team processes rather than

individual processes. Associate qualitative and quantitative

information


EMISARI

Emergency Management Information System And Reference Index

An “emissary” to those on the front linesCreated in one week as a derivative

of an existing Delphi Conferencing System for the 1971 Wage Price Freeze


EMISARI 1971

Emergency Management Information System And Reference Index

Developed at OEP on a UNIVAC 1108 using EXEC VIII – early multiprocessor design (48 bit words)

Sharable database structures with individual word locking/unlocking in hardware

First used for Wage Price Freeze in 1971 Based upon software developed for virtual

expert communities as a Policy Delphi Process Used until late 80’s for strikes, commodity

shortages, and some natural disasters. Typically 100-400 users, 20-50 government

units


EMISARI Objects

Administrator (any object can be changed or created in a few minutes)

Contacts (people) Conferences & Notebooks Data elements, tables, & matrix forms

Authorship & time of data by contacts Label, definition, & contact Data Status: unavailable now, never, temporary,

funny Directory

Contacts Assignments / Responsibilities Available objects

Online real time chat Separate message system

Send messages to any data item or any contact


Send Message to Data Element

Reporter contact could explain what was wrong with it

Analyst could provide their interpretation of what it meant

Contact could indicate he or she needed something different or complementary then current reported item

Any contact could make comment about what it means to them like suggesting it needed a detailed discussion in some conference on the system What databases do you use where this might

be a handy feature? Still not a standard feature


EMISARI Functions Message sent to contact, data element or form Discussion threads attached to objects Report formulation Virtual references between any objects simpler

html form. Could include current version of any data element,

text, message, etc in any other text item (&<m###, c##C###, n##p### d### v### t###)

Exception reporting using notifications (new entries using certain key)

Indexes Adaptive by use, most popular words in a two week

period Tracking misses, listing words searched but not

found Indirect communications (twitter property)


Data Object Types

For single variable, vector, or tableAdministrator

Defines element, label, definitionAssigns it to contactOnly one who can fill it inAlways records date-time, author, and

indicated special statusAny contact can search directory

entries of all data types and definitions


EMISARI Case tracking

Case Template Steps in process of a case Actions at each step Who can take action What step is triggered by action Person responsible for next step notified

automatically Others notified of status changes

Discussion thread attached to case Used for violations of wage price freeze Used for shortage violations (oil, natural gas, chlorine,

etc.) Originally design for tracking property disposal by the

federal government Defining templates (many laws governing process)

turned up some infinite cycles taking 5 to 10 years Emergencies need decision tracking software of this

type.


EMISARI Notebooks

Policies, Objectives, Laws, etc. and needed Interpretations

NewsActions TakenLimited Writers, many readersAdaptive Index

Last 500 words searchedLast 500 words not found by

frequency requestedIndirect communication path to

those creating the information


Two interesting cases

Cost of living council Meets once a week to make policy rulings List of not found words and their frequency

supplied to the staff to set agenda for meeting Notebook of interpretations used by people all

over the US to provide a basis for actions Lawyers that make interpretations of policy in

specific cases Refused to use EMISARI at start (used teletype

messages) Had same issue raised by different organizations

and interpretations made by different lawyers. Contradictions found by Washington Post and led

to them having to use the system Free access by those asking questions to all

questions and all interpretations News Stories


EMISARI Disruption Model

Commerce Input-Output Model Thousands of classifications Interrupt sub sector in given locality

by strike or other disaster Calculate probable greatest impacts in

rest of country Examination and prediction of where

problems are going to happen in strikes, shortages, disruptions

Results available in about four hours Tape driven system at the time


Emergency communication meta

processes

Computer AugmentationRegulation:

Sequencing, iteration, synchronization, participation, assignment, tracking

Facilitation: Organizing, summarizing, filtering,

exposing, integrating, indexing, notifying, classifying, motivating


Group Communications design concepts I

Provide signals of a communication process

Stored notifications of actions by others or by system

Status of members of the group Content can be the address Who created or modified text or data

and when they did it is always tracked What a person has seen or not seen in

database is also always tracked Text can be program: active or adaptive


Group Communications design concepts II

Flexibility humans can use in other media

Varied access privileges between members and objects

Human roles in the software Lateral two way linkages of material Do bookkeeping of communications for

user Improve group process by reduction of

process losses Relate qualitative and quantitative

information


Asynchronous opportunities of Group Communications

Independence of Individual problem solving Group problem solving

Meta process & synchronization Backtracking Changing views Individual control Equal participation Mixed cognitive styles

Bottom/up vs. Top/down Data vs. Abstraction


Goals of Group Communications

Collective intelligence Support for Human Roles Tailored communication and process

structures Integration with other

communication resources Self tailoring by users and groups Content as the address Design of a social system Communications as an interface

(people and resources) Asynchronous group problem solving


Smart Requirements for Emergency Group Communications

Determine what individuals are looking for and not finding

Guide individuals to those interested in the same thing at the same time

Piece relevant data together Alert individuals to anything falling in

the cracks Provide high confidence of a person

knowing they have the best information possible at the moment


Social Needs of intense groups

Rely on one anotherTrust the others to do their jobFrank and open viewpointsWillingness to handover roles and

responsibilitiesCreation of a team spirit Needs to be encouraged through the

system designEqual access to all by all, since we

cannot predict who might be involved for a given situation


HCI Challenges I

System is a helper not a boss System allows variable problem solving

methods Reduction of information overload Minimization of execution difficulty High degree of comprehension High degree of tailoring by individual Encourage creativity and improvisation Support decision confidence Monitor performance and effort for

possible fatigue Multimodal interfaces


Integration Requirements

Fire, Police, Public Works Public Health, Hospitals, Clinics, Doctors Community resources (e.g. bulldozers,

contractors, boats, generators, etc.) Utilities, Contractors, Equipment State Agencies, National Guard, State

Police, Other local regional Governments Federal Agencies, Civil Defense, FEMA,

Homeland Security Non-Profits, Service Organizations,

Professionals, Community Groups Citizen volunteers Forms of communication


Superconnectivity

Number of working communication relationships multiplied by a factor of five to ten

Accurate and large group memories for both data and lore

Faster communication process than other alternatives on the average

Individuals get to know each other without physical or status bias

Tremendous efficiencies possible with good design (beyond electronic mail)


Summary I

An Emergency Response and Management System is primarily a communication system.

The only content about the application in a communication system is that which is created by the users.

This requires the ability of users to create templates for content tailored to the various types of emergencies they must deal with.

The source and time of information provided is a key to information usage by users.

Quick trust and Virtual dynamic groups/teams are a key requirement.

Responsibilities/accountability for current and potential actions are necessary information

Crisis require individuals replacing others with respect to responsibilities as a crisis is a 24/7 occurrence.


Summary 2

Relevance of data, information, knowledge, and wisdom is time dependent.

The content of a communication can determine the address, no other communication system allows this.

Indirect communications can be as important or useful as direct communications

Dynamic Group Formulation needs to be provided as a result of the above

Need to minimize interruptions for people involved

Need to allow a high degree of user tailoring for roles and associated events


DERMIS Conceptual Design

Dynamic Emergency Response Management Information System

(The first layer of defense for the public body)


DERMIS Objectives

Easy to Learn High degree of tailoring by users Used by trained professionals Overcome problem of small screens

(PDA) Virtual command and control center Support use of remote databases in an

integrated manner Support planning, evaluation, training,

updating, maintenance, and recovery, as well as response

Communication process independent of content


Design Premises

System Training and Simulation Information Focus Crisis Memory Exceptions as Norms Scope and Nature of Crisis Information Validity and Timeliness Free exchange of Information Coordination and Integration


General Design Principles and Specifications

System Directory Information Source and Timeliness Open Multi-directional communications Content as the address Link Relevant Information and Data Support psychological and social needs


Supporting Design Considerations

Associated systems Resource Databases Community Collaboration systems Online Communities of Experts

Important concept: There is no specific data in DERMIS

system. Everything is created from templates for the data types that are defined so it can be tailored to any locality or region. It is a communication system just like a phone is. There can be a library of templates to draw on.


Six Specific Interaction Design Criteria

Metaphors understood by professionals

Human roles built inNotifications integrated into

communicationsContext visibility

Application Template is the menuChoice tailored to role

Semantic Hypertext relationshipsTwo way linkages created

List processing at user levelCreation of lists tied to rolesManipulation of items in a listEg expansion and contraction


Context Visibility Example

Recipe Processing instructions

Steps in the processMaterials: pots, pans, utensils

IngredientsAmounts, units

Click on anything to get more information To get other menus

Example: ingredient Mayonnaise might bring up recipe, types, properties, other recipes using it, etc.

Anything returns a result that could be tailored to the role of the person doing it.


Emergency Metaphor

All emergencies have events Time logged and archived Serves dispatch function Used after emergency to understood

what took place Often separate events on different

systems for each agency involved Consider dynamic database of events

integrated across all agencies


Metaphors I

Log of EventsRoot Event and Sub-eventsLateral EventsEach decision/action event

triggered by specified role or roles, or other events

Observations/reports can also be events

Event TemplateA collection of events possible within

the context of a given root event


Events Associated with an Ambulance

Request for an ambulance unitAmbulance, driver, paramedic,

medical supplies, gas.Response to requestOversight negation

Road blockage or traffic jamLack of suppliesLack of staffOther demands for units


Metaphors II

Events delivered to specified reactive roles for the event

Events delivered to roles that have specified the need to track given parent events

Event status is maintainedEvents can be categorized and/or

marked by user


Metaphors III Resource Roles

Requester: seeks to obtain resource Observer: Predicts need based upon

threat and observations Dispatcher/supplier: allocates it Oversight reviewer: Might negate it for

fair distribution based upon expectations Planner/Analyst: Predict consumption

rate and exhaustion potential of resource

Maintainer: Insures readiness Seeker: Obtains new units of resources Distributor: Distribution to dispatchers Each type of resource can have the

above 8 roles, a single site for use of the resources may have a unique first 3 roles, others depend on the nature of the resource.


Properties of Roles

Each role has its own event set it is concerned with

Clearly for a given situation roles must know of actions by other roles

If request cannot be honored the requester needs to know how long a delay might be involved

Each role focuses on a very specific responsibility for the total task of getting something like an ambulance sent

Scope of the disaster influences resulting complexity

Roles in very different areas need to know what each other is doing that affects them A mudslide or traffic stoppage on a certain road

may block resources to a given site and time to correct, if possible, needed


Metaphors IV

Events have semantic links to all relevant information and dataForms for the collection of dataResources of concernMaps and PicturesAppropriate command choicesAppropriate status optionsParent, children, and Lateral events


Event Log Metaphor

Encourages the use of both the semantic memory (relationship structure between events) and the use of episodic memory for the temporal sequence of occurrence of events

Aids in minimizing information overload impacts and supporting cognitive flexibility

Each event becomes a dynamic interaction menu – context visibility

Events for a given role may be from a variety of activities and from other roles Sending of resources needs knowledge of

ways of being sent and any blockage The computer can help to determine when a

role needs certain events When is the blockage to be cleared


Example: Resource Request Event Template Status & Steps

Resource Request (location, situation) Allocation (or deny, delay, partial allocation) In transit Arrival of resource Status change in resource Status change in situation Recycle action Resource maintenance, reassignment Return transit Tailored information Completion action Status report


Sample Event Types

Triggering/root events Resource requests Resource allocations Information requests Situation reports Completion announcements Status change Warnings/Alerts Leads/Speculations Role changes Interrupted events Suspended events Archived events


Individual Event Processing Profile of event types within specified

parameters like location Person has list of events of concern New events passing profile filter

delivered to list Add and remove events Mark events for tracking related events Events have hierarchy with a root event

and various layers May incorporate lateral events that are

needed May expand and contract list


Roles in DERMIS

Characterized byEvents the role can triggerRequired reactions to eventsResponsibilities for

Actions, Decisions Reporting of data Assessing Information Oversight, assessment Resource maintenance Reporting, Liaison


Fundamental Roles Incident local site commander Resource Requests (people or things) Resource Allocation Resource Maintenance Resource Acquisition

Finding needed resources (equipment, people) Reporting and updating situations Edit, organize, and summarize information Analysis of Situations

Expected results, expenditure of resources Oversight, consulting, advising

Negating allocations, alerting for running out Alerting and scheduling Assigning and scheduling roles and role

changes Coordination among different areas Incident wide area commander Priority and Strategy Setting Liaison to other organizations


Privileges for Roles

Creating event log entries of a given type

Templates to create new event types or new resources or anything not now specified in the system.

Responding to specific incidences of events by type, situation, and location

Supplying specific information or data

Producing situational and interpretive reports


Event Categories for Role Filtering

New/Waiting To do “asap”

Action required Response required Information required

Events with tasks for role Informational Priority change Status change Interrupted event Suspended event Finished event Archived event

Events tracked for interest/concern


Role Interaction Objectives

FacilitateHandover of rolesSharing of rolesAssignment of roles

Tracking Effort and time in rolePerformance and errors

Alerting oversight roles


Notifications

Minimal messages that contain the essence of a communication.

Canned so they can be reactive and triggered by a click. Usually they become part of what they are

reacting to Queries that require a response Alerting individuals to something that

has occurred due to the actions of others

Preformed statements like I agree, Good idea, I disagree, information X

needed, etc (what ever is wanted)


Canned Notifications

I agree/disagree with it I am taking care of this Delay this action Give this a higher/lower priority Get us more details on this Good point/work/job Is there more Find related information Investigate this


Query / Fill In notification

Supply an estimate of the injured? ______________

We will have more information by (time).

We will need (number) more of (supply item).

Alert for delivery of more involved forms needing processing


Context Visibility Example

A single event can have the following information with potential multiple links for each Event log ID Resource type Responsible party or author Relevant location or locations Next expected event Role to take further action Status of event Situation report Lateral Events Footnotes, notifications, and comments


Resource Context Example Menu

Clicking on a unit resource in an event could produce any of the following

results (depends on role that is clicking) Current status of the unit in this event Status of all units at location of this event Status of all units at desired source of

resource Status of all available units Status of all in use units Status of all units Sources for new units

These menu “links” dynamically updated Concept of general to specific with

lateral linkages at any level


Link Menu triggered by click on Resource Type

Defaults can be set by individual user role

Dimension of very specific to very general (examples) Status of the unit to be assigned or those

which are assigned (assigned) Status of all units in event area (involved) Status of all of units currently in assigned to

this emergency (total) Estimates of back up units (reserve) Other sources of resource


Nature of Hypertext Linkage

Two way linkagesSemantic meanings to all linksMultiple links from an anchor

pointCollection of links becomes a

balloon menu for that anchor point

Links are dynamic


List Processing Properties

Event log a very large dynamic list Template and incident relationships Many alternative orderings Internal network type indexing Collective view of reality Indirect communications, command,

and control Primary interface menu Communication bookkeeping on the

actions of others


List Processing Requirements

Tailoring by user roles and dynamic groups

Expand and contract listMark and prioritizeFilter, organize, and reorderAllow dynamic formation of groupsAlert to significant status changesIndicate what you want to track

and what you can ignore


Communication Exercise I(don’t do unless assigned)

Simple Morphological Problem 1. Police and law Enforcement 2. Firemen 3. Public Works 4. Public Health 5. Hospitals and Emergency Medical Services 6. Red Cross (temporary housing) 7. Utility Power Companies 8. Water and Sewage 9. Phone Companies 10. Transportation services (buses, trains, etc.) 11. National Guard 12. State Officials 13. Local Officials 14. Federal Officials 15. Press and the Public 16. Any thing you want to add


Communication Exercise II

Assignment: What is a specific example in any specific emergency where one of the above 15 listed organizations has to specifically communicate with one of the others for any reason that will aid the emergency management process. There are n(n-1)/2 possible combinations or 14x15/2 = 105 examples. You are only asked to come with 25 examples but try to determine some that are not at all obvious. Add a 15th if you come up with another organization you want to consider.


Communication Exercise III

Be specific: (1 and 3) A rainfall has caused a mud slide and the police, first on the scene, must get the public works department to clear the road that has been blocked; (1 and 5) the police must also notify hospitals that ambulances can not use this roadway to reach casualties; (1 and 13, 15) they must also notify the public local administrators.

Therefore, this one occurrence produces four items.


DERMIS Directory Structure I

DirectoryPeople

Background & Expertise Group membership Conference membership Bulletin Board Editorship Roles & Responsibilities

Event CreationCurrent Active EventsNotificationsResource Concerns

Authorities


DERMIS Directory Structure II

Directory Contacts Events Roles Groups (informal and formal) Conferences Bulletin Boards (e.g. policy, plans, etc.) Databases System Learning and help materials Training Materials and Games Related Systems


Design Principle I

System Directory provides a hierarchical structure, with lateral links, for all the current data and information in the system

Complete text searchingDynamic lateral link examples:

People in roles currentlyPeople qualified for rolesPeople tracking a given root event to

a template


Design Principle 2

All information brought into the system identified by source, time, and links to related events

All actions (controlled events) taken by roles also clearly logged and tracked within the templates they are linked to and identified by the role and who had the role


Design Principle 3

Open communications to all members of the system and all roles

Being able to start a discussion root linked to any object of data or information.

Paste communications anywhere in the system including multiple linkages


Design Principle 4

Links normally made by the system based upon the relevance of the data or information to current events and roles

Links may also be made by specific roles such as observers

We need subtle ways of keeping roles aware of what is new and relevant to them.


Design Principle 5

Dynamic update of information so that the user does not have to concern themselves with what is the most current situation

Predictions of updates where ever possible to let roles know if any relevant information is eminent


Design Principle 6

Any two items maybe linked semantically anywhere in the system

Links are always two wayLinks are typed and retrievableLinks have a date-time and

source as they are a data object


Design Principle 7

Authorities, responsibilities, and accountability are all explicit within the context of any role or set of roles

The same holds for the definition of events

Higher levels of authority are for oversight over the lower levelsAn action proceeds unless oversight

is executed in a timely manner


Design Principle 8

Encourage and support the psychological and social needs of any crisis response team

Facilitate quick trust and virtual team spirit

Try to detect and deal with stress and fatigue

Provide training for multiple role taking on the fly (e.g. trainees can observe the role in action)


Audit Objectives I

Foundations of AuditingTheory of Inspired Confidence

Limperg, Netherlands, 70 years ago Confidence of the public (citizens and

investors) in organizationsSarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002

Protect the interests of public investors

SARBOX for short


Audit Objectives II

Audit ImplicationsAssurance of the Decision Process

for all financial/economic transactions (not the decision)

Includes determination of VALUE and RISKS (!!!)

Includes stewardship of the managers and professionals

Assurance needs of society change over time


Audit Questions

Regular Decision Processes when there are problems detected What is the relevant data/information? Who has the decision authority? Who will make the decision? How was authority delegated? Who advises/consults on the decision? Who/what is impacted by the decision? Who needs to know about the decision? Does everyone concerned have access to the

relevant data/information? Who supplies data/information? When must the decision be made? What is the expectation of additional

data/information and when?


ER decision making issues

Complications added by Emergency Response Decision Processes Dynamic delegation of Authority Fluid accountability/responsibility Dynamic formulation of group concerned

with decision Critical time constraints Interdependence of transactions/events Dynamic role changes Conflicts for resources Unpredictability of environment


Create an EPTrust

Emergency Preparedness TrustSets of controls to measure the

current degree of emergency Preparedness of an organization

Natural extension of security and recovery auditing

Can be developed now and applied to organizations

A critical first step


Technology Changes I

Continuous AuditingContinuous tests of controlsContinuous monitoring of all

organizational decision processContinuous monitoring, capture,

reporting, and evaluation of dataDevelopment of performance

measures


Technology Change II

Organizational Process DesignIntegration of the flow of

data/information across functional domains

Making decision requirements explicit Supply Chain Management Customer Relationship Management Virtual teams, Outsourcing Enterprise/Strategic Resource

Planning: ERP, SRP, etc.


Observations I

Emergency decisions require the same assurance process as regular decisions and then some!

Technology is moving organizations in the direction of enterprise wide systems and ultimately to continuous auditing as well.

Continuous auditing is the backbone for any type of decision assurance process.


Observations II

CA makes the integration of Emergency Response Systems relatively easy

Insures training and use by employees It would spread ER systems throughout the

society It will reduce the costs of such systems Adding intelligent tools will be easier Confidence in making critical decisions will be

higher Stress will be reduced improvisation will be

enhanced Easier integration across organizations


Dangers of Computer Monitoring of Decision

Processes Computerization often leads to attempts to

simplify decisions so they can be modeled and programmed.

The approach needed is to leave complex decisions and problem coping to the emergency response managers and professionals

Making roles of managers and professionals explicit in the software and integrating that into Virtual Team support Systems is a solution to this problem if it includes: Tying of software supported roles to events

defining decision requirements Integration with the flow of data and information


Auxiliary Supporting Systems

Resource Databases Organizational Memory & Collaborative

Knowledge Building Systems for professional groups

Virtual Communities Local Community participation,

collaboration, and involvement in providing knowledge, person-power, and equipment.


Some Key Research TOPICS in ER

Virtual Command and Control Centers Stimulating creativity or improvising On-line communities: Generate trust, social

networks, cohesiveness, and community involvement

Investigations of decision scenarios and possible audit controls

Decision Support Tools for all ER phases Multimodal & Multimedia Augmentation New Training Approaches Distributive System Integration


Key Independent Decision Support Roles

Roles Support Functions Request resource Take Actions

Responsibility & accountability

Allocate resource Specialized authorities Report relevant data

Gathering information

Determining implications

Analysis & oversight

Acquire more resources

Dynamic “planning” by feedback!

Assign resources Command authority


Planning with DERMISDynamic Emergency Response

Management Information System

Generating scenarios and evaluating them as a collaborative exercise is quite easy to do in ERMIS

Addition need of voting and scaling aids to allow determining disagreements and focus discussion

Generate new event types and roles to deal with new risks


Training with DERMIS

Easy to establish training exercises based upon role-event structure

Simulation driven by a sequence of timed events in real time tied to the clock or can be speeded up for some types of training

Players can easily be simulated with respect to actions and generated events

Small teams can participate with a much larger groups of simulated players


Evaluating with DERMIS

Examine log file of events and actions by roles

Develop appropriate analysis tools to aid this process

Discover and correct problems by improving system and/or improving training


Recovery with DERMIS

Can be used to direct and coordinate the recovery activity

Can involve any diversity organizations and agencies involved

Provides a complete record and accountability for the recovery process


Summary on DERMIS

Can be used for all phases of the emergency response process

Can be used for “little” emergencies which are quite common in any type of organizations

Can be used to support Online Communities


Topics & Group Communications

Developed at NJIT on the EIES system in the late 70’s

Electronic Information Exchange System (EIES)


Topics: Unpredictable information exchange

Topic is limited sized inquiry Broadcast to all Selection of ones to track (receive

responses) by reader Limited response length Types of response: reference, answer,

contact Data base of results Roles in software: Indexer, Briefer


Topics Example State Legislative Science Advisors Large groups (50-300) Each topic about 15 responses Sample topics in 3 weeks

Computer crime laws, mining of bentonite, legal definition of death, control of isobutynitrite, hazardous waste survey, underground hv transmission, licensing child care centers, child abuse, prison industries, licensing of midwives, salt brime disposal, cameras in court, junk foods in schools, educational vouchers, definition of antiques, generic drugs, methodone, migrant education


Loss of Focus and Interruptions

Early studies of programmersInterruptions cost complex problem

solving loss of setup time and think time

Shown to be very significantAlso slow response of systems a

contributory factorPutting programmers in open bays

and with lost of activity clearly detrimental


Serious Concern today about instant messaging and cell phones

in business

Help! I’ve lost my focus, Time magazine, January 16, 2006, by Stephanie Diani

CrazyBusy, Overstretched, Overbooked and About to Snap: Strategies for Coping in a World Gone ADD by Edward Hallowell, Ballantine books, 2006.


Concerns I

An epidemic of “Attention Deficit Disorder”

High Cost of interruptions Study of 1,000 office hours found 2.1 hours

a day or 28% loss of the workday Employees devote an average to 11 minutes

to project before a ping of an e-mail or the ring of phone interrupted

Once interrupted an extra 25 minutes needed to return to original task

Average worker juggling about 12 projects apiece

Interruptions destroy setup goals


Concerns II

Performance declines and stress rises with the number of tasks juggled

Most creative and productive people refuse to subject their brains to excess data streams

Some multitasking can stimulate, too much does the opposite

Interruptions at the beginning or the end of a task does the maximum damage

Interruptions of the problem solving planning process are considered the worse

Interruptions by email and cell phones maybe addictive


Results for Emergency IS

For problem solving we need to design systems that allow the user to focus on the tasks

The system has integrate the work of others in a manner that allows the user to concentrate of their work and have the benefit of what is really relevant to what the user is doing at the moment

Context visibility and hypertext as an associative mechanism

Event templates as an integration mechanism


Not an easy road to take Roles in Disaster Cause Rift in City:

Despite Sept. 11, Fire Dept and Police Lack Accord by William Bashbaum and Michelle

O’Donnell, New York Times, 4/3/2004, pages A1 & B4

“More than two and a half years later…the city still lacks what many experts say is the most basic and essential tool…a formal agreement governing what city agency will lead the response at the scene of any catastrophic accident…”


Goals of Group Communications

Collective intelligence Support for Human Roles Tailored communication and process

structures Integration with other

communication resources Self tailoring by users and groups Content as the address Design of a social system Communications as an interface

(people and resources) Asynchronous group problem solving Information Overload reduction


The Future

Smart planning, talented people, and well designed adaptive communication / information networks are needed

Change and disruption is more common than we think, even in commerce, and getting more frequent

The social system technology can be designed to make dramatic improvements in ER

However, does the organizational motivation and understanding exist to do it? The issue is designing new virtual organizations

and communities that will change existing organizations and the way things are done.


Quotes relevant to EM

The Information needed to understand the problem depends upon one’s idea for solving it. -- Rittel & Webber 1973

A Seer upon perceiving a flood should be

the first to climb a tree – Kahlil Gibran

We, the willing, led by the incompetent to do the impossible for the ungrateful, have done so much for so long with so little, we are now capable of doing practically anything with nothing.

-- unofficial motto of emergency managers


The problem of KNOWLEDGE


The End of the First Set of Slides

(c) murray turoff 20091 pm 761 technology in emergency management john jay college of criminal...

Documents

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emergency preparedness

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