automatically tracking events in the news · automatically tracking events in the news ... joint...

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Automatically Tracking Events in

the News

Kathleen McKeown

Department of Computer Science

Columbia University

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Vision

Generating presentations that connect

Events

Opinions

Personal accounts

Their impact on the world

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Two Tasks

Monitoring events over time

Predicting their impact on financial

markets

Joint work with Tony Jebara and David

Yao

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Machine learning framework

Data (often labeled)

Extraction of “features” from text data

Prediction of output

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Machine learning framework

Data (often labeled)

Extraction of “features” from text data

Prediction of output

What data is available for learning?

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Machine learning framework

Data (often labeled)

Extraction of “features” from text data

Prediction of output

What features yield good predictions?

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Two Tasks

Monitoring events over time

Predicting their impact on financial

markets

Joint work with Tony Jebara and David

Yao

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Monitor events over time

Input: streaming data

News, social media, web pages

At every hour, what’s new

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Text Compression

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Data

NIST evaluation on temporal

summarization

hourly web crawl

October 2011 - February 2013

16.1TB

Different categories of disaster

Climate, man-made, social unrest

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Temporal Summarization Approach

At time t:

1. Predict salience for input sentences Disaster-specific features for predicting

salience

2. Remove redundant sentences

3. Cluster and select exemplar sentences

for t Incorporate salience prediction as a prior

Kedzie & al, Bloomberg Social Good

Workshop, KDD 2014

Kedzie & al, ACL 2015

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Predicting Salience: Model Features

Basic sentence level features

sentence length

punctuation count

number of capitalized words

number of event type synonyms, hypernyms, and hyponyms

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Predicting Salience: Model Features

Basic sentence level features

sentence length

punctuation count

number of capitalized words

number of event type synonyms, hypernyms, and hyponyms

Why is the number of capitalized words

important?

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Predicting Salience: Model Features

Basic sentence level features

sentence length

punctuation count

number of capitalized words

number of event type synonyms, hypernyms, and hyponyms

High Salience

Nicaragua's disaster management said it had issued a local

tsunami alert.

Medium Salience

People streamed out of homes, schools and oce buildings as

far north as Mexico City.

Low Salience

Add to Digg Add to del.icio.us Add to Facebook Add to

Myspace

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Predicting Salience: Model Features

Basic sentence level features

sentence length

punctuation count

number of capitalized words

number of event type synonyms, hypernyms, and hyponyms

High Salience

Nicaragua's disaster management said it had issued a local

tsunami alert.

Medium Salience

People streamed out of homes, schools and oce buildings as

far north as Mexico City.

Low Salience

Add to Digg Add to del.icio.us Add to Facebook Add to

Myspace

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Predicting Salience: Model Features

Basic sentence level features

sentence length

punctuation count

number of capitalized words

number of event type synonyms, hypernyms, and hyponyms

Why are synonyms, hypernyms and

hyponyms important?

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Predicting Salience: Model Features

Basic sentence level features

sentence length

punctuation count

number of capitalized words

number of event type synonyms, hypernyms, and hyponyms

High Salience

Nicaragua's disaster management said it had issued a local

tsunami alert.

Medium Salience

People streamed out of homes, schools and oce buildings as

far north as Mexico City.

Low Salience

Add to Digg Add to del.icio.us Add to Facebook Add to

Myspace

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Predicting Salience: Model Features

Basic sentence level features

Language Models (5-gram Kneser-Ney model)

generic news corpus (10 years AP and NY Times articles)

domain specific corpus (disaster related Wikipedia

articles)

What does a generic language model

capture?

What does a domain specific language

model capture?

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Predicting Salience: Model Features

Basic sentence level features

Language Models (5-gram Kneser-Ney model)

generic news corpus (10 years AP and NY Times articles)

domain specific corpus (disaster related Wikipedia

articles)

High Salience

Nicaragua's disaster management said it had issued a local

tsunami alert.

Medium Salience

People streamed out of homes, schools and oce buildings as

far north as Mexico City.

Low Salience

Add to Digg Add to del.icio.us Add to Facebook Add to

Myspace

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Predicting Salience: Model Features

Basic sentence level features

Language Models (5-gram Kneser-Ney model)

generic news corpus (10 years AP and NY Times articles)

domain specific corpus (disaster related Wikipedia

articles)

High Salience

Nicaragua's disaster management said it had issued a local

tsunami alert.

Medium Salience

People streamed out of homes, schools and oce buildings as

far north as Mexico City.

Low Salience

Add to Digg Add to del.icio.us Add to Facebook Add to

Myspace

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Predicting Salience: Model Features

Basic sentence level features

Language Models (5-gram Kneser-Ney model)

generic news corpus (10 years AP and NY Times articles)

domain specific corpus (disaster related Wikipedia

articles)

High Salience

Nicaragua's disaster management said it had issued a local

tsunami alert.

Medium Salience

People streamed out of homes, schools and oce buildings as

far north as Mexico City.

Low Salience

Add to Digg Add to del.icio.us Add to Facebook Add to

Myspace

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Predicting Salience: Model Features

Basic sentence level features

Language Models (5-gram Kneser-Ney model)

Geographic Features

tag input with Named-Entity tagger

get coordinates for locations and mean distance to event

High Salience

Nicaragua's disaster management said it had issued a local

tsunami alert.

Medium Salience

People streamed out of homes, schools and oce buildings as

far north as Mexico City.

Low Salience

Add to Digg Add to del.icio.us Add to Facebook Add to

Myspace

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Predicting Salience: Model Features

Basic sentence level features

Language Models (5-gram Kneser-Ney model)

Geographic Features

tag input with Named-Entity tagger

get coordinates for locations and mean distance to event

High Salience

Nicaragua's disaster management said it had issued a local

tsunami alert.

Medium Salience

People streamed out of homes, schools and oce buildings as

far north as Mexico City.

Low Salience

Add to Digg Add to del.icio.us Add to Facebook Add to

Myspace

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Predicting Salience: Model Features

Basic sentence level features

Language Models (5-gram Kneser-Ney model)

Geographic Features

Temporal Features measuring burstiness of words

How might we measure the burstiness of

words?

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Determining Redundancy

Use a semantic similarity metric

Discard sentences with similarity to

previous sentences

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SubEvent Identification

➔Decompose articles on a main event into

related sub-events:

Manhattan Blackout Breezy Point fire Public Transit

Outage

Hurricane

Sandy

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Two Tasks

Monitoring events over time

Predicting their impact on financial

markets

Joint work with Tony Jebara and David

Yao

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COLUMBIA DATA SCIENCE INSTITUTE Can we predict the effect that a particular event – such as extreme weather or political activity -- would have on financial markets?

Machine Learning

Natural Language

Processing

Financial and Economic Indices

Data Science

Take market financial data and traditional news feeds.

Use Natural Language Processing to transform raw data into structured event streams.

Apply Machine Learning tools to uncover previously hidden relationships between events and market behavior.

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Fin

anci

al D

ata

New

s Feeds

Infe

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Bayesi

an N

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Str

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Dis

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Predicting Market Impact

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NLP – Event Features

Binary features

calculated from news

Event type:

11 possible categories

Event location:

US or World

Sampled daily and hourly

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Financials, Macroeconomics

Financial market indices (65)

• Stock market (15 broad + 27 sector)

• Bond market (8)

• Volatility index (6)

• Commodities (9)

Macroeconomic indicators (8)

• real GDP (2)

• CPI (1)

• PPI (1)

• Income (1)

• Consumption (1)

• Employment/Unemployment situation (2)

Index/indicators selection

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Transform and Binarize

Compute relative change in indices

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Equal frequency discretization (S&P 500)

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ML – Structure Learning

To learn structure we assume samples are drawn iid from

unknown pairwise binary graphical model (no hidden

variables)

Training data: 2009-2014 Newsblaster data and financial

indicators

Use method of Ravikumar, Wainwright, Lafferty [2010]

Asymptotically optimal given mild assumptions & regularizer l1

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SCI TECH ECONOMIC

DISASTER

RVX VXD VXO

RVX – Russell 2000 Volatility

VXD – Dow Volatility

VXO – S&P 100 Volatility

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Results

We can predict

relation between event

and market impact

with significantly higher

average test likelihood

for held-out test days

Daily observations are

orders of magnitude more

likely under our model…

Naïve Tree D-Tree Ours-53.7 -37.8 -34.4 -26.4

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Impact

Learn from past events to predict the

impact of new events on financial markets

Identify new events as they occur in news

feeds

Graph modeling enables identification of

structural relationships between detected

events and financial events

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Thank You!

The research presented here has been

supported in part by DARPA GRAPH,

and NSF.