assessing instability in the information age: managing overwhelming information with simple models...

Assessing Instability in the Information Age: Assessing Instability in the Information Age: Managing Overwhelming InformationManaging Overwhelming Information

with Simple Modelswith Simple Models

Daniel T. Maxwell, Ph.D.Daniel T. Maxwell, Ph.D.Vice PresidentVice PresidentEvidence Based Research, Inc.Evidence Based Research, Inc.

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That Trust ThingThat Trust ThingSocial Domain

InteractionLanguage

Trust

Physical DomainComputers

PhonesTools

Cognitive DomainKnowledgeExperience

Beliefs

Information DomainDataInput

FormalNetwork

InformalNetwork

A Picture of Trust A Picture of Trust Related ConceptsRelated Concepts

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OverviewOverview

Project OverviewProject Overview

Supplemental architectureSupplemental architecture

The baseline modelThe baseline model

Demonstrate the Model Demonstrate the Model

Strengths and weaknessesStrengths and weaknesses

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Project GoalsProject Goals

• Automatically and continuously harvest open Automatically and continuously harvest open source information to support analysissource information to support analysis

• Automatically derive and generate event data Automatically derive and generate event data for structured modelsfor structured models

• Explore the utility of Bayesian Networks to Explore the utility of Bayesian Networks to identify instability / early warningidentify instability / early warning

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DocumentsOpen SourceAll Source DBDB

Parsing

LinguisticProcessorLinguisticProcessor

Extract /Transform

KBKB

RuleDevelopment

RuleDevelopment

High Resolution Data High Resolution Data StreamStream

DBDB

Information Processing ArchitectureInformation Processing Architecture

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Linguistic Processor Refines Linguistic Processor Refines DataData

Event classification

Textual data of interest

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Instability indicators derived from: Scarborough, Grace.  “Forecasting Political Instability in a Three-Year Period.”

Baseline (Time 0) Bayes NetBaseline (Time 0) Bayes NetModel is currently initialized using nominal dataIllustrative Value Only

88

DocumentsOpen SourceAll Source DBDB

Parsing

LinguisticProcessorLinguisticProcessor

Extract /Transform

KBKB

RuleDevelopment

RuleDevelopment

Bayesian Inference ModelBayesian Inference Model

DBDB

Instability Assessment Process Instability Assessment Process OverviewOverview

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Create Input Data for Bayes NetworkCreate Input Data for Bayes Network

1010

Model Result at Time 1Model Result at Time 1

Changes Probability ofInstability

1111

Sample Results Over TimeSample Results Over Time

Probability of Violent Instability

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

Time

Pro

babi

lity

AlertDesk

Officer

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Conclusions and Future ResearchConclusions and Future Research

ConclusionsConclusions• Appears to effectively “trigger” areas of interestAppears to effectively “trigger” areas of interest• Provides consistent and traceable results (Audit Provides consistent and traceable results (Audit

Trail)Trail)• Early indications of system scalability (Large Early indications of system scalability (Large

Quantities of Data, Many Countries / Regions)Quantities of Data, Many Countries / Regions)• Scoped to information sources Scoped to information sources

Future ResearchFuture Research• Larger data set Larger data set • Adjudication of information quality (veracity, Adjudication of information quality (veracity,

sensitivity, bias)sensitivity, bias)• Instantiating Immature TheoryInstantiating Immature Theory