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Assessing Instability in the Information Assessing Instability in the Information Age: Age: Managing Overwhelming Information Managing Overwhelming Information with Simple Models with Simple Models Daniel T. Maxwell, Ph.D. Daniel T. Maxwell, Ph.D. Vice President Vice President Evidence Based Research, Inc. Evidence Based Research, Inc.

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Page 1: Assessing Instability in the Information Age: Managing Overwhelming Information with Simple Models Daniel T. Maxwell, Ph.D. Vice President Evidence Based

Assessing Instability in the Information Age: Assessing Instability in the Information Age: Managing Overwhelming InformationManaging Overwhelming Information

with Simple Modelswith Simple Models

Daniel T. Maxwell, Ph.D.Daniel T. Maxwell, Ph.D.Vice PresidentVice PresidentEvidence Based Research, Inc.Evidence Based Research, Inc.

Page 2: Assessing Instability in the Information Age: Managing Overwhelming Information with Simple Models Daniel T. Maxwell, Ph.D. Vice President Evidence Based

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That Trust ThingThat Trust ThingSocial Domain

InteractionLanguage

Trust

Physical DomainComputers

PhonesTools

Cognitive DomainKnowledgeExperience

Beliefs

Information DomainDataInput

FormalNetwork

InformalNetwork

A Picture of Trust A Picture of Trust Related ConceptsRelated Concepts

Page 3: Assessing Instability in the Information Age: Managing Overwhelming Information with Simple Models Daniel T. Maxwell, Ph.D. Vice President Evidence Based

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OverviewOverview

Project OverviewProject Overview

Supplemental architectureSupplemental architecture

The baseline modelThe baseline model

Demonstrate the Model Demonstrate the Model

Strengths and weaknessesStrengths and weaknesses

Page 4: Assessing Instability in the Information Age: Managing Overwhelming Information with Simple Models Daniel T. Maxwell, Ph.D. Vice President Evidence Based

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Project GoalsProject Goals

• Automatically and continuously harvest open Automatically and continuously harvest open source information to support analysissource information to support analysis

• Automatically derive and generate event data Automatically derive and generate event data for structured modelsfor structured models

• Explore the utility of Bayesian Networks to Explore the utility of Bayesian Networks to identify instability / early warningidentify instability / early warning

Page 5: Assessing Instability in the Information Age: Managing Overwhelming Information with Simple Models Daniel T. Maxwell, Ph.D. Vice President Evidence Based

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DocumentsOpen SourceAll Source DBDB

Parsing

LinguisticProcessorLinguisticProcessor

Extract /Transform

KBKB

RuleDevelopment

RuleDevelopment

High Resolution Data High Resolution Data StreamStream

DBDB

Information Processing ArchitectureInformation Processing Architecture

Page 6: Assessing Instability in the Information Age: Managing Overwhelming Information with Simple Models Daniel T. Maxwell, Ph.D. Vice President Evidence Based

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Linguistic Processor Refines Linguistic Processor Refines DataData

Event classification

Textual data of interest

Page 7: Assessing Instability in the Information Age: Managing Overwhelming Information with Simple Models Daniel T. Maxwell, Ph.D. Vice President Evidence Based

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Instability indicators derived from: Scarborough, Grace.  “Forecasting Political Instability in a Three-Year Period.”

Baseline (Time 0) Bayes NetBaseline (Time 0) Bayes NetModel is currently initialized using nominal dataIllustrative Value Only

Page 8: Assessing Instability in the Information Age: Managing Overwhelming Information with Simple Models Daniel T. Maxwell, Ph.D. Vice President Evidence Based

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DocumentsOpen SourceAll Source DBDB

Parsing

LinguisticProcessorLinguisticProcessor

Extract /Transform

KBKB

RuleDevelopment

RuleDevelopment

Bayesian Inference ModelBayesian Inference Model

DBDB

Instability Assessment Process Instability Assessment Process OverviewOverview

Page 9: Assessing Instability in the Information Age: Managing Overwhelming Information with Simple Models Daniel T. Maxwell, Ph.D. Vice President Evidence Based

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Create Input Data for Bayes NetworkCreate Input Data for Bayes Network

Page 10: Assessing Instability in the Information Age: Managing Overwhelming Information with Simple Models Daniel T. Maxwell, Ph.D. Vice President Evidence Based

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Model Result at Time 1Model Result at Time 1

Changes Probability ofInstability

Page 11: Assessing Instability in the Information Age: Managing Overwhelming Information with Simple Models Daniel T. Maxwell, Ph.D. Vice President Evidence Based

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Sample Results Over TimeSample Results Over Time

Probability of Violent Instability

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

Time

Pro

babi

lity

AlertDesk

Officer

Page 12: Assessing Instability in the Information Age: Managing Overwhelming Information with Simple Models Daniel T. Maxwell, Ph.D. Vice President Evidence Based

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Conclusions and Future ResearchConclusions and Future Research

ConclusionsConclusions• Appears to effectively “trigger” areas of interestAppears to effectively “trigger” areas of interest• Provides consistent and traceable results (Audit Provides consistent and traceable results (Audit

Trail)Trail)• Early indications of system scalability (Large Early indications of system scalability (Large

Quantities of Data, Many Countries / Regions)Quantities of Data, Many Countries / Regions)• Scoped to information sources Scoped to information sources

Future ResearchFuture Research• Larger data set Larger data set • Adjudication of information quality (veracity, Adjudication of information quality (veracity,

sensitivity, bias)sensitivity, bias)• Instantiating Immature TheoryInstantiating Immature Theory