are non-renewable resources...

Are Non-Renewable

Resources Critical?Thomas E. Graedel

Yale University

Center for Industrial EcologyYale School of Forestry & Environmental Studies

Total Material Consumption: Neolithic Human

Unit: tonnes/cap-yr

+0

6

5.1Breath

Excreta

Solid waste 0.1

0.8Resource ingestion(all renewable)

Total Material Consumption: Modern Human

Unit: tonnes/cap-yr

+6

89

19Offgas

Sewage

Solid waste 3

61Resource ingestion(lots nonrenewable)

0.1

1.0

10.0

100.0

1000.0

10000.0

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Al Cr

Cu Fe

Au Pb

Ni Ag

W Zn

Global 20th Century Metal Use

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

10 100 1,000 10,000

Ste

el P

rod/

cap

(kg/

(cap

.yr))

GDP/cap (90$/(cap.yr))

19401945195019551960196519701975198019851990199520002005

Size of bubble: Population

Crude Steel Production in China and India, 1945-2005China

India

11 Elements11 Elements

+4 Elements+4 Elements

Metal Linkages in the New Mineralogy

+45 Elements+45 Elements(Potential)(Potential)

Source: T. McManus, Intel Corp., 2006

Periodic Table According to Atomic Abundance in Earth’s Crust

The Central Question

People agree we are getting close to “peak oil” – the year in which oil

production will hit a peak and then decline. Should we expect “peak metals”

in our future?

Evaluating the Criticality of Materials

The First Dimension of Criticality Supply risk

– Geologic availability -- Technical availability– Regulatory availability -- Geopolitical availability– Social availability -- Market availability

US Resource Dependencies

0 50 100 150

In

RE

Re

Ti

Ni

Mo

per cent imported

MoCuNiWTiCoRePtRENbIn

CLCL

CA, RUCN, CAKZ, RURU, CG

CLSA, RU

CNBZCN

PRINCIPALEXPORTINGCOUNTRIES

China Resource Dependencies

0 20 40 60 80 100

Cu

Ti

Ni

W

per cent imported

REWMoNiReTiCoCu

The Second Dimension of Criticality: Impacts of Supply Restriction

– Prevents manufacture– Impedes product development– Influences profitability

High

Low

Low HighSupply Risk

Impa

ct o

f Sup

ply

Res

tric

tion

Two-Dimensional Criticality

High

Low

Low HighSupply Risk

Impa

ct o

f Sup

ply

Res

tric

tion

Locating a Product Material on the “Impact of Restriction” Axis

Regionof a highimpactmaterial

Regionof a lowimpactmaterial

High

Low

Low HighSupply Risk

Impa

ct o

f Sup

ply

Res

tric

tion

Locating a Product Material on the “Supply Risk” Axis

Regionof a highsupplyriskmaterial

Regionof a lowsupply riskmaterial

High

Low

Low HighSupply Risk

Impa

ct o

f Sup

ply

Res

tric

tion

Identifying the “Region of Danger”

Regionof Danger

Criticality Example: Platinum

• Application in the auto industry: CO and HC reduction in catalytic converters

• Substitutes– Gasoline catalytic converters: Palladium– Diesel catalytic converters - None

• Nature of criticality– Primary concern: “No build” condition– Secondary concern: Price ($1200/troy oz on

2/20/07, $2095/troy oz on 5/9/08)

Criticality of 11 Minerals Evaluated by theU.S. National Research Council

Substitution as a solution for resource depletion – Is this a

reasonable option?

Aircraft Engine Combustors

Aircraft Engine Combustors

Rhenium: Only element whose alloys can withstand moderncombustor temperatures

The World’s Annual Production of Rhenium

1.2 m

Liquid Crystal Display

Liquid Crystal Display Phosphors

Europium: Only element known suitable as LCD red phosphor activator

The World’s Annual Production of Europium

0.7 m

POTENTIALLY LIMITED RESOURCES

• Resource appears small relative to annual extraction: Au, Cu, Zn, PGMs (Pt, Pd, Rh)

• Resource appears small and most uses are non-substitutable: In, Re, Eu, Hf, Er

• Principal source countries are politically problematic: Co, Ta

• Very large energy requirements: Al, Ti• Toxicity limited: Pb, Hg, As, Cd

A Mine of the Past: (Bingham Canyon, AZ Copper Mine)

A Mine of the Future

Summary• Non-renewable resource availability requires a

balance between supply and demand• Modern technology employs most of the periodic

table of resources• We lack sufficient data, but limits to non-

renewable resources are quite possible in the next decade or two

• As we deplete ore in the ground, our cities are becoming the mines of the future. We need to learn how to be better urban miners

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

10 100 1,000 10,000

Ste

el P

rod/

cap

(kg/

(cap

.yr))

GDP/cap (90$/(cap.yr))

Size of bubble: Population

Crude Steel Production in China and India, 1945-2005China

India

(2005)

(1945)