are non-renewable resources...
TRANSCRIPT
Are Non-Renewable
Resources Critical?Thomas E. Graedel
Yale University
Center for Industrial EcologyYale School of Forestry & Environmental Studies
Total Material Consumption: Neolithic Human
Unit: tonnes/cap-yr
+0
6
5.1Breath
Excreta
Solid waste 0.1
0.8Resource ingestion(all renewable)
Total Material Consumption: Modern Human
Unit: tonnes/cap-yr
+6
89
19Offgas
Sewage
Solid waste 3
61Resource ingestion(lots nonrenewable)
0.1
1.0
10.0
100.0
1000.0
10000.0
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Al Cr
Cu Fe
Au Pb
Ni Ag
W Zn
Global 20th Century Metal Use
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
10 100 1,000 10,000
Ste
el P
rod/
cap
(kg/
(cap
.yr))
GDP/cap (90$/(cap.yr))
19401945195019551960196519701975198019851990199520002005
Size of bubble: Population
Crude Steel Production in China and India, 1945-2005China
India
11 Elements11 Elements
+4 Elements+4 Elements
Metal Linkages in the New Mineralogy
+45 Elements+45 Elements(Potential)(Potential)
Source: T. McManus, Intel Corp., 2006
Periodic Table According to Atomic Abundance in Earth’s Crust
The Central Question
People agree we are getting close to “peak oil” – the year in which oil
production will hit a peak and then decline. Should we expect “peak metals”
in our future?
Evaluating the Criticality of Materials
The First Dimension of Criticality Supply risk
– Geologic availability -- Technical availability– Regulatory availability -- Geopolitical availability– Social availability -- Market availability
US Resource Dependencies
0 50 100 150
In
RE
Re
Ti
Ni
Mo
per cent imported
MoCuNiWTiCoRePtRENbIn
CLCL
CA, RUCN, CAKZ, RURU, CG
CLSA, RU
CNBZCN
PRINCIPALEXPORTINGCOUNTRIES
China Resource Dependencies
0 20 40 60 80 100
Cu
Ti
Ni
W
per cent imported
REWMoNiReTiCoCu
The Second Dimension of Criticality: Impacts of Supply Restriction
– Prevents manufacture– Impedes product development– Influences profitability
High
Low
Low HighSupply Risk
Impa
ct o
f Sup
ply
Res
tric
tion
Two-Dimensional Criticality
High
Low
Low HighSupply Risk
Impa
ct o
f Sup
ply
Res
tric
tion
Locating a Product Material on the “Impact of Restriction” Axis
Regionof a highimpactmaterial
Regionof a lowimpactmaterial
High
Low
Low HighSupply Risk
Impa
ct o
f Sup
ply
Res
tric
tion
Locating a Product Material on the “Supply Risk” Axis
Regionof a highsupplyriskmaterial
Regionof a lowsupply riskmaterial
High
Low
Low HighSupply Risk
Impa
ct o
f Sup
ply
Res
tric
tion
Identifying the “Region of Danger”
Regionof Danger
Criticality Example: Platinum
• Application in the auto industry: CO and HC reduction in catalytic converters
• Substitutes– Gasoline catalytic converters: Palladium– Diesel catalytic converters - None
• Nature of criticality– Primary concern: “No build” condition– Secondary concern: Price ($1200/troy oz on
2/20/07, $2095/troy oz on 5/9/08)
Criticality of 11 Minerals Evaluated by theU.S. National Research Council
Substitution as a solution for resource depletion – Is this a
reasonable option?
Aircraft Engine Combustors
Aircraft Engine Combustors
Rhenium: Only element whose alloys can withstand moderncombustor temperatures
The World’s Annual Production of Rhenium
1.2 m
Liquid Crystal Display
Liquid Crystal Display Phosphors
Europium: Only element known suitable as LCD red phosphor activator
The World’s Annual Production of Europium
0.7 m
POTENTIALLY LIMITED RESOURCES
• Resource appears small relative to annual extraction: Au, Cu, Zn, PGMs (Pt, Pd, Rh)
• Resource appears small and most uses are non-substitutable: In, Re, Eu, Hf, Er
• Principal source countries are politically problematic: Co, Ta
• Very large energy requirements: Al, Ti• Toxicity limited: Pb, Hg, As, Cd
A Mine of the Past: (Bingham Canyon, AZ Copper Mine)
A Mine of the Future
Summary• Non-renewable resource availability requires a
balance between supply and demand• Modern technology employs most of the periodic
table of resources• We lack sufficient data, but limits to non-
renewable resources are quite possible in the next decade or two
• As we deplete ore in the ground, our cities are becoming the mines of the future. We need to learn how to be better urban miners
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
10 100 1,000 10,000
Ste
el P
rod/
cap
(kg/
(cap
.yr))
GDP/cap (90$/(cap.yr))
Size of bubble: Population
Crude Steel Production in China and India, 1945-2005China
India
(2005)
(1945)