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Apple Market
Analysis & Trends
PROGNOSFRUIT - CONGRESS 2016
HELWIG SCHWARTAU, AMI
Development of apple market
Facts
● Forecast apples
● Russian ban continueing?
● Political situation in Arabic countries?
● Opening new markets (China)?
Analysis for the next season possible?
Apple market -
became a political football
04.08.2016 | 2
Less EU apple consumptionGermany, Italy, Spain, France – Monthly consumption and retail price
AMFJDNOS
2015/16 2014/15 2013/14
1,41
1.27
1.53
S O N D J F M A
2015/16 2014/15 2013/14Buying volume
Ø Monthly EU retail price
Source: AMI, European panel data
Total -3,5%
vs. 2014/15
04.08.2016 | 3
1,98 2,27
2006 2009 2012 2015
Pink Lady
Kanzi
Braeburn
Elstar
Germany - Year by year less consumptionRetail – Apple sales volume, August to June (%)
Source: GfK
10.6 11.1 13.3 14.16.5 6.6
7.3 7.0
82.9 82.2 79.4 78.8
2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16
Organic
Club varieties
Others
Retail price EUR/kg
Club varieties and
organic apples
are the winner of
2015/16
04.08.2016 | 4
Forecast EU organic apples, 1.000 tons
9
19
55
84
8
22
44
81
8
6
55
78
NL/BEL
Austria
Germany
Italy
2016
2015
2014
2014
Organic apple – Only a niche product?
Source: AMI,EBF
151158170
EU forecast, 1.000 tons
04.08.2016 | 5
20152014 2016
Market for organic apples like
an oasis!
Russian ban without effect
Increasing Polish apple
production without effect
Retailer with a great rate
Increasing consumption in
Europe
Attractive price for processing
But….
Carefully increasing production
EU – Organic production with top result
151
158
170
135
125
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
0
95
108
84
86
94
15/16
14/15
13/14
12/13
11/12
EU organic apple production (1.000 tons)
Retail price difference organic to IP apples (%)
Source: AMI, GfK, EBF
604.08.2016 |
Better quality, more apples for freshmarket?EU 28: Apple harvest for freshmarket, in million tons
5.55.2
5.6
4.65.0
5.55.2 5.3
1.91.7
2.2
2.0
2.4 2.7 2.5 2.4
09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17
7,7 million tons
Eastern EU
Western Europe (EU-15)
Source: AMI, WAPA
04.08.2016 | 7
Price autumn, EUR/100kg
South Tyrol Gala 70-75mm
60 75 45 63 ?
150
131
36
30
27
13
6
6
Southern Hem.
France
Italy
Germany
Netherl/Belgium
Spain
Poland
USA
UK apple imports in 2014/15 (total 400.000 tons)
Brexit and Austrian century frost in April
1.000 tons 2015/16 2014/15
Table apples 20.000 150.000
Export 5.000 70.000
Domestic market
- Austrian apples 15.000 80.000
- Import apples 50.000 20.000
Application Austrian apples, in 1.000 tons
Balkans (incl. Austria) apple imports 170-190.000 t, crop 2016 vs. 2015 = - 400.000 t
Source: Eurostat, WAPA
04.08.2016 | 8
1.000 tons
Less EU apple exports, change of trend?Ø-Current account balance for EU apples (1.000 tons)
1,210 1,216
1,006
1,515 1,563 1,604
1,780
1,550
-731
-581 -574-480
-600 -541-426 -470
479
1,035
1,3541,080
08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16
Import
Export
Source: Eurostat
Account balance
04.08.2016 | 9
239
124
151189
192
A S O N D J F M A M J J
2015/16
2014/15 537
472
550
2013/14 2014/15 2015/16
Monthly EU apple export, in 1.000 tons
EU - Apple export dropped down
Source: Eurostat
Ø Export price
EUR/ton
04.08.2016 | 10
Helwig Schwartau: Apples - Review of 2010/11 season
EU 28 - Apple exports in 2015/16
(August – April), comparison to 2014/15
Northern
Africa
336.000 t
(360.000 t)
Asia
56.000 t
(59.000 t)
Source: Eurostat
Eastern Europe
524.000 t
(704.000 t)
Middle East
212.000 t
(180.000 t)
Latin
America
34.000 t
(36.000 t)
Western /
Eastern
Africa
16.000 t
(18.000 t)
Belarus
398.000 t
(469.000 t)
Russia – Import ban and no moneyApple imports August 2015 to April 2016, in 1.000 tons
Source: GTA
188,001
87,522
84,919
38,692
30,744
27,787
20.229
Belarus
China
Serbia
Moldau
Macedonia
Azerbaijan
Southern Hem.
vs. 2015: -36%
+49%
+23%
+112%
+116%
-35%
-30%
2015
364189 273
656
456 321
1,021
645 594
2013/14 2014/15 2015/16
Total (millon tons)
Jan-May
Oct-Dec
04.08.2016 | 12
Arabic countries imported less applesEU apple exports August to April, in 1.000 tons
73
4763 67
4333 30
56
27
3443 44
40
22
4643
102
108
6849
6680 96
64
42
50
73
63
53
38
50
95
106
2134
11/12 13/14 15/16 11/12 13/14 15/16 11/12 13/14 15/16
Algeria
Libya
Egypt
Middle East
France OthersItaly
Source: Eurostat
04.08.2016 | 13
Poland - Increasing production, what next? Application apple crop (1.000 tons)
Source: AMI, Eurostat
112 165 16530
14208
258100
108
520490 880
2015/16 2014/15 2013/14
EasternCountriesAsia
EU East
Africa
EU West
Consumption
Domestic
650
EU
Subvention
150
2015/16Crop 4 Mio. tons
Processing
2.300
Export 880
04.08.2016 | 14
0.8
0.60.5
1.2
0.90.9
2.3
1.6
2.2
05/06 07/08 09/10 11/12 13/14 15/16
Application in 1.000 tons
Poland – What to do with the apples?
Source: AMI, KUPS
12.5
5.5
3,5
15
S N J M M J
15/16
14/15
Monthly price processing, EUR/100kg,free industry
ConsumptionExport
Processing
04.08.2016 | 15
Processing – Pressure in autumn?
2008 2013 2014 2015 2016
Source: AMI
Process. apple (Sep/Oct) 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016f
GER prod.org. Ø EUR/100kg 13 15 16 6 13 5-8
POL free indus. EUR/100kg 11-13 12-13 12-14 3-5 11-13 4-7
1.000 t
20102009 2011 2012
EUR/kg 1,85
1,30
0,650,85
6,3 Mio. tons
Price for AJC (EUR/kg) and apple harvest (1.000 tons) for processing
04.08.2016 | 16
Import markets for apples in the world,
trading Southern Hemisphere, till July
(1.000 tons) 2016 (red graphic column), 2015 and 2014
334340
422
Europe
4453
33
Russia
240
221213
Far East
177
125
177
North Am.
229
203190
Africa/
Mid.East
176
164
191
Lat. America
1,208
1,100
1,240
Worldwide
Forecast +6% vs.
2016 (real +10%)
04.08.2016 | 17
Global apple market – Door opener GalaOversea apples – Global exports until the end of July, 1.000 tons
175151 136
161123
170148
192 213
0 17 16 6
71
6462
95
8592
24
21
23
05 5 9
0
37 38 39
'14 '15 '16 '14 '15 '16 '14 '15 '16 '14 '15 '16
Granny
Golden
Red Del.
Pink/Cripps
Braeburn
Gala
Europe Asia AfricaAmerica
350.000 t
Source: AMI
04.08.2016 | 18
Asia – Important apple import marketsApple exports August to May (*until April), in 1.000 tons
46
106110
122
39
62
87
53
115
145
135
37
76
90
CHINA HONGKONG THAILAND TAIWAN SINGAPORE MALAYSIA* INDIA*
2014/15 2015/16
CHN 50%
US 25%S.Hem.10%
FRA 5%
RSA 42%
CHN 30%
FRA 13%
US 7%
France 2014/15 total 31.000 tons
US 40%
NZL 25%
CHL 25%
FRA 5%
CHN 75%
US 10%NZL 10%
FRA 4%
US 40%S.Hem.35%
JPN 20%
FRA 1%
CHN 35% S.Hem.30%
FRA 17%
US 10%
Source: GTA
04.08.2016 | 19
China 24BEL
3
FRA2
ITA10
USA47
South Hem.8
Others6
2014/15
India – Most important Asia import marketApple imports September to April, import destination in %
Source: GTA
China 54
BEL2FRA
1
ITA8
USA 25
South Hem.
3
POL1
Others6
2015/16
Total 87.000 tons Total 90.000 tons
Total 2014/15 = 195.000 tons (Italy 11.000 tons, Belgium 6.000 tons)
04.08.2016 | 20
Prospect for 2016/17
EU crop 2016 lower than 2015 and 2014
Better qualities, stretching the season
Once again more export in markets outside of
Europe? Instable political situation in a lot of countries!
Broard import markets: Austria/Balkan
Processing under pressure, but outlook better than 2014
The base for a successful season is an
increasing consumption in the domestic
markets
04.08.2016 | 21
Thanks a lot for your attention.
HELWIG SCHWARTAU, AMI, BÜRO HAMBURG
Helwig.Schwartau@AMI-informiert.de
+49 (0)40-6505595-0
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