Apple Market

Analysis & Trends

PROGNOSFRUIT - CONGRESS 2016

HELWIG SCHWARTAU, AMI

Development of apple market

Facts

● Forecast apples

● Russian ban continueing?

● Political situation in Arabic countries?

● Opening new markets (China)?

Analysis for the next season possible?

Apple market -

became a political football

04.08.2016 | 2

Less EU apple consumptionGermany, Italy, Spain, France – Monthly consumption and retail price

AMFJDNOS

2015/16 2014/15 2013/14

1,41

1.27

1.53

S O N D J F M A

2015/16 2014/15 2013/14Buying volume

Ø Monthly EU retail price

Source: AMI, European panel data

Total -3,5%

vs. 2014/15

04.08.2016 | 3

1,98 2,27

2006 2009 2012 2015

Pink Lady

Kanzi

Braeburn

Elstar

Germany - Year by year less consumptionRetail – Apple sales volume, August to June (%)

Source: GfK

10.6 11.1 13.3 14.16.5 6.6

7.3 7.0

82.9 82.2 79.4 78.8

2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16

Organic

Club varieties

Others

Retail price EUR/kg

Club varieties and

organic apples

are the winner of

2015/16

04.08.2016 | 4

Forecast EU organic apples, 1.000 tons

9

19

55

84

8

22

44

81

8

6

55

78

NL/BEL

Austria

Germany

Italy

2016

2015

2014

2014

Organic apple – Only a niche product?

Source: AMI,EBF

151158170

EU forecast, 1.000 tons

04.08.2016 | 5

20152014 2016

Market for organic apples like

an oasis!

Russian ban without effect

Increasing Polish apple

production without effect

Retailer with a great rate

Increasing consumption in

Europe

Attractive price for processing

But….

Carefully increasing production

EU – Organic production with top result

151

158

170

135

125

2016

2015

2014

2013

2012

0

95

108

84

86

94

15/16

14/15

13/14

12/13

11/12

EU organic apple production (1.000 tons)

Retail price difference organic to IP apples (%)

Source: AMI, GfK, EBF

604.08.2016 |

Better quality, more apples for freshmarket?EU 28: Apple harvest for freshmarket, in million tons

5.55.2

5.6

4.65.0

5.55.2 5.3

1.91.7

2.2

2.0

2.4 2.7 2.5 2.4

09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17

7,7 million tons

Eastern EU

Western Europe (EU-15)

Source: AMI, WAPA

04.08.2016 | 7

Price autumn, EUR/100kg

South Tyrol Gala 70-75mm

60 75 45 63 ?

150

131

36

30

27

13

6

6

Southern Hem.

France

Italy

Germany

Netherl/Belgium

Spain

Poland

USA

UK apple imports in 2014/15 (total 400.000 tons)

Brexit and Austrian century frost in April

1.000 tons 2015/16 2014/15

Table apples 20.000 150.000

Export 5.000 70.000

Domestic market

- Austrian apples 15.000 80.000

- Import apples 50.000 20.000

Application Austrian apples, in 1.000 tons

Balkans (incl. Austria) apple imports 170-190.000 t, crop 2016 vs. 2015 = - 400.000 t

Source: Eurostat, WAPA

04.08.2016 | 8

1.000 tons

Less EU apple exports, change of trend?Ø-Current account balance for EU apples (1.000 tons)

1,210 1,216

1,006

1,515 1,563 1,604

1,780

1,550

-731

-581 -574-480

-600 -541-426 -470

479

1,035

1,3541,080

08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16

Import

Export

Source: Eurostat

Account balance

04.08.2016 | 9

239

124

151189

192

A S O N D J F M A M J J

2015/16

2014/15 537

472

550

2013/14 2014/15 2015/16

Monthly EU apple export, in 1.000 tons

EU - Apple export dropped down

Source: Eurostat

Ø Export price

EUR/ton

04.08.2016 | 10

Helwig Schwartau: Apples - Review of 2010/11 season

EU 28 - Apple exports in 2015/16

(August – April), comparison to 2014/15

Northern

Africa

336.000 t

(360.000 t)

Asia

56.000 t

(59.000 t)

Source: Eurostat

Eastern Europe

524.000 t

(704.000 t)

Middle East

212.000 t

(180.000 t)

Latin

America

34.000 t

(36.000 t)

Western /

Eastern

Africa

16.000 t

(18.000 t)

Belarus

398.000 t

(469.000 t)

Russia – Import ban and no moneyApple imports August 2015 to April 2016, in 1.000 tons

Source: GTA

188,001

87,522

84,919

38,692

30,744

27,787

20.229

Belarus

China

Serbia

Moldau

Macedonia

Azerbaijan

Southern Hem.

vs. 2015: -36%

+49%

+23%

+112%

+116%

-35%

-30%

2015

364189 273

656

456 321

1,021

645 594

2013/14 2014/15 2015/16

Total (millon tons)

Jan-May

Oct-Dec

04.08.2016 | 12

Arabic countries imported less applesEU apple exports August to April, in 1.000 tons

73

4763 67

4333 30

56

27

3443 44

40

22

4643

102

108

6849

6680 96

64

42

50

73

63

53

38

50

95

106

2134

11/12 13/14 15/16 11/12 13/14 15/16 11/12 13/14 15/16

Algeria

Libya

Egypt

Middle East

France OthersItaly

Source: Eurostat

04.08.2016 | 13

Poland - Increasing production, what next? Application apple crop (1.000 tons)

Source: AMI, Eurostat

112 165 16530

14208

258100

108

520490 880

2015/16 2014/15 2013/14

EasternCountriesAsia

EU East

Africa

EU West

Consumption

Domestic

650

EU

Subvention

150

2015/16Crop 4 Mio. tons

Processing

2.300

Export 880

04.08.2016 | 14

0.8

0.60.5

1.2

0.90.9

2.3

1.6

2.2

05/06 07/08 09/10 11/12 13/14 15/16

Application in 1.000 tons

Poland – What to do with the apples?

Source: AMI, KUPS

12.5

5.5

3,5

15

S N J M M J

15/16

14/15

Monthly price processing, EUR/100kg,free industry

ConsumptionExport

Processing

04.08.2016 | 15

Processing – Pressure in autumn?

2008 2013 2014 2015 2016

Source: AMI

Process. apple (Sep/Oct) 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016f

GER prod.org. Ø EUR/100kg 13 15 16 6 13 5-8

POL free indus. EUR/100kg 11-13 12-13 12-14 3-5 11-13 4-7

1.000 t

20102009 2011 2012

EUR/kg 1,85

1,30

0,650,85

6,3 Mio. tons

Price for AJC (EUR/kg) and apple harvest (1.000 tons) for processing

04.08.2016 | 16

Import markets for apples in the world,

trading Southern Hemisphere, till July

(1.000 tons) 2016 (red graphic column), 2015 and 2014

334340

422

Europe

4453

33

Russia

240

221213

Far East

177

125

177

North Am.

229

203190

Africa/

Mid.East

176

164

191

Lat. America

1,208

1,100

1,240

Worldwide

Forecast +6% vs.

2016 (real +10%)

04.08.2016 | 17

Global apple market – Door opener GalaOversea apples – Global exports until the end of July, 1.000 tons

175151 136

161123

170148

192 213

0 17 16 6

71

6462

95

8592

24

21

23

05 5 9

0

37 38 39

'14 '15 '16 '14 '15 '16 '14 '15 '16 '14 '15 '16

Granny

Golden

Red Del.

Pink/Cripps

Braeburn

Gala

Europe Asia AfricaAmerica

350.000 t

Source: AMI

04.08.2016 | 18

Asia – Important apple import marketsApple exports August to May (*until April), in 1.000 tons

46

106110

122

39

62

87

53

115

145

135

37

76

90

CHINA HONGKONG THAILAND TAIWAN SINGAPORE MALAYSIA* INDIA*

2014/15 2015/16

CHN 50%

US 25%S.Hem.10%

FRA 5%

RSA 42%

CHN 30%

FRA 13%

US 7%

France 2014/15 total 31.000 tons

US 40%

NZL 25%

CHL 25%

FRA 5%

CHN 75%

US 10%NZL 10%

FRA 4%

US 40%S.Hem.35%

JPN 20%

FRA 1%

CHN 35% S.Hem.30%

FRA 17%

US 10%

Source: GTA

04.08.2016 | 19

China 24BEL

3

FRA2

ITA10

USA47

South Hem.8

Others6

2014/15

India – Most important Asia import marketApple imports September to April, import destination in %

Source: GTA

China 54

BEL2FRA

1

ITA8

USA 25

South Hem.

3

POL1

Others6

2015/16

Total 87.000 tons Total 90.000 tons

Total 2014/15 = 195.000 tons (Italy 11.000 tons, Belgium 6.000 tons)

04.08.2016 | 20

Prospect for 2016/17

EU crop 2016 lower than 2015 and 2014

Better qualities, stretching the season

Once again more export in markets outside of

Europe? Instable political situation in a lot of countries!

Broard import markets: Austria/Balkan

Processing under pressure, but outlook better than 2014

The base for a successful season is an

increasing consumption in the domestic

markets

04.08.2016 | 21

Thanks a lot for your attention.

HELWIG SCHWARTAU, AMI, BÜRO HAMBURG

Helwig.Schwartau@AMI-informiert.de

+49 (0)40-6505595-0