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21QUARTERLY INVESTMENT STRATEGYFirst Quarter 2017
UOB Asset Management
40
44
42
52
50
48
46
54
56
Nov13
Nov14
May14
Nov15
May15
Nov16
May16
42
46
50
54
58
Nov13
Nov14
May14
Nov15
May15
Nov16
May16
-10
-5
0
5
10
Dec12
Jun13
Dec13
Jun14
Dec15
Jun16
Dec14
Jun15
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
Dec12
Jun13
Dec13
Jun14
Dec15
Jun16
Dec14
Jun15
-8
-4
0
4
8
Dec13
Jun14
Dec14
Jun15
Dec15
Jun16
-22
-16
2
-4
-10
8
14
Dec13
Jun14
Dec14
Jun15
Dec15
Jun16
eConomIC InDICAtoRSAPPenDIX
DEVElOPED ECONOMIES EMERGING ECONOMIES
Purchasing managers’ index Purchasing managers’ index
industrial Production Growth (yoy%) industrial Production Growth (yoy%)
real GdP growth (qoq%, saar)* real GdP growth (qoq%, saar)*
* For some economies, annualised GDP data are estimates by UOBAM. For India, data are in year-on-year percentages (YoY%). + China Caixin PMI was previously known as HSBC PMI (effective July 2015).Note: All data are sourced from Bloomberg, Datastream and UOBAM unless otherwise stated, as at 1 December 2016.
US Eurozone Japan
US Eurozone Japan
US Eurozone Japan
ChinaBrazil Russia India China Caixin+
ChinaBrazil Russia India
ChinaBrazil Russia India
22 QUARTERLY INVESTMENT STRATEGYFirst Quarter 2017
Please refer to the last page for the important notice & disclaimer.
Note: All data are sourced from Bloomberg, Datastream and UOBAM unless otherwise stated, as at 1 December 2016.
-1
1
3
Dec13
Jun14
Dec15
Jun16
Dec14
Jun15
0
16
12
8
4
20
Dec13
Jun14
Dec15
Jun16
Dec14
Jun15
DEVElOPED ECONOMIES EMERGING ECONOMIES
Country Interest RateCurrent Rate
(%pa)Latest
meetingChange at
Latest mtg (bp)Last Change next meeting
1-Dec-16
united States Fed Funds Target Rate US 0.500 2 Nov 2016 - 16 Dec 15 (+25bp) 15 Dec 2016
eurozone Refinance Rate 0.000 21 Nov 2016 - 10 Mar 16 (-5bp) 8 Dec 2016
Japan BOJ Overnight Call Rate -0.054 - - 30 Nov 16 (-0.2bp) -
united Kingdom Uk Official Bank Rate 0.250 30 Nov 2016 - 4 Aug 16 (-25bp) 15 Dec 2016
Brazil Brazil Selic Target Rate 13.750 30 Nov 2016 (25) 30 Nov 16 (-25bp) 11 Jan 2017
Russia Bank of Russia key Rate 10.000 30 Nov 2016 - 19 Sep 16 (-50bp) -
India Repurchase Rate 6.250 25 Nov 2016 - 5 Oct 16 (-25bp) -
China China Reverse Repurchase Notes 7D Rate 2.250 22 Nov 2016 - 27 Oct 15 (-10bp) -
South Africa South Africa Repo Avg Rate 7.000 30 Nov 2016 - 17 Mar 16 (+25bp) 24 Jan 2017
Inflation - CPI (YoY%) Inflation - CPI (YoY%)
Central Banks Interest Rates
Source: Bloomberg, updated as of 1 December 2016
US Eurozone Japan ChinaBrazil Russia India
23QUARTERLY INVESTMENT STRATEGYFirst Quarter 2017
UOB Asset Management
equity indices(rebased 100 on 31 december 2014)
Dec14
Mar15
Jun15
Sep16
Jun16
Mar16
Dec15
Sep15
70758085
9590
100105110115120
75
65
55
85
95
105
115
Dec14
Mar15
Jun15
Sep16
Jun16
Mar16
Dec15
Sep15
Dec14
Mar15
Jun15
Sep16
Jun16
Mar16
Dec15
Sep15
88
93
98
103
108
113
Dec14
Mar15
Jun15
Sep16
Jun16
Mar16
Dec15
Sep15
95
100
105
115
110
120
125
Dec14
Mar15
Jun15
Sep16
Jun16
Mar16
Dec15
Sep15
40
100
90
80
70
60
50
110
120
Dec14
Mar15
Jun15
Sep16
Jun16
Mar16
Dec15
Sep15
100
110
105
mARKet PeRFoRmAnCeDEVElOPED MARkETS EMERGING MARkETS
equity indices(rebased 100 on 31 december 2014)
Fixed Income Indices(Rebased 100 on 31 December 2014)
Fixed Income Indices(Rebased 100 on 31 December 2014)
Commodity Indices(Rebased 100 on 31 December 2014)
Dollar Index Spot(Rebased 100 on 31 December 2014)
USA 9.7%
AC World 3.1%
EM -5.6%
Japan 11.1%
Europe -8.1%
SG Govt -3.3%
Asia 9.0%
Sovereigns -1.4%
G7 GBI 0.2%
High Yield 9.2%
Inv Grade -1.0%
Energy -36.3%
Gold -1.3%
GSCI light Index -22.2%Agriculture -19.3%
Industrial Metals -6.2%
Emerging Mkts 10.1%Corporate 10.0%Sovereigns 8.2%
High Yield 21.5%
Inv Grade 3.7%
Asia ex Japan -2.2%EM -5.6%
EM Europe -2.1%
EM latin Am -10.4% Inde
xIn
dex
Inde
x
Inde
xIn
dex
Inde
x
Note: All data are sourced from Bloomberg, Datastream and UOBAM unless otherwise stated, as at 1 December 2016.
24 QUARTERLY INVESTMENT STRATEGYFirst Quarter 2017
Please refer to the last page for the important notice & disclaimer.
earnings revision by sectors for Fy2
-4 -2 0 2 4
China
EMEA
India
Latin America
Emerging Markets
AC Asia Ex Japan
Russia
Brazil
-1 0 1 2 3
US
Australia
World
Europe
Canada
Japan
-2 -1 0 81 52 4 763
Energy
Materials
Cons Staples
IT
Telecom
Health Care
UtilitiesMSCI World
Industrials
Financials
Cons Discr
Real Estate
-5 -4 -3-6 3 4-2 2-1 10
IT
Energy
Materials
MSCIEmerging Markets
Financials
Cons StaplesUtilities
Cons DiscrHealth CareIndustrials
Telecom
EMERGING MARkETS
earnings revision by regions for Fy2 earnings revision by regions for Fy2
earnings revision by sectors for Fy2
% Change% Change
% Change % Change
Revisions in previous 2 mthsRevisions last mth
Revisions in previous 2 mthsRevisions last mth
Revisions in previous 2 mthsRevisions last mth
Revisions in previous 2 mthsRevisions last mth
Note: All data are sourced from Bloomberg, Datastream and UOBAM unless otherwise stated, as at 1 December 2016.
eQuIty mARKet InDICAtoRSDEVElOPED MARkETS
25QUARTERLY INVESTMENT STRATEGYFirst Quarter 2017
UOB Asset Management
*Mean and SD are based on data from 1999.
^Energy sector is not shown in the chart.
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
Oct
-00
Oct
-01
Oct
-02
Oct
-03
Oct
-04
Oct
-05
Oct
-06
Oct
-07
Oct
-08
Oct
-09
Oct
-10
Oct
-11
Oct
-12
Oct
-13
Oct
-14
Oct
-15
Oct
-16
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
Oct
-00
Oct
-01
Oct
-02
Oct
-03
Oct
-04
Oct
-05
Oct
-06
Oct
-07
Oct
-08
Oct
-09
Oct
-10
Oct
-11
Oct
-12
Oct
-13
Oct
-14
Oct
-15
Oct
-16
1.0x
1.5x
2.0x
2.5x
3.0x
8% 9% 10% 11% 12% 13% 14% 15% 16%
P/B
V FY
1 (X
)
ROE - 2yr Forward Avg. (%)
AC WorldWorld
US
Europe
Japan
AustraliaCanada
Asia Ex Japan
Latin America
EMEA
P/B
V - F
Y1 (X
)
ROE - 2yr Forward Avg. (%)
0.9x
1.3x
1.7x
2.1x
2.5x
2.9x
3.3x
3.7x
4.1x
5% 7% 9% 11% 13% 15% 17% 19% 21%
Consumer Discr
Consumer Staples
Energy
Financials
Healthcare
Industrials
IT
Materials
Telecom SvcsUtilities
Real Estate
AC World
developed markets earnings yield ratio* emerging markets earnings yield ratio*
P/Bv vs roe by region P/e vs Growth by region
P/Bv vs roe by sector^ P/e vs Growth by sector^
Nov-16, 2.7x
Mean +1SD, 3.5x Mean +1SD, 2.3x
Mean, 2.3x
Mean -1SD, 1.2x
VAlUATION
8x
10x
12x
14x
16x
18x
7%
PER
FY2
(X)
EPS CAGR FY1-3 (%)
AC World
World
US
EuropeJapan
Australia
Canada
Asia Ex Japan
Latin America
EMEA
6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20%
PER
(FY2
)
EPS CAGR FY1- 3 (%)
Consumer Staples
HealthcareUtilities
Telecom Svcs
MaterialsIndustrials IT
AC World
Financials
Real Estate
10.0x
12.0x
14.0x
16.0x
18.0x
20.0x
22.0x
2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16%
Consumer Discr
Nov-16, 2xMean, 1.8x
Mean -1SD, 1.3x
^Energy sector is not shown in the chart.
Note: All data are sourced from Bloomberg, Datastream and UOBAM unless otherwise stated, as at 1 December 2016.
26 QUARTERLY INVESTMENT STRATEGYFirst Quarter 2017
Please refer to the last page for the important notice & disclaimer.
Dec11
Jun12
Dec12
Jun13
Dec14
Dec13
Jun14
Dec15
Jun15
Jun16
Dec16
-0.5
0.5
1.5
2.5
3.5
Dec11
Jun12
Dec12
Jun13
Dec14
Dec13
Jun14
Dec15
Dec16
Jun15
Jun16
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
1 6 11 16 21 26 31-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
3.0
3.5
2.5
Dec11
Jun12
Dec12
Jun13
Dec14
Dec13
Jun14
Dec15
Jun15
Dec16
Jun16
0
1
2
3
-1
0
1
2
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
Switzerl
and
Australi
a
France
Eurozone
German
yJa
panUS-5
0
5
10
0
5
10
15
Thailan
d
Indonesia
South Africa
Malays
iaChina
Taiwan
Mexico
Brazil
India
Russia
South Korea
Philippines
FIXeD InCome mARKet InDICAtoRS
developed markets 10-year Government yield (%) emerging markets 10-year Government yield (%)
developed markets real Government yield (%) emerging markets real Government yield (%)
nominal yield curve (%) yield curve steepness (10y – 2y) (%)
US UK SGEU
10-Year Govt Bond Yield Real Govt Bond Yield - RHSCPI
ChinaBrazil Russia IndiaUS Euro Japan UK
1 W agoSG UK 1 W ago JP 1 W ago US 1 W ago
10-Year Govt Bond Yield CPI Real Govt Bond Yield - RHS
SOVEREIGN
Yie
ld (%
)
Tenor (Years)
Note: All data are sourced from Bloomberg, Datastream and UOBAM unless otherwise stated, as at 1 December 2016.
27QUARTERLY INVESTMENT STRATEGYFirst Quarter 2017
UOB Asset Management
Dec11
Jun12
Dec12
Jun13
Dec14
Dec13
Jun14
Dec15
Dec16
Jun15
Jun16
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
Dec11
Jun12
Dec12
Jun13
Dec14
Dec13
Jun14
Dec15
Jun15
Jun16
Dec16
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
0.5
1.5
2.5
3.5
4.5
5.56.0
Dec11
Jun12
Dec12
Jun13
Dec14
Dec13
Jun14
Dec15
Jun15
Jun16
Dec16
200
250
300
350
400
450
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
Dec11
Jun12
Dec12
Jun13
Dec14
Dec13
Jun14
Dec15
Dec16
Jun15
Jun16
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
Dec11
Jun12
Dec12
Jun13
Dec14
Dec13
Jun14
Dec15
Jun15
Jun16
Dec16
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
12.0
Dec11
Jun12
Dec12
Jun13
Dec14
Dec13
Jun14
Dec15
Jun15
Jun16
Dec16
400
500
600
700
800
900
4.05.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
FIXeD InCome mARKet InDICAtoRS
us markets (usd) yield and credit spread us markets (usd) Hy yield and credit spread
Pan-european markets (usd) yield and credit spreadPan-european markets (eur) Hy corporate yield and credit spread
Asia markets (usd) yield and credit spread Asia markets (usd) Hy yield and credit spread
JACI Yield (%)
Bloomberg Barclays Pan-European Agg Corporate Yield (%) Bloomberg Barclays Pan-European HY Yield (%)
Bloomberg Barclays Asia HY Yield (%)
Bloomberg Barclays US Agg Corporate Yield (%) Bloomberg Barclays US HY Yield (%)
Bloomberg Barclays Pan-European Agg Corporate Spread (bps) - RHS
Bloomberg Barclays Pan-European Spread (bps) - RHS
Bloomberg Barclays Asia Spread (bps) - RHS
Bloomberg Barclays US Agg Corporate Spread (bps) - RHS Bloomberg Barclays US HY Spread (bps) - RHS
JACI Spread (bps) - RHS
CREDITS
Note: All data are sourced from Bloomberg, Datastream and UOBAM unless otherwise stated, as at 1 December 2016.
28 QUARTERLY INVESTMENT STRATEGYFirst Quarter 2017
Please refer to the last page for the important notice & disclaimer.
Dec11
Jun12
Dec12
Jun13
Dec14
Dec13
Jun14
Dec15
Dec16
Jun15
Jun16
5
6
7
8
Dec11
Jun12
Dec12
Jun13
Dec14
Dec13
Jun14
Dec15
Jun15
Jun16
Dec16
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
Dec14
Mar15
Dec15
Jun15
Sep15
Mar16
Sep16
Jun16
100
105
110
Chinese Renminbi
Indian Rupee
Hong Kong Dollar
Philippines Peso
Taiwanese Dollar
Thai Baht
Singapore Dollar
Indonesian Rupiah
Malaysian Ringgit
South Korean Won
Japanese Yen
-6.1-5.9
-3.6-3.4
-1.1- 0.2
-0.10.9
1.93.1
5.3
-8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6
Mexican Peso
Turkish Lira
Polish Zloty
Hungarian Forint
South African Rand
Colombian Peso
Russian Ruble
Brazilian Real
-16.0
-15.1
-6.4
-1.5
3.3
10.0
13.7
16.8
-20 -16 -12 -8 -4 0 4 8 12 16 20
British PoundSwedish Krona
Swiss Franc
EuroDanish Krone
Australian DollarCanadian Dollar
Norwegian DollarNew Zealand Dollar
Japanese Yen
- 15.2
- 8.4-2.5-2.2
-1.81.4
3.13.63.9
5.3
-20 -16 -12 -8 -4 0 4 8
emerging markets (usd) yield and credit spread emerging markets (local currency) Bond yield
dollar index spot (rebased 100 on 31 december 2014) G-10 Fx against us dollar
emerging markets Fx against us dollar Asia Fx against us dollar
Note: All data are sourced from Bloomberg, Datastream and UOBAM unless otherwise stated, as at 1 December 2016.
JPMorgan EMBI Yield (%) JPMorgan GBI-EM Bond Yield (%)
CURRENCIES
Ind
ex
% change versus USD from 31 Dec 15 to 30 Nov 2016
% change versus USD from 31 Dec 15 to 30 Nov 2016 % change versus USD from 31 Dec 15 to 30 Nov 2016
CREDITS
JPMorgan EMBI Spread (bps) - RHS
29QUARTERLY INVESTMENT STRATEGYFirst Quarter 2017
UOB Asset Management
Dec12
Jun13
Dec13
Jun14
Dec14
Jun15
Dec15
Jun16
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
6
8
10
Dec12
Jun13
Dec14
Dec13
Jun14
Dec15
Jun15
Jun16
10
15
20
25
30
35
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
Dec12
Jun13
Dec14
Dec13
Jun14
Dec15
Jun15
Jun16
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
2,200
2
3
4
5
6
Dec12
Jun13
Dec14
Dec13
Jun14
Dec15
Jun15
Jun16
800
900
1,000
1,100
1,200
1,300
1,400
1,500
1,600
1,700
250
450
650
Dec12
Jun13
Dec14
Dec13
Jun14
Dec15
Jun15
Jun16
4,200
4,700
5,200
5,700
6,200
6,700
7,200
7,700
8,200
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Dec12
Jun13
Dec14
Dec13
Jun14
Dec15
Jun15
Jun16
30
60
90
120
150
60
80
100
120
CommoDIty mARKet InDICAtoRS
Brent crude oil Price and Production Agriculture Price (usd)
Precious metal Price (usd) copper Price (usd)
Note: All data are sourced from Bloomberg, Datastream and UOBAM unless otherwise stated, as at 1 December 2016.
Bloomberg OPEC Crude Oil Production Output/Saudi ArabiaDOE EIA US Crude Oil ProductionBrent Crude Oil (USD)/bbl - RHS
Corn Wheat Soyabeans - RHS
Gold Silver - RHS LME Copper Inventories LME Copper Spot - RHS
LME Aluminium Inventories LME Aluminium Spot - RHS
China Iron Ore Ports InventoryAustralia CIF Prices - RHS
Aluminum Price (usd) iron ore Price (usd)
Tonn
es (m
illio
ns)
Tonn
es (t
hous
and
s)
Mill
ion
Bar
rels
/Day
Tonn
es (m
illio
ns)
US
D p
er to
nne
US
D p
er to
nne
US
D p
er to
nne
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