aiello-lammens: global sensitivity analysis for impact assessments
TRANSCRIPT
Global Sensitivity Analysis for Impact Assessments
Matthew Aiello-LammensH. Resit Akçakaya
Stony Brook UniversityEcological Society of America 2013
•Land cover•Geology•Local accretion and erosion rates•SLR / climate change scenario
Sea-level Rise Model (SLAMM)
Land cover change through time
Demographic Model (RAMAS GIS)
Population size through time
Habitat suitability through time
Current species distribution
Habitat Suitability Model (MaxEnt)
Current demographic data
Integration of Sea-Level Rise model (SLAMM) and Population Viability Analysis
(RAMAS GIS)
•Land cover•Geology•Local accretion and erosion rates•SLR / climate change scenario
Sea-level Rise Model (SLAMM)
Land cover change through time
Demographic Model (RAMAS GIS)
Extinction riskPopulation viability analysis
Habitat suitability through time
Current species distribution
Habitat Suitability Model (MaxEnt)
Current demographic data
Integration of Sea-Level Rise model (SLAMM) and Population Viability Analysis
(RAMAS GIS)
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 21000.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
1.1
Year
Rela
tive
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e to
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Results
N (No SLR; Ceiling)
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 21000.3
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Results
∆ Carrying Capacity
N (No SLR; Ceiling)
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 21000.3
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tive
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Results
∆ Carrying Capacity
N (No SLR; Ceiling)
N (2m SLR; Ceiling)
Results
No
SLR
1m S
LR
2m S
LR
No
SLR
1m S
LR
2m S
LR
0.000.050.100.150.200.250.30
Extinction Decline to 20
Risk
No
SLR
1m S
LR
2m S
LR
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Expe
cted
Min
imum
A
bund
ance
JuvenilesAdult Males
Adult Females
Patterns? Patterns?
Risk
Processes?Processes?
Uncertainty
JuvenilesAdult Males
Adult Females
Patterns? Patterns? Processes?Processes?
Fecu
ndity
Surv
ival
, Adu
lt
Surv
ival
, Juv
enile
StdD
ev -
Surv
ival
, Adu
lt
StdD
ev -
Fecu
ndity
Carr
ying
Cap
acity
Disp
ersa
l
StdD
ev -
Surv
, Juv
enile
Corr
elati
on
Initi
al A
bund
ance
Rmax
- Co
ntes
t DD
-1
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
Δ Risk ExtictionΔ Risk to N=20
Risk
-Max
- Ri
sk-M
in P
aram
eter
Val
ueSensitivity Analysis
Sensitivity Analysis
Adult Survival
Fecu
ndity
Sensitivity Analysis
Adult Survival
Fecu
ndity
Sensitivity Analysis
Best Estimates
Adult Survival
Fecu
ndity
Sensitivity Analysis
Uncertainty
Adult Survival
Fecu
ndity
Sensitivity Analysis
Uncertainty
Adult Survival
Fecu
ndity
Sensitivity Analysis
Adult Survival
Fecu
ndity
Sensitivity Analysis
Adult Survival
Fecu
ndity
Sensitivity Analysis
Adult Survival
Fecu
ndity
Sensitivity Analysis
Uncertain Population and Vital Rate Parameters1. Adult Survival2. Variability of Adult Survival3. Fecundity (Juvenile Survival
and Maternity)4. Variability of Fecundity5. Dispersal6. Spatial Correlation7. Carrying Capacity8. Initial Abundance
Sensitivity AnalysisSnowy Plover Revisited
Sample Size / Partition Number Comparisons:
• 100• 250• 500• 1000• 10000
Sensitivity AnalysisSnowy Plover Revisited
Relative Influence of Parameters - 10k Simulations
Sample Size / Partition Number Comparisons:
• 100• 250• 500• 1000• 10000
Sensitivity AnalysisSnowy Plover Revisited
Sample Size / Partition Number Comparisons:
• 100 (100 sets)• 250 (40 sets)• 500 (20 sets)• 1000 (10 sets)• 10000
Sensitivity AnalysisSnowy Plover Revisited
Sensitivity AnalysisSnowy Plover Revisited
Parameter Relative Influence Values as Determined by BRT Analysis
Sample Size 10k Sample Size 100Fecundity 76.859 79.028Adult Survial 20.960 13.861Variability of Adult Survival 1.499 2.945
Variability of Fecundity 0.441 0.698
Carrying Capacity 0.184 0.628Spatial Correlation 0.025 0.700Dispersal 0.019 0.827Initial Abundance 0.013 1.312
Snowy Plover Sensitivity Analysis – Sample Size 100
Adult Survival
Fecu
ndity
LHS
Unif
Snowy Plover Sensitivity Analysis – Sample Size 100
Adult Survival
Fecu
ndity
Nearest Neighbor Distance
Freq
uenc
yLH
SU
nifLH
SU
nif
100 250 500 1000
Corr
elati
on V
alue
1.0
1.0
0.85
0.85
Snowy Plover Sensitivity Analysis – Box Plots of Variable Importance Correlation with Sample Size 10K
LHS Unif LHS Unif LHS Unif LHS Unif
No SLR 2m
SLR
100 250 500 1000
Corr
elati
on V
alue
1.0
1.0
0.85
0.85
Snowy Plover Sensitivity Analysis – Box Plots of Variable Importance Correlation with Sample Size 10K
LHS Unif LHS Unif LHS Unif LHS Unif
No SLR 2m
SLR
2m SLR: ∆ Carrying Capacity
Sensitivity AnalysisPaired Simulations for Impact Assessment
2010 2030 2050 2070 20900.3
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Year
Rela
tive
valu
e to
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2010 2030 2050 2070 20900.3
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Rela
tive
valu
e to
201
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No SLR: ∆ Carrying Capacity
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 21000.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
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1
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Year
Rela
tive
valu
e to
201
0
N (No SLR; Ceiling)
N (2m SLR; Ceiling)
Sensitivity AnalysisPaired Simulations for Impact Assessment
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 21000.3
0.4
0.5
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Year
Rela
tive
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e to
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∆N Due to 2m SLR
Sensitivity AnalysisPaired Simulations for Impact Assessment
Density of Probability of Decline to 50 – No SLRD
ensi
ty
Probability of Decline to 50
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8
Den
sity
Probability of Decline to 50
Density of Probability of Decline to 50 – No SLR
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8
Den
sity
Probability of Decline to 50
Density of Probability of Decline to 50 – 2m SLR
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8
Density of Probability of ∆ Decline to 50 Unpaired Bootstrap
Den
sity
∆ Probability of Decline to 50
-0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0
Mean Difference = 0.074
Density of Probability of ∆ Decline to 50 Unpaired Bootstrap
Den
sity
∆ Probability of Decline to 50
-0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0
Density of Probability of ∆ Decline to 50 Paired Simulations
Den
sity
∆ Probability of Decline to 50
-0.5 0.0 0.5
Snowy Plover – Sample Size 100 – Probability of Decline to 50
Probability of Decline to 50 – No SLR
Probability of Decline to 50 – 2m SLR
Freq
uenc
yFr
eque
ncy
LHS
Unif
LHS
Unif
Snowy Plover – Sample Size 100 – Probability of Decline to 50
∆ Probability of Decline to 50 (Result of 2m SLR)
LHS
Unif
LHS
Unif
Freq
uenc
yFr
eque
ncy
Probability of Decline to 50 – No SLR
100 250 500 1000
Corr
elati
on V
alue
1.0
1.0
0.85
0.85
Snowy Plover Sensitivity Analysis – Box Plots of Variable Importance Correlation with Sample Size 10K
LHS Unif LHS Unif LHS Unif LHS Unif
1.0
-0.5
0.0
No SLR 2m
SLR Paired
Current Implementations
Glossy Buckthorn - InvasiveEffects of land-use changeDensity dependence models
Passenger Pigeon – ExtinctionsEffects of land-use changeImpact of harvest / hunting
NA Herps – Impacts of Climate ChangeEffects of climate change scenarios
Acknowledgements:HR Akcakaya, J Stanton, A Cahill, G Sorrentino, H Ryu, E Kneip, K Shoemaker, M Aldred, S Sabatino, SERDP Collaborators
Funding:SERDP and NASA