advancing sustainability in a competitive world peter willis south african director university of...
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Advancing Sustainability in a Competitive World
Peter Willis
South African DirectorUniversity of Cambridge Programme
for Sustainability Leadership
Our Exuberant Journey to Here
X 3,5 in 100 years
The Population Take-Off
X 10 in 100 years
More ‘Stuff’ per Person
In 1712, Thomas Newcomen’s steam engine was deployed to pump water from flooded mines in Dudley, England… by turning heat into motion.
The Turning Point?
Our Recent Encounter with Hard Limits
“Anyone who believes continuous growth is possible
on a finite Earth is either a madman
or an economist.”
Kenneth Boulding (Economist)
2050
2012
Spheres showing:(1) All water (sphere over western U.S., 860 miles in diameter) (2) Fresh liquid water in the ground, lakes, swamps, and rivers (sphere over Kentucky, 169.5 miles in diameter), and (3) Fresh-water lakes and rivers (sphere over Georgia, 34.9 miles in diameter). Credit: Dr Adam Nieman
A Rather Dry Planet
All water
Oceans: 96.5%
Fresh water: 0.76%
Ice: 1.76%
Freshwater & Ice
Drinking water: c.0.1%
“Water Crowding Index”
5872 009 6261 9333 867 18 790
1 84019 502
WCIPopulation2025
340 1 165 Maputo 363 1 122 Incomati2 45011 906 Limpopo
1 06811 319 Orange-Senqu
WCIPopulation2000SA Portion of
River Basin
WCI values:0 – 100 = Water security
100 – 500 = Water sufficiency
500 – 1 000 = Occasional, seasonal water stress
1 000 – 2 000 = Frequent water stress; seasonally severe
> 2 000 = “Beyond the water barrier” - chronic water stress
Water Crowding Index (WCI) = Number of people per million cubic metres of water – (South African catchment portion)
Sou
rce:
Dr
Pet
er A
shto
n, C
SIR
201
0
River Basin Urban Rural IrrigationMining + Industry
Power Generation
Forestry
2000 to 2025
Orange-Senqu + 77 - 10 - 7 - 10 + 37 0
Limpopo + 146 + 27 + 9 + 30 + 26 + 3
Incomati + 145 + 3 + 5 + 5 0 + 5
Maputo + 126 - 3 - 3 + 1 0 - 4
1. Dramatic increase in urban sector demand for water in all basins
2. Large increase in power sector demand for water in the Orange- Senqu and Limpopo basins
3. Increased water demands from rural and mining sectors in Limpopo basin
Anticipated % Increase in Water Needs by Sector -
2025
ENERGY& Other Resources
The Economy = Mobility
Coal Crude Oil Biomass
Natural Gas Hydro Other
Nuclear Renewables
Crude Oil
Biofuels
Other
Source: IEA Key Energy Statistics & WEO 2010 (data for 2008)
2%Biofuel
93%Crude Oil
5%Other
6%Crude Oil
The Oil Dependency of Transport
“The Flame in the Darkness”
“The consumption of the world’s accessible oil endowmentwill occur over a two-century span of human history”
M. King Hubbert – c. 1955
The End of Easy Oil
IEA via The Guardian,2009
No Electricity – Mobility Fails
India: 31 July 2012
The End of Cheap Coal?
The End of Cheap Everything?
CLIMATE CHANGE
Our Very Own, First Ever Global Emergency
The Greenhouse Effect
Up to c.1850
2012
CO2 & other gases
Global Temperature Rising
Poles Warming Faster
Extent of surface melt over Greenland’s ice sheet on July 8 2012 (left) and July 12 (right). Satellites showed that on July 8, about 40% of the ice sheet had undergone thawing at or near the surface. In just a few days, the melting had dramatically accelerated and an estimated 97% of the ice sheet surface had thawed by July 12.
Sudden Non-Linear Changes
Source: UNEP, 2006
US National Center for Atmospheric Research:“Drought Under Global Warming – A Review” Oct 2010
A Drier (and Wetter) Future
Drought in US
Consequences are likely to be very seriousHigh probability of serious water, food, ecosystem and extreme weather effects
Source: IPCC 3rd Assessment Report. 2007.
+1°C +2°C +3°C +5°C+4°C
Consequences (cont.)
Climate change exacerbates existing threats and generates new ones
Number of people affected by climate-related disasters
1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s
Developing countries
Developed countries
Source: UNEP GEO-4 report
No.
of p
eopl
e af
fect
ed (
mill
ions
)
Only three options available to us:
1. Mitigate– Avoid the unmanageable
2. Adapt– Manage the unavoidable
3. Suffer– Put up with the unavoidable
What are our Options?
+2˚C +4˚C
Mitigate
Adapt
Suffer
Why +2˚C threshold is so important
1. Moderate population growth
2. Reduce demand (i.e. quantitative growth)
3. Maximise energy efficiency
4. Lower carbon intensity of energy supply
How can we Mitigate?
• The End of Growth?
• Formal employment will probably suffer most.
BUT…
• There will be LOTS to do!
• Co-operatives?
• Maximization of profit may be replaced by optimization of resilience.
Implications for Labour Law?
Our Exuberant Journey to Here