advanced automotive technologies

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Advanced Automotive Technology: Visionsof a Super-Efficient Family Car

September 1995

OTA-ETI-638

GPO stock #052-003-01440-8

The biggest collection of AUTO MANUALS & APPS on the Net
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Foreword

This report presents the results of the Office of Technology Assessmentsanalysis of the prospects for developing automobiles that offer significantimprovements in fuel economy and reduced emissions over the longer term(out to the year 2015). The congressional request for this studyfrom the

House Committees on Commerce and on Science, and the Senate Committees onEnergy and Natural Resources and on Governmental Affairs-asked OTA to exam-ine the potential for dramatic increases in light-duty vehicle fuel economy through

the use of breakthrough technologies, and to assess the federal role in advancingthe development and commercialization of these technologies.

The report examines the likely costs and performance of a range of technologiesand vehicle types, and the U.S. and foreign research and development programs forthese technologies and vehicles (to allow completion of this study before OTAclosed its doors, issues such as infrastructure development and market develop-ment---critical to the successful commercialization of advanced vehicles-were notcovered). In particular, the report presents a baseline forecast of vehicle progress ina business-as-usual environment, and then projects the costs and performance ofadvanced conventional vehicles that retain conventional drivetrains (internalcombustion engine plus transmission); electric vehicles: hybrid vehicles that com-bine electric drivetrains with an engine or other power source; and fuel cell vehi-cles. OTA has focused on mass-market vehicles, particularly on the mid-size family

car with performance comparable to those available to consumers today. Based onour analysis, OTA is quite optimistic that very high levels of fuel economy-up tothree times current averagesare technically achievable by 2015; attaining theselevels at a commercially viable price will be a more difficult challenge, however.

This report is the last in a series on light-duty vehicles that OTA has producedover the past five years. Previous topics include alternative fuels (Replacing Gaso-line: Alternative Fuels for Light-Duty Vehicles); near-term prospects for improvingfuel economy (Improving Automobile FuelEconomy: New Standards, New

Approaches); and vehicle retirement programs (Retiring Old Cars; Programs ToSave Gasoline and Improve Air Quality). OTA also has recently published a moregeneral report on reducing oil use in transportation (Saving Energy in U.S. Trans-

portation).

OTA is grateful to members of its Advisory Panel, participants in workshops onvehicle safety and technology, other outside reviewers, and the many individuals

and companies that offered information and advice and hosted OTA staff on theirinformation-gathering trips. Special thanks are due to K.G. Duleep, who providedthe bulk of the technical and cost analysis of technologies and advanced vehicles.

ROGER C. HERDMANDirector

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Advisory Panel

Don KashChairperson

Professor of Public Policy

George Mason University

Steve BarnettPrincipal

Global Business Network

Ron BlumSenior Auto Analyst

International Union United

Auto Workers

Tom CacketteChief Deputy Executive

Officer

California Air Resources

Board

Malcolm R. CurrieChairman

M-B Resources, Inc.

John DeCiccoSenior Research Associate

American Council for an

Energy-Efficient Economy

Kennerly H. DiggesAssistant Director

National Crash Analysis Office

Center

George Washington University

Christopher FlavinVice President for Research

Worldwatch Institute

Christopher GreenDirector

General Motors

NAO R&D Center

Dave GreeneSenior Research Staff

Center for Transportation

Analysis

Oak Ridge National

Laboratory

Maurice IsaacManager

Automotive Technical

Programs

GE Automotive

Mary Ann KellerManaging Director

Furman, Selz, Inc.

Gunnar Larsson

Vice President of ResearchVolkswagen AG

Marianne MintzTransportation Systems

Engineer

Environmental & Economic

Analysis Section

Argonne National Laboratories

Robert MullDirector

Partnership for a New

Generation of Vehicles

Ford Motor Co.

Nobukichi NakamuraProject General Manager

Toyota Motors

Peter T. PetersonDirector, Marketing Strategies

and Product Applications

U.S. Steel

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Daniel RoosDirectorCenter for Technology, Policy

and Industrial DevelopmentMassachusetts Institute of

Technology

Rhett RossSales Manager/EngineerEnergy Partners

Dan SantiniSection M an ag e rEnvironmental & Economic

AnalysisArgonne National Laboratories

Owen J. ViergutzExecutive Engineer

New Generation Vehicles

Chrysler Corp.

Margaret WallsFellow, Energy and Natural

Resources Division

Resources for the Future

Claude C. GravattScience AdvisorNational Institutes of

Standards and TechnologyU.S. Department of Commerce

Barry McNuttPolicy AnalystOffice of Energy Efficiency

and Alternative Fuels PolicyU.S. Department of Energy

Note: OTA appreciates and is grateful for the valuable assistance and thoughtful critiques provided by the advisory panel members. Thepanel does not, however, necessarily approve, disapprove, or endorse this report. OTA assumes full responsibility for the report and the accu-racy of its contents.
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Project Staff

Peter D. Blair PRINCIPAL STAFF

Assistant Director

Industry, Commerce, and Steven Plotkin

International Security Project Director

Division Gregory Eyring

Emilia L. Govan Assistant Project Director

Program Director

Energy, Transportation, and Eric Gille

Infrastructure Program Research Assistant

CONTRACTORS

Carol ClarkEditor

Energy and EnvironmentalAnalysis, Inc.K.G. Duleep

D.E. GusheeD.E. Gushee, Inc.

/ADMINISTRATIVE STAFF

Marsha FennOffice Administrator

Tina AikensAdministrative Secretary

Gay JacksonPCSpecialist

Lillian ChapmanDivision Administrator

Michael WangConsultant

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John AlicOffice of Technology

Assessment

Wolfgang BergMercedes Benz

William Boehly

National Highway TrafficSafety Administration

Mark DelucchiInstitute for Transportation

StudiesUniversity of California, Davis

Kevin Dopart

Office of TechnologyAssessment

Michael EpsteinU.S. Council for Automotive

Research

Barry Felrice

National Highway Traffic

Safety Administration

Kenneth FreemanOffice of Technology

Assessment

Michael GageCALSTART

John GullyAdvanced Research Projects

Agency

Elizabeth GunnOffice of Technology

Assessment

S. YousefHashimiOffice of Technology

Assessment

A. Hayasaka

Toyota

Daniel A. KirschStanford University

Paul KomorOffice of Technology

Assessment

Adrian LundInsurance Institute for

Highway Safety

Joan OgdenCenter for Energy and

Environmental StudiesPrinceton University

ReviewersPhilip PattersonU.S. Department of Energy

H. PeroEuropean Commission

M. SalmonGeneral Motors Corp.

Ray SmithLawrence Livermore National

Laboratory

Rao ValisettyALCOA

Robert WilliamsCenter for Energy andEnvironmental Studies

Princeton University

Robert WhiteU.S. General Accounting

Office

Ronald YorkGeneral Motors Corp.

Karl-Heinz ZiwicaBMW

Kathleen Fulton

Office of TechnologyAssessment

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workshop Participants

Nabih Bedewi

National Crash Analysis OfficeCenterGeorge Washington University

Kennerly DiggesNational Crash Analysis Office

CenterGeorge Washington University

Leonard EvansGeneral Motors NAO, R&D

Center

Automotive Safety and HealthResearch

Charming Ewing

Snell Memorial Foundation

Thomas HartmanAutomotive Technology

ALCOA

John MelvinGeneral Motors NAO, R&D

Center

Automotive Safety and Health

Research

Patrick M. MillerMGA Research Corp.

Brian ONeill

Insurance Institute forHighway Safety

George ParkerNational Highway Traffic

Safety Administration

U.S. Department of

Transportation

Priya PrasadDepartment of Advanced

Vehicle Systems Engineering

Ford Motor Co.

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Tom AsmusChrysler Corp.

Jeff BentleyArthur D. Little, Inc.

Christopher E. Borroni-BirdChrysler Corp.

Rolf BuchheimVolkswagen AG

Andrew F. Burke

University of California atDavisInstitute of Transportation

Studies

Alan CocconiAC Propulsion, Inc.

Kenneth DircksBallard Power Systems

Robert Fleming

Ballard Power Systems

Siegfried FriedmannBMW AG

Thomas KlaiberDaimler Benz AG

James F. MillerArgonne National Laboratory

Timothy MooreRock Mountain Institute

Larry Oswald

General Motors

Harold PolzMercedes Benz

Charles RischPartnership for a New

Generation of VehiclesFord Motor Co.

Marc RossUniversity of Michigan

Ray SmithLawrence Livermore National

Laboratory

Al SobeyIndependent Consultant

Ro SullivanU.S. Department of Energy

Raymond A. SutulaU.S. Department of Energy

David SwanUniversity of CA at DavisInstitute of Transportation

Studies

Swathy SwathirajanGeneral Motors

Donald VissersArgonne National Laboratory

Ronald E. York

General Motors
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Chapter 1Executive Summary

OTAS APPROACH . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

OTAS METHODS

4

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5

DEALING WITH UNCERTAINTY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .6

OVERVIEW OF RESULTS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .7

Technical Potential . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .7

Commercialization Potential . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8

Timing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9

DETAILED RESULTS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .9

Business as Usual . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10

Advanced Conventional . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10

Electric Vehicles . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .11

Hybrid-Electric Vehicles . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13

Fuel Cell Vehicles . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .15

PERFORMANCE AND COST OF OTHER TYPES OF LIGHT-DUTY VEHICLES . . . . . . . . 17LIFECYCLE COSTS--WILL THEY OFFSET HIGHER PURCHASE PRICES?.............. 17

EMISSIONS PERFORMANCE. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

19

SAFETY OF LIGHTWEIGHT VEHICLES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21

A NOTE ABOUT COSTS AND PRICES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .22

CONCLUSIONS ABOUT TECHNOLOGY COST AND PERFORMANCE...... . . . . . . . . . . 23THE FEDERAL ROLE IN ADVANCED AUTO R&D . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

24

Partnership for a New Generation of Vehicles . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25

U.S. COMPETITIVE POSITION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .25

Leapfrog Technologies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .26

Advanced Conventional Technology= . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .26

U.S. R&D PROGRAM . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .27

Key Budgetary Changes in FY 1996 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27

R&D Areas Likely to Require Increased Support in the Future . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28

Future Role of Federal R&D Programs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30Conclusions ABOUT R&D . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

32

Boxl-1:Box1-2:Box1-3:Box1-4:Box1-5:

Table l-1

Table l-2:Table l-3:Table l-4:Table l-5:

Reducing Tractive Forces . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ..............34

Spark Ignition and Diesel Engines . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36

Battery Technologies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38

Nonbattery Energy Storage: Ultracapacitors and Flywheels . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39

Series and Parallel Hybrids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40

What Happens to a Mid-Size Car in 2005? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .41

What Happens to a Mid-Size Car in 2015?. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42

Annual Fuel Costs for Alternative Vehicles . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43

PNGV-Related FY 1995 Appropriations by Technical Area and Agency . . . . . . . . . . . 44PNGV Budgetary Changes in FY 1996 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

45

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Chapter 2Introduction and Context

FORCES FOR INNOVATION. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .46

CONGRESSIONAL CONCERNS. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .47

NATURE OF THE TECHNOLOGY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .48

DEALING WITH UNCERTAINTY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .49

STRUCTURE OF THE REPORT. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .50

Box2-1:Box2-2:Box2-3:Box2-4:

Counterpoint Forces Against Rapid Technological Change . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .52

Energy Security, Economic Concerns, and Light-Duty Vehicle Fuel Use. . . . . . . . . . . . 53Greenhouse Emissions and Light-Duty Vehicles . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .55

Air Quality Considerations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .56 .

Chapter3

Technologies for Advanced Vehicles Performance and Cost Expectations

WEIGHT REDUCTION WITH ADVANCED MATERIALS AND BETTER DESIGN . . . . . . 60Vehicle Design Constraints . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

61

Materials Selection Criteria . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .62

Manufacturability and Cost . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .62

Manufacturing costs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .63

Life Cycle Costs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .63

Manufacturability . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .64

Performance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .65

Weight . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .66

Safety . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .67

Recyclability . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .68Future Scenarios of Materials Use in Light Duty Vehicles . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

69

2005--Advanced Conventional . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .70

2005-Optimistic . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .70

2015-Advanced Conventional . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .71

2015--Optimistic . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .72

Conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .73

AERODYNAMIC REDUCTION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .74

Drag Reduction Potential . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .75

Effect of Advanced Aerodynamics on Vehicle Prices. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ..76ROLLING RESISTANCE REDUCTION. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

77

Background . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .77

Potential for Rolling Resistance Improvement . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .78

Price Effects of Reduced Rolling Resistance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .79

IMPROVEMENTS TO SPARK IGNITION ENGINES. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .80

Overview . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .80

Increasing Thermodynamic Efficiency . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .81

Spark timing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .81

Faster Combustion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .81

Increased compression ratios . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .81

Reducing Mechanical Friction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .82

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Rolling contacts and lighter valvetrain . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 82Fewer-rings.............:...... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .................82Lighter pistons . . . . . . . . q . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 83Coatings . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 83Improved oil pump . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 83Lubricants . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 83

Reducing Pumping Loss . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 84Intake manifold design . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 84

Multiple valves . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 84Lean-burn . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 85Variable valve timing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 85Total effect . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 86

DISC and Two-Stroke Engines . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 86Two-stroke engines . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .87

Summary of Engine Technology Benefits . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .88Lean-No X Catalysts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .88Price Effects of Engine Improvements and Advanced Engines . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .89

DIESEL ENGINES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .90Background . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .90

Performance of New Diesel Engines . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ....91Prospects for the Diesel in the United States . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .93Variable geometry turbocharging . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .94The four-valve head/central injector . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .94Improved fuel infection . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .94Optimized exhaust gas recirculation (EGR) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .94

Direct Injection Diesel Price Effect . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .95ELECTRIC DRIVETRAIN TECHNOLOGIES. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .96

Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .96Battery Technology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .97

Requirements . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .97Battery Characteristics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .99

Lead acid . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .99Alkaline Systems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .99High-temperature batteries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .101Lithium-Ion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .102Solid electrolyte batteries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .102

Bringing an Advanced Battery to Market . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .103Hybrid Batteries and High Power Requirements . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 105

Fuel Cell Technology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 105Aluminum-Air and Zinc-Air Cells . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 105PEM Fuel Cells . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 106Methanol Fuel Cells . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 111

Ultracapacitors and Flywheels . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .111Electric Motors-

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .114

OTHER ENGINE AND FUEL TECHNOLOGIES. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .118Overview . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 118

Hydrogen . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .119Gas Turbine Engines . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .121

StirlingEngines - . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .123Waste Heat Recovery . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .124

IMPROVEMENTS TO AUTOMATIC TRANSMISSIONS. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .125Torque converter improvements . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .126

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Greater number of gears ... ... ... ..................0"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""" 126

Electronic transmission control (ETC) . ........................ 128

Prices . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .129

Box3-1: Box Fuel Cell Use in Urban Buses . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .130

Box3-2: Arguments in Favor of an Inexpensive PEM Fuel Cell . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .131

Table 3-1:Table 3-2:

Table 3-3:Table 3-4:Table 3-5:


Table 3-8:Table 3-9:Table 3-10:Table 3-11:Table 3-12:Table 3-13:

Figure 3-1:Figure 3-2:Figure 3-3:Figure3-4:

Figure 3-5:

Lightweight Materials: Relative Component Costs and Weight Savings.- ..... 133

Mechanical properties of Some Alternative AutomotiveStructural Materials . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .134

Weight Distribution in tie Ford Taurus (circa 1990) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .135

Manufacturers Projection of Potential Improvements in Light-Truck CD........ 136Summary of Long-Term Fuel Efficiency Benefits

from Advanced Technology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .137

Estimated RPEs for DISC Engines . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .138

Retail Price Effects for Friction Reduction Componentsin Four-Valve Engines . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .139

Fuel Consumption/Economy Benefits of Diesel EnginesRelative to Gasoline Engines . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .140Fuel Economy Comparison at Equal Performance: Gasoline vs. Diesel...........141U.S. Advanced Battery Consortium Battery Development Goals............ ..142Battery Technology ... ... ... ... ... .*. ... ..*. *""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""

143

Current State-of-the-Art for Batteries ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... . .*$""""""""""""""""""""""""144

Subjective Rating of Different Motors for EV Use . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .145

Examples of Highly Aerodynamic Cars . ..............................""""""""""""""""""146

Design Features of Toyota AXV-V ... .. .........................""""""""""""""""""""""""147

Development of Diesel Market Share in Germany . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .148

Lithium Battery Technology: Lithium-polymer Electrolyte Battery .......... = 149

Efficiency of Induction Motor and Controller . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .150

Chapter 4

Advanced Vehicles - Technical Potential and Costs

OTAs Methodology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .152

Types of Vehicles Examined . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .153

Vehicle Attributes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .154

Technologies Introduced Individually or in Combination . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .156

Uncertainty in Technology Forecasting . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .156

ENERGY USE AND REDUCTION IN LIGHT-DUTY VEHICLES. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .157

BASELINE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .159

ADVANCED CONVENTIONAL VEHICLES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .161

ELECTRIC VEHICLES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .164

Emission Effects . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .171

HYBRID VEHICLES. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .174

Series Hybrids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .176

Emissions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .182

Other Studies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .183

Parallel Hybrids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .185

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Prices . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 187FUEL CELL VEHICLES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 188CONCLUSIONS ABOUT PERFORMANCE AND PURCHASE PRICE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 190LIFECYCLE COSTS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 191

Battery Replacement Costs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 192Differences in Maintenance Costs and Longevity Between EV and ICE Drivetrains 193Trade-In Value . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 194Energy Costs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 195

Conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .195SAFETY OF LIGHTWEIGHT VEHICLES. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .196

The Role of Weight in Accident prevention and Crashworthiness . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ...... 197What Accident Statistics Tell Us . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .199Design Solutions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .200Additional Issues q . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .201

Box4-1: Four Weight Reduction Scenarios for a Mid-Size Car . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 203Box4-2: Calculating the Fuel Economy Effects of Converting a Taurus to a

Table 4-1:

Table 4-2:Table 4-3:Table 4-4:Table 4-5:Table 4-6:Table 4-7:Table 4-8:Table 4-9:Table 4-10:Table 4-11:


Table 4-14:Table 4-15:Table 4-16:Table 4-17:

Figure 4-1:

Figure 4-2:Figure 4-3:

Series Hybrid With Flexible Engine Operation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .204

Forecast of Advanced Technology Penetration in the Base Case(Percentage of new vehicle fleet) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .205

Forecast of Vehicle Characteristics: Baseline Scenario . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2062015 Best-in-Class Mid-size Car Baseline Scenario . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .207Hypothetical Mid-size Car with Advanced Technology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .208Conventional Vehicle Potential Best-in-Class . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .209Specifications of Some Advanced Electric Vehicles . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2102005 Electric Vehicle Characteristics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .211Computation of Incremental Costs and RPE for 2005 Mid-Size EM.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2122015 Electric Vehicle Characteristics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .213

Sensitivity of Mid-size 2005 EV Attributes to Input Assumptions ................214Energy Use for a Current (1995) Mid-size Car Converted to a

Hybrid Electric Vehicle (kWh) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .215Series Hybrid Vehicle Efficiency . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .216Comparison Between OTA and SIMPLEV Model Calculations

of Hybrid Fuel Economy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .217Potential Parallel Hybrid Configurations for 1995 Mid-size Vehicle . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 218Incremental Prices for Series Hybrids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .219Characteristics of a PEM Fuel Cell Intermediate-Size Vehicle in 2015..........220Fuel Consumption and Annual Fuel Costs of Advanced Mid-size Vehicles . . . . . 221

Losses Within the Overall Energy Chain . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .222

Battery Weight vs. EV Range . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .223Hybrid Concepts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .224

Chapter 5Advanced Automotive R&D Programs: An International Comparison

AUTOMOTIVE R&D . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 226

Collaborative R&D . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 227

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SCOPE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .227THE FEDERAL ROLE IN ADVANCED VEHICLE R&D:

A HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE-- 197O-1995 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .228Reduced Oil Use . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .228Air Quality . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .228Perspectives on the Federal Role . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .229Partnership for a New Generation of Vehicles . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .230

OVERVIEW OF MAJOR ADVANCED AUTOMOTIVE R&D PROGRAMS ................231United States . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .231Major Automotive R&D Programs in Federal Agencies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .232

Department of Commerce(DOC) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .232Department of Defense . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .232Department of Energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .234Department of Interior (DOI) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .238Department of Transportation(DOT) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .238Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .239National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). . . . . . . . . . ........ 239National Science Foundation (NSF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .240

Collaborative Private-Sector R&D Activities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .240

United States Council for Automotive Research (USCAR)................240Utilities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .241

European Union . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .242France . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .243

Government-Funded Programs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .244Industry R&D . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .244

Germany . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .245Government-Funded Programs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .245Industry R&D . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .245

Sweden . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .246Government-Funded R&D

.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .246

Industry R&D . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .247Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .247Government-Funded R&D . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .247Industry R&D . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .248

ANALYSIS OF ADVANCED AUTOMOTIVE R&D PROGRAMS. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .249U.S. Competitive Status in Advanced Automotive Technologies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ..249

Leapfrog Technologies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .249Advanced Conventional Technology= . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .250

U.S. R&D Program . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .251Key Budgetary Changes in FY 1996 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .251

R&D Areas Likely to Require Increased Support . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .252Safety . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .252

Infrastructure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .253Standards . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .254Life Cycle Materials Flows . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .255

Future Role of Federal R&D Programs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .255Conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .258

Box5-1: DOEs Electric and Hybrid Vehicle Program . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .260Box5-2: The Partnership for a New Generation of Vehicles(PNGV) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .261Box5-3: Federal Spending on Advanced Auto R&D . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .262

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Table 5-1: Key Legislation Affecting Automotive Research and Development.................263Table 5-2: PNGV-Related FY 1995 Appropriations by Technical Area

and Agency ($ millions) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 265Table 5-3: Regional R&D Consortia Supported by the Advanced Research

Projects Agency (ARPA) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 266Table 5-4: Government-Funded Advanced Automotive R&D in Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 267Table 5-5: PNGV Budgetary Changes in FY 1996 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 268

Figure 5-1: DOE Electric and Hybrid Vehicle Program Budget History, FY 1976-95.......269

Appendix AMethod for Evaluating Vehicle Performance

ENERGY CONSUMPTION IN CONVENTIONAL AUTOMOBILES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 270PERFORMANCE, EMISSIONS, AND FUEL ECONOMY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 273ELECTRIC VEHICLES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 275

HYBRID VEHICLES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 280Series Hybrids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 280

Table A-la:

Table A-lb:Table A-2:Table A-3:Table A-4:Table A-5:

Figure A-1:Figure A-2:Figure A-3:Figure A-4:Figure A-5:

Energy Consumption as a Percent of Total Energy Requirementsfor a Mid-size Car . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .285

Energy Consumption for a Mid-size Car Consumption in kWh/mile. . . . . . . . . . . . 286Specifications of Some Advanced Electric Vehicles . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .287Engine and Accessory Weights (lbs) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .288Equations for Deriving HEV Weight . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .289Energy Use for a Current (1995) Mid-size Car Converted

to an HEV (kWh) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .290

Energy Distribution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .291Energy Flows, AVCAR 93, EPA Composite Cycle. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .292Vehicle Performance vs. Fuel Economy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .293Fuel Economy vs. Performance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .294Battery Weight vs. EV Range . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .295

Appendix BMethodology: Technology Price Estimates

METHODOLOGY TO DERIVE RPE FROM COSTS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 297

Table B-1: Costing Methodology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 300

Table B-2: Methodology to Convert Variable and Fixed Cost to RPE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 301

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Chapter 1

Executive Summary

The automobile has come to symbolize the essence of a modern industrial society. Perhapsmore than any other single icon, it is associated with a desire for independence and freedom of

movement; it is an expression of economic status and personal style. Automobile production isalso critically important to the major industrial economies of the world. In the United States, forinstance, about 5 percent of all workers are employed directly (including fuel production anddistribution) by the auto industry.1 Technological change in the auto industry can potentiallyinfluence not only the kinds of cars that are driven, but also the health of the economy.

The automobile is also associated with many of the ills of a modern industrial society.Automotive emissions of hydrocarbons and nitrogen oxides are responsible for as much as 50percent of ozone in urban areas; despite improvements in air quality forced by governmentregulations, 50 million Americans still live in counties with unsafe ozone levels.3 Automobiles arealso responsible for 37 percent of U.S. oil consumption,4 in an era when U.S. dependence on

imported oil is more than 50 percents

and still increasing. A concern related to automotivegasoline consumption is the emission of greenhouse gases, principally carbon dioxide, which maybe linked to global climate change. The automobile fleet, which accounts for 15 percent of theU.S. annual total, is one of this countrys single largest emitters of carbon dioxide. 6

Recent technological improvements to engines and vehicle designs have begun to address these

problems, at least at the level of the individual vehicle. Driven by government regulation and thegasoline price increases of the 1970s, new car fuel economy has doubled between 1972 andtoday,

7and individual vehicle emissions have been reduced substantially.

8Several trends have

undercut a portion of these gains, however, with the result that the negative impacts ofautomobiles are expected to continue.

An important trend has been a 40 percent drop in the real price of gasoline since its peak in1981.9 This decline has reduced the attractiveness of fuel-efficient automobiles for consumers and

1 American Automobile Manufacturers Association, Facts and Figures 94 (Detroit, MI: 1994), p. 70. The number of workers employed by the

industry is somewhat controversial because there are several alternative interpretations about which workers are in this category, and some of the datfor specific sectors does not separate out automotive and nonautomotive workers, e.g. workers in petroleum refining. The value here includes motorvehicle and equipment manufacturing (which inadvertently includes workers making heavy trucks), road construction and maintenance workers,

petroleum refining and distribution, auto sales and servicing taxicab employees, car leasing, and auto parking.2

Here and afterwards automotive refers to automobiles and light trucks primarily used for passenger travelvans, sport-utility vehicles, and

pickup trucks. These vehicles use half of all the oil consumed by the U.S. transportation sector.3u.s. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, National Air Quality and Emissions Trends Report,

1993, EPA-450/R-94-026 (Research Triangle Park, NC: October 1994).4 U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration, An nu al En er gy Ou tl oo k, 1995, DOE/EIA-0383(95) (Washington, DC:

January 1995), tables A7 and Al 1.5 For example, imports were 54 percent of total supply in August, 1994. U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration, Monthly

Energy Review, DOE/EIA-0035(94/09)(Washington, DC: September 1994).6Energy Information Administration, see footnote 4, table A18.7S.C. Davis, Transportation Energy Data Book: Edition 14, ORNL-6798 (Oak Ridge, TN: Oak Ridge National Laboratory May 1994), table. .

3.35 and earlier editions.8 The federal Tier 1 emissions standards represent emission reductions of about 97, 96, and 89 percent, respectively, from uncontrolled levels of

hydrocarbons, carbon monoxide, and nitrogen oxides. Actual on-road reductions are not this high, however.9 Davis, see footnote 7, table 2.16.

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encouraged more driving; vehicle-miles traveled (VMT) have been increasing at 3 percent peryear.

l0Expanding personal income

11has meant that more new vehicles (especially less fuel

efficient light trucks and vans) are being added to the fleet; there were approximately 15.1 millionnew light-duty vehicles purchased in 1994.12 With more drivers and expected increases inindividual travel demand, automotive oil consumption and carbon dioxide emissions are expectedto increase by 18 percent from 1993 to 2010, 13 when U.S. oil imports are expected to reach 64

percent.14

Although highway vehicle emissions have been dropping and air quality improving,15

the rates of improvement have been slowed greatly by the increase in travel. Similar trends inautomobile purchasing and use are occurring in other industrialized countries, even with motorfuel prices far higher than those in the United States, and the problems will be compounded asdeveloping countries such as China continue to industrialize and expand their use of automobiles.

With these trends as background, it is clear that a major advance in automotive technology thatcould dramatically reduce gasoline consumption and emissions would have great national andinternational benefits. Such benefits would include not only the direct cost savings from reducedoil imports (each 10 percent drop in oil imports would save about $10 billion in 2010 16), but alsoindirect savings such as:

health benefits of reducing urban ozone concentrations, nowper year;

17

an insurance policy against sudden oil price shocks orestimated to cost $6 billion to $9 billion per year; l8

estimated to cost $0.5 billion to $4 billion

political blackmail, the risk of which is

reduced military costs of maintaining energy security, which according to some estimates costs theUnited States approximately $0.5 billion to $50 billion per year;19

potential savings from reduced oil prices resulting from decreased oil demand, conceivably tens ofbillions of dollars per year to the U.S. economy, and more to other oil-consuming economies; and

10

Ibid, table 3.2.11

More precisely, higher personal income for the income segments who are most likely to purchase new automobiles. Average personal income

has not risen.12

Automotive News, "1995 Market Data Book," May 24, 1995, p. 20.13

For light-duty vehicles. Energy Information Administration, see footnote 4, table A7.14

Ibid, table Al.15

For example, highway vehicle emissions of volatile organic compounds dropped by 45 percent and carbon monoxide by 32 percent between

1980 and 1993. During the same period nitrogen oxide highway vehicle emissions dropped by 15 percent. Ozone air quality standards attainment

has fluctuated with weather, but has clearly been improving over the past 10 years, and carbon monoxide attainment has improved dramatically, with aseveral-fold drop in the number of people living in nonattainment areas. Council on Environmental Quality, Environmental Quality: The Twenty-

Fourth Annual Report of the Council on Environmental Quality (Washington, DC: 1995) pp. 435,447.16

At $24/bbl

advanced automotive technologies

Documents