adaptation lessons from the pacific region
TRANSCRIPT
Image:NASA
ProfBrendanMackey,DirectorGriffithClimateChangeResponseProgram
(email)[email protected]
AdaptationlessonsfromthePacificRegion
KeyLesson1
Adaptationdemandsanintegration&synthesisofmulti-disciplinaryapproaches
Coastaldynamics
Social&PolicyAnalysis
RiskAssessment
Micro-economics
Climatechange&Ecosystems
Multidisciplinaryresearchneeddisciplinaryexperts
A“table”wherewecan
meet
…andresidentintegratorswhostay
“atthetable”
KeyLesson2
Adaptationmustbeundertakeninthecontextofsustainabledevelopment
PacificRegionhas23SIDS
Area - 12, 189 km2Population - ~276,000
GDP 773.5 millionUSD(2016)RankedbyWorldBankas183poorestinlistof195countries
Theeconomy basedprimarilyon:• Subsistenceorsmall-scaleagriculture,• Fishing,offshorefinancialservices,and
tourism• Mineraldepositsarenegligible• Noknownpetroleumdeposits
(Source:VanuatuGovernment)
Sustainablelivelihoods&subsistenceeconomyarecentraltocommunityresilience&well-being
KeyLesson3
Direct,indirect&compoundclimate-relatedhazardsmustbemodelled
dynamicallyandatmultiplescales,despitethelackofdata
Imagessources:IPCC;NYT;Wikipedia;ABC;NOAA;Bom
Alteredoceancurrents
Multi-scaled,interactingprocessesIncreasedwaveheights
Assuminglinear
responsesonly
Risingsealevels
Coastalinundation&
erosion
Increasingfrequencyand/orintensityofextremeweatherevents
Watershedlandcover
Impacts&exposureareafunctionoftime&place
SeaLevelRiseSpatialTrend:SatelliteAltimetryData
Source:Meyssignac andCazenave,2012,
Current&futuretemperature
Regionalmodel (1Feb to 14Mar2015)predicts 16mwaves offTanna
HYCOMwaterspeed(m
/s)
14-Mar-2015(CyclonePam)
SurfaceVelocity(top2m)
(m/s)
Cyclonicimpactsoncoastalwavesamajorhazard
PortResolution
But,needtocapturelocalfeatures&dynamics
Tidalgaugeshows~2mstormsurge
Windrepresentedwitharrows&waveheightwithcolors
Log10(Hs)
Featurestobemodelled:1-Tides,2-WaterSpeed,3-Salinity,4-Temperature,5-Waterdensity,6-Waves,7-Sedimentdynamics,8-TransportTimescalesofwaterproperties.
Significantwaveheight
UsingFVCOMandSLIM
PortResolutionBaySimulationModel,TannaIsland
KeyLesson4
Cost-BenefitAnalysisofofadaptationoptionsmustincludevaluationof
ecosystemservicebenefits&recognizeKastom values(“somethingsarenotfor
sale”)
Coastal ecosystemrisk analysis showingfour risk indicatorsmapped in fourcategorie
EstimateofannualmonetaryvalueofecosystemserviceflowsperecosystemtypeforTanna
Coastalcoral
Coastalseagrass
Coastalmangrove
Freshwaterwetlands
Freshwaterwetlands
Tropicalforest Grassland Total
Total(2015US$) 202,254,921 0 0 0 975,737 44,889,140 2,353,854 250.5 million
VanuatuGDP773.5 million
Kastom valuenotmoniterizable
KeyLesson5
Keyconcepts&approachesforoperationalizingIPCCRiskAssessmentFrameworkincludeSocio-ecologicalsystems&BayesianNetworkModels
Vulnerability*Sensitivity*AdaptiveCapacity
Hazards*Climatic&Non-
climatic
Risk
Exposure*Space/Time
Adaptationinterventionsaimtomanagerisksbyreducingthevulnerability and/orexposureofcommunities,builtassets,andsocio-ecologicalsystemstothe
impactsofclimatic-relatedhazards
RiskAssessmentFrameworkforAdaptationInterventions
Tanna’s Socio-EcologicalSystems
KeyLesson6
Adaptationinterventionscanbeathreateningprocess
Coastalzoneisthefocusofcapitalintensivebuiltinfrastructureesp.fortourism
Protectingnaturalecosystems
• Conservation• Sustainableuse…
• Mangroves• Coralreefs• Estuaries
Adaptationthrough:
AspectrumofadaptationinterventionsavailableGradientindegreeofhumanintervention
Workingwithnaturalprocesses
• Sandaccretion&erosion
• Beachreplenishment• Artificialreefs…
Adaptationthrough:
Constructingcapitalworks
• Verticalconcreteseawalls
• Rockwalls…
• Interruptnaturalprocesses
Adaptationthrough:
Imagesource:MainichiShimbun,viaReuters
Astruggleemergingbetweenecosystem-basedapproaches&hardengineeredinterventions
Factorsthatpromotecapitalworksoverecosystem-basedadaptation:
• Acceptedcoastaldefence&acommonpost-disasterresponsethroughoutdonorcountrieso ~50%Europe’scoastisconcretesea
wallo ThegreatJapaneseseawall
• ‘Ribbon-cutting’opportunities
• EaseofM&Eandprojectaccountability
• Legalconcernssuchasvicariousliability
ForPacificSIDS,maladaptationthreatenscoastalecosystemintegrity&communityresilience