Accelerating progress to end hunger and undernutrition in Africa

Rajul Pandya-LorchChief of Staff, Director General’s Office, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)

T u r k e y - A f r i c a 1 s t A g r i c u l t u r e M i n i s t e r s M e e t i n g a n d A g r i b u s i n e s s F o r u m

A n t a l y a , T u r k e y | A p r i l 2 7 , 2 0 1 7

Overview

• Despite progress, hunger and undernutrition persist in Africa

• Africa faces challenges for sustainably ensuring food security and good nutrition

• Compact2025 is designed to help countries accelerate progress

Hunger and undernutrition persist in Africa

18.6

47.2

33.5

24.2

10.9

31.5

41.3

9.6

0

10

20

30

40

50

World East Africa Central Africa West Africa

1990-92

2014-16

Prevalence of undernourishment (%)

Source: FAO 2015

Pregnant women

anemia

Source: HarvestPlus 2011

Prevalence of micronutrient deficiencies

60%

Child iron

deficiency

Africa

68%

0

20

40

60

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2014

Stunting

Underweight

20%

36%

Prevalence of child undernutrition

in Africa south of the Sahara (%)

Malnutrition is costly

Malnutrition (annually)

Global: US$3.5 trillion

Africa: US$ 25 billion

Undernutrition

Ethiopia: US$ 4.7 billion (2009)

Swaziland: US$ 92 mil.

lost in worker productivity

Source: Adapted from 2016 Global Nutrition Report

Source: FAO 2013; UNICEF 2013; WHO

2014; McKinsey Report 2014

At the same time, poverty and youth unemployment

are high in AfricaPrevalence of poverty in Africa and select

countries, 1989-2012 (US $1.90/day, 2011 PPP), (%)

Source: World Bank 2015

0

20

40

60

80

100

1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009

Zambia

Niger

Uganda

Cote d’Ivoire

64%

50%

33%29%

43% (SSA)

13% (World)

14.1

10.3

11.6

14

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

SSA South Asia East Asia &Pacific

LAC

Prevalence of youth

unemployment (15-24) 2014 (%)

Challenges to feeding Africa healthily and sustainably

Emerging middle class, changing demographics, and

growing urbanization in Africa

2.7

1.2

SSA World

0

1

2

3

2000 2025 2050

Urban Rural

Africa: With current TFP, only 25% of food demand can be met in 2030

Urban and rural populations by region, SSA

(billions)

Source: Data from UN 2016

Source: GAP Report 2013

55%

Percent of population ages 0-14 2015

Population growth rates 2010-15

43

26

SSA World

Climate vulnerability and impacts on agriculture

Source: Adapted from CCAFS 2014

Vulnerability index of food system to climate-related hazards, 2010

Vulnerability measured as

• Exposure to climate-related hazards

• Sensitivity of national agricultural production to climate-related

hazards

• Adaptive capacity: Measure of capacity to cope with climate-

related food shocks

Regional-level effects by 2050

North Africa

• Broadest range of impacts

• Positive yield changes for roots and tubers

• Extremely negative impact on rainfed oilseed production

West, central, and south Africa

• Consistently negative yield impacts across all crops

East Africa

• Potential to positive yield impacts in roots, tubers, pulses

Persistent conflicts

• Food insecurity and lack of nutrition are cause and consequence of conflict

• % of hunger and undernutrition increasingly concentrated in conflict-affected countries

• Climate change, epidemics, and food price spikes increase risk of civil conflict

Source: Breisinger, Ecker and Trinh Tran 2015

Cross-country correlation between Global Hunger Index and violent civil conflict index, Africa

Source: Ecker 2014

Structural transformation is happening, but more is

needed

Decomposition of productivity growth

Source: McMillan and Harttgen 2014, ReSAKSS 2014, World Bank 2015

1990-1999 2000-2005

Productivity growth

within sectors

Productivity growth due

to structural change

Industrialization in Africa has been weak & contributed little to recent growth—more value addition is needed:

– SSA: 13% of GDP from natural resource rents– World: 4% of GDP from natural resource rents

Government agric. expenditure

(% of total expenditure, 1980-2013)

Source: ReSAKSS 2017

Agriculture, value added in SSA

(% of annual growth, 1980-2013)

Agricultural spending remains low

Source: ASTI 2016

Steady decline: 0.59 to .51 percent from 2006-20110

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

19

80

19

82

19

84

19

86

19

88

19

90

19

92

19

94

19

96

19

98

20

00

20

02

20

04

20

06

20

08

20

10

20

12

20

14

Africa wide

Western Africa

Southern Africa

Northern Africa

Eastern Africa

Central Africa

Compact2025: An initiative to end hunger and undernutrition

Compact2025’s approaches for accelerating progress

Engaging countries Stimulating knowledge and innovation

I N N O V A T I O N L A B

S Y N T H E S I S

C O M M U N I C A T I O N S

D A T A , T R A C K I N G , A N D M O N I T O R I N G

K N O W L E D G E &I N N O V A T I O N

H U B

Supporting initiatives and partnerships

Compact2025: evidence-based support

National initiatives, regional commitments (African Union),

international partnerships (SUN), global goals (SDGs), and others

Compact2025 assists countries to refine and implement their road maps for action toward ending hunger and undernutrition—strategies from some successful countries focus on smallholder agriculture, social

protection, nutrition interventions, WASH, and women’s empowerment

Rwanda

Roundtable discussions: Convening stakeholders to

accelerate progress

MalawiEthiopia

BangladeshCommon themes

• High level attendance and participation• Prime Minister of Rwanda

• Deputy Prime Minister of Ethiopia

• Vice President of Malawi

• Economic Affairs Adviser to the Prime Minister of Bangladesh

• Multistakeholder and multisectoralrepresentation• Government, development partners, NGOs,

private sector, research institutes and others

• Agriculture, health, nutrition, social protection, education, gender and other sectors

Cross-cutting recommendations• Make strategies, policies, and programs more nutrition-driven

• Improve coordination and accountability

• Enhance and implement policies and scale-up successful programs

• Strengthen capacity

• Fill data and knowledge gaps

Outputs• 4 country scoping reports

• Synthesis report

Roundtable discussion results

Selected country-specific recommendations from the

roundtable discussions

Rwanda

• Enhance successful policies and programs

• E.g. One Cow per Family

• Communicate and advocate for better nutritional outcomes

Bangladesh

• Make strategies, policies, and programs more nutrition-driven

• E.g. Agriculture for nutrition, not self-sufficiency

• Empower women, smallholders, and consumers

Ethiopia

• Fill data and knowledge gaps

• Gender-disaggregated data, BCC, upgraded knowledge management systems

• Enhance implementation and scale-up of programs

Malawi

• Build greater accountability and improve coordination

• “Break the cycle” with holistic, transparent, and market-driven approaches

Stimulating knowledge and innovation

Catalyze innovation

• Experimenting with out-of-the-box ideas

Generate knowledge

• Nourishing Millions

• Website with curated resources

• Newsletter

Engage stakeholders

• Roundtable dialogues

Monitor progress

• Global Nutrition Report, Global Hunger Index, Global Food Policy Report

Key lessons

• Multisectoral nature of nutrition now well understood, but operationalizing such knowledge is more challenging

• Validation of UNICEF/Lancet frameworks (food, health and care are all key – and synergies are possible in addressing all drivers)

• Nutrition-specific interventions can make inroads if designed, targeted and implemented in contextually appropriate ways, but addressing structural and underlying drivers is paramount in long term

• Enabling environments need to be created, sustained and they need to progressively take on board the double burden

• Commitment needs to be translated into action through focus on data, accountability, leadership (at all levels), capacity and sustained financing

Plans for 2017

• Hold Compact20205 Focal Country Forums

• Establish Compact2025 Country Hubs to help monitor progress, promote learning, advise on policy, and enhance coordination and accountability

• Strengthen networks with country partners, including SUN, CARE, etc.

• Explore adding two Focal Countries

• Further develop the Global Knowledge and Innovation Hub

• Keep fundraising high on the agenda

Compact2025:A global partnership to

accelerate progress

For more information, contact

Shenggen Fan, Director General, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), s.fan@cgiar.org

Rajul Pandya-Lorch, Chief of Staff, IFPRI, r.pandya-lorch@cgiar.org

Teunis van Rheenen Head of Partnerships and Business Development, IFPRI, t.vanrheenen@cgiar.org