a nexus approach for sustainable intensification holger hoff, huiyi chen, guoyi han stockholm...
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A Nexus Approach for Sustainable Intensification
Holger Hoff, Huiyi Chen, Guoyi Han
Stockholm Environment InstitutePotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
CEWP Nexus Workshop WWW 3 September 2013
Outline:
What is the nexus?
Why do we need a nexus approach?
How to implement it?
Where to implement it – examples
The Ningxia case
What is the nexus?
previous examples of integrated approaches-ecosystem approaches (CBD)-integrated water resources management (GWP)-integrated pest management-multi-functional systems (IAASTD), e.g. crop-livestock systems-ecological sanitation
The nexus refers to integrated or systemic approaches across sectors:
generating co-benefits and increasing productivities across resources , mobilizing untapped potentials, e.g. via recycling, cascading use of resources, improved land configurations etc.
BUT: these approaches have been sectoral, lessons have not been learned,upscaling and transfer is missing
Why do we need a nexus approach?
a resource constrained and environmentally limited world:growing demand for biomass (food, feed, fibres, fuel….) & natural resources
ecosystem degradation & climate change add pressurerisk of transgressing critical thresholds, across scales from local sustainability boundaries to planetary boundaries
sustainable intensification (not another „green revolution“)
for economic development today, without compromising future food, water, and energy security, diversity and resilience
-> do the Chinese Red Lines also pose critical thresholds?
How to implement a nexus approach?
start from nexus assessments: resource availabilities & productivitiestoday & future
toolbox e.g. WEAP (water), LEAP (energy), AEZ (land)
entry points for mainstreaming nexus principles into new (water, agricultural, energy, climate and other) strategies and plans
nexus solutions, reducing losses & increasing synergies, win-winse.g. ecosystems as natural infrastructure, conservation agriculture
economic incentives for reducing negative externalities across resources, sectors and regions, e.g. payments for environmental services
partnerships between sectors, strengthen bridging institutions
Where to implement a nexus approach?
example upper Blue Nile:
entry points: Ethiopia‘s Growth and Transformation Plan, Climate Resilient Green Economy Strategy
improved landscapes for local and export production for food and biofuel,higher productivity, income, local food and energy security (e.g. bioethanol for cooking)
foreign direct investments for improved agricultural productivity
reconciling downstream water demands and upstream land (and water) development
Where to implement a nexus approach?
example MENA region:
integrating climate adaptation and mitigation
soil and water conservation for improved green water productivity and climate resilience
renewable energy for seawater desalination
guiding foreign direct investments (in Africa) for win-wins
Where to implement a nexus approach?
example Mauritius
sugarcane for ethanol / bioenergy production
Howells et al. 2013
example Ningxia
Where to implement a nexus approach?
rapidly increasing demand for food, energy etc.
natural resources, e.g. water, and ecosystems and their services are limited
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River
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Average 1987-2000
Average 1956-2000
climate change may add pressure
A nexus approach in Ningxia
forest
irrigation
grassland
steppe
forest/meadows
A nexus approach in Ningxia
What does the red line on water quantity (total withdrawal) indicate?
A sustainability boundary?
similar story for China as a whole
What does the red line on water quantity (total withdrawal) indicate?
A sustainability boundary?Liu et al. 2013
A nexus approach in Ningxia
How has that red line been defined? From projected food demands and water availability?
need for increasing water productivity, projected to accelerate according to red line
irrigation efficiency coefficient
similar story for China as a whole
Liu et al. 2013 How has that red line been defined? From projected food demands and water availability?
need for increasing water productivity, projected to continue according to red line
A nexus approach in Ningxia
assessing tradeoffs: is water sector planning consistent with land, ecosystem and energy planning?
how much land is required for biofuels?
how much more land is required for meeting the irrigation target ?
how much land is converted to forest (afforestation)?
A nexus approach in Ningxia
assessing tradeoffs: is water sector planning consistent with land, ecosystem and energy planning?
how does this increase in land demand affect other ecosystems, e.g. grasslands, and their ecosystem goods & services (e.g. livestock, carbon, biodiversity)?
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Land
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Cultivated land, woodland , grassland and afforestation this year
Cultivated land
Woodland
Grassland
Minimum cultivated land in 2013
Afforestation this year
A nexus approach in Ningxia
assessing tradeoffs: is water sector planning consistent with land, ecosystem and energy planning?
does the water red line account for aquatic ecosystems / environmental flows?
is it consistent with the objectives of the grain-to-green program, anti-desertification programs and other land use changes?
how do these cumulatively affect water, land and other resource productivities, carbon sequestration and other ecosystem services?
how is the red line for land (see previous slide) defined?
is there any sustainability boundary for land?
A nexus approach in Ningxia
16 large-scale coal power bases planned, predominantly in western areas of China
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2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Production of Primary Energy (10000 tons of SCE) and Its Composition
Hydropower, Windpowerand Photovoltaic
Crude Oil
Raw Coal
assessing tradeoffs: is water sector planning consistent with land, ecosystem and energy planning?
is this development consistent with the coal cap?
A nexus approach in Ningxia
coal mining 0,153coal fired power generation 0,189chemical production from coal 0,044Total 0,386provincial industrial water withdrawal in 2010
0,41
additional water demand from Ningdong coal base (on top of additional irrigation water demands) by 2015 in billion m3:
Greenpeace
assessing tradeoffs: is water sector planning consistent with land, ecosystem and energy planning?
16 large-scale coal power bases planned, predominantly in western areas of China
A nexus approach in Ningxia
how much more energy will the agricultural intensification require (e.g. pumping of water, fertilizer, machine use?
year 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011hydropower, wind power, photovoltaic (10000tons of SCE)
33,44 63,62 68,74 64,97 76,36 77,82 98,25 111,32
-> need for integrated planning according to resources availabilities and productivities
assessing tradeoffs:is water sector planning consistent with land, ecosystem and energy planning?
what about the hydropower target and additional bioenergy production(e.g. in response to the coal cap / energy red line), and their water and land requirements – are they accounted for in the red lines for water and land?
A nexus approach in Ningxia
e.g. do regional red lines from Ningxia and other regions add up to the national red line?
export production is not always taking place in the most resource productive regions:The upper Yellow River is a net export to RoC (rest of China) while having lower water productivity than RoC
How does Ningxia contribute to th national strategies and goals?
Feng et al 2012
A nexus approach in Ningxia
The nexus approach can become a catalyst for cooperation across sectors
Nexus approaches needs concerted efforts, because of they’re knowledge intensive and require innovations
State Forest Administration
National River Commisions
WRB