guoyi han geographer, hazard, risk, disasters, human dimensions of global environmental change...
TRANSCRIPT
Guoyi Han
Geographer, Hazard, Risk, Disasters, Human dimensions of Global Environmental Change
Research FellowDirector of China Initiative
Stockholm Environment Institute
•
CLIMATE
CHANGE
Bridging science and policy
Non-profit, independent, international research institute
Established in 1989 by the Swedish government
Supports decision-making in the field of sustainable development
Six centers around the world http://www.sei-international.org/
Stockholm Environment Institute
Theme 3: Transforming governanceTheme 3: Transforming governance
Theme 1: Managing environmental systemsTheme 1: Managing environmental systems Theme 4: Rethinking developmentTheme 4: Rethinking development
Theme 2: Reducing climate riskTheme 2: Reducing climate risk
China Initiative at SEI what do we do?
China Puzzle• Economic miracle and Environmental disaster • Hungary Dragon and Consumption• The Speed and Scale:
– Decades vs. centuries: multiple, simultaneous transitions – The "scale and scope of pollution far outpaces what occurred in
the United States and Europe”
• The climate change– “ elephant in the bed room” or “ incubator for solutions”
• The uncertain future
Making Sense of the Perplexed
• China today is in the midst of multiple transitions– From a traditional agrarian society to an industrial nation– From rural to urban– From a planning to a market based economy– Along with it, the reform of the financial system, the social welfare system,
education, medical care, etc, etc. • Those transitions are critical for that, depending the paths chosen, they bring
both opportunities and risks, and the results have profound implications for China as well as to the world in large. Managing any one of those transitions is an enough challenge, but China will have to deal with the intricate inter-linkages of the multiple transitions simultaneously.
• Even more so, given that– those transitions happen in a stunning speed at a massive scale;– those transitions happen in a world of climate change and globalization
"China watching is the only profession that makes meteorology
look accurate and precise."
Nicholas Kristof, former Beijing Bureau Chief, The New York Times
China’s development and global impacts
Guoyi Han, Research Fellow
Lecture for Environment, Development and Globalization CEMUS Education/Uppsala Centre for Sustainable Development • Fall Semester 2013
China’s economic miracle
• In 1978, China started the “Open and Reform”• In 2001, China entered WTO• In 2003, China passed UK• In 2005, China passed France• …, China passed Germany• In 2010, China passed Japan• In 2018, China will surpass the U.S.• In 2050, Chinese economy would be twice the size
of the U.S., and contributing to more than one third of the world GDP…
Contribution to the world total GDP
27.50%
21.60% 21.40% 20.60%
17.30%
5.20% 4.90%
7.80%
15.10%
23.10%
0.00%
5.00%
10.00%
15.00%
20.00%
25.00%
30.00%
1952 1978 1990 2003 2030
U.S China
Data source: Angus Madison, Chinese Economic Performance in the Long Run: 960-2030 AD, OECD publication, 2007
China’s ranks in the world on major development indicators
1978 1990 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2030
GDP (exchange rate)10
(1.75) 11
(1.64) 6
(3.75) 4
(4.94) 2
(9.5) 2
(13) 2
(19) 1
GDP (PPP)4
(4.9) 3
(7.8) 2
(11.8) 2
(16.2) 2
(18) 1
(20) 1
(24) 1
Merchandise export29
(0.76) 15
(1.80) 8
(3.86) 3
(7.26) 1
(10.4) 1
(13) 1
(20) 1
Foreign reserve 38 7 2 2 1 1 1 1
Science and technology power 5 5 3 3 2 1 1
Source: Courtesy of Professor Hu Angang, Tsinghua University
At the same time,
• China became the ‘world factory’, ‘workshop of the world’
• China became the world largest CO2 emitter; and dominating the new increase of the global GHG emission
• China became the world largest energy consumer
• The ‘Hungary Dragon’ – China’s thirst for resources of all kinds
• …
So what?
• What does this mean, for China and globally?
• It is not a question about the rise of China, it is about the changing global economic and political power pattern – the geopolitical dynamics of the new century.
• China’s global role is critical -- Many go as far as arguing the future of the world will largely depending on where China is going…
In this lecture,
We will looked at this from economic, social, environment /resources, political/international relation lenses
Chinese Economy
‘Open Reform’- the Chinese Economic Miracle • How did it all started?
• The 30+ years remarkable economic growth
• A successful yet profoundly unsustainable model “unstable, unbalanced, uncoordinated, unsustainable”
• Chinese economy in transfromation – ambition of the 12th FYP
China in the global economyGross Domestic Product Shares World Total, Four Major Powers, 1–2030
1 1000 1500 1600 1700 1820 1870 1900 1913 1950 1973 1980 1990 2000 2003 20300.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
China United States Western Europe Japan
Source: Angus Madison, “Statistics on World Population, GDP, and per Capita GDP, 1–2003 AD” (www.ggdc.net/maddison/); Angus Madison, Chinese Economic Performance in the Long Run, 960–2030 AD (Paris: OECD, 2007). (Slide, courtesy of Professor Hu Angang)
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1949
1952
1955
1958
1961
1964
1967
1970
1973
1976
1979
1982
1985
1988
1991
1994
1997
2000
2003
2006
2009
城镇非正规增加值
城镇正规增加值
乡镇企业增加值估算
农业增加值
Urban informal
Urban formal
TVEs
Agriculture
GDP STRUCTURE
Courtesy of Professor Hu Angang, 2011
The immediate challenges to the Chinese economy
(Two mostly internal and one mostly external)
• The middle income trap (or the ‘reform trap”)
• The ‘Lewis turning point’
• The changing external demand
The middle income trap
• What is that?
• Will China be the same as others?
• Or, is it really the “reform trap” or ‘transition trap”– “enjoying touching the stone and no longer wanting to
cross the river”
The ‘Lewis Turning Point’
• What is it? – a point in the economic development when no more
labor is forthcoming from the underdeveloped, or agricultural, sector and wages begin to rise
• China’s demographic transition – overly on the economic transition
• Increasing labor cost and implications
The changing external demand
• China’s export-dependent economy
• The financial crisis
The dilemma for the Chinese government
• Investment – Side effects of the stimulus package
• Export– Weak global recovery
• Domestic Consumption– When?
Consumption driven economy?
The dilemma for the global environment
When A Billion Chinese Jump: How China Will Save Mankind -- Or Destroy It
Environment and Resources
LAND AND PEOPLE
China Cluster
How Many is 1,320 million?
Europe 730 million
North America 329 million
South America (70%) 261 million
Total 1,320 million
• China covers almost 10 million sq km (same as US or Europe to the Urals)
• climate and topography extremes• mean elevation of 1500 m (2x the world
avg)• 115 million people or 10% of the
population occupy just 50,000 sq km or 0.5% of the land area
• half of the 1.3 billion people occupy only 1/10th of the land area
• high population pressure on scarce resources
China Cluster
Loss Plateau 640, 000km2
Arid and Semi-Arid: 52％
Karst 900,000 km2
Tibet-Qinghai Plateau 2M km2
Fact sheets of China
• Huge Population: 1.3—1.4 billion• GDP Per Capita: USD 2500-3000 (2010)• Resource Per Capita: water ¼ of WL, arable land
1/7• Coal-dominant energy structure 60-70%• 30 million people in poverty• Economic disparity • …
ENVIRONMENTAL PRESSURE
Escalating environmental and recourse constraints • ‘Poor endowment’ • Environmental price/cost• Resource scarcity
Environmental cost
• Pollution– Water– Land/soil– Air
• Ecosystem destruction– Desertification– Social erosion– Ecosystem services.
• Environmental and health cost (4 to 12% GDP)
Resources Scarcity
• Water• Energy• Minerals (big commodity price and that have
been so tight to China’s demand in the past twenty or so years…
Environment and development
• What is same:– The pattern (e.g., UK, London smog 1950s– The relationship– Mostly also the process
• What is different:– The scale– The speed – In the ‘Anthropocene’
• Globalization • ‘resource-saturated’• Climate change
The air quality situation
• In January, PM2.5 readings in Beijing surged to a record 993 micrograms per cubic meter. The WHO recommends day-long exposure of no higher than 25. The average concentration of PM2.5 particles in 74 cities monitored by China’s Ministry of Environmental Protection was 76 micrograms in the first half.
Pittsburgh in the 1940s-1950shttp://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2155742/Hell-lid-taken-The-pictures-bygone-Pittsburgh-residents-choking-clouds-smog.html
The Great Smog of London in the 1952: more than 4000 people diedhttp://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/countryside/9727128/The-Great-Smog-of-London-the-air-was-thick-with-apathy.html
'Hell,” wrote Shelley, “is a city much like London – / A populous and a smoky city”.
Action Plan to Tackle Air Pollution• On September 12, China’s State Council released an action plan to tackle air pollution aiming to
improve air quality, slash coal consumption, and accelerate removal of outdated capacity in selected industries.
• The plan specified that the respirable particulate matter (PM10) levels (micrograms per cubic meter) in prefecture-level and above Chinese cities will be reduced by over 10 percent by 2017 from the 2012 levels, with the number of good air quality days on the increase. By 2017, the PM2.5 levels in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, Yangtze River delta, and Pearl River delta will decrease by 25 percent, 20 percent, and 15 percent respectively; the annual average PM2.5 level in Beijing is anticipated to be controlled at around 60 micrograms per cubic meter by then.
• China also aimed to cut coal consumption to below 65 percent of total primary energy use by 2017, down from 66.8 percent last year. In addition, the share of non-fossil fuel energy in total energy consumption will be raised to 13 percent by 2017, up from 11.4 percent in 2012. To help meet the target, China would also raise nuclear power installed capacity to 50 GW by 2017, up from 12.5 GW at present.
• More efforts will be made to speed up the removal of outdated and polluting industrial capacity, to complete relocation of plants in coastal areas, as well as to tackle pollution and overcapacity in key sectors by 2017. Meanwhile, the nation will halt construction of all unapproved projects in industries facing overcapacity and speed up the implementation of new automobile fuel standards. Furthermore, China will stop approving new thermal power plants in key industrial areas and strictly control new capacity in high-polluting and high-energy-consuming industries.
Dilemma for China
• Development stage • Maintaining economic growth• Energy endowment and security
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, 2011
Source: World Bank
• China has less room for mistakes than the now rich countries had in the course of their development
• China has to do what no one has done before, i.e., to modernize with a low carbon pathway
• And to do it quick enough!
Climate change as example…
Climate change
1960 1970 1980 1990 2008 2015 2030
China 8.98 5.65 8.08 11.29 22.4 25.34 27.32
EU 15.87 15.09 13.59 10.96 13.0 11.77 9.97
US 33.68 31.18 25.32 22.67 19.0 19.76 16.44
Japan 2.47 4.96 4.71 4.76 3.79 2.82
Russia 5.28 4.71
India 1.28 1.30 1.79 3.01 4.5 5.28 7.88
Total 71.23 69.14
EU/China 1.77 2.67 1.68 0.97 0.58 0.46 0.36
US/China 3.75 5.52 3.13 2.01 0.85 0.78 0.60
CO2 emissions by six major economies in the total of the world
Note: a. 1992 figures.Sources: 1960-1990 data from the World Bank, World Development Indicator 2006, CD-ROM; Taking EU as having 11 countries. 2008-2030 data from IEA, World Energy Outlook 2010,IEA； reference scenario (According to the current state, without relevant policy for controlling emissions); Taking EU as having 25 countries.
Courtesy of Professor Hu Angang, 2011
Climate change• Chinese government has released its 2020 carbon emission
reduction target in 2009, which plans to reduce carbon intensity at 40-45% comparing with 2005. Is this an ambitious target, or only a business as usual plan?
Economic growth rate (%)
CO2 emission at 2020 (billion tons)
Reduction by 40% Reduction by 45%
8 10.89 9.99
9 12.06 11.05
10 13.33 12.22
Scenario projections on carbon emission reduction under different economic growth rate
Courtesy of Professor Hu Angang, 2011
Climate change• Various carbon emission reduction scenarios
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 20500
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Business as usual
Peak in 2030
Peak in 2020
100 million tons
Courtesy of Professor Hu Angang, 2011
Unit: Billion tons 2020 2030 20502010-2020
accumulation2010-2030
accumulation2010-2050
accumulation
Business as usual
10.0 12.0 15.0 92.1 (1.14) 203.1 (1.4) 474.6 (2.32)
Peak in 2030 9.0 10.0 8.0 86.6 (1.07) 182.1 (1.26) 361.1 (1.76)
Peak in 2020 8.0 5.0 1.2 81.1 (1.0) 144.6 (1.0) 204.7 (1.0)
Courtesy of Professor Hu Angang, 2011
Economic growth rate (%)
CO2 emission at 2020 (billion tons)
Reduction by 40% Reduction by 45%
8 10.89 9.99
9 12.06 11.05
10 13.33 12.22
1990 2009
800 tec
390 tec 300
tec 173 tec
19%
30%
China’s energy intensity per million $ output (tec)China’s share of global CO2 emission
Accumulation of CO2 emission
CHINA: 1990 to 2050
WORLD:
1700 to 1970 500 GT
Unfortunate timing
TIME 18th Century
1950s 2013
CO2 concentration in the atmosphere
280 ppm 315ppm 400ppm
Countries industrialized
UK Japan China + emerging economies
Social Challenges
Growing Social Tensions
• Inequality and injustice• Corruption, distrust, and resentment • Moral decay
Inequality
• Distribution
• The process
• “internalization” – if you are the son of … then …
Corruption, distrust, resentment
• Systemizing corruption
• Erosion of trust– The “salt crisis” example
• ‘Resentment’ dominates the social emotion– Food safety– “high profile stories: Yao Jiaxin, Li Gang, Li Shuang
jiang’s son etc etc
Moral Decay
• The horror stories– The Yao Jaxin case
• “Consumerism is the king”– “you don’t need to say ‘thank you’…”
• Social norms– “assuming guilty first…”
Civil society and growing middle class
• Rise in the influence of think tanks, lawyers, NGOs and interest groups. Media organizations, microblogging are increasingly powerful.
• The growing middle class– The number– Defining indetity
Political and international relations
Political/international relation
• China’s political change
• ‘Going out’ ‘ Going global’ strategy
• Rising super power and global image
• Both China and the world are yet to learn how to cope with the changing role of China
Political change
• Intra-party democratization or in-fight?
• ‘Elite power’
• The new leadership• Shift in international experience
Watching out, the Chinese is coming!
• ‘The hungry dragon’
• China in Africa
• The Chinese Consumer– ‘Beijing pound” in London
Rising power and global image
• ‘Peaceful rise’ and ‘homonymous world’• ‘tao guang yang hui’ (“not to show off one’s
capability but to keep a low profile )(lay low and build your strength)
• Building soft power– The Confucius School
• ‘Learning by doing’ –adapting to the new role– ‘looking for chair’ syndrome– ‘man in a boy’s cloth’
Setting the ‘China Story’ into historical global context
• The heaps of characterization of a ‘China Model’• The interest and attraction for other countries • The value of thinking of China’s future
The question is, how unique is the ‘China story’ ? Is there a unique and magic ‘China Model’ that can lead the way for the rest of the developing countries?
Economy: Government and market
• What is the same:– The challenge: the answered question– …
• What is different:– China’s sprit of ‘experiment’– What kind of capitalism? – State capitalism,
Bureaucratic capitalism, – ....
Social cultural modernization
• What is same– Cultural transition – cultural clashes– Materialist world view – the middle class want the
extract same thing as those who got rich before them– ..
• What is different:– Information age (internet, social media…)– The ‘one-child’ policy – the biggest social experiment
ever in the human history–
Environment and development
• The changes in China over the past thirty years, as one seasoned China reporter put it, are like “watching 200-odd years of industrial development playing at fast forward on a continent-wide screen with a cast of more than a billion” (J. Watts 2012, =guardian.co.uk, Monday 18 June 2012 20.30)
• “mix of communist politics and capitalist economics appeared to have created a system designed to exploit people and the environment like never before”.
The world need a new solution…
• “Developed nations have been outsourcing their environmental stress to other countries and future generations for more than two centuries. China is trying to do the same as it looks overseas for food, fuel and minerals to satisfy the rising demand of its cities and factories. This has been extremely good news for economies in Africa, Mongolia, Australia and South America. I sympathise with China. It is doing what imperial, dominant powers have done for more than two centuries, but it is harder for China because the planet is running short of land and time.”
China’s Future
China in 2020: a vision by Prof. Hu Angang• Comparing with 1978, China will grow 87.4 times in GDP, and 62.5
times in GDP per capita. China will create 50 years economic growth gold age, and complete transformation from extremely low income to low income, then to middle income and high income
• China is experiencing world’s largest urbanization, from 172 million urban population to over 1 billion urban population, and also mobilize huge rural labors
• Population with college and above education will grow from 4 million to 300 million, and average educational year will increase from 4 years to 11 years
• Full time scientists and engineers in R&D will be 3 million and 4.5 million in 2020 and 2030 respectively
• Life expectancy in China will increase from 67 years to 78.5 or even 80 years
• HDI in China will increase from 0.55 to 0.95• China has alleviated world’s largest poverty population
The only certainty about China’s Future is uncertainty.
But, either way, it matters a great deal not only for China but also the world.
Some other reflections on the global impacts of the rise of China
• It is not just about China, it is the rise of the developing countries
• Reshaping the notion of modernity• State competence and democracy• Government and market (e.g., what kind of
capitalism? Or is it capitalism?
To end with a joke
• in 1949 only socialism could save China; • in 1979 only capitalism could save China; • in 1989 only China could save socialism; • in 2009 only China could save capitalism.
Walking the Delicate BALANCE