a new path forward in south sudan by shahidur rashid
TRANSCRIPT
INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
Agriculture in South SudanSome Thoughts on the Path Forward
Shahidur RashidInternational Food Policy Research Institute
October 23, 2012Washington, DC
This presentation relies on materials from an IFPRI 2011 report, “Current Condition and Agricultural Potential in South Sudan” by Xinshen Diao, Liangzhi You, Vida Alpuerto and Renato Folledo, funded by the World Bank; and some initial works for the WFP-South Sudan.
INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
Understanding Agricultural Potential
South Sudan has high agricultural potential, however
77% of potentially cultivatable land ( more than 50 million ha) are covered with trees, shrubs and grass
Only 2.5 million hectares of land are readily available for crop cultivation, with per capita crop land of 0.32 ha
INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
Converting about 6% of tree and shrub covered land would increase total cropped area to 6.3 million hectares
Area expansion potential is high in the Greenbelt as well as the Eastern and Western Flood Plains
At the state level, most new land will be in Western Bahr el Ghazal, Lakes, and the Equatoria states
Understanding Agricultural Potential
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Food Shortage and Vulnerability
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20110%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Cereal imports as % consumption requirement
Cereal Import as % of consumption
During 2004-2011, average consumption requirement of cereal was 1.8 million tons
Cereal import was 30-60% of this consumption requirement
On an average, RSS had to feed more than a million food insecure people.
If a yield rate of 2.0 tons /ha is achieved, South Sudan can be
cereal self sufficient by allocating only one million ha of
land!!
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Lack of Market Fundamentals
Cereal markets are thin and lack spatial integration Maize prices in production areas as percentage of Juba prices vary from as low as 40% to as high as 160%!The same estimate for sorghum is 70-160%!
Very different price trends in two substitutes!
Systemic Bottlenecks in South Sudan Agriculture
INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
Systemic Bottlenecks in South Sudan Agriculture
Agricultural output value per hectare of land in South Sudan is substantially lower than its neighbors because:
Low farm productivity (low modern input use due to high input prices)
Low farm gate price due to high transaction costs
Kenya Ethiopia Uganda S. Sudan$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
$1,400
$1,600
$1,400
$920
$660
$300
Revenue per ha of land (US$)
All of South Sudan’s neighbors are more competitive
INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
Looking Forward
Agro-ecologicalPotential
Economically Viable Agriculture
The task ahead is obvious
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Making agriculture economically viable is particularly important for South Sudan because:
South Sudan has to avoid resource trap South Sudan has to avoid Dutch Disease
Oil revenues (an inflow of foreign exchange) will tend to lead to real exchange rate appreciation.
Real (inflation-adjusted) prices of tradable agriculture (including all cereals) would tend to fall
Without major domestic investments to increase productivity, profitability of tradable good will decline (“Dutch disease” effects)
Looking Forward
INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
Looking Forward
The key steps to face these challenges are outlined by H.E. Dr. Betty Achan Ogwaro
However, executing each of step will require firm commitment from the government and support from the development partners in areas of respective core competencies.
One area where IFPRI can support is advancing an evidence based food and agricultural policy agenda by focusing on:
Building analytical capacity (government agencies; universities; think tank)
Establishing institutional mechanism to link to feed analysis into policy making