A Geological Perspective On Global Warming

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By Peter Rose The relative contribution of Man's activities, as opposed to Nature's activities,,to the observed recent rises in Earth temperatures, is unresolved. In addition to the oft-noted inability of climate modeling to reproduce the documented recent past, a major shortcoming of contemporary climate studies is that they rest upon very short time spans, whereas climate change considered from a geological perspective encourages much less anxiety about the climate future of the world. If it turns out that most observed global warming is the result of natural causes, as seems increasingly likely, proposed voluntary economic initiatives by Western nations to limit CO2 emissions will constitute a serious and unnecessary economic wound, self-inflicted at the worst possible time. Sunspot cycles suggest that we are about to enter -- indeed may have already begun -- an extended period of global cooling. Recent unsavory revelations (Climate Gate) have cast doubt on thedependability of the science underpinning Anthropogenic Global Warming. Peter R. Rose (BS, MA, PhD, Geology, University of Texas at Austin) is a certified petroleum geologist who was Staff Geologist with Shell Oil Company; Chief, Oil and Gas Branch of the U.S. Geological Survey; and Chief Geologist and Director of Frontier Exploration for Energy Reserves Group, Inc. (now BHP Petroleum (Americas), Inc.). In 1980, he established his own independent oil and gas consulting firm, Telegraph Exploration, Inc. His clients include most major U.S. companies and prominent independents as well as many international firms and state oil companies. Dr. Rose has explored for oil and gas in most North American geological provinces and has published and lectured widely on U.S. resource assessment, basin analysis, play development, prospect evaluation, and risk and uncertainty in exploration. He has taught extensively at the professional level and was a 1985/1986 AAPG Distinguished Lecturer.

TRANSCRIPT

  • 1.
    • A GEOLOGICAL PERSPECTIVE ON:
        • Global Warming
        • Global & US Energy Futures
        • Global Free Markets
        • . . . WHAT WE CAN DO NOW
    Peter R. Rose Past President, American Association of Petroleum Geologists !
  • 2.
    • Influence of Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW) NOT a settled scientific issue.
    • Alternative Energy Sources will BEGIN to replace conventional fossil fuels.
    • Robust, trustworthy Free-market Economy ESSENTIAL to the coming Energy Transition.
    • Effective Remedies we can agree on NOW.
    OUTLINE
  • 3.
  • 4. MEDIEVAL WARMING LITTLE ICE AGE
  • 5.
  • 6.
  • 7. Earth temperature history from Greenland ice core data
  • 8.
  • 9. LESS ELLIPTICAL MORE ELLIPTICAL SHAPE OF EARTHS ORBIT
  • 10.
  • 11. W. Soon, 2010
  • 12. W. Soon, 2010
  • 13. Insolation Temperature Track C0 2 Doesnt Track Temp. 380 ppm
  • 14. H. L. STEWARD 2008 CO2s HEAT-TRAPPING CAPACITY DIMINISHES LOGARITHMICALLY
  • 15.
  • 16.
  • 17.
  • 18.
  • 19. (Uncertain) Role of Clouds
    • 95% of Greenhouse Gases = Water Vapor
    • Influenced by Cosmic Rays
    • Verifiable Feedback to Greenhouse Effect
      • IPCC allies assume most feedbacks (+)
      • Lindzen & Soon find many feedbacks ( )
  • 20. SIGNIFICANCE OF CLIMATEGATE :
    • Corruption of Climate Science
      • Academic and Government Scientists (U.K. & U.S.)
      • Destruction/Alteration of Inconvenient Data
      • Abuse of Peer-Review Process
      • Non-engagement with other Pertinent Science
      • Influenced by Social Philosophy -- Politics; Government Funding, Media Publicity, Financial Interests
    • Discredited UN IPCC
    • Bad Science -> Bad Policies
    • Wasted $, Lost Time
    • Public Loss of Confidence in Science
  • 21. HUBER 2005
  • 22. HUBER 2005
  • 23. US ENERGY-SUPPLY CRISIS:
    • Convergence of Global Oil Supply & Demand
    • Approaching Plateau in Global Oil Production
    • Mortgaging of US Assets to Feed US Motor-fuel Addiction
    • Crude Oil as a Geopolitical Weapon
  • 24. OIL & GAS A changing environment for future production Oil price vs OPEC spare capacity Source : IEA, September 2005 2002 2010 2020 2030 1971 1990 World oil demand Mb/d + 1.6% / yr 77 90 107 121 50 66 Reduction of spare capacities Mb/d Transport Petrochemicals Non-energy use Heating Electricity A growing world oil demand driven by transport fuels Spare capacity Brent price Hc prices keeping high for long term 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Mb/d $/b
  • 25. RESERVES CUM CRUDE 2008
  • 26. How many US dollars went overseas during 2005-2009 to pay for motor fuel burned in the US? = $2.31 TRILLION GREATEST TRANSFER OF WEALTH IN HISTORY? 5 yrs x 365 days/yr x 21M bbl/day x 67% x ~$90/bbl
  • 27. 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 Russia Saudi Arabia Iran Iraq Kuwait Abu Dhabi Qatar Venezuela U. S. Rest of World Reserves DISTRIBUTION OF KNOWN RESERVES*
    • 67% OF KNOWN RESERVES ARE IN 9 COUNTRIES
    • 43% OF KNOWN RESERVES ARE IN 7 MAJOR OPEC COUNTRIES
    2.1 TBBOE *Gas converted at 5.6BCF = 1MMBOE B B O E Petroconsultants
  • 28. QAc8506c U.S. Energy Consumption EIA, 2000, Annual Energy Review 1999, Appendix F, Tables F1a and F1b. Up, up, up and away. 40 30 20 10 0 1775 1800 1825 1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 Quadrillion Btu Biomass Coal Petroleum Natural gas Hydro. power Nuclear power
  • 29. QAd1023 QAd1023 U.S. Consumption I ask kids about renewables Data: Annual Energy Review 1999 (EIA, 2000) U.S. Energy Consumption 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 1845 1870 1895 1920 1945 1953 1958 1963 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 Quad BTU Renewable Energy Hydroelectric Nuclear Energy Natural Gas Oil Imported Oil Produced Coal Wood and Waste
  • 30. U.S. Energy Comparison Back to oil and gas Net Energy = Energy Produced - (Energy to Create + Energy to Operate)
  • 31. HORATIUS AT THE BRIDGE A Healthy Fossil-fuel Industry will buy us time to make a safe transition into a Sustainable, Alternate-Energy Future !
  • 32. WHY WE MUST EXPAND U.S. NUCLEAR POWER NOW :
    • Only Dependable 24/7 Alternative Energy Source
    • High-volume Source of Electric Power
    • Re-cycling Spent Fuel Eliminates Nuclear-waste Storage Problem
    • Operational Incidents Causing Nuclear Power-station Accidents Can be Eliminated
    • No Toxic Emissions
    • Experience of French Nuclear-power Industry
  • 33. H. L. STEWARD 2008
    • Causes :
    • Agriculture
    • Medicine
    • Energy
  • 34. SALVADOR 2005 WORLD POPULATION PROJECTION
  • 35. REQUIREMENTS FOR SUCCESSFUL TRANSITION TO SUSTAINABLE US ENERGY SOCIETY
    • Realistic National Energy Policy : Absent for 30 years
    • Constructive Industry-Government Relationships : to Optimize Planning, Prioritization & Support of R&D
    • Massive Investments : Requires Robust, Trustworthy Free-market Investment Sector
    • Stable High Energy Prices and/or Government Support : to Encourage Conservation and Long-term Investments
    • Accelerated Construction of Nuclear Power Plants : Expanded Electric-power Generation
    • Maintain US Fossil-fuel Industry : as Bridge to the Future
  • 36. CONSERVATION
    • The quickest, cheapest way to reduce U.S. Energy Consumption
    • Translate Green Activism to country-wide Energy Frugality Ethic
    • For motor fuels, reinforce by gradual increase in gasoline & diesel taxes dedicated to alternate energy development
    • (1978-1990) History: U.S. became much more Energy Efficient, then wasted it on SUVs, McMansions, Frivolous appliances., etc.
    • Problem : How to make Energy Frugality a Permanent National Value
  • 37. CAVEAT TO ENVIRONMENTALISTS :
    • The Adoption of Proactive and Sustained Environmental Programs Depends Upon a Healthy Economy
    We Must Stop Getting Stampeded by Ill-founded, Apocalyptic Scare Tactics !
  • 38. GOOD NEWS I --
    • Transportation :
      • Lighter-weight vehicles & higher MPGs
      • Battery-powered autos & reduced speed limits
      • Higher taxes on motor fuels & heavier vehicles
      • Natural-gas powered trucks, buses & autos
      • Shifting long-range freight to railroads
      • Efficient ethanol production (NOT CORN!)
    We dont have to accept Anthropogenic Global Warming to support many measures needed NOW for a healthy US Energy Future!
  • 39. GOOD NEWS II --
    • Other Sectors :
      • Improved Energy Efficiency -- Residential, Commercial, Industrial
      • Upgrade National Power Grid
      • Govt support of Alternative Energy Sources -- R&D
      • Maximize US Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
      • Re-invigorate Nuclear Power
      • Educate Energy Workforce
    We dont have to accept Anthropogenic Global Warming to support many measures needed NOW for a healthy US Energy Future!
  • 40. GOOD NEWS III -- U.S. Natural Gas Recoverable Resources have Increased by about 35% since 2006, a Current 100-year Supply at Present Consumption Rates. - - Now, How to Gain Access to Gas-productive Lands?
  • 41. GOOD NEWS IV -- Development of Alternative and Diversified Energy Sources can Provide Fruitful new Investment Opportunities to Revitalize the US Investment Sector. $$
  • 42. BAD NEWS -- Proposed Cap and Trade or Carbon Tax measures to restrict Energy Use are unnecessary and self-penalizing to the recovery of a robust economy -- especially since Developing Nations will exempt themselves.
  • 43.
    • DEALING WITH LONG-TERM NATIONAL ISSUES
    • FREE-MARKET OPTION: Problem : Free market Capitalism is ineffective in dealing with long-term problems (discounting of future cash flows assigns little or no value to cash flows beyond 15 -20 years. U. S. markets focus on short-term results).
    • GOVERNMENT CONTROL OPTION: Problem : Global experience of 1950-1990 showed that "Planned Economies" do not work.
    • NATIONAL POLICY OPTION: Solution : Non-partisan consensus can allow an informed democratic society to deal with important long-term issues such as Energy (prior U. S. examples -- Space program; Clean air/water acts; Smoking; Civil rights). Requirements : Communication of facts and consequences, Education; Open dialog; Shared sacrifices; Real bipartisan political leadership; Continuity of policy.
  • 44. Ingredients for Future Recovery
    • Communicating the problem (education)
    • Trustworthy free-market economy
    • Informed leadership and media
    • Insistence on responsible politicians
    • A new national purpose and character
    • Sharing the pain of Conservation
    WE CAN DO THIS!
  • 45. Future generations depend on us to make good decisions .
  • 46.
    • A GEOLOGICAL PERSPECTIVE ON:
        • Global Warming
        • Global & US Energy Futures
        • Global Free Markets
        • . . . WHAT WE CAN DO NOW
    Peter R. Rose Past President, American Association of Petroleum Geologists !