a geological perspective on global warming
DESCRIPTION
By Peter Rose The relative contribution of Man's activities, as opposed to Nature's activities,,to the observed recent rises in Earth temperatures, is unresolved. In addition to the oft-noted inability of climate modeling to reproduce the documented recent past, a major shortcoming of contemporary climate studies is that they rest upon very short time spans, whereas climate change considered from a geological perspective encourages much less anxiety about the climate future of the world. If it turns out that most observed global warming is the result of natural causes, as seems increasingly likely, proposed voluntary economic initiatives by Western nations to limit CO2 emissions will constitute a serious and unnecessary economic wound, self-inflicted at the worst possible time. Sunspot cycles suggest that we are about to enter -- indeed may have already begun -- an extended period of global cooling. Recent unsavory revelations (“Climate Gate”) have cast doubt on thedependability of the science underpinning Anthropogenic Global Warming. Peter R. Rose (BS, MA, PhD, Geology, University of Texas at Austin) is a certified petroleum geologist who was Staff Geologist with Shell Oil Company; Chief, Oil and Gas Branch of the U.S. Geological Survey; and Chief Geologist and Director of Frontier Exploration for Energy Reserves Group, Inc. (now BHP Petroleum (Americas), Inc.). In 1980, he established his own independent oil and gas consulting firm, Telegraph Exploration, Inc. His clients include most major U.S. companies and prominent independents as well as many international firms and state oil companies. Dr. Rose has explored for oil and gas in most North American geological provinces and has published and lectured widely on U.S. resource assessment, basin analysis, play development, prospect evaluation, and risk and uncertainty in exploration. He has taught extensively at the professional level and was a 1985/1986 AAPG Distinguished Lecturer.TRANSCRIPT
A GEOLOGICAL PERSPECTIVE A GEOLOGICAL PERSPECTIVE ON:ON:
Global WarmingGlobal Warming
Global & US Energy Global & US Energy FuturesFutures
Global Free MarketsGlobal Free Markets
. . . WHAT WE CAN . . . WHAT WE CAN DO NOWDO NOW
Peter R. Rose Past President,
American Association of Petroleum Geologists
Peter R. Rose Past President,
American Association of Petroleum Geologists
!!
1. Influence of Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW) NOT a settled scientific issue.
2. Alternative Energy Sources will BEGIN to replace conventional fossil fuels.
3. Robust, trustworthy Free-market Economy ESSENTIAL to the coming Energy Transition.
4. Effective Remedies we can agree on NOW.
OUTLINE
MEDIEVAL WARMING
LITTLE ICE AGE
Earth temperature history from Greenland ice core data
Earth temperature history from Greenland ice core data
LESS ELLIPTICAL
MORE ELLIPTICALSHAPE OF EARTH’S ORBIT
W. Soon, 2010
W. Soon, 2010
Insolation Temperature Track
C02 Doesn’tTrack Temp.
380 ppm
H. L. STEWARD 2008
CO2’s HEAT-TRAPPING CAPACITY DIMINISHES LOGARITHMICALLY
(Uncertain) Role of Clouds(Uncertain) Role of Clouds
• 95% of Greenhouse Gases = Water Vapor
• Influenced by Cosmic Rays
• Verifiable Feedback to Greenhouse Effect
– IPCC allies assume most feedbacks (+)
– Lindzen & Soon find many feedbacks (–)
SIGNIFICANCE OF “CLIMATEGATE”:SIGNIFICANCE OF “CLIMATEGATE”:1. Corruption of Climate Science
Academic and Government Scientists (U.K. & U.S.)
Destruction/Alteration of “Inconvenient” Data Abuse of Peer-Review Process Non-engagement with other Pertinent Science Influenced by Social Philosophy -- Politics;
Government Funding, Media Publicity, Financial Interests
2. Discredited UN IPCC3. Bad Science → Bad Policies
4. Wasted $, Lost Time
5. Public Loss of Confidence in Science
HUBER 2005
HUBER 2005
US ENERGY-SUPPLY CRISIS:
Convergence of Global Oil Supply & Demand
Approaching Plateau in Global Oil Production
Mortgaging of US Assets to Feed US Motor-fuel Addiction
Crude Oil as a Geopolitical Weapon
Oil price vs OPEC spare
capacity
Oil price vs OPEC spare
capacity
Source : IEA, September 2005
OIL & GASA changing environment for future production
OIL & GASA changing environment for future production
2002 2010 2020 20301971 1990
World oil demand Mb/dWorld oil demand Mb/d
+ 1.6% / yr+ 1.6% / yr
77
90
107
121
50
66
TransportTransport
PetrochemicalsPetrochemicals
Non-energy useNon-energy use
HeatingHeating
ElectricityElectricity
A growing world oil demand
driven by transport fuels
A growing world oil demand
driven by transport fuels
Reduction of spare capacities
Spare capacity Brent price
Hc prices keeping high for long term
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 20040
10
20
30
40
50
60Mb/d $/b
Mb/d
RESERVES
CUMCRUDE
20082008
““How many US dollars went How many US dollars went overseas during 2005-2009 to pay overseas during 2005-2009 to pay for motor fuel burned in the US?”for motor fuel burned in the US?”
““How many US dollars went How many US dollars went overseas during 2005-2009 to pay overseas during 2005-2009 to pay for motor fuel burned in the US?”for motor fuel burned in the US?”
5 yrs x 365 days/yr x 21M bbl/day x 67% x ~$90/bbl–
GREATEST TRANSFER OF WEALTH IN HISTORY?
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
Ru
ssia
Sau
di A
rabia
Iran
Iraq
Ku
wait
Ab
u D
hab
i
Qatar
Ven
ezuela
U. S
.
Rest o
f Wo
rldReserves
DISTRIBUTION OF KNOWN RESERVES*DISTRIBUTION OF KNOWN RESERVES*
67% OF KNOWN RESERVES ARE IN 9 COUNTRIES 43% OF KNOWN RESERVES ARE IN 7 MAJOR OPEC COUNTRIES
2.1 TBBOE2.1 TBBOE*Gas converted at5.6BCF = 1MMBOE
BBOE
BBOE
PetroconsultantsPetroconsultants
Tinker, GCAGS DPA Keynote, 2004
QAd3931x
40
30
20
10
0
1775 1800 1825 1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000
Qu
adri
llio
n B
tu
QAc8506c
U.S. Energy Consumption
Biomass
Coal
Petroleum
Naturalgas
Hydro.power
Nuclearpower
EIA, 2000, Annual Energy Review 1999, Appendix F, Tables F1a and F1b.
Up, up, up and away….
Tinker, GCAGS DPA Keynote, 2004
QAd3931x
U.S. Energy Consumption
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1845
1870
1895
1920
1945
1953
1958
1963
1968
1973
1978
1983
1988
1993
1998
Qu
ad
BT
U
Renewable Energy
Hydroelectric
Nuclear Energy
Natural Gas
Oil Imported
Oil Produced
Coal
Wood and Waste
QAd1023QAd1023
U.S. Consumption
I ask kids about
renewables…
Data: Annual Energy Review 1999 (EIA, 2000)
Tinker, GCAGS DPA Keynote, 2004
QAd3931x
Net Energy = Energy Produced - (Energy to Create + Energy to Operate)
U.S. Energy Comparison
Back to oil and
gas
A Healthy Fossil-fuel Industry will buy us time to make a safe transition into a Sustainable, Alternate-Energy FutureA Healthy Fossil-fuel Industry will buy us time to make a
safe transition into a Sustainable, Alternate-Energy Future
WHY WE MUST EXPAND U.S. NUCLEAR POWER NOW:
WHY WE MUST EXPAND U.S. NUCLEAR POWER NOW:
• Only Dependable 24/7 Alternative Energy Source
• High-volume Source of Electric Power• Re-cycling Spent Fuel Eliminates Nuclear-
waste Storage Problem• Operational Incidents Causing Nuclear
Power-station Accidents Can be Eliminated• No Toxic Emissions• Experience of French Nuclear-power
Industry
H. L. STEWARD 2008
Causes:AgricultureMedicineEnergy
SALVADOR 2005
WORLD POPULATION PROJECTIONWORLD POPULATION PROJECTION
REQUIREMENTS FOR SUCCESSFUL TRANSITION TO SUSTAINABLE US ENERGY
SOCIETYRealistic National Energy Policy: Absent for 30 years
Constructive Industry-Government Relationships: to Optimize Planning, Prioritization & Support of R&D
Massive Investments: Requires Robust, Trustworthy Free-market Investment Sector
Stable High Energy Prices and/or Government Support: to Encourage Conservation and Long-term Investments
Accelerated Construction of Nuclear Power Plants: Expanded Electric-power Generation
Maintain US Fossil-fuel Industry: as “Bridge to the Future”
CONSERVATIONCONSERVATION The quickest, cheapest way to reduce U.S.
Energy Consumption Translate “Green Activism” to country-wide
“Energy Frugality Ethic” For motor fuels, reinforce by gradual increase
in gasoline & diesel taxes dedicated to alternate energy development
(1978-1990) History: U.S. became much more Energy Efficient, then wasted it on SUVs, “McMansions”, Frivolous appliances., etc.
Problem: How to make Energy Frugality a Permanent National Value
CAVEAT TO ENVIRONMENTALISTS:
CAVEAT TO ENVIRONMENTALISTS:
“The Adoption of Proactive and Sustained Environmental Programs Depends Upon a Healthy Economy”
We Must Stop Getting Stampeded by Ill-founded, Apocalyptic Scare TacticsWe Must Stop Getting Stampeded by
Ill-founded, Apocalyptic Scare Tactics
GOOD NEWS IGOOD NEWS I -- --
I. Transportation:• Lighter-weight vehicles & higher MPG’s• Battery-powered autos & reduced speed limits• Higher taxes on motor fuels & heavier vehicles• Natural-gas powered trucks, buses & autos• Shifting long-range freight to railroads • Efficient ethanol production (NOT CORN!)
We don’t have to accept Anthropogenic Global Warming to support many measures needed NOW for a healthy US Energy Future!
GOOD NEWS IIGOOD NEWS II -- --
II. Other Sectors:• Improved Energy Efficiency -- Residential, Commercial,
Industrial
• Upgrade National Power Grid
• Gov’t support of Alternative Energy Sources -- R&D
• Maximize US Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
• Re-invigorate Nuclear Power
• Educate Energy Workforce
We don’t have to accept Anthropogenic Global Warming to support many measures needed NOW for a healthy US Energy Future!
GOOD NEWS IIIGOOD NEWS III -- --
U.S. Natural Gas Recoverable Resources have Increased by about 35% since 2006, a Current 100-year Supply at Present Consumption Rates.
- - “Now, How to Gain Access - - “Now, How to Gain Access to Gas-productive Lands?”to Gas-productive Lands?”
GOOD NEWS IVGOOD NEWS IV -- --
Development of Alternative and Diversified Energy Sources can Provide Fruitful new Investment Opportunities to Revitalize the US Investment Sector.
BAD NEWSBAD NEWS -- --
Proposed “Cap and Trade” or Carbon Tax measures to restrict Energy Use are unnecessary and self-penalizing to the recovery of a robust economy -- especially since Developing Nations will exempt themselves.
DEALING WITH LONG-TERM NATIONAL ISSUES
1) FREE-MARKET OPTION: Problem: Free market Capitalism is ineffective in dealing with long-term problems (discounting of future cash flows assigns little or no value to cash flows beyond 15 -20 years. U. S. markets focus on short-term results).
2) GOVERNMENT CONTROL OPTION: Problem: Global experience of 1950-1990 showed that "Planned Economies" do not work.
3) NATIONAL POLICY OPTION: Solution: Non-partisan consensus can allow an informed democratic society to deal with important long-term issues such as Energy (prior U. S. examples -- Space program; Clean air/water acts; Smoking; Civil rights). Requirements: Communication of facts and consequences, Education; Open dialog; Shared sacrifices; Real bipartisan political leadership; Continuity of policy.
Ingredients for Future Recovery• Communicating the problem
(education)• Trustworthy free-market economy• Informed leadership and media• Insistence on responsible politicians• A new national purpose and character• Sharing the pain of Conservation
WE CAN DO THIS!WE CAN DO THIS!
Future generations depend on us to make good decisions.
Future generations depend on us to make good decisions.
A GEOLOGICAL PERSPECTIVE A GEOLOGICAL PERSPECTIVE ON:ON:
Global WarmingGlobal Warming
Global & US Energy Global & US Energy FuturesFutures
Global Free MarketsGlobal Free Markets
. . . WHAT WE CAN . . . WHAT WE CAN DO NOWDO NOW
Peter R. RosePast President,
American Association of Petroleum Geologists
Peter R. RosePast President,
American Association of Petroleum Geologists
!!