climate from a geologic perspective 1 global warming/cooling cycles from a geologic perspective...

CLIMATE FROM A GEOLOGIC PERSPECTIVE

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GLOBAL WARMING/COOLING

CYCLES FROM A GEOLOGIC PERSPECTIVE (meaning a very long time horizon)

By Rocky RomeroRev 3

http://www.google.com/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=9XCK6NvtYFTFIM&tbnid=HxQ8qgrX6z_DVM:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/environment/climatechange/10436993/Climate-change-is-an-uncertain-science.html&ei=i6THUsqCPcil2wXYlIGIDQ&bvm=bv.58187178,d.b2I&psig=AFQjCNEEegRq2qxL1-9FJFyVe5kGP7MZyQ&ust=1388901453474732


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I’ve structured the explanation of I’ve structured the explanation of Climate Change in three parts…Climate Change in three parts…



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Part 1 Part 1 – Understanding the Climate Change Debate

Part 2 Part 2 – Understanding climate Understanding climate change in the context of change in the context of earth’s historyearth’s history

Part 3 Part 3 – Climate Modeling, obfuscatory terms & labels and the cost of Climate Change

This part has not been

completed yet and is not posted


PART 1: Understanding the Climate Change DebatePART 1: Understanding the Climate Change Debate

Time

This is a real dataset

• Before discussing an inflammatory issues such as Climate Change…

• Let’s start with a different data set, like this, with a variable on the Y-axis plotted against Time


Scientific Method

http://heyfreqs.files.wordpress.com/2010/08/scientific-method-model1.jpg

•Let’s also understand the “Scientific Method”•And how important “Peer Review” is to the process



Time

•Now, if you analyze this data set, what would be your conclusion?

“the variable trends downwarddownward over time”


Time

• If you wondered what the value of this variable would be in the future,

•You would use math to analyze the data and derive a formula

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2

1

0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6

If T = 0, V=3.5

If T = 3, V=1.9

If T = 6, V=0.4

Derived FormulaV = 3.5 – 0.517T


Time

3

2

1

0


• If you wondered what the value of this variable would be in the future,

•You would then use this formula to project what the variable is likely to be in the future

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Future Predictions

Zone

If T = 7, V=-0.1

0 1 2 3 4 5 6


•Maybe your research on this variable starts a movement about this variable and other scientists analyze your formula, derived from your dataset, and find it to be correct

Time



•After some time, 95% of all scientist who study this variable might use your formula and/or agree with your projections

Time



• The UN might assemble an international panel to validate your data, formula, and projections

• The media might cover the UN report and the general population watches, buys in, thus gaining popular support

Time



•You won’t understand why some people disagree with your formula & its projections

•You might label them label them as “deniers”

Time



•You might refuserefuse to “discuss alternate points of view” because you consider other views/ arguments as being based on

“pseudo-sciencepseudo-science”

Time



•You review all the support, both scientific and popular for your data analysis/formula/ projections

Time



Time


•Everyone is so sure of their position on this variable that they consider the matter “closed”; matter “closed”; “NO MORE CONSIDERATION of ALTERNATE VIEWS”

““Group-think” Group-think” prevails


Scientific Method

•As a result, different views on this variable become polarized and non-communicative;

--Peer review discussions shutdownPeer review discussions shutdown----•The progression of SCIENCE on this variable has progression of SCIENCE on this variable has stopped stopped




Scientific Method

This is important…“SCIENCE and DISCUSSION on

this variable have stopped!”ONCE THE SCIENTIFIC METHOD’S

PEER-REVIEW COMPONENTS ARE

SHUTDOWN, ANY “HYPOTHESIS”

BECOMES ONLY AN “OPINIONOPINION”

AND AS THE OLD SAYING GOES

“WE ALL HAVE ONE”!


Time

•But suppose that there is a larger set of data showing the changes of this variable over a MUCH LONGER PERIOD of time that is available but was not used…

Compressing the X-axis



•The dataset you originally started with is now just the red line on the complete dataset



•Upon examination, you see that the dataset you originally started with is only a few data points compared to all the data points available….



•Looking beyond the original dataset, you see the bigger picture of the reality of this variable



•The derived formula from your dataset projects a decline in the variable with time

•But in reality this variable actually increases with time as shown here…



•Since the derived formula incorrectly predicts the direction of the variable with time, the

FORMULA IS INCORRECT!FORMULA IS INCORRECT!


•Assuming the proper procedure was used to derive the formula and since the formula was derived FROM the dataset, it follows that something must be wrong WITH the dataset!something must be wrong WITH the dataset!


Time

•Time to take focus off the small dataset, scrap the original formula and start over…



Time

•Proper science would, upon realizing that there is much more data available in which to do a more thorough analysis, pursue a more pursue a more complex formula for the much larger datasetcomplex formula for the much larger dataset


Time

•Proper science would, upon realizing that there is much more data available in which to do a more thorough analysis, pursue a more pursue a more complex formula for the much larger datasetcomplex formula for the much larger dataset

THIS IS NOT THIS IS NOT HAPPENING!HAPPENING!


Time

•As a side-note, the complete dataset used in this example is actually the

HISTORY OF THE STOCK MARKETHISTORY OF THE STOCK MARKET and the dataset initially used is the

Oct 07 to Feb 09 crash period! Oct 07 to Feb 09 crash period!


•The crash period is a small dataset, only 9.4% of the whole dataset available

•Analysis of this limited dataset yielded the wrong conclusion

•As you know, the long-term stock market actually trends upward!


•So, in summary, we see that by using a limited dataset, the formula originally derived was erroneous and as a result the wrong conclusions about this variable were deduced


•Another way of summarizing…this limited limited dataset dataset caused major scientific problemsmajor scientific problems that lead to a wrong formulawrong formula, wrong conclusionswrong conclusions, wrong projections wrong projections and a breakdownbreakdown of the Scientific Method Peer Review Process


•So, what is needed to understand how this example relates to the climate change debate?


1. A paradigm shift paradigm shift to see that the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is using a very limited dataset, which ignores past cycles of global cooling & warming, on which to base the IPCC’s projections of global climate change

2. Use a dataset that has a much longer view of longer view of earth’s climate historyearth’s climate history: the Geologic Record

3. Stop labeling & bullying opposing views and maintain adherence to the tried and true Scientific Methodology Peer Review ProcessScientific Methodology Peer Review Process

WHAT IS NEEDED IS…WHAT IS NEEDED IS…


1. If the 650 million years of climate data in the Geologic Record is plotted on a paper that stretches from Austin to Dallasfrom Austin to Dallas, the section of data that the IPCC uses is only the last 6 inches of this charlast 6 inches of this chart!

2. The IPCC dataset is not recorded over a IPCC dataset is not recorded over a sufficient time span, sufficient time span, when compared to the Geologic Record, to yield reliable scientific conclusions about earth’s current warming phase

REGARDING THE NEEDED PARADIGM SHIFT…REGARDING THE NEEDED PARADIGM SHIFT…


With the new new paradigm shift paradigm shift you now have, it’s time to move on to understanding understanding climate change in climate change in the context of the context of earth’s historyearth’s history, let’s begin…Click poster above to begin

PART 2: CLIMATE FROM A GEOLOGIC PERSPECTIVE

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GLOBAL WARMING/COOLING

CYCLES FROM A GEOLOGIC PERSPECTIVE (meaning a very long time horizon)


GLOBAL WARMING/COOLING CYCLES

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•Let’s get this out of the way now….

”GLOBAL WARMING IS REAL and it is

NOT MAN-MADE!”• We know this, not from today’s media or

political reports, not from global temperature studies of the past 300 yrs or 1000 yrs or 50,000 yrs, but from the geologic record of more than 650 MILLION YEARS!



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• There have been at least 4 major cycles of global warming/cooling in earth’s history

• The warming periods seem to last much (3X) longer than the cooling periods (avg 107 million yrs vs 30 my)

• Avg Earth temp gets 20 degrees hotter than it is today

• CO2 levels were as much as 20 times what they are today

• All or almost all glaciers melt, sea level rises 400 feet from time of max cooling to max warming



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• The core chart that shows what has been happening to earth’s temperature over geologic time is from Dr. C. R. Scotese, a geologist at the University of Texas at Arlington (his PhD was from Univ. of Chicago), creator of the Paleomap Project to understand prehistoric earth

• Dr. Scotese is highly regarded among his peers and you will find countless references to his work on the internet

• For additional interest, see his Paleomap Project website at http://www.scotese.com/

• His methodology for mapping ancient climates is described at http://www.scotese.com/climate1.htm



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• Dr. Scotese’s Paleomap chart looks like this…

• I’ve added notes to his chart to increase clarity so that now it looks like this…


77F

50F

63F

500 400 300 200 100 50MYA

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CYLES OF WARMING/COOLING

• Geologic Record shows that Earth has gone thru multiple cycles of Cooling/Warming

• Cycles typically last tens of millions of years (avg: warm-107my, cool-30my)!46

Historical MAXIMUM temp of Earth

Historical AVERAGE temp of Earth

Historical MINIMUM temp of Earth

77F

50F

63F

500 400 300 200 100 50MYA

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• As a side note…• Notice that warming cycles I show above start at

the bottom of the cooling cycle, • not after rising above earth’s average temp; as

this chart shows47

77F

50F

63F

500 400 300 200 100 50MYA

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• To further clarify this terminology problem• Some see warming of the Globe occuring when

temps are above the blue bar, into the red zone• I use rising temps as the START of a warming

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77F

50F

63F

500 400 300 200 100 50MYA

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• Back to the science discussion…

• Last MINIMUM earth temperature was about 2 million years ago

• Earth has been warming ever since!Earth has been warming ever since!49

77F

50F

63F

500 400 300 200 100 50MYA

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• According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, earth’s current average temperature is 58.2 degF or about ½ way up to the historical average

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77F

50F

63F

500 400 300 200 100 50MYA

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• In summary, this chart shows the major cycles of warming/cooling over geologic time

• Geologic history shows us that it’s going to get A WHOLE LOT WARMER!51

77F

50F

63F

500 400 300 200 100 50MYA

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• Now let’s look at the last 800,000 years to see the variations within the major cycles

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GLACIATION IN LAST 800,000 YRS• After the Last Global

Cooling Period had reached it’s maximum (at star), temperatures started rising

• Some scientist use the concentration of CO2 as an indicator of temperatures

• Even with generally rising temps, there were periods of cooling; 4 Glaciation Periods in the last 800,000 years

• We will focus on the last one: Wisconsin

Years BP

CO2, ppm

11,000 yrs ago

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BUT WHAT ABOUT ALL THIS COOL WEATHER?

77F

50F

63F

500 400 300 200 100 50MYA

3Smooth avg curve is actually a line with

considerable variation when looked at closer

Looking even closer you can see the

considerable variation of data

Zooming in closer you can see the smaller

cycles within the general trend

WITHIN A MAJOR CYCLEWITHIN A MAJOR CYCLE ARE SEVERAL OTHER OTHER SMALLER CYCLESSMALLER CYCLES AND WITHIN THOSEWITHIN THOSE ARE LOTS OF LOTS OF

VARIATION FROM YEAR TO YEARVARIATION FROM YEAR TO YEAR AS THIS WILL SHOW…

The point is that climate can have drastic changes from drastic changes from

year to year year to year and still be on a still be on a general trendgeneral trend upward when measured with a geologic

timescale

Now, back to the major cycles…

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WHAT CAUSES THESE CYCLES

• We are still searching for the scientific explanation of these 4 major cycles

• It is likely related to either internal processes, solar activity, volcanic activity, or astrophysical phenomena, or all four, but is currently unknown

WHAT CAUSES THESE CYCLES

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• The shorter cycles, those of 100,000 yrs or less

are explained, at least partially, by a theory known as the “Milankovitch Cycle”

• The “Cycle” is the combined effect of three different attributes of Earth’s orbit, namely, it’s orbit around the sun, the changes in the tilt of it’s axis, and the changes in procession of the axischanges in procession of the axis

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WHY DO THESE CYLES OF WARMING/COOLING EXISTSChanges in:• Earth’s

orbital shape

• inclination of earth’s axis

• procession of earth’s axis

• Combined effect correlates well with paleotemp record

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SUMMARY• We believe that current evidence of Global Warming is based on

data over a relatively short time horizon of a few 10's or 100's or 1000's of years

• The short time horizon results in misleading "scientific" conclusions

• When looking at a much longer time horizon , like that of the geologic timescale, one can see that we have experienced at least 4 major Global Warming and Cooling cycles, none of which could have been caused by man. Within each of these major cycles are innumerable smaller but consequential mini-cycles of warming & cooling

• Global Warming of earth started again 1.8 million years ago

• Earth’s avg. temp today is only ¼ as high as it will eventually get; we’re not yet up to the avg Earth’s temp over geologic history

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SUMMARY• It is possible that man's lack of respect for the environment

might contribute to an acceleration of a natural process of global warming

• Until the scientific community can return to peer reviewed, non-biased, credible scientific study using all the data available rather than choosing what data to use, and until global warming scientific study stops bullying opposing viewsbullying opposing views, we should rely on common sense which leads us to conclude that we should be doing all we can to protect our environment and our home…

Earthhttp://www.climateshifts.org/wp-content/uploads/2010/08/earth.gif

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NEXT TO BE ADDED

Future revisions will include evaluations of the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on

Climate Change (IPCC) and the book “Cool It: The Skeptical Environmentalist” by

Bjorn Lomborg

Stay tuned!

climate from a geologic perspective 1 global warming/cooling cycles from a geologic perspective...

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