Climate Change Scenarios for Southeast Alaska

A brief summary based on the National Park Service Climate Change Scenarios Planning workshop held in Juneau, AK February 2012

Understanding the Science of Climate Change

There is now unequivocal scientific evidence that our planet is warming

How this warming will affect climate systems around the globe is an enormously complex question

Uncertainty and variability are inevitable

Climate change presents significant risks to natural and cultural resources

Understanding how to address uncertainty is an important part of climate change planning

http://geology.com/news/labels/Global-Warming.html

Why Scenario Planning?

Scenario planning allows managers to address multiple possible futures that are:

▪ Relevant▪ Divergent▪ Challenging▪ Plausible

What is most important?

What changes are most likely?

What changes will have the greatest impact?

What are we best able to predict?

How can we adapt to those changes?

www.snap.uaf.edu

What is SNAP’s role?

Scenarios are linked to SNAP modelsBasic climate models Linked climate models

▪ Season length▪ Shifting plants and animals

(biomes and ecosystems)▪ Soil temperature and

permafrost▪ Water availability▪ Forest fire

Models of how people use land and resources

Other models linked to climate and human behavior

Soil temperature at one meter depth: 1980’s, 2040’s, and 2080’s (Geophysical Institute Permafrost Lab, UAF)

Southeast Alaska temperature projections for Dec-Jan for selected decades

(5 model average,A1B scenario)

Winter 2090s

Winter 2050s

Winter 2010s

Southeast Alaska Day of FreezeProjections

5 Model Average – A1B scenario

Southeast Alaska Day of ThawProjections

5 Model Average – A1B scenario

Southeast Alaska Precipitation Projections(Annual Decadal Average)5 Model Average – A1B

scenario

Explaining Scenarios: A Basic GBN Scenario Creation Process

What are the implications of these scenarios for our strategic issue, and what actions should we take in light of them?

What is the strategic issue or decision that we wish to address?

What critical forces will affect the future of our issue?

How do we combine and synthesize these forces to create a small number of alternative stories?

As new information unfolds, which scenarios seem most valid? Does this affect our decisions and actions?

The 5 key steps required in any scenario planning process

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Step One: OrientWhat is the strategic issue or decision that we wish to address?

How can NPS managers best preserve the natural and cultural resources and values within their jurisdiction in the face of climate change?

How will climate change effects impact the landscapes within which management units are placed over the next 50 to 100 years?

To answer this challenge, we need to explore a broader question:

Klondike Gold Rush Nat’l Historical ParkPhoto credits: Jay Cable

Sitka National Historical Parkhttp://www.nps.gov/sitk/index.htm

Glacier Bay National ParkPhoto credit: Stuart Edwards

Copyright © 2010 Monitor Company Group, L.P. — ConfidentialERT-HLY 2010 1

CRITICAL UNCERTAINTIESBIOREGION: ______________

Over the next 50 – 100 years, what will happen to . . . ?

Step Two: Explore

What critical forces will affect the future of our issue?

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Critical forces generally have unusually high impact and unusually high uncertainty

Extreme Weather Events (storms/precipitation)

-20%

+50%

Seasonality of Water Flow Historical flow/timing

abnormal flow/timing

Driver 1

Dri

ver

2

Combining two selected drivers creates four possible futures

1

2

4

3

CLIMATE SCENARIOSBIOREGION: ______________

Seasonality of Water Flow

2 1

4 3

Extr

eme

Even

ts

More extreme events (+50%)

Lower extreme events (-20%)

Abnormal flow rates/timing

Historical flow rates/timing

“Nested Scenarios”?

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Senior commitment, international alignment, long term perspectives

Lack of senior commitment, varied

approaches/alignment, short term concerns

Broad understanding Heightened urgency

Widespread indifference Competing concerns

“Big problems, big efforts”

“Riots and revolution”

“Wheel-spinning”

“Is anyone out there?”

Nesting each story in a social framework creates 16 possibilities:

Socio-Political

Nested Scenario DetailsBIOREGION:___________

Describe This World in 2030

Major Impacts on the Bioregion

Issues Facing Management

BioregionClimate_______________

Step 3: Synthesize

The 16 possible futures created in the preceding steps must be narrowed down to 3-4 scenarios that are relevant, divergent, challenging, and pertinent. Each has it’s own narrative (story).

Impacts: Example from one scenario

More and more annual disasters are striking SE AK, and gov’t and people are working together to deal with major issues and to find and coordinate responses.

Community health and economic health are both emphasized, meaning not just solutions such as starting a hatchery, but also finding holistic solutions to maintain ways of life.

If fisheries and forestry are lost, what is replacing them? Sustainable tourism? Selective logging? Renewable energy, Biomass? Tidal? Wind? Geothermal? Hydro? All these resources are so close together, it’s unusual.

Individuals all feel interdependence and feel their important role in the communities.

Seasonal crop failures balanced by other crops – shifting resources rather than eliminated.

A combination of fire and floods destroy the cultural resources in Skagway and it becomes a ghost town and a more remotely managed park

50% of the small communities have to evacuate due to natural disasters, and are reabsorbed into other communities.

Management faces infrastructure upgrades, need to be more disaster resistant

Collapse of commercial fishery Reduced potable water availability Loss of life – or shifting from death from social ills to

death via disaster.

Transportation disruptions with ferries, airports.. Energy, buildings, waste disposal, social health

networks, communications Willingness and ability to create and pay for

engineered solutions, eg hatcheries Mariculture? Logging out the dead trees, but planting something

that matches new ecosystem conditions Decide how to switch from wilderness to more

managed areas mixed with areas of dynamic change

Parks are now managed for different resources. There used to be glaciers in Yosemite, but people still go there. Different visitor experience is being managed in different parks – to see new energy sources, to see glaciers in Wrangell St Elias., from soft adventure to extreme adventure.

More flight-seeing to see reduced glaciers Major shifts in habitats, species, and tourism.

Recolonization by willow in deglaciated areas, attracts moose and deer. Forest becomes grassland or engineered forests. Might attract elk, bison, grouse. Mountain goats and other species move higher.

Health emergencies help spark adaptations and change.

Reduction in timber productivity Invasive species that may wipe out local species, in

addition to more benign range shift.

Step 4: ActCategorizing Options to Help Set Strategy

Robust: Pursue only those options that would work out well (or at least not hurt you too much) in any of the four scenarios

OR

Bet the Farm / Shaping: Make one clear bet that a certain future will happen — and then do everything you can to help make that scenario a reality

OR

Hedge Your Bets / Wait and See: Make several distinct bets of relatively equal size

OR

Core / Satellite: Place one major bet, with one or more small bets as a hedge against uncertainty, experiments, and real options

Hedge Your Bets

Hedge Your Bets

Hedge Your Bets

Hedge Your Bets

Core

RobustSatellite

Satellite

Bet theFarm

Hedge Your Bets

Hedge Your Bets

Hedge Your Bets

Hedge Your Bets

Core

RobustSatellite

Satellite

Bet theFarm

Important Management ActionsActions common to all scenarios

Assess the need for fire and flood plans

Mitigate natural degraded habitat

Increased collaboration between tribes and government

Refer to climate change when making plans

Emergency op plans for fire, glaciers, fjords, …

Proactively protect, e.g., roads/trails away from sensitive spots

Reduce cost by more energy-efficient utilities/opportunities

Revitalize programs to cover recreation shoulder seasons

Community forums

Vulnerability assessments for culturally-sensitive sites

Monitor stream flow, forest health, glacier positions/mass, land cover change

Risk assessment for glacial outburst floods, emergency planning

Conduct culturally-sensitive subsistence harvest surveys to ensure access

Raise awareness at a local level of climate change impacts

Adjust regulations to address sub needs, seasons, bag limits

Evaluate capacity to adjust to changing demands

Cultural Implications

Erosion of traditional sites Conflicts over wildlife uses Conflicts over subsistence regulations Timing of fish runs/bird migrations off Longer season for hiking trail use Historical resources damaged or lost Loss of infrastructure (washouts, etc) –

communities lost/relocated Loss of subsistence resources (salmon, berries, …) New subsistence species/resources (bison, deer,

fish, cougar, elk) Loss of seasonal subsistence patterns Failure of community networks

Cultural adaptation

Increased outreach and education to communities Risk assessment for vulnerable cultural resources &

recovery plan Document oral histories and make accessible Assessment and management of newly recovered

cultural resources Traditional Ecological Knowledge in planning Co-management Invasive management Create cooperation at local level Plan for budget issues Value-based management

How to make hard decisions? Values are changing—need a transparent decision process