96. punters bible

7/30/2019 96. Punters Bible

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SPECIAL THANKS

I would like to take this opportunity to thank the many people

who have help aid the creation of this publication.

First and foremost I would like to thank Bernard Hibbert who

has made a huge contribution by providing me with useful

material, research, statistics, and guidance.

I would like to thank the unfortunate people who have proof

read the text contained herein. If find any mistakes you knowwho can blam - Gareth Hooson, Linda Hooson, Josie Hunt.

Copying one persons works is called plagiarism, copying

several peoples work is referred to as research. With this in

mind I would also like to thank the many pioneers andprofessionals who have shared their wisdom and aided us in

our battle with the bookmaker.


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INTRODUCTION

Welcome to the Punters Bible.

In the following introduction I will explain the primary aims of

this book, why I believe it is a useful book for both the amateur

and professional alike and also why I believe it fills a gapinghole in the world of horse race betting literature.

The idea of betting on horse races and achieving the status of

a successful professional gambler is one that appealed to mewhen, through circumstance, I became involved in the

publication of horse racing information. When I set about

learning the art and science of the game little did I know just

how difficult the task would be. As a member of the MTV

Generation I found most of the literature on the subject as dull

as dishwater.

The world of horse racing has a rich and varied language of its

own, which to me sounded like double-dutch. Many of the

books in circulation are American in origin and this

compounded the difficulties involved in learning the skill of

successful race assessment. I also found that much of the

literature was littered with stories from days past, dreary

recollections, and much that wasnt for me at all interesting.

I searched in vain for a good, easy to understand and relatively

comprehensive guide to betting on horse racing. The few

books that I found appealing and simple to understand did not

provide enough information, particularly in regards to the

strategic aspect of the battle with the bookmaker.

I decided therefore to write my own instruction manual on the


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sport, one that would appeal to such as myself, for surely I am

not alone?

Once again little did I know what a challenge writing such abook would be. I must admit in many ways I have failed. As I

delved deeper into the subject more and more questions

presented themselves to me which I felt needed answering toprovide a comprehensive guide. This is a reflection of the

depth and rich nature of the subject. Eventually I had to say,

Enough is enough. The publishers have been more than

patient!

I do believe, however that you will find herein a great deal of

useful information for the aspiring horse race bettor.

The primary aim of this book is to provide a solid foundation of

knowledge for the world of horse racing. I have attempted to

provide an explanation of the nature of the game whichprogresses in a coherent and logical way while at the same

time enabling the reader to open the book at any particular

point and understand its contents.

The first section, Betting Basics, provides a quick introduction

to the game, the factors you need to consider, understanding

odds and racecards, etc. It has been written to get you up and

running as quickly and effortlessly as possible, without leavingyou vulnerable to the might of the bookmaker.

You will also find herein a guide to the rapidly evolving worlds

of spread betting and betting exchanges. This information

provides a brief overview with an emphasis on horse racing,

though much of it can be applied to other sports.


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With the A-Z section I have attempted to answer any

remaining questions. Hopefully this section will also help you

overcome difficulties in understanding the language of thesport. Some of the information represents the bare minimum of

what one needs to know to achieve success as a bettor and

which is not included in the Betting Basics section.

I have set out to supply a number of strategies that will aid you

in your battle with the bookmaker. These strategies come in

various shapes and sizes. You will find a number of systemsthat consist of a few simple rules that have for many years

produced a profit. The systems included are aimed to serve as

useful templates for ones betting. You will also find a number

of strategies that are more akin to vague concepts than a

system.

Hopefully I will also inspire you with the knowledge that thebookmaker can indeed be beaten and theres no reason why

you shouldnt be the one to beat him.

To enable the reader to absorb and understand the information

as quickly and easily as possible I have tried adopted a style of

writing that is as clear and as simple as possible. I have also

kept unnecessary waffle to a minimum thereby presenting the

reader with pure information.

Obviously the only person who can decide whether I have

succeeded in my aims is you the reader. I hope you find this

book to be a valuable and educational read. I am confident

that you will. If you have any criticisms, comments or

contributions of any kind I will be most grateful for your

f e e d b a c k . Y o u c a n e m a i l m e a t


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[email protected]. I will make every effort to

answer all correspondences.


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THE GAME

The urge to gamble is so universal and its practice sopleasurable that I assume it must be evil Heywood Broun

Betting on purely random games has always seemed to me tobe somewhat pointless. Horse racing is different. Its possiblefor a gambler to use his skill and judgment to help predict theoutcome. It is also a challenge that can prove to be mostfascinating and yield great financial rewards.

As an intellectual pastime it can lead to many unexpectedavenues of thought and areas of knowledge. It can also lead tofinancial independence and an escape from the day-to-daydrudgery of a 9 to 5 lifestyle.

Of course luck does play a role. There are many factors thatcannot be accounted for, such as the mood of the horse.However the fact remains that if you have the necessary skill,

judgment and discipline it is possible to be a long-termsuccessful and profitable gambler.

Because there are many factors that influence the outcome ofa race betting on horse racing is interesting and challenging. Ifyou are successful with your predictions it is also most

rewarding. In fact, no other game is as rewarding and yetbacking horses can be as intellectually challenging as chess.

The Revolution is Nigh! The world of horse racing hasundergone many dramatic and exciting changes for racebettors. The abolition of betting tax, the ascent of the internetand spread betting has resulted in completely altering the wayin which a gambler can view betting. Furthermore these


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changes have made it easier for an astute gambler to make along-term profit.

Punters can now bet against fellow punters in a more directfashion and obtain much better value, which means more profitfor you the punter. You also have the option of playing the roleof bookmaker by laying horses.

A range of spread betting markets exist, which provide theopportunity of betting on such things as winning distances orthe performance of trainers. The benefits of such an approachinclude better value and the fact that the more right you are themore you win (and visa versa).

All in all the world of racing has undergone many dramatic andexciting changes and is still quickly evolving. Opportunities forprofitable betting are more numerous than at any other time inthe history of the game. Hopefully this book will provide a

useful introduction to this exciting world and many of itsmodern developments.


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THE QUICKSTART GUIDE TO

SUCCESFUL HORSE RACE BETTING


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FACTORS TO CONSIDER WHENASSESSING A RACE

One may be tempted to think that assessing the likely winnerof a race would simply involve deciding which horse is thefastest needless to say its not that simple.

There are many factors that can influence the outcome of arace. Some factors can be assessed and some cannot. Thehorses form, the jockey, the ground conditions, etc. In thefollowing section we will examine some of the factors that canbe assessed.

Previous Performance A horses previous performance isknown as its form. It is a very important factor when assessinga horses chance of winning.

Class If a horse is described as better class it implies thatone horse is superior to another. Form is relative to the classof the event in which it is recorded. It is therefore necessary toknow the standard of each race you are studying whenbuilding up a picture of a horses form.

On the Flat there are seven different classifications, from class

1 class 7. Class 1 races are Group and Listed, the cream ofthe years events with high amounts of prize money. Class 7races are regional races with small amounts of prize moneyand apprentice or amateur races of similar value.

Over the Jumps, there are seven ranks, from A (races rununder the jumping Pattern) to H (hunter chases and National

Hunt Flat races of low value).


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Although it is not necessary to understand the classificationsystem inside out, you do need to be aware that form in a

Class B race will be of a higher standard than form in a ClassF race.

Speed of a Horse You would think that assessing the likelywinner of a race would simply involve looking at the horsesspeed. Unfortunately its not that simple!

The fastest horse should win the race, all things being equal.In the world of horse racing however its a rare occasion whenall things are equal. For instance, many races are not trulyrun and this is particularly true over long distances. If a pace isset early on the race can develop into a tactical affair with

jockeys playing a cat and mouse game.

The speed in which a horse runs a race is timed. You can find

this information in the Racing Post. It is probably best todisregard this information, with the exception of sprints -particularly on all-weather tracks. In these races the excellentTOPSPEED, of the Racing Post, comes into its own. It is wellworth consulting the Topspeed ratings for all races up to onemile. If your horse is among the top rated you should find thisencouraging.

The Race Distance Although some horses are versatile mostperform differently over different distances. Some are good atsprinting whereas others are better over long distances. Whatthe ideal distance for a horse is will not be obvious until it hasrun a few times. If a horse has never run over a particulardistance its previous performance will give you an indication asto its stamina and how well it should perform.


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Ideally, your chosen selection should be proven over the daysrace distance. You will find this information in a typical dailynewspaper, details of which will be presented in something like

the following format.

40/231-4121 Red Rum 14 (C&D1 D2) F Dettori 5 11-7 HowardJohnson 68

The C&D1 (underlined) tells us that the horse is a course anddistance winner on one occasion. The D2 informs us that thehorse is a distance winner on two occasions.

If your horse is not proven over the days race distance you willneed to assess its previous performance. Several factorsaffect how a particular performance testifies to a horsesstamina - the nature of the track, the pace at which the racewas run and the state of the going.

A horse running strongly at the finish of a race and beyondcould perform well over a longer distance. A horse that showsgood pace and then fades probably needs a reduction indistance.

The going can make a difference. Sometimes a horse will getthe distance on fast ground having previously failed in testingconditions.

The course may be a factor. A horse may get the trip ontodays course having failed on a more testing track. Forinstance, a horse that manages to stay on at the end of a trulyrun race, over two miles at Newmarket in soft going can beassumed to have more stamina than a horse that won a slowlyrun race over two miles on firm going around a much tighter

and more level track, such as Folkestone. The horse that ran


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at Newmarket is more likely to get the trip - meaning it shouldlast out the full race distance.

Two important points to note are: Do not equate stamina on the Flat with stamina on the

same trip over Jumps. Be wary if a horse is trying a new distance for the very

first time.

Age and Experience of the Runners If a horse has onlyrecently been trained to jump it is more likely to fall in aNational Hunt race. This is one example of why it is importantto consider a horses experience.

You will have to use your own judgment when deciding at whatstage the age of a horse becomes a negative factor. An olderhorse will be more experienced but you also have to considerits fitness levels which will deteriorate with age (For more

details see the A-Z Age).

The Trainer The trainer is the most influential personassociated with a horse since it is a trainers abilities that candetermine whether the horse reaches its optimum ability.Training horses is both an art and a science that requiresconsiderable skill.

Trainers use a variety of methods for training a horse andsome are better than others. It is wise to be informed on suchmatters. Choosing a stable to follow is a worthwhile exercise. Ithelps you specialise and think strategically as you get to knowhow your yard operates.

Often trainers perform particularly well at certain courses and

not at others. A trainer may specialise in training horses to win


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a specific race and may succeed year in and year out. Trainershave great difficulty finding winners and when they succeedthey often try and repeat their success at the same track and

in the same race. One trainer has a runner every November atthe same track and wins every time, always at good prices.

Another trainer has had 54 consecutive losers at one majorcourse. This track is near to his stable and he has no intentionof winning. His aim is to simply take his horses out for a run toenable them to get used to the world of racing.

Following particular trainers at particular tracks is by no meansan original idea, but it is an idea that often produces excellentprofits. For instance, at the time of writing (2003) One topNational Hunt stable would have LOST you 920.88 backingall the runners to 10 level stakes at Aintree over the last sixseasons! Yet the same bet at Ascot would have WON you920.68! A top northern stable has regularly sent horses toSandown without a single winner over the last 6 seasons? But

a 10 bet on all the runners at Newcastle would have WONover 1,380. An excellent publication to help you keep abreastof trainer trends is Trainers4Courses by Ken Turrell andavailable at www.sportsworldpublishing.co.uk.

Take note of trainers comments in race reports or interviews.You can pick up valuable clues about future plans.

The larger well-established yards are where most of thereliable and consistent horses can be found, but dont ignorethe smaller stables (be aware though that some of these aregambling stables and are sometimes unpredictable).

When a stable is on a roll it is advisable to pay particularattention to it. The racing press offers detailed information on


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which trainers are in good form and which trainers haveparticularly good records on particular courses.

If a surprising number of fancied runners from a particularstable lose it could be due to the fact that it has been infectedby a virus, in which case it would be wise to avoid the stablefor the time being.

Top Trainers, such as Henry Cecil, Sir Michael Stout, JohnDunlop and Saeed Bin Suroor, can be expected to win around20% of the races they contest. Pay attention to any stablescoring this sort of strike rate. The seasons statistics arepublished regularly in the Racing Post.

The Going This means the condition of the ground. It needs tobe taken into consideration because the condition of theground can affect a horses performance. All-weather tracksremove this factor because the going remains the same.

The official going is recorded in the following stages, Hard,Firm, Good to Firm, Good, Dead, Good to Soft, Yielding,Sticky, Soft, Holding, Heavy.

A sudden change in the going is probably one of the maincauses of bad bets. You need to be aware of any preferenceyour selection has for underfoot conditions.

Very few horses CAN act on virtually any going. Most,however, cannot. Probably the majority of Flat horses preferGood or Good to Firm going but if a wet spell strikes and theground goes soft we can throw the form book out of thewindow and start again.


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At the start of the Flat season we can have a confusedsituation particularly with promising three year olds. Theirprevious runs as a two year old may have only been on soft

going at the end of the last season. Will they like todays firmerconditions? If it comes down to guess work - NO BET.

In National Hunt racing the majority of horses probably prefersofter going. However, at certain times when the ground driesout there are good opportunities for jump horses who relish thegood to firm conditions.

Another consideration, when assessing performance is the factthat there are differences in the same going at differentcourses. For example, Chepstow, Kempton Park and Aintreecan get especially heavy when conditions are very wetwhereas the going at Newmarket tends not to be as soft. Thisis due to the fact that the course drains so well. A little courseknowledge is certainly helpful.

Like many other aspects of betting the going is often referredto in jargon. Here is a short glossary -

Top of the ground - firm, fast going. Bottomless - very heavy. Cut in the ground - on the soft side of good. Lively - on the firm side. A sound surface - not too soft. Getting his tow in - on the soft side.

The Jockey Jockeys vary in experience and ability. A jockeysperformance can be assessed by looking at how many winnershe has ridden in relation to his losing races. For instance one

jockey may have won 50 races whereas another jockey mayhave won 100 races. The jockey that has won 100 races is not

necessarily better than the jockey that has only won 50. The


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winner of 100 races may have ridden horses in 300 races,whereas the jockey with only 50 winners to his name mayhave only ridden horses in 60 races. Looking at these statistics

one should come to the conclusion that the rider of 60 races ismost likely to be the better of the two jockeys. It is not theamount of races won but rather the percentage of wins thatcounts.

The best jockeys tend to ride the best horses and thereforethey are in the best position to win the most races. This isanother factor you need to consider.

It is certainly true that a top rider can make all the differenceand that the jockey won the race. However, a jockey is only asgood as the ride he gets so do not attach as much importanceto the jockey as the trainer.

Having said that, if one of your selections is ridden by one of

the top jockeys this should boost your confidence. Top jockeyssuch as F. Dettori, K. Fallon and A.P. McCoy can be expectedto win at least 20% of their races and make the frame around50% of the time.

Backing top jockeys is a popular strategy amongst punters,which affects the betting market to such an extent that theybecome poor value.

Winning runs for a jockey can do wonders for their confidenceand therefore it may be wise to pay them particular attention.

It is also worth paying attention to jockeys who performnoticeably well at tracks that are notoriously difficult to ride, forinstance Bath, Catterick or Epsom.


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Also, pay heed to a top jockey who has decided to ride at anobscure meeting for an unfashionable stable. It may indicate astrong horse.

The Horses Condition To be in a position to be able toassess the horses condition, you need to be at the racetrack.There you can use your own judgment to determine whetherthe horse looks fit, well and in good condition. The behaviourof a horse prior to the race can be an indication as to how itwill perform during the race. Does it look nervous or relaxed?

Many bad bets can be avoided by observing the horse in thepaddock prior to a race, providing you know what you arelooking for. The following is a brief guide to some of theindicators of a horses mental and physical state.

The Unfit Horse and the Fit Horse The unfit horse may have adull looking coat and a flabby stomach area. It may slouch

around the paddock and it could be sweating more than theother horses. If the jockey has to push it along to raise a gallopon its way to the start you know the horse is not at its physicalpeak. Further signs to look for are gnarled, nobly knees andforelegs or bandages and the smell of liniment. Going down tothe start the horse may have a short bumpy stride due toarthritic legs.

Conversely the fit horse will have a shiny coat and well definedrippling muscles and will not be sweating to excess. The horseshould display well being. All common sense stuff really!

Another physical advantage is its size. Tall horses aregenerally faster than shorter horses. They have longer strides,can cope better with traffic and they are better equipped to

carry weight.


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Psychological State The mental state of a horse is alsoimportant. If a horse is frightened or angry this will be a major

disadvantage.

An angry horse will have ears that are flat back against itshead. It will not co-operate with the handlers and it will thrashits head around. It may also lash out with its back legs andnaturally the jockey will be wary of mounting the horse.

A frightened horse will appear jumpy and will be unusuallysweaty, particularly underneath the forelegs and behind thehind legs. The horse may also resist being mounted and pullvery hard going down to the start.

Another sign to look out for is lack of experience. If a horse isgreen it may carry its head high, looking around curiously. Itsears will turn repeatedly, demonstrating its unfamiliarity with

the race track. Such a horse should generally be avoided.

The Eager, the Ready, and the Unenthusiastic HorseInaddition to showing the signs associated with the fit horse aneager horse will strut around the paddock and will appearmore active than the other horses. When going to post it willreach a full gallop quickly. Its ears will be pricked up and alertand it will radiate well-being.

The unenthusiastic horse will look uncomfortable. It may wellbe that the horse associates racing with pain or it may have itsmind on other matters, such as a member of the opposite sex.If you see two horses of the opposite sex extending theirnoses towards each other beware, their minds may not be onthe race.


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Course / Track Due to their historical origins, racecoursetracks in Great Britain come in many shapes and sizes. As aresult different horses are more suited to different courses.

Chester racecourse is an almost circular course of around onemile in length whereas Newmarket is a course of greaterdistance (two and a half miles). On the Newmarket trackhorses only make one turn and can race over a straight of oneand quarter miles.

Courses also vary in respect to the direction in which thehorses race (left handed or right handed). Some horsesappear to perform better when racing in a particular direction.

Also courses are not perfectly level. Some require horses torun downhill whereas others require them to run uphill.

You will need to consider how the course is going to affect theperformance of a horse.

Some horses perform well at some tracks and not on others.There are many different reasons for this, such as the horsesstyle of running. A long striding galloping animal, for example,will not like tight turning tracks such as Chester.

The following lists of tracks are courses where if a horse haswon previously it is a major advantage due of the peculiarities

of the track. It is worth paying particular attention to suchhorses.

FlatAscot Beverley Brighton CarlisleCatterick Chester Epsom GoodwoodLingfield Newcastle Newmarket

Pontefract Southwell Wolverhampton


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National HuntAintree Ascot Carlisle Catterick

Cheltenham Fakenham Fontwell HaydockHexham Kelso Leicester LingfieldNewcastle Plumpton Sandown Towcester

The quirkier courses are more likely to produce coursespecialists.

When assessing form it is important to remember that form atthe quirkier tracks should not be taken at face value, when ahorse is running on a different course. For instance Chester

form often does not workout elsewhere. The drawon this track is a crucialelement due to the verytight shape of the course.

The Draw Starting stallsare used in Flat races toensure that all the horsesstart at the same time. Thestall from which a horsestarts can affect theoutcome of his race. This

is because on a lot ofracecourses there area d v a n t a g e s a n ddisadvantages to startingin certain positions in thestalls.

DRAW WIN

1 21.2

2 12.1

3 15.2

4 21.2

5 19.4

6 3.6

7 8.3

8 5.3

9 PLUS 0

Horses drawn wide hardly ever win. The

inside draws won almost 90% of the time.

LINGFIELD Equitrack. Winning Drawpositions 5 furlongs. (2 year period)

DRAW WIN

1 21.1

2 15.8

3 15.8

4 21.1

5 11.1

6 0

CHESTER Winning draw position 5

furlongs


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The draw for which position a horse will occupy in the stalls atthe start of a Flat race is made the day before the race and isdrawn by lot. There is no draw for places in National Hunt

racing.

Number one in the draw occupies stall number one in the farleft-hand position.

Generally speaking it is not a good idea to use drawadvantage exclusively to find winners. Rather use it to boost orlessen confidence in your selection. Obviously a good startfrom the gate is essential to capitalise on any draw advantagein sprints.

The Racing Post prints Draw Advantage figures at the top ofeach Race Card - so always check this out.

Weather Conditions This is another factor to consider and it

is of particular importance in Great Britain, simply because theweather is erratic. It is important that you take note of theweather forecasts. If rain is forecast this may have an effect onthe going.

The OwnerThe owner is obviously the person who finds themoney to buy the horse. It is the owner who ultimately isresponsible for paying the bills, deciding who handles the

horse, how the horse is handled, and which races the horseruns in. In practise many of these responsibilities are handedover to the trainer who generally has the most influence on ahorses performance.

Owning racehorses is not usually a profit making exercisesince the majority of racehorses fail to win enough money to

cover the cost of looking after them. Ownership of racehorses


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is generally for those who are passionate about horse racing.Racing clubs and syndicates are now commonplace andmembers can buy shares in racehorses.

The owner of a horse is another factor you can consider. Liketrainers, owners have varying rates of success. Some ownersare better at spotting good quality horses with lots of potential.

Weight In the Classics all horses carry the same weight(except for an allowance to fillies in the Two ThousandGuineas, St Leger, and the Derby). The same is true of thepremier National Hunt races.

In Weight-for-Age races weights are placed on a horse tocounter balance the advantage that a more mature horse willhave over a younger rival. The Weight-for-Age scale lays downthe designated differences for horses of different ages overdifferent distances at different times of the year.

The effect of weight is most prominent in Handicaps. Therunners in these races are allotted different weights to rendertheir chances theoretically equal.

Many professionals will tell you weight is an important factor tobe considered. However, my advice is to ignore weight.

Handicapping is a very complicated subject. It is perhaps bestto rely upon the experts to point you in the right direction. If ahorse is carrying too much weight the clues will be obvious inthe POSTMARK ratings, SPOTLIGHT comments and the pricequoted. (Postmark is The Racing Posts private handicapper.His ratings are found on the right hand side of the race cardunderneath the allotted weight. The top rated horse is the one

he considers to be the best-handicapped horse in the race. So,


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if your horse is among the top 3 or 4 rated you can be sure it isfairly handicapped on its last performance.)

Taking weight off poor horses wont make them run any faster.Putting weight onto a good horse will EVENTUALLY slow itdown.

The Betting Market It is worth paying attention to how theodds on a horse altered between the time betting opened onthe event to the start of the race. If a horses odds shorten thismeans it is being backed by other punters, whereas if the oddslengthen it is attracting less money. It is important to considerthe course market when assessing the betting moves. At a bigmeeting a major move is of greater significance than at a smallmeeting. This is because at smaller meetings, where thecrowds are not so great, it takes little off-course money tomanipulate the market. You will find more information andadvice in the A-Z section under Betting Market.

Time Since Last Race Of course, recent form is the bestform. Many professional gamblers will not back a horse whenits form dates back from a period too long before the race.Sometimes though old form is all you have to work with, forinstance, on a seasonal debut. Most newspapers print thenumber of days since the horse last raced. Sometimes, for ahorse that runs season after season it may need a run or two

to get to their top form, though sometimes they perform wellthe first time out. Ultimately it depends on the horse, so asalways it pays to be aware.


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FACTORS THAT YOU CANNOTASSESS - THE GLORIOUS

UNCERTAINTY

They are some other factors that affect the outcome of a racewhich cannot be assessed. These factors add an element ofluck to horse racing and no amount of studying form or anyother factor can protect you from this.

The Horses Mood Just like humans horses have off days.Sometimes the horse may not wish to cooperate and willrefuse to run, not enter the starting stalls, refuse to jumpfences etc. If a horse is well-known to be a bit of a PrimaDonna, it is advisable that you avoid backing it.

Other Horses It is impossible to know how your chosen horsewill be affected by other horses in the race. Your selection maybe boxed in or bumped into. Another horse may run across itspath or bring down your horse over the jumps.

False Starts A false start can ruin a horses chance ofwinning. In the 1993 Grand National, Britains most famousrace, a false start resulted in several horses running the entirecourse. Such an incident ruins the horses chances of winning.

Weights Weights have been known to fall off a horse during arace in which case the horse will be disqualified. A horse canbe disqualified for other reasons too.

Other Factors You Cannot Assess Many other incidents canoccur at race meetings. Jockeys go the wrong way, horses goon rampages, etc. Although these incidents do not happen

often it is worth bearing it in mind that anything can happen


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and no horse is guaranteed to win. By keeping your stakes toa reasonable level you can ensure you do not lose a largeamount when these non-assessable factors affect the race.

We will discuss methods of staking later.

Jockey and trainer tactics are another example of factors thatare often impossible for outsiders to assess. For instancesometimes a trainer will have no intention for a particular horseto win since they are only taking the horse out for the exerciseand experience. Consequently the race is not truly run.Corruption is another factor that adds a random element tohorse racing.

These random aspects can often appear to work in favour ofthe bookmakers and can attack the moral of a gambler. This isin part due to the fact that a bookmaker does not lay all hiseggs in one basket by relying upon one particular race and hespreads his liabilities across any number of races. Conversely

gamblers often do not think long-term and rely on making aprofit on just a few races.

One cannot expect to make a consistent profit by thinkingshort-term and should aim to make a profit over at least a fullseason.


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ADDITIONAL BASIC INFORMATION

FOR THE AMATUREAll-Weather Racing There are several all-weather tracks inthe UK including Southwell Lingfield and Wolverhampton. All-weather is a term referring to racing on synthetic surfaces.Because of the nature of the surface it can favour front-runners(horses which can reach the front early, keep their lead and goon to win). Come from behind horses have difficultyaccelerating on sand so pace setters have a real advantage.There are two reasons for this. Sand provides less traction forcoming off the pace and horses in the rear have to cope withkick back (flying material kicked back by the horse).

Remember - do not bet on a horse having its first run on sand.It also pays to follow jockeys and trainers who have a proven

record on the surface.

Obtaining Information In the UK thoroughbred racing hasbeen well documented for many years. As a result a wealth ofinformation is available to the race analyst concerning all racesand the horses that compete.

Details are available on the peculiarities of each track, whether

they rise and fall or whether they are flat etc. For each horseall previous race details including times, race distance, courseconditions and race commentary are available. Jockey andtrainer statistics are also easily accessible. All this informationis useful to the race analyst.

A great deal of information is given by race cards found in

standard daily newspapers. The format of this information


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varies from publication to publication. To save a lot of spaceabbreviations are used.

There are also a number of specialist papers. These containconsiderably more information than your normal dailynewspapers.

In Britain the only daily paper dedicated to horseracing is TheRacing Post which includes very extensive and sophisticatedstatistics.

The official form book is published by Raceform on behalf ofthe British Horse Racing Board. This publication providesextensive details of every race run in Great Britain as well asthe major overseas events.

Timeform produce a number of publications. One suchexample is the annual Racehorses. This lists and discusses

every racehorse. The daily Timeform Racecard providesdetailed runner by runner analysis of every race at everymeeting. You will also find Timeform's own rating as to ahorses chance of success.

Reading Newspaper Form Your daily national newspaper islikely to be home to a great deal of useful information which

needs to be decoded to be understood.

Backroom newspaper staff work around the clock to providedetails on the progress of horses and other useful information.Some of it will be presented in a format similar to the followingline:


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40/231-4121 Red Rum 14 (C&D1 D2) F Dettori 5 11-7 HowardJohnson 68

The first nine digits of the above line represent the horsesposition in the last 9 races. The hyphen separates the lastseason from the current season. Therefore the position of thehorse the last race it ran was first place. The bold typerepresents races on the all-weather. A 0 amongst thesenumbers normally means indicates a placing out of the firstfour. The (/) separates the last season from the season beforeand so on.

If you were to find a (F) amongst these numbers this wouldindicate that the horse fell. A (U) would mean that the horseunseated its rider. (P) means that the horse was pulled up bythe jockey which can happen for a number of reasonsincluding injury to the horse. (R) shows that the horse refusedto start.

The figure 14 after the horses name (Red Rum) indicates thenumber of days since last run. The C&D1 tells us that thehorse is a course and distance winner on one occasion. TheD2 informs us that the horse is a distance winner on twooccasions. The name of the trainer is F Dettori. The age of thehorse is 5. The 11-7 informs us that the horse will be carryingeleven stone seven. Howard Johnson is the jockey in todays

race. 68 is the form rating provided by the newspaper.

At the top of the list of runners you should find the details ofthe prize money attached to the race and a figure in bracketsindicates the amount the winner will receive. You will also finddetails on the distance and type of race.


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Below the list of runners you will find the betting forecast whichis an estimate made the day before the race by newspaperstaff. The odds will be in a constant state of fluctuation as soon

as the betting market opens.

Checking Your Results There are many places to obtainresults for previous races including newspapers, teletext, thebetting shop, telephone racing lines, etc.

When you are checking the results be sure to look out for anyfactors that will affect the settlement of the bet in question suchas Rule 4 deductions and dead heats.

Do not be afraid to question a bookmakers settlement of a betif you think that it has been incorrectly settled.

Novices Normally horses do not start competing in races untilthe age of around 2 years. A novice is a horse that is

competing in its first race. Because you have no previous formon which to judge the horse it is wise to avoid backing them.The only indication you will have on such a horses futureperformance is by looking at the racing record of its parentsand the other offspring of these parents.

Inexperience is another factor that needs to be taken intoconsideration before backing a novice. Horses will often be

nervous for their first few races.

Considering both these factors it is advisable to wait a whilebefore backing a horse. If you wait a few races you have moreinformation to assess the ability of the horse and it will be moreexperienced and less nervous.


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The Weigh-In When a race has been run the winning horseand all the placed horses must report to the Clerk of theScales within a certain time to be weighed in. This ensures

that they were carrying the correct weight during the race.

When all is well the weighed in signal is announced. Once theweigh-in has been announced as far as the punter isconcerned the result will stand regardless of any subsequentevents.

A jockey is also weighed-out prior to the race. A jockey thatweighs a difference of 2lb or more at the weigh-out isreported to the stewards.

Advantages and Disadvantages of On / Off-Course Bettingand Tote Betting The main advantage of on-course bettingused to be the fact that you did not have to pay 9% tax.Fortunately tax has now been abolished so what other

advantages are there?

One benefit of on-course betting is the fact that you have theopportunity of assessing the condition of any horse when theyare parading in the paddock. Does it look fit, well and in goodcondition? Is the horse nervous or relaxed? Does his coathave the shine that you would expect from a healthy horse?

Another advantage is the fact that you have more choice asthe bookies prices vary. The most obvious of all benefits isthat you get to see the race live. A large amount of bettingtakes place on-course before the prices are transmitted to thebetting shops, so you are also able to take advantage of theearlier shows.


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On-course bookmakers profit margin are lower than their highstreet counterparts. The reason is the high level of competitionat the track and the fact that they do not have the time to

calculate exotic multiple bets that bookmakers love due to theirhigh profit margin.

One disadvantage of on-course betting is that it is timeconsuming going to a race meeting plus you have to payadmission and travel costs, etc, which will eat away at yourprofits.

Off-Course The advantages of off-course betting are thatbookies shops offer a far wider range of bets and you can beton virtually any sporting event. They also offer credit anddeposit accounts.

The fact that prices are not normally transmitted to the bettingshop until around 15 minutes before the race and sometimes

even later is another disadvantage to betting off-course. Thechanges that take place prior to the prices transition can bedramatic.

Tote Betting Tote betting is a little like the lottery in the sensethat all the money staked on each type of bet is pooled anddeductions are made for tax and running costs. The balance isdistributed to the winners. If you bet to win and your selection

comes in first you will receive a share of the win pool. Theactual amount you win depends upon how many other peoplehave selected the same winner. If you are the only person toselect the winner you will receive all the money in the pool.

Always check the Tote when placing a bet. If you were offeredtwo prices of 5/1 and 10/1 would you take 5/1? By ignoring the

Tote you may be doing just that. The Tote can offer excellent


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value, especially at big meetings, on horses that are ridden byjockeys that are unfashionable or from small stables.Remember you are betting against other punters rather than

the bookie and sometimes the profits can prove spectacular.

The French Tote The most popular foreign betting in the UK ison French racing. The main difference between the FrenchTote and British Tote is that if two horses from the same stableare running in a race they will be coupled up and given thesame prices. By betting on one horse from the stable you willalso be betting on the other. Therefore, if horse A and horse Bare from the same stable and you place 1 to win at 2/1 onhorse A but horse B wins you will still receive 2 in winnings.

The operators take-out for the British Tote varies from bet tobet. For example 16% is deducted from the win pool and 24%from the place pool.

One problem with the Tote system is that you do not knowprecisely how much money you are going to win though youcan bet at S.P. Generally the amount you win depends uponhow many people share the win and the total amount staked.

A good estimate of your potential winnings can be reached.Real time shows are transmitted to the Internet and oddsclose to real time are displayed on racecourse screens and in

Tote betting shops.

The early Tote shows are misleading and the odds look verybig when only small amounts of money are in the pools.

The Totes main advantage is that you can place bets withlower stakes.


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Tote vs the Bookmaker The opportunity for arbitragebetween a bookmakers odds and the Totes odds sometimesarises, although infrequently.

Professional gamblers often wait until the last possiblemoment in order to have the most certain estimate of the Totedividend. This late money distorts the pool.

If a bookmakers price has shortened suddenly and you thinkyou might beat the book by betting on the Tote because thedividend looks like being better than the starting price odds, tomake sure you will need to wait until the last possible momentbefore placing your bet due to this late money.

Ante-Post Betting

Ante-post bets are bets that are placed in advance of the event

in question, either the day before or earlier. They provideexcellent value providing that your selection actually gets tothe start of the race.

The advantage of ante-post betting is that you get better oddsthan you will just before the race though this is not guaranteedsince the horses price could lengthen.

Unfortunately, if your horse is withdrawn from the race youlose your stake. However, if your horse is withdrawn and therace is later abandoned you will get your money back.Therefore, it is wise not to throw away your betting slip as soonas the horse is withdrawn.


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Sometimes bookmakers will offer ante-post odds with a run.With this bet, if your horse does not run you will receive yourmoney back.

The same horse cannot be selected to win more than one racein an accumulative ante-post bet unless a special combinedprice is on offer.

In each-way ante-post betting the place odds are thoseprevailing at the time the bet was made so if the number ofrunners is reduced to a number fewer than the numbernormally qualifying for those place terms the bet is no lessvalid.

Bookmakers claim that they make no money on ante-postbets. They are therefore one of the best value bets around.

If you are making a long distance ante-post bet on a horse be

careful if the horses chance is likely to diminish by extremes ofgoing. You cannot tell if on the day the going will be in yourchosen horses favour.

If the draw is likely to be a significant factor in the outcome, itis best to avoid any serious ante-post betting.

Different bookmaking firms will have different ante-post prices

so shopping around for the best possible price is essential ifthe bettor wishes to achieve long term profits.

TYPES OF PRICES


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Betting shops have a wide variety of different prices. Some areonly available at certain times.

Early Morning Prices A soon as the bookmakers open theyoffer prices on several races, normally limited to handicapraces. However, some may give prices on all the races. Oftenthese prices are advertised in the sporting press. As soon asbetting begins the prices will change. The events for whichearly morning prices are quoted occur that day. Somebookmakers allow a certain amount of time, after the shopopens, for customers to benefit from the advertised prices.Other bookmakers guarantee that if their early morning pricesare worse than the starting prices they will settle the bet at thestarting price.

Ante-Post Prices If a bet is placed on an event the day beforeor even earlier this is known as an ante-post bet. The pricesfor the larger races such as the Grand National are made

available months before the race is to run. Generally ante-postprices are better than the odds offered on the day of the event.The main disadvantage with ante-post bets is that if yourselection is withdrawn from the event you lose your entirestake. If there are too many runners in a race the outsiders willbe entered into a draw in order to select who will take part.This process is known as balloting out. If a horse is ballotedout you will receive your money back.

Starting Prices Starting prices are the average prices that thebookmakers are offering at the racecourse at the start of theevent in question. Often starting prices is abbreviated to S.P.

Board Prices / Shows Bookmakers receive shows of bettingfrom the racecourse approximately 10 minutes before the race

is to be run. The prices represent the average prices of the on-


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course bookmakers. Once the betting shop has received theseprices they will, up to the start of the race, enter a constantstate of flux as more bets are placed.

Tote Dividends The official Tote on the racecourse quotesTote dividends. For bets at Tote odds there are dividendsquoted to a 1 stake for the following bets... win, place,forecast, tricast, placepots and jackpots.

Forecast and Tricast Dividends These are quoted to a 1stake from the racecourse. When a dividend has not beenquoted from the racecourse, for instance in a French race, thebookmaker may offer his own price.

Pari-Mutuel Dividends Foreign racing is often shown live inBritish betting shops. The most popular foreign betting inBritain is on French racing. Pari-mutuel is the name of theFrench horseracing Tote. The dividends are quoted to a one-

Franc stake. Tax is deducted at the racecourse before thedividend is announced, therefore you have no need to pay it.

Prices Given in Newspapers When a newspaper prints arace card they normally also give the prices. These prices aremeant to be a rough guide only since they are merely thenewspapers estimation at what it thinks the prices will be. Theyvary from paper to paper.

Factors That Affect the Price Even though you have taken aprice, the odds at which your bet is settled may change if thefollowing happens...

Dead Heats If two horses finish the race at the same time andtherefore draw this is known as a dead heat. In this case your

returns will be halved if you backed one of the winners.


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However, if three horses dead-heat then your returns will bedivided by three and so on. If a placed horse dead heats, thereturns are only reduced if there are more places than usual

being paid.

Rule 4 If a horse gets withdrawn after a book has been madethen the prices offered by the bookie will be incorrect. This isbecause the prices will have been worked out with thewithdrawn horse included. When this happens Rule 4 comesinto play. Rule 4 allows a bookmaker to adjust the prices. Thisis called a Rule 4 deduction. This deduction does not apply toyour stake but applies to your winnings only.

The amount of money that is deducted from your winnings willdepend upon the price of the withdrawn horse.

ON-COURSE AND OFF-COURSE BETTINGMARKET

The market for betting begins on-course, at the meeting, andis transmitted off-course to the bookmakers.

When you place a bet off-course you can do so at the fixedodds quoted by the bookmaker or you can bet at startingprices (S.P.) in which case you do not know the precise odds

you will get at the time you place your bet.

The betting market on-course responds directly to the betsbeing placed at the meeting in question. This kind of market isknown as a free market.

In a weak free market it takes relatively small sums of moneyto move the odds.


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Bookmakers, off-course, sometimes exploit a weak market tooff-set their liabilities. They do this by placing bets at the trackwith the sole aim of shifting the S.P. This can cut a punters

potential winnings.

Consider the following example of how bookmakers canmanipulate the market. Paul bets 200 at S.P. He is backing ahorse currently trading at 4/1. However a large chainbookmaker is laying off bets on-course and this cuts the oddsto 3/1, at the last moment. The wagers placed at S.P. at thebig chain bookmaker total 200,000. Therefore the liability ofthis bookie was 800,000 (at 4/1), now it is reduced by aquarter to 600,000 (at 3/1). This represents a cut back of200,000 for a much smaller sum of money, which thebookmaker used to affect the on-course prices in a weakmarket. Because the bookmaker manipulated the marketreducing the odds from 4/1 to 3/1 Paul will now only win 600for his 200 bet instead of 800.

This practise has been used for a long time by bookmakers asa way of balancing their books or protecting themselves fromsomeone placing a very large bet. For example, if someonebet 10,000 on a horse to win at 10/1, the bookmaker wouldbe liable to payout 100,000 if the horse in question won. If thebookmaker decided he did not want to face all of the liability hewould also bet on the horse using the on-course bookies.

INTERNET BETTING

The internet has had a dramatic effect in the way manygamblers bet. Available on the net you can find a wealth offree information. Websites such as the one operated by the

Racing Post, enables punters to access all the information that


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is normally only available in the UKs no.1 daily racingnewspaper. www.sportinglife.co.uk is another example of awebsite that provides a vast quantity of gambling information

such as racecards, etc.

Internet bookmakers also provide a convenient way to placebets. Due to the fact that they also have lower overheads theycan and often do provide better value for money in the form ofbetter prices.

Another example of the benefits of the internet can be found atodds comparison sites. These websites enable gamblers tocompare quickly the various odds offered by differentbookmakers. By comparing prices you can obtain better valueby placing bets with bookmakers that offer the best odds.Shopping around for the best prices is an essential strategy formaking long term profits. The apparently slight differences inprices can make a big difference in the long term.

The ascent of the internet has also allowed people to placearbitrage bets. An arbitrage bet is a bet that is practicallyguaranteed to profit no matter what the outcome. Many peoplehave successfully made a full income from this strategy and allwithout risking much money.

Betting exchanges have also had a dramatic effect on the

world of horse racing. By removing bookmakers from theequation punters can bet against each other. For instance ifyou think a horse has no chance of winning due to someinformation which you have received you can go to a bettingexchange and offer a price to the betting public. This ability tooppose a horse has created a new dimension to the way inwhich punters can view a horse race. Furthermore, it is not


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uncommon to be able to obtain vastly better value than thatoffered by conventional bookmakers.

Gambling abroad with foreign bookmakers on foreign sportsand events is also now possible and easy thanks to theinternet.

You can even find bet calculators to work out your winnings foryou.

Considering all the benefits, the internet is clearly an excellenttool for the horse race bettor and it is well worth going online.

Betting Exchanges Betting exchanges are bringing about adramatic alteration in the way in which we bet. Betfair are theUKs largest betting exchange. The following informationapplies mainly but not solely to this particular exchange.

Betfair claim to have matched 250 million pounds worth ofbets last year. It appears that these exchanges are posing athreat to the bookmaking industry.

With a betting exchange there is no bookie. The bets featuredare placed there by individuals who chose to bet in the normalway, by backing a selection or by acting as a bookmaker byoffering odds to other punters.

Bets are matched between people with opposing views. Betting exchanges have a number of differences that

separate them from traditional bookmakers. You can back or lay a bet. You can choose the odds you want to bet at. You can obtain better prices.

You can bet whilst the game is in play.


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The terminology used on betting exchanges is lay and backor sell and buy. If you decide to play the role of a bookmaker

you will be laying bets by offering a price. However, if you wereplaying the role of punter you would back a selection.

You never know or have personal contact with those who youare betting against.

If you see a price quoted but you want better odds you place arequest for a better price. However, you do need to be realisticbecause you have to find somebody prepared to offer you yourrequested odds and visa versa.

The odds featured constantly fluctuate but more so the closeryou come to the event in question. This is due to the fact thatthere are more people in the market.

There is no chance of not getting paid or avoiding paymentshould you lose, as everyone has to deposit enough funds bycredit or debit card to cover all transactions.

All businesses have to make a profit in order to survive.Bookmakers do this by offering prices that do not represent thetrue odds. Betting exchanges make a profit by charging asmall commission on winning bets and there are no other

costs. As a result, the charges imposed by betting exchangesare small in comparison to the value offered in the prices.

You can bet in running on some events. This means you canbet while a contest is in play. This tool was normally limited tospread betting.


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You can bet on or lay odds for just about any sport. You caneven bet on the performance of the stock market. There are noeach way bets since all bets are to win.

Betting exchanges often offer far better value than traditionalbookmakers, therefore your profits should increase the moreyou use betting exchanges (even after paying the 2-5%commission on winning bets).

For instance, a 5/2 chance with standard bookmakers willtypically be offered at a price of 3/1 so by placing a 100 betwith the bookie you can expect a winning return of 350.However with the typical exchange price of 3/1 you wouldexpect 400, minus 5% commission resulting in a return of380. Therefore theres a 30 difference in returns which is asubstantial amount. By betting with exchanges on a regularbasis the difference in value can have a dramatic effect of yourbetting bank and long term profits.

Betting exchanges operate in decimals instead of standardodds. Therefore 4/5 would be represented as 1.8 and 3/1would be represented as 4.0. These figures show the totalreturn you can expect if you place a 1 bet. So if you place a1 bet at 3/1 you can expect 4 represented as 4.0 (See oddsto percentage conversion table in the charts and tables sectionof this book).

We recommend that you do not bet on an exchange until youare comfortable with the concepts and rules of theseexchanges. Your first visit may prove to be a dauntingexperience. However, help is available online and you cansimply watch the markets in action before getting involvedyourself.


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UNDERSTANDING ODDS,BOOKMAKING AND CALCULATING

BETS

A bookmaker assesses the chances of each runner of a raceand then allocates each horse a price (odds). A book of pricesis then made.

The horse that is allocated the lowest odds is the one the

bookmaker expects to win. This horse is called the favourite. Ifanother horse shares the same odds they are called the joint-favourite and in the bookmakers opinion they have the samechance of winning. If several horses have the same lowestprices they are called co-favourites.

The bookmaker, or bookie, changes the odds constantly asmore people place bets. A large bet on a horse will result in itsodds being lowered. If a horse is not attracting any bets thebookie will increase its odds in an attempt to attract more betsfor this particular horse. On average UK bookmakers aim tomake a profit of 17% on a race and they will alter the odds totry to ensure that they achieve this goal. For some books theprofit margin will be much smaller than for others.

If bookmaker A is offering 2/1 on a horse and bookmaker B isoffering 3/1 on a horse bookmaker B would of course beoffering the best value.

Understanding Odds If a horse is at 2/1 and it won, for every1 placed on that horse you will receive 2 in return. Theamount to the left of the price, in this case 2, is what youreceive if you bet the amount to the right. The amount of


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money you place on a horse is known as the stake. If you win,the money you receive back is known as the returns.

For example if you stake 3 on a horse at 3/1 and the horsewins your return will be 3 times your stake. You will thereforewin 9.

Where the number on the left of the price is greater than thenumber to the right i.e. 2/1, this is known as odds against. Ifthe number on the left of the price is smaller than the numberto right i.e. 1/2 this is known as odds on. If both numbers arethe same this is referred to as evens i.e. 1/1.

Often odds are quoted with the word on attached, forinstance 2/1 on. This means that the odds are really 1/2. If youhear the word on attached to the price simply reverse the twonumbers of the price i.e. 2/1 on becomes 1/2.

Tax Tax on gamblers was 9% and you could pay it on eitheryour stake or winnings. Fortunately, tax has recently beenabolished. This is excellent news for the punter.

Calculating Your Winnings Calculating bets is a simpleprocess once you have had a little practise.

Win Bets To calculate a win bet is simple. First we find the

return to a 1 stake. There are two ways to do this. The firstmethod is to add the left and right numbers of the pricetogether and divide this figure by the right number. Forinstance, if the price was 6/4 you would add the two numbersleaving you with 10 and then you would divide this figure by 4leaving you with your returns to a 1 stake - 2.50. Analternative method would be to divide the left number by the

right number and add 1. If the price was 6/4 you divide 6 by 4


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leaving you with 1.5. You add 1 and then you are left with thereturns to a 1 stake - 2.5.

To settle a win bet you need to multiply the return to a 1 betby the stake. If you had placed 5 to win at 6/4 you multiply 5by 2.5 to discover your returns - 12.5.

Each-Way Bets Each-way bets actually consists of two bets,one to win and the other for the selection to be placed.

The place part of the bet is calculated at a fraction of the winodds. The fractions are either 1/4 or 1/5. The fraction that youdivide the win odds by depends on the number of runners inthe race.

If there are 1-4 runners you can only bet to win. If there are 5-7runners the place part is calculated to 1/4 of the odds and ifthere are 8 or more runners the place bet will be calculated to

1/5 of the odds.

If the race is a handicap the place bet will be calculated to 1/4of the odds.

All up to win is an expression used where an each way bet hasbeen put on a race with four runners or fewer. It is not possibleto bet on these races so the place stakes are put on to win.

For instance if you had placed 2 each-way on a race with fourrunners the all up to win rule comes into play resulting in yourbet being altered to a 4 win bet.

Since an each-way bet is actually 2 bets, if you placed a 1each-way bet you will be placing 1 to win and 1 place so

your actual stake is 2.


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A place bet allows your selection to finish several placesbehind the winner. The amount of places depends upon the

number of runners. if there are 5-7 runners you are allowedtwo places for your place bet and it will be calculated to 1/4 ofthe win odds.

If your selection does not win you forfeit the win part of yourbet and therefore only the place part is valid.

To calculate the returns for an each way bet that has beenplaced on a winner first you need to work out your returns to a1 win bet using the method outlined previously. Then youwork out the returns to a 1 place bet. You then add thesefigures together and multiple by the stake.

For instance if you had placed a 2 each-way bet (total stake4) and it won at 5/2 in a race with 10 runners, you could

calculate your returns as follows.

First find the returns for a 1 stake on the win part of the betfollowing the instructions given previously, in calculating winbets.

You will be left with the sum of 3.5. Now deduct 1 leaving youwith 2.5. Multiply this figure by 1.25 for 1/4 odds or 1.2 for 1/5

odds. Since there are 10 runners in our example race you willbe calculating the place odds to 1/5 of the win odds. So 2.5 x1.2 = 3

The next step involves adding 2. This leaves you with thefigure 5.


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Finally multiply this figure by the unit stake 2 and you are leftwith the total returns 10.

Examples 1 - 2 each way, winner @ 5/2 (1/5 odds).Total stake = 4.1 @ 5/2 = 3.5 Find the returns to a 1 stake.3.5 - 1 = 2.5 Deduct 1.2.5 X 1.2 = 3 For 1/5 odds.3 + 2 = 5 Add 2.5 x 2 = 10 Multiply by the unit stake.= 10.00 Total returns.

Example 2 - 5 each way winner @ 7/4 (1/4 odds).Total stake = 10.

1@7/4 = 2.75 Find the returns to a 1 stake.2.75 - 1 = 1.75 Deduct 1.1.75 x 1.25 (1/4 odds) = 2 1875 For 1/4 odds.

2.1875 + 2 = 4.1875 Add 2.4.1875 x 5 = 20.9375 Multiply by the unit stake.= 20.94 Total returns.

Please note that this method does not work for multiple eachway bets.

If your each way bet selection comes second you lose the win

bet stake.

Example - 5 each way 2nd @ 7/4 (1/4 odds).Total stake = 10.

1@7/4 = 2.75 Find the returns to a 1 stake.2.75 -1 =1.75 Deduct 1.

1.75 x 0.25 = 0.4375 For 1/4 odds.


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0.4375 + 1* = 1.4375 *Because you forfeit the win bet.1.4375 x 5 = 7.1875 Multiply by the unit stake.= 7.18 Total returns - you lost 2.82.

Multiple Bets To calculate win doubles, each way doublesand other such multiple bets simply take the returns from thefirst winning selection and place them on to the secondselection and so forth. Obviously if the first selection of yourmultiple bet loses you forfeit your entire stake.

Calculating the Bookmakers Overround The odds offeredby bookmakers on a horse are not the realistic chances of theanimal in question winning. The bookmaker has adjusted theodds in his favour to ensure he makes a profit. Bookies pricesvary from shop to shop and some offer better value thanothers. Learning how to calculate the profit on a book enablesyou to make an informed decision on whether it is worthhaving a bet and it will enable you to isolate the bookmaker

that is offering the best value on a particular race. If the profitmargin exceeds 20% you are not receiving good value and it isprobably worth finding an alternative bookmaker.

To calculate the profit on a race first multiply 100 by thenumber on the right of the price. Now divide this figure by boththe left and right numbers of the price added together.

Do this for each price in the race and deduct 100 from thetotal. The resulting figure is the percentage profit made by thebookmaker.

Example - Lets look at a three horse race with the followingprices 1/2, 2/1, 5/1.


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Take the first price 1/2 and multiply the number on the right ofthe price by 100 resulting in the figure of 200. Now divide thisfigure by the left and right numbers of the price added

together, 3, leaving you with the figure 66.66.

Do this for each price and you will be left with 3 figures. Addthen together - 66.66 + 33.33 + 16.66 = 116.65.

Now deduct 100 from this figure 116.65 - 100 = 16.65. You arenow left with the bookmakers percentage profit - 16.65%.

If you use our odds to percentage conversion table (featured inthe charts and tables section) this process is simplified.

Calculating an Overround Book In this example the book is16.65 overround.

Now lets take a look at another example, to see how we can

create an underround book.

HORSE ODDS %CHANCEA 7-2 22.22%B 2-1 33.33%C 3-1 25%D 9-2 18.18%

E 9-2 18.18%Total 116.91%Overround total 100%) 16.91%

This is an example of an overround book. Imagine that you aresure your judgement regarding this race is superior to thebookies and you think that horse B does not stand a chance.


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By removing B from the reckoning you have removed 33.33%from the book.

This leaves the total percentage chance of the remaininghorses in the book at 83.58% (116.91% - 33.33% = 83.58%).

The book you have created for yourself is underround becauseit adds up to less than 100% (83.58%).

In such a situation you can back all the other horses in therace (ACDE) and still make a profit. If you are right abouthorse B you cannot lose.

To be able to disregard short-priced horses without solidinformation requires a high degree of expertise. Disregardingun-fancied outsiders is easier.

An additional problem with this approach is that you require a

large amount of capital to cover all the horses and thepercentage return is normally quite small.

Important Betting Rules Explained If you use our ReadyReckoner, generally, working out bets is a simple process.However, it is not always straight forward and along the waythere are a few obstacles waiting to trip you up. For example,what happens if one of your selections is a non-runner? How

does a dead heat affect your winnings, etc? In this section wewill attempt to provide some simple answers to these andother questions that may arise, when you are calculating yourreturns.

Dead-Heat If you have placed a win bet and the result is adead-heat, half the stake is lost and the full odds are paid on

the other half.


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If the bet was each-way or place only; where the selectiondead heats for a place, stakes are paid in full unless the dead-

heat affects the last available place - e.g. 2nd in a race of 5 to7 runners; 3rd in a field of up to 12; 4th in a handicap race of16 runners or more, etc - when half the place stake is lost andthe full place odds paid to the remainder.

For example: 1 Double A and B. A is an outright winner at 5/1and B dead-heats for 1st place at 4/1. The calculation istherefore 1 @ 5/1=6. 6 @ 4/1 dead-heat is 3 @ 4/1=15with the remainder of the stake lost.

Non-Runners If your bet is single and if your selection does notrun then your stake will be returned in full (except for ante-postbets where stakes are lost on non-runners). In Doubles andTrebles etc, the stake is allowed to run on to the remainingselection(s).

For instance, if A and B are taken in a Double and A is a non-runner, the bet becomes a Single on B. If A, B and C form aTreble, then A is a non-runner, the bet stands as a Double onB and C.

Each individual line is treated separately for multiple bets witha non-runner. For instance in a Yankee A B C D - the 11 bets

are as follows: 6 Doubles *AB *AC *AD BC BD CD. 4 Trebles *ABC *ABD *ACD BCD. 1 Accumulator *ABCD.

If A is a non runner*, you will see that the 11 bets become: 3 Singles B, C, D.

6 Doubles BC BD CD BC BD CD.


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2 Trebles BCD BCD.

Rule 4 The purpose of Rule 4 is to compensate bookmakers

when a withdrawn horse has effectively shortened the odds onthe remainder of runners but there is insufficient time beforethe race to amend those odds. When settling, simply find therate of deduction applicable to the winning odds of the horse(e.g. 3/1 = 25p in the ) and deduct from winnings only (do notinclude stake).

For instance 10 @ 5/1 with a 25p in the deductions arecalculated as follows:10 x 5 = 50 deduct 50 x 25p (12.50) = 37.50 + 10 stake= 47.50.

Over / Under-Staking You must ensure that the correct amountof stake is paid when the bet is placed if you want to receivethe correct amount of winnings for your bet.

Occasionally, however, mistakes will occur and you will paytoo little or too much for your bet. This could be due to an errorwhen totalling your bets or because you have miscalculatedthe correct number of bets for the number of selectionschosen. Either way the rules are the same.

The excess is returned if you pay too much for your bet. For

instance 10p win Yankee - staked 1.50. The bet is settled asa 10p Yankee bet. Win or lose 40p is returned and added toany winnings. If you pay too little, then your return is paid inproportion to the correct amount for the bet. For instance 10pwin Yankee - staked 1. You will receive 1 / 1.10 (10/11th)of your winnings. If the return is 22 x 10 = 220 and divide bythe correct stake for the bet 220 / 11 = 20. If the bet loses

you will not be asked to make up the difference.


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Too Few or Too Many Selections Another error, commonlymade, is to add an extra selection or miss one out.

When a selection is forgotten, a non-runner is added to makeup the correct number of selections. For instance in a Yankeeif the selections nominated are A B and C, a non-runner isadded for the fourth selection. Settlement is then identical tothe example given in our explanation of non-runners.

Where an extra selection is inadvertently added, then thenumber of bets is adjusted to equal the total number ofselections. For instance, 5 selections given in a 10p Yankeewith a stake of 1.10, is adjusted to a Canadian (26) bets andthe return proportioned 11/26th.

Value Of course theres a great difference between backingwinners and being a profitable bettor. If the aim of the game

was to back winners all you would have to do is back poorlypriced favourites which would lose you money in the long run.

It is a common opinion that if you aim to be a profitablegambler you need to concentrate on value. The way to achievegood value bets are by trading at better than true odds. This isknown as the value approach.

For example, a tossed coin can only ever land on either headsor tails. Theres a 50/50 chance that either will happen andtherefore the true odds are evens. If you trade at worse oddsthan this, for instance 4/5, then in the long run you will losemoney. If you trade at a price better than evens, lets say 5/4,then in the long run you will make a profit.


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Of course you can get great value and still lose. If you bet 5/4on a tossed coin theres still a 50/50 chance that you will losemoney. Also you can get terrible value and still collect. Most

punters have hundreds of bets per year and the more bets youhave the more you can be confident that the percentages willwin out. If you keep betting at 5/4 on a toss of a coin, you maylose on any one throw but you can be certain in the long runyou will win. Providing you are constantly trading at valueodds, over a period of time, you will win and luck has nothingto do with it.

To use this approach you must have an understanding of thetrue odds otherwise how can you judge whether you arereceiving good value? It is therefore essential to be able toassess what the true odds should be.

The Profitability of Bets If you were thinking of buying a newwashing machine, car or going on holiday would you shop

around for the best value and try and obtain the best price. Ofcourse you would. And yet it never fails to amaze me howpunters make so little effort to shop around for the best odds.On one bet the difference in return by shopping around mayseem small and not really worth the effort. However, over a fullseason seeking the best prices can easily make the differencebetween making a substantial loss and making a substantialprofit. It has never been easier to shop around for the best

prices. You can even find odds comparison web sites that dothe work for you.

One of the main weapons a bookmaker uses against a bettoris mathematics. Although it is perhaps possible to find astrategy that uses multiple bets to produce profit the factremains that you are at a major disadvantage if your preferred

bet has a high profit margin for the bookmakers.


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Bookmakers promote their most profitable bets. If you aim tomake long-term profits avoiding the bookies most profitable

bets is an obviously important tactic. Bookmakers will try allsorts of tactics to make these bets appear good value. Thebest indication to a bets value is the amount of money thebookmakers make from the bets. The bets with highpercentage profits are the bets to avoid.

Ideally you want to cut the bookmaker out completely, forinstance by betting on exchanges. Betting exchanges canprovide much better value since the operators only take asmall commission on the bets you place against other punters.

SOME USEFUL STATISTICS

Statistics are the foundation of all good systems. There aremany aspects of horseracing that are predictable. Thefollowing percentages will vary only slightly from year to year.

20% of all horses in training win over 80% of all races Itmakes sense to focus on this small group of reliable andconsistent horses. If there were, say, 200 running on aparticular day, only around 40 would be worthy ofconsideration. This narrows the field massively.

33% of all Flat races are won by the favourite Around 25%win handicaps and 40% win non-handicaps.

These percentages generally increase slightly for NationalHunt racing because Jump horses can be more consistentthan their Flat counterparts.


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Consider the following tables, covering a five year period, thatshow us that around 74% of all flat races are won by one ofthe first four in the betting.

Around 74% of flat races are won by the first four in thebetting.

However, percentages of winning favourites vary considerablydepending on a number of other factors as the following tablesshow...

Winning favourite percentages can also differ widely from trackto track. This information is available every day in the RacingPost in the form of a FAVOURITES BOX for each meeting.You can see at a glance how favourites have performed, indifferent types of races, over the past four years.

Weight 66% of all winners carry the same or less weight than

their last run.

Recent Form 53% of all winners won or placed in their lastrace.

Distance 60% of winners ran at the same distance as theirlast time out.

The Market 30% of winners start at 2/1 or less. 45% of winners start at 3/1 or less. 65% of winners start at 5/1 or less. 78% of winners start at 7/1 or less.

The price bracket of 13/8 to 6/1 produces over 52% winners so

you are not missing much leaving alone very short priced


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favourites. However, you need a good reason to back at 8/1 orover.

67% of winners come from the first three in the betting.

One of the first three in the betting is placed around 90% of thetime.

87% of winners are returned at odds less than the number ofrunners.

In recent years many trainers run their horses again quickly tocapitalize on their fitness. An interesting set of statistics for turfracing over ten years shows that certain trainers make a profitdoing this from a strike rate of over 20%.

96. punters bible

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