8 air & climate - planning service · 8 air & climate 8.1 this chapter of ... modification)...

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8 Air & Climate

8.1 This Chapter of the environmental statement provides an assessment of the potential

effects to local air quality and climate upon relevant environmental receptors.

8.2 The effects on local air quality have been assessed through the use of air dispersion

modelling of the Annual Aircraft Movement Activity – Operating in 2025 (without proposed

modification) and for the proposed modification case in 2025 (with proposed

modification). There is a negligible/insignificant effect to local air quality between the

existing baseline, 2013, and operating in 2025 (without proposed modification). The

impact of the proposal on climate change has also been addressed.

8.3 The Air Quality Standards Regulations (Northern Ireland) 2010 came into operation on

the 11th

June 2010 (SR 2010/188). These regulations outline the limit values and

objectives for oxides of nitrogen (NOx), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), carbon monoxide (CO),

particulates, sulphur dioxide (SO2) and other air pollutants – refer to Table 8.1.

Pollutant Air Quality Objective To be achieved by

Concentration Measured as

Benzene

All authorities 16.25 µg m-3

Running annual mean 31 December 2003

Scotland and N. Ireland 3.25 µg m-3


1,3-Butadiene 2.25 µg m-3


Carbon Monoxide

England, Wales and N. Ireland

10.0 mg m-3

Maximum daily running 8-hour mean

31 December 2003

Lead 0.5 µg m-3

Annual mean 31 December 2004

0.25 µg m-3


Nitrogen Dioxide 200 µg m-3

not to be exceeded more than 18

times a year

1-hour mean 31 December 2005

Particles (PM10) (gravimetric)

40 µg m-3


All authorities 50 µg m-3

, not to be exceeded more than 35

times a year

24 hour mean 31 December 2004

Particles (PM2.5) (gravimetric) *

40 µg m-3


25 µg m-3

(target) Annual mean 2020

All authorities 15% cut in urban background exposure

Annual mean 2010 - 2020

Sulphur dioxide 350 µg m-3


times a year


125 µg m-3


times a year


88

Pollutant Air Quality Objective To be achieved by

Concentration Measured as

266 µg m-3


times a year

15-minute mean 31 December 2005

PAH * 0.25 ng m-3


Ozone * 100 µg m-3

not to be exceeded more than 10

times a year

8 hourly running or hourly mean*

31 December 2005

Nitrogen dioxide (for protection of vegetation &

ecosystems) *

30 µg m-3


Sulphur dioxide (for protection of vegetation &

ecosystems) *

30 µg m-3

30 µg m

-3

Annual mean Winter Average (Oct -

Mar)

31 December 2000

Ozone * 18 µg m-3

AOT40+, calculated from

1h values May-July. Mean of 5 years, starting

2010

01 January 2010

* not included in regulations at present + AOT 40 is the sum of the differences between hourly concentrations greater than 80 µg m

-3 (=40ppb) and 80

µg m-3, over a given period using only the 1-hour averages measured between 0800 and 2000.

Table 8.1 – Summary of the Air Quality Standards Regulations (Northern Ireland) 2010

Local Air Quality Management Review

8.4 The DEFRA Local Air Quality Management Technical Guidance LAQM.TG(09) 1published

February 2009, states that “only a limited number of airports in the UK operate at

capacities above 10 million passengers per annum (mppa), which is the level at which

Airports are required to produce air quality assessment reports taking account of

monitoring and modelling data”. This does not apply to GB BCA as the operating capacity

is significantly below the 10 million passengers per annum.

Descriptors for Impact Magnitude and Impact Significance

8.5 Table 8.2 below sets out the descriptors which describe the significance of the impacts

predicted. In assessing the significance of the worst-case changes predicted the

following has been taken into account:

• the magnitude of the change; and

• the absolute concentrations in relation to air quality objectives.

8.6 The impact significance descriptors in Table 8.3 take account of the magnitude of the

change (both positive and negative) and the absolute concentration in relation to the air

quality objectives. The descriptors allow for a small change in concentration being more

1 DEFRA Local Air Quality Management Technical Guidance LAQM.TG(09), Chapter 6, Detailed

Assessments – Page 6-7

89

significant when the concentration is above or close to the objective than when it is well

below the objective.

Magnitude of Change Annual Mean NO2 / PM10 Days PM10>50 µg/m³

Large Increase/decrease >4 µg/m3 Increase / decrease >4 days

Medium Increase/decrease 2 - 4 µg/m3 Increase/ decrease 2 - 4 days

Small Increase/decrease 0.4 - 2 µg/m3 Increase/ decrease 1 - 2 days

Imperceptible Increase/decrease <0.4 µg/m3 Increase / decrease <1 days

Table 8.2 – Descriptors for Changes in Ambient Concentrations of NO2and PM102

Absolute Concentration in relation to

Objective / Limit Value

Change in concentration

Small Medium Large

Increase with Scheme

Above Objective/ Limit Value With

Scheme (>40 µg/m3)

Slight Adverse Moderate Adverse Substantial

Adverse

Just Below Objective / Limit Value With

Scheme (36 - 40 µg/m3)

Slight Adverse Moderate Adverse Moderate Adverse

Below Objective / Limit Value With


Negligible Slight Adverse Slight Adverse

Well Below Objective / Limit Value With

Scheme (<30 µg/m3)

Negligible Negligible Slight Adverse

Decrease with Scheme

Above Objective / Limit Value With

Scheme (>40 µg/m3)

Slight Beneficial Moderate Beneficial Substantial

Beneficial

Just Below Objective / Limit Value With


Slight Beneficial Moderate Beneficial Moderate Beneficial

Below Objective / Limit Value With


Negligible Slight Beneficial Slight Beneficial

Well Below Objective / Limit Value With

Scheme (<30 µg/m3)

Negligible Negligible Slight Beneficial

Table 8.3 – Descriptors for Impact Significance for NO2 and PM10 Air Quality Impact

Significance Criteria

2 Environmental Protection UK, Development Control: Planning For Air Quality (2010 Update)

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Dispersion Modelling Methodology

8.7 As outlined in “Integration of AERMOD into EDMS”, the Federal Aviation Administration

(FAA) requires the use of the Emissions and Dispersion Modelling System (EDMS) for air

quality analysis involving aviation sources.

8.8 The FAA recommends the use of AERMOD’s dispersion algorithms which have been

shown through validation efforts to accurately model the physics of the atmosphere. It is

recommended that source modelling of aircraft emissions on runways, take-off, climb-out

and approach are modelled as area sources. Runways, roadways, queues, and taxiways

were each modelled using multiple, contiguous area sources. In keeping with EPA

recommendations regarding the use of area sources in AERMOD, the maximum ratio for

length to width is 10:1. The areas used for roadways, queues and taxiways was set at

200 metres by 20 metres. Motion along runways, however, tends to have significant

acceleration, and therefore, a shorter length of 50 metres is employed. These shorter

segments allow for a more realistic modelling of aircraft movements and emissions than

maximum lengths which would spread the emissions over larger composite areas. The

emissions for each area segment is determined by calculating the time an aircraft would

spend in the segment (i.e., based on its speed). Aircraft take-off and approach is

modelled by using “stepped” area sources. The “steps” continued up to a height of 300

metres because beyond that, the emissions do not add significantly to the receptors on

the ground. Therefore, aircraft take-off and approach flight paths were segmented into

fifteen steps vertically separated by 20 metres. As in-flight acceleration is significantly

lower than on the runway, the area sources used are each 200 metres long and 20

metres wide.

8.9 The potential air quality impact of the operational phase aircraft emissions was assessed

over an area of 4.6 km x 6.6 km, and the results have been plotted at a scale of 1:30,000

on A4. This is shown in the concentration isopleths output from the dispersion models.

The resolution of the uniform Cartesian receptor grid was set to 200m x 300m in order to

optimise model run-time.

Aircraft Emission Factor Calculations

8.10 For the purposes of the quantitative assessment of the aircraft-related emissions,

modelling comprised of aircraft modes associated with a typical Landing and Take-Off

(LTO) cycle. The LTO includes all activities near the airport that take place below the

altitude of approximately 1000metres . This consists of taxi-out, take-off and climb out,

and at the end of the flight, the landing approach and taxi-in. This is the fuel required to

get the aircraft into the air (and down again) and are constant irrespective of flight length.

Ascents require a much more intense fuel burn than cruising at constant altitude. The

Climb, Cruise and Descent cycle (CCD) is defined as all activities that take place at

altitudes above approximately 1000metres . This fuel use accounts for the bulk of the

flight distance, and naturally varies with flight length.

91

Plate 8.1 – Phases of flight of aircraft

8.11 Relatively minor emissions from auxiliary power units (APUs) and any emissions arising

from aircraft engine testing / maintenance were not included in the air dispersion model

because APU emissions would account for a small percentage of overall air pollutant

emissions from an airport. This is particularly the case for GB BCA as the use of APUs is

very limited due to the supply of Fixed Electrical Ground Power (FEGP) at the aircraft

stands.

8.12 Emissions for specific aircraft types (narrow body, regional and small) were calculated

using emission factors for aircraft specific engines at each power setting (mode of

operation) and the time spent in each mode. The calculated emissions from engines is

based on the forecast set out in Table 4 and these emission calculations have been used

to calculate total emissions as well as predicted pollutant concentrations at nearby

residential properties. The impact of LTO aircraft emissions has been undertaken for

‘Annual Aircraft Movement Activity’ for the current 2013 baseline, the Fallback position

and with the proposed modification in 2025, as supplied by York Aviation.

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Annual Movements by Type, Time of Day and Distance

Airbus A319

Airbus A320

Airbus A321

Dash 8-Q400

Embraer 175

Embraer 195 Let 410

Grand Total

Arrivals

Daytime

0-500 1,680 1,392 9,168 960 960 14,160

1000-1500 336 60 396

500-1000 384 150 2,880 288 3,702

Evening

0-500 336 624 2,880 288 4,128

1000-1500 288 288

500-1000 48 48 336 432

Departures

Daytime

0-500 1,680 1,104 10,464 960 672 14,880

1000-1500 288 60 348

500-1000 48 48 150 246

Evening

0-500 624 1,104 288 2,016

Night Period (06.30-06.59)

0-500 336 288 480 288 1,392

1000-1500 336 336

Grand Total 4,128 5,376 420 24,096 2,496 1,920 38,436

Table 8.4 – Annual Aircraft Movement Activity – Operating in 2025 (without proposed

modification)

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Annual Movements by Type, Time of Day and Distance

Airbus A319

Airbus A320

Airbus A321

Dash 8-Q400

Embraer 175

Embraer 195 Let 410

Grand Total

Arrivals

Daytime

0-500 2,880 1,728 912 9,792 960 960 17,232

1000-1500 336 240 576

500-1000 384 96 144 624

Evening

0-500 672 624 288 2,928 288 4,800

1000-1500 288 288

500-1000 96 336 432

Departures

Daytime

0-500 3,216 1,440 912 11,424 960 672 18,624

1000-1500 288 288

500-1000 384 96 432 144 1,056

Evening

0-500 624 288 816 288 2,016

Night Period (06.30-06.59)

0-500 336 288 480 288 1,392

1000-1500 336 240 576

Grand Total 7,872 6,144 1,344 2,400 25,728 2,496 1,920 47,904

Table 8.5 – Annual Aircraft Movement Activity – proposed modification case in 2025 (with

proposed modification)

Aircraft Type Annual Aircraft Movement Activity

2025 without proposed modification

2025 with proposed

modification

Narrow Body 9,924 17,760

Regional 24,096 25,728

Small 4,416 4,416

Total 38,436 47,904

Table 8.6 – Projected Annual Aircraft Types and Movement used in Air Quality Impact

Appraisal

8.13 Based on a breakdown of the annual movements as outlined above, the emission factor

calculations and the subsequent air dispersion modelling comparative predictions are

based on typical emissions from actual aircraft types for the ‘Annual Aircraft Movement

Activity’ – without proposed modification and with the proposed modification in 2025,

within the three categories of aircraft as follows;

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Narrow Body CFM International CFM56-7 engines (A)

.

Regional BAe146 aircraft using Textron Lycoming ALF502R engines (B)

Small Dornier 328 using Honeywell AS 907-1-1A engines

• Note A: Particulate emissions from Narrow Body Aircraft have been assumed from Boeing 737-400's

emission data.

• Note B: For Regional aircraft, the Dash8-400 use Pratt & Whitney 150 engines and the Dash8 is by far

the biggest single Regional aircraft type operating in the Belfast City Airport. However, there is no

International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO) data available for this engine type. Therefore, the

Lycoming ALF502R engine has been used which is on the BAe146 aircraft. [IATA code 143] These

aircraft are currently being phased out and replaced with the Embraer 195, but because they are fairly

old they have been cited as worst case for Regional aircraft.

8.14 The emission factors used to represent the engine emissions from the three different

aircraft sizes are based on different levels of detail of the aircraft used to represent the

fleet in the calculations. The ICAO Aircraft Engine Emissions Databank (April 2013)

provides basic aircraft engine emission data for certificated turbojet and turbofan engines

covering the rate of fuel used, and the emission factors for Hydrocarbons (HC), Carbon

Monoxide (CO) and nitrogen oxides (NOx) at the different thrust settings used. The

exhaust emission databank is accessible via the internet, via URL

http://easa.europa.eu/environment/edb/aircraft-engine-emissions.php.

8.15 In addition to HC, CO and NOx, the ICAO Aircraft Engine Emissions Databank also

contains emission factors for smoke at the different thrust settings. The “smoke number”

is an indirect measurement of particulate emissions calculated from the reflectance of a

filter paper measured before and after the passage of a known quantity of the smoke

burning gas. Particulate Matter (PM) emission factors can be derived from those for

smoke, the methodology used for this conversion is published as part of UK DfT’s Project

for the Sustainable Development of Heathrow (UK-DfT 2006). Sulphur dioxide (SO2)

emissions were also calculated by assuming that SO2 emissions in all modes are 0.54

g/Kg of fuel burnt.

8.16 A worst-case assessment has been carried out as it has been assumed that all aircraft

types utilise the full extent of the runway for their take-off and landing which is not the

case for small and medium aircraft types.

Background Concentrations, Conversion from NOX to NO2 and Aircraft Emissions Model Verification

8.17 Continuous background air quality monitoring data that is suitable and can be referenced

for use in the dispersion modelling assessment is available from the Belfast Centre and

the North Down Holywood A2 Air Quality Monitoring Stations. Tables 10.9a and 10.9b

present a summary of the background concentrations for the Belfast Centre and North

Down Holywood A2 Air Quality Monitoring Station for the years 2003 - 2012.

8.18 Based on the data in Tables 10.9a and 10.9b, the NOx to NO2 conversion ratio for the

Belfast Urban Area has been estimated to be 55.3%, while the NOx to NO2 conversion

ratio for the North Down Holywood A2 Air Quality Monitoring station has been estimated

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to be 42.7%. Therefore, a NOx to NO2 conversion ratio of 49% has been used in this

assessment.

8.19 A model verification correction factor of 3.33 has been determined and applied to all

model outputs to allow for accurate representation of the impact of the emissions from the

airport on background pollutant concentrations.

Receptor Locations

8.20 The discrete receptors considered in this impact assessment are listed in Table 8.7

below.

Air Sensitive Receptor Number & Location OS coordinate Compass Direction

from Airport X (m) Y (m)

ASR1

31 Inverary Drive – ~350m from Runway ~50m from M3 Sydenham Bypass ~40m from Railway

337292 375552 SE

ASR2 Victoria Park Pavilion – ~620m from Runway ~230m from Sydenham Bypass

336600 375365 S

ASR3

397 Holywood Road – ~840m from Runway ~490m from Sydenham Bypass ~30m from centre of Holywood Road

337960 375640 E

ASR4

Knocknagoney Dale – ~630m from Runway ~50m from Holywood Road / Sydenham Bypass junction

338293 376534 E

ASR5 Properties east of Belfast Road – ~980m from Runway ~75m from centre of Belfast Road

338900 377625 NE

Table 8.7 – Identified Discrete Receptors

Meteorological Data

8.21 Five years of Surface and Upper Air Met Data for AERMOD/AERMET processed from

MM5 Data has been used in this air dispersion modelling assessment as follows.

Location: Belfast, Ireland

Latitude, Longitude: 54.583333N, 5.933333W

Datum: WGS 84

UTM Zone: 30 North

Time Zone: UTC/GMT

Year: 2001-2005

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Existing Environment

Baseline air quality Data - DEFRA Baseline Estimates

8.22 Local background air quality data was obtained from the website -

http://laqm.defra.gov.uk/maps. These maps are provided to assist local authorities in

support of review and assessment of local air quality. Therefore, background air pollutant

concentrations in the area of GB BCA have been quoted in Table 8.8 below. The DEFRA

estimated background air pollutant concentrations at the nearest coordinates to GB BCA

have been referenced for comparison with the relevant Air Quality Standard Regulations

limit values.

Year Grid Reference NOx annual mean (µg/m

3)

NO2 annual mean (µg/m

3)

PM10 annual mean (µg/m

3)

2013 337500, 376500

30.76 20.167 16.28

2025 19.96 13.99 14.89

Annual Average Limit Value 30 µg/m3(V) 40 µg/m

3 40 µg/m

3

(V) – for the protection of vegetation.

Table 8.8 – DEFRA estimated background Annual Mean pollutant concentrations (2013&

2025) in the vicinity of BCA (Nearest DEFRA Grid Reference = 337500, 376500 – i.e.

centre of runway)

8.23 The following background air pollutant concentrations in Table 8.9a and 10.9b were

referenced from the Belfast City Centre Air Quality Monitoring station and the North Down

Holywood A2 Air Quality Monitoring station for the years 2003 - 2011

(www.airqualityni.co.uk). The monitoring stations located in Belfast City Centre and at

North Down Holywood A2 are located approximately 3.5km and 2km from GB BCA

respectively.

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Year Nitrogen Oxides (NOx) as Nitrogen Dioxide (NO2)

Nitrogen Dioxide (NO2)

Particulate Matter (PM10)

Sulphur Dioxide (SO2)

Carbon Monoxide (CO)

Ozone (O3)

2011 49 28 - 2 0.2 43

2010 68 35 - 4 0.2 38

2009 57 33 20 3 0.2 38

2008 62 34 21 6 0.4 52

2007 55 32 19 4 0.2 43

2006 61 34 18 7 0.2 42

2005 - - 19 6 0.2 40

2004 52 28 21 7 0.2 43

2003 59 32 24 8 0.2 42

Average 57.9 32.0 20.3 5.2 0.2 42.3

Table 8.9a – Pollution concentration statistics for Belfast Centre Air Quality Monitoring

Station 2003 – 2011 (city centre location)

Year Nitrogen Oxides (NOx) as Nitrogen Dioxide (NO2)


Nitric oxide (NO) Particulate Matter (PM10)

2011 69 29 26 23

2010 78 34 29 21

2009 77 35 27 21

2008 69 32 25 -

2007 70 31 25 26

2006 74 31 28 27

2005 67 27 28 26

2004 64 23 26 26

Average 71.0 30.3 26.8 24.3

Table 8.9b - Pollution concentration statistics for the North Down Holywood A2 Air Quality

Monitoring station for the years 2003 – 2011 (road side location)

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Potential Impacts

Operational Air quality impact analysis

8.24 The air dispersion modelling exercise has been carried out using the ‘Annual Aircraft

Movement Activity’ for the existing baseline, 2013, and Operating in 2025 (without

proposed modification) and for the proposed modification case in 2025 (with proposed

modification). Tables 8.10 – 8.14 outline the predicted aircraft emissions. The effects on

local air quality have been assessed through the use of air dispersion modelling of the

Annual Aircraft Movement Activity. There is a negligible / insignificant effect to local air

quality between the existing baseline, 2013, and Operating in 2025 (without proposed

modification).

8.25 The total aircraft emissions have been determined based on the aircraft mix and the

typical emissions from the three aircraft types selected to be representative of the

relevant aircraft sizes.

Aircraft Emissions Dispersion Modeling Results

8.26 As reported in Tables 10.10 – 10.14 the predicted worst case annual average ground

level concentrations that may arise from the operations of GB BCA has been reported,

based on the ‘Annual Aircraft Movement Activity’ – without and with the proposed

modification in terms of narrow body, regional and small aircraft engine types.


8.27 Using the calculated NOx to NO2 conversion factor of 49% and the model verification

conversion factor of 3.333, the without proposed modification Annual Average NO2

concentrations (µg/m3) at the nearest residential properties in the vicinity of GB BCA are

presented in Table 8.10 and compared to with modificaiton Annual Average NO2

concentrations. The with and without modification Annual Average NO2 concentrations

have also been compared against the relevant Air Quality Objective annual average for

NO2 of 40 µg/m3.

8.28 The worst case effect on annual average NO2 concentrations is predicted to occur in the

vicinity of the residential properties located to the north, north-east and east of GB BCA.

This worst case predicted increase is approximately 1 µg/m3, which is 2.5% of the annual

average relevant limit value. No exceedance of the annual average relevant limit value is

predicted to occur and the worst case predicted annual average NO2 concentration is

approximately 63% of the ambient air quality standard limit value. In terms of NO2, this

worst-case prediction indicates a small magnitude of impact and in terms of significance

can be deemed to be a negligible impact.

8.29 Figures 8.1 and 8.2 indicate the spatial dispersion of NOx emissions from the operations

of GB BCA, based on the ‘Annual Aircraft Movement Activity’ – without and with the

proposed modification in terms of narrow body, regional and small aircraft engine types.

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Receptor No. Receptor Location

Receptor Grid Reference

2025 Without Proposed

Modification

2025 With Proposed

Modification

ASR 1 33 Inverary Drive

337292, 375552

23.2 23.86

ASR 2 Victoria Park 336600, 375365

23.4 23.4

ASR 3 397 Holywood Road

337960, 375640

23.5 23.6

ASR 4 Knocknagoney Dale

338293, 376534

23.8 25.31

ASR 5 Properties east of Belfast Road

338900, 377625

24.2 24.72

Limit Value 40 µg/m3

Table 8.10 - Predicted Annual Average NO2 concentrations at the nearest residential

properties in the vicinity of BCA (µg/m3) (Including NO2 background conc. of 23 µg/m

3, i.e.

background + aircraft emissions as recorded by Belfast City Council at Grid Reference

337181, 375493)

Particulate Matter (PM10)

8.30 Using the model verification conversion factor of 3.333, the Annual Average PM10

concentrations at the nearest residential properties in the vicinity of GB BCA (µg/m3) are

presented in Table 8.11. The predicted Annual Average PM10 concentrations have been

compared against the relevant Air Quality Objective for PM10 as an annual average of 40

µg/m3. The predicted impact on annual average PM10 concentrations is predicted to be

insignificant in the vicinity of the airport. As stated above, airports are typically not

significant sources of particulates (PM10). In terms of PM10, this worst-case prediction

indicates an imperceptible magnitude of impact and in terms of significance can be

deemed to be a negligible impact.

8.31 Figures 8.3 and 8.4 indicate the spatial dispersion of PM10 emissions from the operations

of GB BCA, based on the ‘Annual Aircraft Movement Activity’ without and with the

proposed modification in terms of narrow body, regional and small aircraft engine types.

100




Modification

2025 With Proposed

Modification

ASR 1 33 Inverary Drive 337292, 375552 15.03 15.04

ASR 2 Victoria Park 336600, 375365 15.03 15.04


337960, 375640 15.02 15.03


338293, 376534 15.07 15.10


338900, 377625 15.15 15.20

Limit Value 40 µg/m3

Table 8.11 - Predicted Annual Average PM10 concentrations at the nearest residential

properties in the vicinity of BCA (µg/m3) (Including PM10 background conc. of 15 µg/m

3,

i.e. background + aircraft emissions)

Carbon Monoxide (CO)

8.32 Using the model verification conversion factor of 3.333, the Annual Average CO

concentrations (µg/m3) at the nearest residential properties in the vicinity of GB BCA are

presented in Table 8.12. There is no Annual Average CO limit value concentration

quoted in the Air Quality Objectives. However, the 8 – hour running average CO limit

value is 10,000 µg/m3. Therefore, it can be surmised that the predicted impact on CO

concentrations is predicted to be insignificant in the vicinity of the airport. The predicted

CO values shown in Table 8.12 relate to the emissions from aircraft only, as there is no

CO background data provided on the Defra website.




Modification

2025 With Proposed

Modification

ASR 1 33 Inverary Drive 337292, 375552 5.62 6.90



337960, 375640 2.93 3.61


338293, 376534 14.4 17.64


338900, 377625 7.1 8.54

8 – hour running average CO limit value (No Annual Average Limit Value)

10,000 µg/m3

Table 8.12 - Predicted Annual Average CO concentrations at the nearest residential

properties in the vicinity of BCA (µg/m3) (excluding background conc., i.e. aircraft

emissions only)

Hydrocarbons (HC)

8.33 Using the model verification conversion factor of 3.333, the Annual Average HC

concentrations at the nearest residential properties in the vicinity of BCA (µg/m3) are

presented in Table 8.13. There are no HC limit values quoted in the Air Quality

101

Objectives. The predicted HC values shown in Table 8.13 relate to the emissions from

aircraft only, as there is no background data available on the Defra website. The

predicted HC emissions are predicted to be insignificant in the vicinity of the Airport.




Modification

2025 With Proposed

Modification

ASR 1 33 Inverary Drive

337292, 375552 0.73 0.87



337960, 375640 0.37 0.45


338293, 376534 1.82 2.23


338900, 377625 0.88 1.08

Limit Value No limit value outlined in Standards

Table 8.13 - Predicted Annual Average Hydrocarbon (HC) concentrations at the nearest

residential properties in the vicinity of BCA (µg/m3) (excluding background conc., i.e.

aircraft emissions only)

Sulphur Dioxide (SO2)

8.34 Using the model verification conversion factor of 3.333, the Annual Average SO2

concentrations (µg/m3) at the nearest residential properties in the vicinity of BCA are

presented in Table 8.14. The predicted Annual Average SO2 concentrations have been

compared against the relevant Air Quality Objective for SO2 as an annual average of 20

µg/m3 (for the protection of vegetation). In terms of SO2, this worst-case prediction

indicates an imperceptible magnitude of impact and in terms of significance can be

deemed to be a negligible impact.

102




Modification

2025 With Proposed

Modification

1 33 Inverary Drive

337292, 375552 0.11 0.14

2 Victoria Park 336600, 375365 0.05 0.06

3 397 Holywood Road

337960, 375640 0.07 0.09

4 Knocknagoney Dale

338293, 376534 0.30 0.38

5 Properties east of Belfast Road

338900, 377625 0.16 0.22

Limit Value 20 µg/m3 (for the protection of vegetation)

Table 8.14 - Predicted Annual Average Sulphur Dioxide (SO2) concentrations at the

nearest residential properties in the vicinity of BCA (µg/m3) (excluding background conc.,

i.e. aircraft emissions only)

Road traffic impact analysis

8.35 The model used in the road traffic air quality screening exercise was the Design Manual

for Roads & Bridges (DMRB) Screening Model, specifically the DMRB Screening Model

(v1.03c, 2007), published by the Highways Agency. The DMRB screening model predicts

pollutant concentrations at receptor locations near to roads. It is used to predict annual

mean concentrations of nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and PM10, as well as oxides of nitrogen

(NOx), carbon monoxide, benzene and 1,3-butadiene. It also predicts the number of

exceedences of 50 µg/m3 as a 24-hour mean PM10 concentration. The model requires

input data on Annual Average Daily Traffic flow (AADT), annual average speeds, the

proportion of different vehicle types, the type of road, and the distance from the centre of

the road to the receptor. The DMRB screening model is referred to within the Local Air

Quality Management Technical Guidance document TG (09) Annex 2: Estimating

Emissions.

8.36 DEFRA has stated that if the annual mean objectives are not exceeded, it may be

confidently assumed that the short-term (1-hour) objectives will also be met. However, if

this approach is used, then care must be taken to include relevant locations where the

hourly objectives might apply. If the annual mean nitrogen dioxide concentration is

greater than 60 µg/m3, then there is a risk that the 1-hour objective may also be

exceeded.

8.37 The nearest sensitive residential receptors considered as part of the road traffic air quality

assessment are primarily those existing receptors that are situated along Inverary Drive

to the south-west of the GB BCA entrance, across the M2.

8.38 The predicted pollutant concentrations in the vicinity of the airport due to traffic emissions

are outlined in Tables 10.15. The predicted pollutant concentrations are inclusive of the

DEFRA estimated background pollutant concentrations outlined in Table 8.8.

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8.39 The predicted air quality pollutant concentration results have been compared with the

relevant Air Quality Limit Value Regulations (Northern Ireland) 2010 (See Table 8.1). The

scenarios investigated included the 2013 Base Year, 2025 without proposed modification

and the 2025 with proposed modification case).

Receptor Name

Year Pollutant concentrations at receptor (excluding Background Concentrations for all pollutants except for PM10)

Carbon Monoxide

Benzene 1,3-butadiene

NOx NO2 PM10

Annual mean mg/m

3

Annual mean µg/m

3

Annual mean µg/m

3

Annual mean µg/m

3

Annual mean µg/m

3

Annual mean µg/m

3

Days >50 µg/m

3

Inverary Drive

2013 Base Year

0.03 0.07 0.07 39.33 22.56 17.09 1

2025 without modification

0.03 0.08 0.08 27.60 16.30 15.67 0

2025 with modification

0.03 0.08 0.08 27.67 16.32 15.67 0

LIMIT VALUE 10 mg/m3 3.25

µg/m3

2.25 µg/m3 30 µg/m

3 40 µg/m

3 30

µg/m3

35

Table 8.15 - Predicted pollutant concentrations in the vicinity of the proposed

development due to traffic emissions at the nearest residential properties on Inverary

Road

8.40 Based on the predicted NO2 and PM10 levels it is evident that the annual average PM10

and NO2 limit values will not be exceeded in the vicinity of Inverary Drive due to traffic

volumes on the A2 including traffic from GB BCA. Based on the Significance of Potential

Effect parametres as outlined above, Tables 10.12 and 10.13 summarise the DMRB

Screening assessment predictions and the relative impact on air quality at the relevant

receptor locations.

Pollutant Absolute Change

Change (% of AQO)

Magnitude Sensitivity Significance

NO2 0.02 0.05% Imperceptible Low Negligible

PM10 0 0 % Imperceptible Low Negligible

Table 8.16 - Significance Effects of change in NO2 and PM10 as a result of proposed

modification (µg/m3) at the relevant receptor locations in 2025

8.41 The predicted changes in traffic flows, as a result of the proposed modification , will result

in a negligible and insignificant impact on the air quality in the vicinity of GB BCA.

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Odour impact analysis

8.42 Odours associated with airports may be derived from the incomplete combustion of

aviation fuel (kerosene). Fuelling operations and storage may also result in evaporative

emissions of VOCs from stored fuels and solvents. Evaporative emissions of VOCs from

jet aircraft refueling operations are small due to the low vapour pressure of jet fuel and

Belfast City Airport experience has shown that aircraft refuelling has not been a source of

odour complaints. Typically, the mixture of the hydrocarbons is very complex and the

concentrations are very low, often below the limits of detection of the most sophisticated

instruments. However, the human nose is very sensitive to smells and can detect these

very low concentrations in the air.

8.43 Previous odour complaints received by the Belfast City Council Environmental Services

Department from residents in the area in relation to the airport have generally been

reported as a “fuel / aircraft fumes smell”.

8.44 In 2010, in response to a request from Belfast City Council Environmental Health

department, monitoring for ambient kerosene concentrations was carried out at a number

of locations in proximity to the GB BCA site. Kerosene is a mixture of petroleum

hydrocarbons which is characterised as a colourless to yellowish, oily liquid with a

characteristic odour. It is therefore, assumed that these odorous emissions and

complaints are directly due to the aviation fuel, i.e. kerosene. However, the results of the

kerosene monitoring recorded levels in the area ranging from 0.34 – 2.28 ppb, with higher

levels recorded outside the airport boundary.

8.45 The US National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH) Recommended

Exposure Limit (REL) for Kerosene is 100 mg/m3 (~14,380 ppb) TWA. Therefore, while

intermittent odours may prevail in the area of the airport primarily due to meteorological

conditions, the health implications of such kerosene levels are insignificant as the values

were found to be 7,000 times lower than the suggested occupational exposure level.

Climate impact analysis

8.46 The approach taken to the Climate Impact Assessment is as follows;

1. Review of the proposed modification in relation to relevant legislation and

guidelines.

2. Determination of the existing and likely future emissions of carbon dioxide from GB

BCA

3. Review of the climate change implications of the proposed modification and

determine its overall impact in terms of the UK commitment to tackle climate

change.

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Relevant Legislative Background

The Climate Change Act 2008

8.47 The Climate Change Act 2008 (the 2008 Act) aims to ensure that the net UK carbon

account for all greenhouse gases for the year 2050 is at least 80% lower than 1990

‘baseline’ greenhouse gas emission levels. The 2008 Act gives the government the

power to introduce measures necessary to achieve greenhouse gas reduction targets

and an independent Committee on Climate Change (CCC) has also been created to

advise the government on targets and related policies.

8.48 Due to uncertainties at the time the 2008 Act was agreed, international aviation and

shipping emissions were not included. Domestic aviation and shipping emissions are

included within the current Carbon Budgets framework. The 2008 Act contained a

requirement that Government reconsider the inclusion of international aviation and

shipping emissions by the end of 2012. This requirement was fulfilled through the

Parliamentary Report, International aviation and shipping emissions and the UK’s carbon

budgets and 2050 target - presented to Parliament pursuant to section 30(3) of the 2008

Act on 19th December 2012. This report recognises the uncertainty over the international

framework for reducing aviation emissions and particularly the treatment of aviation within

the EU Emissions Trading System. Therefore, it has deferred a firm decision on whether

to include international aviation and shipping emissions within the UK’s net carbon

account.

8.49 At the time of passing the 2008 Act, a number of problems with inclusion of international

aviation and shipping emissions within the UK’s carbon budgets and carbon target were

identified as follows:

• ‘Lack of international agreement over how to allocate international emissions to

individual countries.

• Significant uncertainty over how best to measure and monitor these emissions in a

sufficiently robust manner, e.g. high levels of uncertainty over both long-term

emissions trends and in-year fluctuations. Specifically, for aviation there were

concerns over the proposed aviation European Union Emissions Trading System

(EU-ETS) methodology at the time, and for shipping there was uncertainty over

which methodology to adopt.

• Concern that inclusion without international commitments to emissions reductions

would necessitate unilateral action to reduce emissions from these heavily

globalised sectors, and so may generate perverse incentives for these sectors to

move operations elsewhere, thus failing to reduce net emissions (carbon leakage)

and impacting the UK economy’.

8.50 In April 2012, the CCC provided advice in relation to the ‘Scope of carbon budgets:

Statutory advice on inclusion of international aviation and shipping’

(http://www.theccc.org.uk/reports/international-aviation-a-shipping). The CCC

recommended inclusion of international aviation emissions on the basis of its inclusion in

the EU-ETS. Since then, in November 2012, the European Commission made a

proposal to exempt from enforcement flights into and out of Europe operated in 2010,

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2011, and 2012 to provide negotiation time for the International Civil Aviation

Organisation (ICAO) General Assembly in October 2013. The ICAO conference, in

October 2013, confirmed that by 2016 the ICAO will develop a market-based measure

and a world-wide carbon management plan for aviation, to commence in 2020. This

decision has significant implications for the application of the EU ETS to the aviation

sector. The EU had proposed that until 2016, when development of a global program

would commence, the EU should be entitled to include international airlines in the EU

ETS coverage. However, this proposal was rejected. The ICAO decision contains a

paragraph saying that no country can include another country's airlines in their ETS

without a mutual agreement between the two.

The ICAO Aircraft Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Emissions Standard:

8.51 The ICAO Council's Committee on Aviation Environmental Protection (CAEP) conducts

the majority of ICAO’s environmental technical work and has developed a range of

Standards to address aircraft local air quality and climate impacts. The CAEP is currently

developing an Aircraft Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Emissions Standard which was a

recommendation from the ICAO Programme of Action on International Aviation and

Climate Change, as part of a set of measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from

the air transport system.

8.52 On 11th July 2012, global aviation moved closer to establishing the worldwide Aircraft CO2

Emissions Standard when the CAEP reached agreement on a CO2 metric system to

underpin the CO2 Standard. As stated above, work is presently being undertaken by

ICAO to develop a global market-based measure to tackle emissions from international

aviation. Due to the degree of uncertainty over the future shape of international

agreements affecting international aviation, in particular aviation’s treatment within EU-

ETS, the UK government has deferred a decision on whether to include international

aviation and shipping emissions within the net carbon account at this time.

Department of Transport, Aviation Policy Framework:

8.53 The Government published a draft Aviation Policy Framework for consultation in July

2012 and an independent Airports Commission was established by the Government in

September 2012 with the remit of maintaining the UK’s status as a global aviation hub,

maintain excellent international connectivity and make the best use of existing capacity in

the shorter term. The Aviation Policy Framework was presented to Parliament in March

2013. In terms of tackling climate change, the Aviation Policy Framework outlines the

following ‘Aviation Key Facts’;

• The ‘gross’ emissions from aviation are forecast to increase between now and

2050 at both the UK and global levels.

• However, under the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS), the ‘net’ emissions

from flights covered by the EU ETS cannot increase above the level of the

emissions cap

• Between 2013 and 2020, the annual emissions cap applied to the aviation sector

within the EU ETS will be 95% of the average annual emissions between 2004 and

2006.

107

8.54 In terms of managing aviation’s environmental impacts the main objective outlined is ‘to

ensure that the aviation sector makes a significant and cost-effective contribution towards

reducing global emissions’.

The International Air Transport Association:

8.55 The International Aviation industry has also made progress in developing an agreed

strategy to reduce its emissions, as outlined in The International Air Transport

Association (IATA) document, A global approach to reducing aviation emissions,

www.iata.org/whatwedo/environment/Documents/global-approach-reducing-missions.pdf.

8.56 Airlines, represented by the IATA, have set targets for a 1.5% average annual

improvement in fuel efficiency to 2020, to deliver carbon-neutral growth through a cap on

‘net’ emissions (taking account of emissions trading) from 2020 onwards and to cut net

emissions in half by 2050 compared with 2005 levels.

8.57 As all current flights to and from BCA are within the EU, and aviation began trading in the

EU ETS from 1st January 2012, this means that all CO2 emissions from BCA will be

capped under EU ETS. All airlines operating flights to and from BCA are required to

surrender allowances and credits to cover their annual CO2 emissions. Therefore,

although CO2 emissions from aviation are forecast to continue to grow in the UK and

other EU countries, this growth will not result in any overall increase in the total CO2

emissions from sectors included in the ETS, because the aviation sector will have to pay

for reductions to be made elsewhere.

8.58 In 2012, the emissions limit (or cap) for the aviation sector was set at 97% of the average

level of emissions over the period 2004-2006 (equivalent to 212.9 million tonnes of CO2)

and will tighten to 95% of average 2004-2006 emissions from 2013 onwards (208.5

million tonnes of CO2).

Carbon Emissions and Energy Use at George Best Belfast City Airport &

Nationally:

8.59 In 2007, CO2 emissions from aviation were estimated at 6% of the UK total (Consultation

on Emission Cost Assessment, para 3.9, page 16 - Department for Transport, 2007). UK

aviation currently accounts for 5-6% of global aviation’s CO2 emissions.

8.60 According to measured fuel sales Transport Statistics Great Britain, DfT, 2011,

http://www.dft.gov.uk/statistics/releases/transport-statistics-great-britain-2011, flights

departing from UK airports to international destinations account for about 95% of UK

aviation emissions. The European Commission has stated that direct emissions from

aviation account for about 3% of the EU’s total greenhouse gas emissions. The large

majority of these emissions come from international flights.

8.61 In February 2013, the Department of Energy & Climate Change published the 2011 UK

Greenhouse Gas emissions statistics. Emissions from international aviation were

estimated from refuelling from bunkers at UK airports, whether by UK or non-UK

operators. In 2011, emissions from international aviation fuel use were estimated to be

33.2 million tonnes carbon dioxide equivalent. This was 4.3 per cent higher than the 2010

108

figure of 31.8 million tonnes. Between 1990 and 2006, these emissions increased by

around 130 per cent, although since 2006 they have been steadily falling until 2011.

8.62 The Department of Transport, UK Aviation Forecasts published in August 2011,

forecasted CO2 emissions from all UK airports. Table 8.15 outlines data from this report

which is relevant to GB BCA. Table 8.15 indicates that the existing and likely future CO2

emissions from GB BCA are relatively very small when compared to the overall UK Total.

Airport Total CO2 (Mt CO2) in 2010

Share of 2010 Total CO2

Total CO2 (Mt CO2) in 2030


Total CO2 (Mt CO2) in 2050


Belfast City 0.1 0.3% 0.2 0.3% 0.2 0.5%

UK Total 33.4 - 47.6 - 49.0

Table 8.15 - CO2 emissions at airport level 2010, 2030 and 2050 detailed (Central

Forecast)

8.63 As a result of the proposed modification, it is envisaged that the data presented in terms

of CO2 emissions from GBBCA in Table 8.15 above will not change significantly.

8.64 GB BCA recognises the contribution that aviation makes to climate change through its

carbon footprint.

8.65 GB BCA is a signatory to the Sustainable Aviation Strategy, a comprehensive strategy for

the long term sustainability of the UK aviation industry. The initiative brings together the

UK’s leading airlines, airports, aerospace manufacturers and air navigation service

providers. Signatories to the strategy are committed to delivering significant reductions in

carbon dioxide emissions, nitrogen oxide emissions and aircraft noise. Sustainable

Aviation supports the inclusion of international aviation emissions in UK carbon budgets,

based on the UK share of the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) cap, providing that

delivery against the carbon budget is met through internationally agreed carbon trading.

8.66 The Sustainable Aviation CO2 Road-Map, published in 2012, sets out an expectation of

CO2 emissions from UK aviation between 2010 and 2050 and compares its results with

aviation CO2 forecasts from the Department for Transport and from the Committee on

Climate Change. The CO2 Road-Map combines an assessment of growth in demand -

derived from UK government forecasts - with analysis and judgement concerning the

available mitigation opportunities, and the extent to which they will deliver improvements

in carbon efficiency.

8.67 GB BCA is also a significant energy user as energy is required for lighting, heating and

cooling the terminal building, for airfield and car park lighting, air traffic, security and

administrative functions and, ground support services. GB BCA currently seeks to reduce

its energy consumption through a number of initiatives:

• Energy Team: comprising ‘champions’ from across the business that meet monthly to

identify and drive energy saving initiatives.

• Energy Audits: carried out to identify opportunities for energy savings – particularly

during hours of closing.

109

• Installation of energy saving devices: such as energy efficient bulbs and motion

sensors in the terminal lighting, as well as a Building Energy Management System to

control and monitor heating and cooling in the terminal building.

• Energy awareness campaign: an on-going energy awareness campaign for airport

staff which involves the display of ‘switch it off’ posters and stickers and internal

energy saving communications, for example, during Energy Saving Week 2010.

• Energy Bureau: GB BCA is currently in the process of installing an Energy Metering &

Monitoring System comprising a network of utility meters (gas, electricity and water)

and a web based reporting tool to accurately understand consumption profiles across

the site and target areas of high consumption and identify opportunities for savings.

• Airport Carbon Management Group: GB BCA is a member of the Airport Carbon

Management Group, a forum to allow for the benchmarking of energy performance of,

and carbon emissions from, UK and International airports. Through ACMG, GB BCA

can gather information, share ideas and examine case studies on energy and

emission reduction projects from other airports.

8.68 The ICAO conference, in October 2013, confirmed that by 2016 the ICAO will develop a

market-based measure and a world-wide carbon management plan for aviation, to

commence in 2020.

Construction Mitigation Measures

8.69 Site roads should be regularly cleaned and maintained as it is recommended that a dust

minimisation plan be formulated for the construction phase of the physical elements of

the ‘project’, as construction activities are likely to generate dust emissions. As stated,

the potential for dust to be emitted depends on the type of construction activity being

carried out in conjunction with environmental factors including levels of rainfall, wind

speeds and wind direction. The potential for impact from dust also depends on the

distance to potentially sensitive locations and whether the wind can carry the dust to

these locations. The majority of any dust produced will be deposited close to the source

and any impacts from dust deposition will typically be within several hundred metres of

the construction area.

8.70 The implementation of a dust minimisation plan during the construction phase of the

project should include measures such as:

• Appropriate hard surface roads should be swept to remove mud and aggregate

materials from their surface while any unsurfaced roads should be restricted to

essential site traffic only.

• Any site roads with the potential to give rise to dust should be regularly watered, as

appropriate, during dry and/or windy conditions (also applies to vehicles removing

or delivering material with dust potential to and from the site).

• All vehicles exiting the site should make use of a wheel wash facility prior to

entering onto public roads, to ensure mud and other wastes are not tracked onto

public roads.

• Public roads outside the site should be regularly inspected for cleanliness, and

cleaned as necessary.

110

• Material handling systems and site stockpiling of materials should be designed and

laid out to minimise exposure to wind.

• Water misting or sprays should be used as required if particularly dusty activities

are being carried out or are necessary during dry or windy periods.

• All vehicles which present a risk of spillage of materials, while either delivering or

removing materials, should be loaded in such a way as to prevent spillage on to

the public roads.

Conclusions

8.71 In relation to the Air Quality Standards Regulations (Northern Ireland) 2010 and

assessment of the comparison between the ‘Annual Aircraft Movement Activity’ – without

(i.e. SFS retained) and with (i.e. SFS removed) the proposed modification in terms of

narrow body, regional and small aircraft engine types, the predicted air quality impacts

are insignificant and not of a level to have any measurable impact on local community

health.

8.72 The impact of LTO aircraft emissions has been undertaken for the aircraft usage data, as

supplied by York Aviation. A worst-case assessment has been completed using the ICAO

Aircraft Engine Emissions Databank which provides aircraft engine emission data and an

assumption that all aircraft types will utilise the full extent of the runway for their take-off

and landing. The outcome of the air dispersion modelling assessment has indicated

negligible impact in terms of local NO2, PM10, CO, HC and SO2 concentrations.

8.73 Existing CO2 emissions from GB BCA are relatively very small when compared to the

overall UK total aviation emissions. Future CO2 emissions from GB BCA will not change

significantly from existing levels.

Sources Consulted

• The Air Quality Standards Regulations (Northern Ireland) 2010

• Department of Environment Transport and the Regions (DETR) National Air Quality

Information Archive, which is maintained by AEA Technology at the National

Environment Technology Centre (NETCEN) (http://www.airquality.co.uk).

• Northern Ireland Air – Air Quality in Northern Ireland - http://www.airqualityni.co.uk

• UK National Air Quality Information Archive (http://www.airquality.co.uk/).

• The ICAO Aircraft Engine Emissions Databank [Updated 10th December 2010]

• The DEFRA Local Air Quality Management Technical Guidance LAQM.TG(09) -

February 2009

• DEFRA (2003) Local Air Quality Management (LAQM): TG (03).

• Derwent, R.G. and Middleton, D. R., 1996. An empirical function for the ratio

[NO2]:[NOx]. Clean Air 26.

• Laxen, D.L. and Wilson, P., 2002. A New Approach to Deriving NO2 from NOX for

Air Quality Assessments of Roads, Air Quality Consultants on behalf of Defra and

the Devolved Administrators.

• Minerals Policy Statement 2 (MPS2): Controlling and Mitigating the Environmental

Effects of Mineral Extraction in England - Annex 1: Dust

111

• UK National Atmospheric Emissions Inventory website (http://naei.org.uk/)

• George Best Belfast City Airport

Masterplanhttp://www.belfastcityairport.com/UPLOADS/DOCS/MasterPlan2006.pdf

;

• Submission by Belfast City Councilfor the Examination in public on the Belfast City

Airport Planning Agreement.

• Integration of AERMOD into EDMS”, Abstract No. 355, Roger L. Wayson, Civil and

Environmental Engineering, University of Central Florida

• Aircraft on the Ground CO2 Reduction Programme; Developed by Sustainable

Aviation with support of the Clinton Climate Initiative and administered by the UK’s

Airport Operators Association, June 2010.

• Sustainable Aviation Progress Report ’09 - www.sustainableaviation.co.uk

• Department of Transport, UK Aviation Forecasts, August 2011.

• Aviation Policy Framework, Presented to Parliament by the Secretary of State for

Transport by Command of Her Majesty (March, 2013)

• Planning Appeal by TAG Farnborough Airport Ltd APP/P1750/A/09/2118357

(Planning decision announced in February, 2011).

• Public inquiry opens into Stansted's plans to raise the limit on its existing runway

operation from 25m to 35m passengers a year (May, 2007)

• Proposal for a decision of the European Parliament and of the council derogating

temporarily from Directive 2003/87/EC of the European Parliament and of the

Council establishing a scheme for greenhouse gas emission allowance trading

within the Community (2012).

• 2011 UK Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Final Figures. Department of Energy and

Climate Change (February, 2013)

• A global approach to reducing aviation emissions, The International Air Transport

Association (November, 2009)

• The International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) Fact Sheet – Aircraft CO2

emissions standard metric system (2013).

• Department of Energy & Climate Change, International aviation and shipping

emissions and the UK’s carbon budgets and 2050 target (December 2012)

• DEFRA, Revision to the Method of Estimating Emissions from Aircraft in the UK

Greenhouse Gas Inventory, July 2004.

• Sustainable Aviation, Sustainable Aviation CO2 Road Map (March 2012)

• Sustainable Aviation, Response to Call for Evidence: Aviation and Climate Change

(May 2013)

• Department for Transport, UK Aviation Forecasts (August 2011).

• Department for Transport, Transport Statistics Great Britain, 2011

• Committee on the Medical Effects of Air pollutants (2010).The Mortality Effects of

Long-Term Exposure to Particulate Air Pollution in the United Kingdom.

• European Commission (2001) Clean Air For Europe available at

http://ec.europa.eu/environment/air/cafe/index.htm.

• World Health Organisation. (2000). Evaluation and use of epidemiological evidence

for environmental health risk assessment. Guideline document. Copenhagen:

World Health Organisation Regional Office for Europe.