8/9/2019 5 Traffic Forecasts

1/3

Traffic Forecasts: Telephony

Provide a basis for decisions on investments in the network; should give

information about future demands for telecommunications.

Traffic forecast must be accurate as possible and should be derived from

present traffic figures which are as accurate as possible Importance of these forecasts is increasing; market plan and the product plan

rely heavily on them.

Time aspect is very important since its only an estimate; network operators

therefore use forecast periods of different lengths

As a rule, the following activities are included

Forecasting methods

!orecasting method determines basic data to be used and, to some e"tent, the

outcome.

Three #$% groups of methods

Purpose and conditions defined

Traffic measurement data, data of population growth and

economic development, and outcome of earlier forecasts.

&e'uirements for data accuracy and the forecast period.

(ata gathered is processed.

8/9/2019 5 Traffic Forecasts

2/3

). trend methods;

*. statistical demand analysis; and

$. assessment methods.

Trend methods

!ind main trend over a long or short period.

+est suited for obects with even growth and for short forecast periods.

If the development is e"ponential, the trend can be appro"imated as the mean

percentage growth during the period #similar to the calculation of compound

interest%.

-"ample

If the number of subscribers in an e"change area has increased by about * in the

past five years, then this increase marks the main trend. /e can draw the conclusion

that in the ne"t three0year period there will be $ " * 1 2 new subscribers in the

area.

!igure A trend method

Statistical demand analysis

3eeks to map out those factors which underlie the earlier development.

4hanges that can be e"pected during the forecasting period are then collated.

-"ample

8/9/2019 5 Traffic Forecasts

3/3

A town may be dominated by one big company that has recruited about ) people

annually in the last few years. If this need for recruiting continues to e"ist, one may

reckon that the growth ascribable to the company will keep on at the same rate.

/ith these background factors as a basis, the network operator creates mathematical

models describing the current conditions. The relationships are then used forforecasting.

+asic data is obtained from statistics processed by labour market authorities, county

or city administrative boards and other bodies.

Assessment methods

5se of assessment methods re'uires that a forecast should be based on

previous e"perience or collected information.

+asic data is not systematically analysed. These models can be used when

preconditions for trend proection or statistical demand analysis are lacking.

6ne variant is known as the analogy method it is assumed that situations or

obects with similar preconditions will develop similarly.