mobile traffic forecasts 2010 -2020 - ungisgroups.itu.int/portals/17/sg5/wp5d/workshops on imt for...

UMTS Forum Report 44Mobile traffic forecasts 2010-2020

© UMTS Forum January 2011

ITU-R IMT for the next decade slot for Region 1/ECC Me eting, 21st. June 2011, Split, CROATIA

Mobile traffic forecasts Mobile traffic forecasts 20102010--20202020A report by the UMTS Forum

Copyright © UMTS Forum January 2011

IMT for the IMT for the nextnext decadedecade slot for slot for RegionRegion 1 1 activitiesactivities of ITUof ITU --R R atat 29th. ECC Meeting29th. ECC Meeting21st. 21st. JuneJune 2011, 2011, Split Split -- CROATIACROATIA

CengizCengiz EVCI EVCI AlcatelAlcatel --Lucent andLucent andUMTS Forum/Chairman of UMTS Forum/Chairman of ManufacturersManufacturersSectorSector GroupGroup




Scope of the new UMTS Forum Report #44Scope of the new UMTS Forum Report #44« Mobile traffic forecasts 2010-2020 »

The UMTS Forum commissioned IDATE to study the mobi le traffic forecasts 2010-2020 and this report covers:

► Main trends and drivers for Mobile Broadband (MBB) for years 2010-20,► Collection of MBB deployment statistics, ► The development of a model for the evolution of mobile traffic& services,► Global traffic forecasts and traffic forecasts for a representative Western

European country.




Trends and driversTrends and drivers




Main trends (1)Main trends (1)► Mobile voice overtaken by mobile data at 2009, in terms of traffic generated on

mobile networks.

► Mobile voice traffic growth is expected to remain limited compared to the explosive growth in data traffic from 2010 to 2020.

► Currently mobile data traffic generated by mobile broadband (1) subscribers istaking off. In Nov 2010, one Scandinavian operator indicated that average► 3G smart phone user: 375 MB/month �� 12 MB/day► 3G broadband user (e.g. via HSPA data card): 5 GB/ month ��167 MB/day► LTE consumer (data card usage only) : 15 GB/month �� 500 MB/day

► In the US, one mobile operator announced an average data of 7 GB per monthfor a base of 2 million subscribers in July 2010.

► Growing number of mobile devices such as tablets, dongles, smartphones andconnected devices

(1) By “Mobile Broadband”, the UMTS Forum refers to sub scriptions and devices using technologies that can offer 3G bitrates (or higher, such as HSPA, HSP A+ and LTE). In this context, GSM and GPRS are not considered as Mobile Broadband technologies.




Main trends (2)Main trends (2)► The LTE ecosystem is developing rapidly as LTE took off in year 2010 and LTE-

Advanced is planned for 2015 according to time to market expectations.

► In 2010, the machine-to-machine (M2M) market already represents 53 millionmodules. M2M will continue to grow significantly.

►In the future, the main contribution for mobile traffic will come from other devices,such as tablets, dongles,smart phones and other connected devices.

► Small cells and Femtocells are becoming the solutions of choice for increasing network capacity.

► Social networking has become very important for mobile users and now represents new consumption patterns and generates significant traffic.

► Video has grown dramatically to become the dominant source of data traffic viastreaming and downloading.

►Consumption of TV content is also generating increasingly significant data trafficon mobile networks.

In UMT Forum report, we refer to dongles for the type of usage rather than the physical device: In future, this functionality will be more frequently in tegrated within portable computers.




Drivers Drivers (2007 vs 2010)(2007 vs 2010)2007 Drivers 2010

Device evolution – e.g. usability, functionality, ca pacity and battery life

Significant evolution as evidenced by smart phones and tablets

Level of fixed-mobile substitution More complementarities than substitution (attractiveness of dongles)

Supply side change – e.g. consolidation and entry of new players Consolidation in the UK and in the USA. New entrant s in the TDD field (India, Japan, Europe, Russia…)

Availability of spectrum for LTE services Digital Dividend and 2.6 GHz band becoming availabl e

Level of demand for non-voice services requiring hi gher performance networks

High demand for video services

Evolution of LTE ecosystem Rapid development

Impact of alternative wireless standards (e.g. WIMA X and proprietary BB FWA)

Low impact, LTE is becoming dominant

Actual LTE network performance As expected

LTE standard convergence of UMTS and CDMA2000 evolu tion LTE chosen by HSPA and CDMA2000 operators

Global macroeconomic environment Mixed

Demographic trends No significant change

Investor willingness to finance new network rollout Limited

Timing for LTE network and device availability On track

Legend: significant change compared with 2007 | no significant change




Drivers Drivers (1/2) (1/2) Main changes compared to 2005 findings:►The smartphones impact

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

France Germany Italy Spain UK

USA Japan South Korea Europe World

Source: IDATEShare of smartphones in mobile shipments, 2010-2014 forecast




Drivers Drivers (2/2)(2/2)Main changes compared to 2005 findings:►New devices: tablets & other connected devices and►Evolutions of the mobile value chain

Enablers of mobile Internet

2008 2010 2015

Mobile traffic

Networks

Terminals

Applications

Tariff plans

HSPA HSPA+ LTE LTE-Advanced

App stores launch App stores growth

iPhone Android smartphones Tablets Connected devices

Unlimited pricing Introduction of tiered pricing Content based pricing?




MBBMBB --statistics of todaystatistics of today




The The dramaticdramatic growthgrowth of data of data traffictraffic (1)(1)

UK mobile data traffic growth AT&T traffic evolution

Source: Ofcom Source: AT&T




The The dramaticdramatic growthgrowth of data of data traffictraffic (2)(2)

Mobile data traffic evolution (TB per million inhabitants per month) in some European countries

Daily traffic consumption in Europe

Source: ECC PT1 Source: Sandvine




The dramatic growth of data traffic:Country Date Mobile broadband traffic

per daySweden 2009 61 MBFinland 2H 2009 61 MBHungary June 2010 45 MBDenmark 2H 2009 43 MBAustria Q4 2009 42 MBIreland Q1 2010 42 MBIceland 2H 2009 31 MBEstonia Q1 2010 18 MBCroatia 22 2010 16 MB

Slovakia n/a 15 MBGermany 2009 4.8 MB

Netherlands 2H 2009 2.3 MBMalta Q1 2010 0.5 MB

ITU-R M.2072(UMTS Forum)Estimates from 2005

Estimate for 2012 28 MBEstimate for 2020 495 MB

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Traffic forecastsTraffic forecasts

=1,000 Petabytes=106 Terabytes1 Exabyte

=1,000 Terabytes=106 Gigabytes1 Petabyte

=1,000 Gigabytes1 Terabyte

=1,000 Megabytes1 Gigabyte

Traffic units used are as follows:




TrafficTraffic forecastsforecasts --1 1 (Source: NSN(Source: NSN--April 2011)April 2011)Global cellular traffic per year

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20150 EB

10 EB

20 EB

30 EB

40 EB

50 EB

Smart phone users

Voice traffic

Laptops/tablets

Large screen portables (laptops/tablets) dominate cellular traffic

Smart phone traffic is the fastest growing segment more than doubling in 2011

Voice traffic growing with number of subscribers, and still increasing average usage

20x growth of cellular data traffic in 5 years ans 10x when voice traffic is included.




TrafficTraffic forecastsforecasts --2 2 (Source: Ericsson,2010)(Source: Ericsson,2010)




TrafficTraffic forecastsforecasts -- 3 3 (Source: Alcatel(Source: Alcatel--Lucent, May 2011)Lucent, May 2011)

-

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Tot

al T

raff

ic (

Pet

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es/M

onth

)

Smartphone Widescreen DevicesFeature Phone




Main hypothesisIn this report, mobile traffic forecasts represent:

►The uplink and downlink traffic for voice and data transported on using licensed spectrum ►Traffic forecasts include the traffic managed by Fe mtocells►Wi-Fi offloading is not taken into account* nor RFI D traffic or any other traffic on unlicensed frequency bands

•Wi-Fi or any type of traffic offloading on unlicens ed spectrum relates, by essence, to stationary wireless broadband access. It implies so me usage restrictions/limitations on the quality, mobility and security of the service.

•As such, Wi-Fi is a ‘second choice’ solution to a pr imary mobile broadband access. The two access methods (mobile broadband and stationary wir eless broadband) are complementary, not competing. There will always be applications th at work reasonably well in best effort, while many others will need QoS.

•This Report clearly focuses on mobile broadband - th at is, not stationary wireless broadband -and therefore Wi-Fi traffic was excluded from this Report.

Mobile traffic forecasts 2010Mobile traffic forecasts 2010--20 in this Report20 in this Report




Global mobile subscriptions forecasts (including M2M):

Global Base (million) 2010 2015 2020

Europe 1 033 1 222 1 427

Americas 915 1 166 1 437

Asia 2 579 3 825 4 957

Rest of the world 801 1 276 1 863

World 5 328 7 490 9 684




Total mobile traffic globallyAs a conclusion, total worldwide mobile traffic wil l reach more than 127 EB in year 2020, representing a 33 times increase compared with 201 0 figure.

Total mobile traffic (EB per year)

-

20.00

40.00

60.00

80.00

100.00

120.00

140.00

2010 2015 2020

Yea

rly tr

affic

in E

B Europe

Americas

Asia

Rest of the world

World

Source: IDATE

Mobile traffic forecasts 2010Mobile traffic forecasts 2010--20 in this Report20 in this Report




A Representative Western European country is define d in this report as a country with► 50 million population in 2010 and 50.2 million in 2 020 ► 62.6 million subscriptions in 2010 and 85.4 million subscriptions in 2020, respectively.

Representative Western European Country

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

2010 2015 2020

MB

per

mon

th

Low end phones

Mid-range smartphones

High-end smartphones

Dongles

Connected devices

M2M

Mobile traffic forecasts 2010Mobile traffic forecasts 2010--20 in this Report for a 20 in this Report for a Representative Western European Country (1)Representative Western European Country (1)

Main Hypothesis – Traffic mix:

Monthly trafficper device for this kind of country




Mobile traffic forecasts 2010Mobile traffic forecasts 2010--20 in this Report for 20 in this Report for a Representative Western European Country (2)a Representative Western European Country (2)

►Significantly, at least 80% of the traffic volume r emains generated by users, leading to large variations of the total mobile traffic both in term s of time and space variations of traffic. ►Future mobile networks must be designed to cope wit h such variation of traffic and uneven traffic distribution, while at the same time mainta ining a permanent and extensive geographical coverage to provide continuity of service to custom ers. ►These opposite constraints are some of the most sig nificant future challenges for operators.

Total daily mobile trafficFrom 2010 to 2020, total daily mobile traffic in th e representative Western European country will grow 67 times from 186 TB to 12540 TB.

Mobile Traffic for a Representative Western European Country

2010 2015 2020

Per Year (Petabytes per Year) 70 1,860 4,580

Daily Mobile Traffic (Terabytes per day) 186 5,098 12,540

Total mobile traffic per yearThe total mobile traffic in a representative Wester n European country will rise from 1,860 PB in 2015 to 4,580 PB in 2020.




Total daily mobile traffic per subscription

In 2020, daily traffic per Mobile Broadband subscri ption [1] in the representative Western European country will stand at 294 MB as an average and at 5 03 MB for dongles only.

Finally, we anticipate total worldwide mobile traff ic of 351 EB in 2025 representing a 174% increase compared to 2020.

[1] According to the model used in this report, users o f Mobile Broadband (MBB) subscriptions with high-en d smartphones and dongles will represent 31% of the su bscriptions in 2020 and 63% of the mobile traffic

Daily mobile traffic per subscription 2010 2015 2020

Mobile Broadband (MB per day) 10 155 294

Dongles (MB per day) 26.7 265 503

Mobile traffic forecasts 2010Mobile traffic forecasts 2010--20 in this Report for a 20 in this Report for a Representative Western European Country (3)Representative Western European Country (3)




Mobile traffic forecasts 2010Mobile traffic forecasts 2010--20 in this Report for 20 in this Report for a Representative Western European Country (4)a Representative Western European Country (4)

Busy hour traffic 2010 2015 2020

Total Country (TB) 18.6 510 1,254

Busy hour traffic

Previous studies show that the busy hour carries 10 % of the daily traffic. In 2020, the busy traffic per MBB subscription will be 29.4 in the representative Western European country.

Busy hour traffic 2010 2015 2020

Mobile Broadband (MB per day) 1 15.5 29.4

Dongles (MB per day) * 2.67 26.5 50.3

* 10% of the previous table




Trends beyond 2020: 2025 forecastsTrends beyond 2020: 2025 forecasts►The report also provides 2025 traffic forecasts, bu t the report disclames that

► The results presented here in order to show mobile traffic trends but the model for this study was designed for 2010-2020.

► There is even more uncertainity as far as mobile traffic concerned for 2020-2025.► There, the this forecast can be considered as “informative ”only.

We anticipate total mobile traffic of more than 350 EB in 2025, worldwide, representing a 174% increase compared to 2020.

Daily traffic per MBB subscription in the representative Western European country will stand at 452 MB by that point in time.




Conclusions (1)● In this report, key trends and drivers identified during the study

period include:

– Continuing growth in tablet, dongles, smart phones and M2M and other connected devices.

– Social networking is increasingly crucial for mobile users, generating significant traffic and new consumption patterns.

– Video has grown in importance to become most dominant source of data traffic. Consumption of TV content is also generating drastic increase of data traffic on mobile networks.

– Small cells and femtocells are becoming the solutions of choice for increasing network capacity.

– The forecasted figures represent a total of uplink and downlink voice and data traffic transported on mobile networks using licensed spectrum. While traffic managed by femtocells is included in the study, the effects of Wi-Fi offload are explicitly not included.

– Similarly, the forecast does not take into account RFID traffic or any other traffic carried over unlicensed radio frequency bands.




Conclusions (2)● Mobile traffic will increase by a factor of 33 (worldwide) and 67

(representative Western European country ): from 2010 to 2020, total worldwide traffic will grow from 3.86 EB to 127.8 EB. For a representative European country , total daily traffic will grow from 186 TB to 12,540 TB. This growth will come from the combination of a higher number of subscriptions and the importance of video traffic.

● “Mobile traffic forecasts 2010-2020” was offered as a recent contribution by the UMTS Forum in the framework of global traffic forecasts conducted by ITU-R for the development of IMT.UPDATE document and CEPT/ECC.

● It will also be offered as a key input at the next World Radiocommunication Conferences (WRC-12 and WRC-15/16).




AnnexesAnnexes




Key findings (2005 vs 2010)2005 key findings 2010 analysis

Traffic will increase by a factor of 23 : From 2012 to 2020, total daily traffic in the Representative Western European coun try will grow from 250 Tbytes to approx. 5 750 Tbytes. This large growth is due to the increasing number of available services using photo s, videos… which will lead to exchange higher data volumes

IDATE forecast global mobile traffic of 9 EBytes in 2012.

For a 50 million people country, traffic would reac h 175 PBytesper year in 2012 (or 470 TB per day) and more than 10,000 TB per day in 2020

Internet access will be the driver : Mobile Internet access (consumer segment) and mobile Intranet/Extranet access (busin ess segment) will benefit from higher frequency of use and larger fil e sizes. Mobile Internet access subscriber base will grow significa ntly. In 2020, voice is overtaken in terms of volume (Tbytes) by Mobile Int ranet/Extranet accesswhich generates the highest traffic volumes

Voice was overtaken by data at the end of 2009. Voi ce traffic growth should remain limited compared to traffic gr owth from 2010 to 2020The application stores have changed the mobile valu e chain and new players are now part of the game

Voice will stay the predominant service : In 2012, voice (simple and rich) is still the first service category in terms of dai ly traffic volumes. Simple voice duration will remain flat in both consumer an d business segments. However, total call duration will be high er in2020 than in 2012 thanks to the increase of rich vo ice and VoIP calls

Data is the n °1 service category at the beginning of 2010 in terms of traffic generated on mobile networks

Relations between people will expand : P2P communications (such as MMS) traffic volumes will grow from 2012 to 2020 th anks to the migration from text based MMS to photo/video based MMS and thanks to the increasing number of M2M file transfers.

In 2010, M2M already represents 53 million modules. M2M will continue to grow significantly

More personalised services – from entertainment to l ife coaching : In 2020, customised infotainment subscriptions base wi ll be slightly higher than in 2012 but traffic volumes will increa se steadily thanks to a higher use of services

Entertainment continues to generate most of the dat a traffic growth with video representing the bulk of the cons umption

A world under individuals’ own control via sensors a nd location based services : Location-based services daily traffic will grow th anks to both subscriber growth and frequency of use growth

Location-based services are becoming a utility as c apabilities are integrated into smartphones. Services are often offered for free




Mobile traffic forecasts 2010-2020 based on this study

0.0%

10.0%

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30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

2010 2015 2020

Low end phones



Dongles

Connected devices

M2M

Device mix� Reflects the growing success

of smartphones� Takes into account connected

devices & M2M

Traffic mix� World average traffic per

month� (higher in representative

European country)

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

2010 2015 2020

MB

per

mon

th

Low end phones



Dongles

Connected devices

M2M

Main hypothesis




Background slide►This report from the UMTS Forum provides forecasts for the next decade, i.e. from 2010 to 2020 (projections are also given for 2025), on the evolution of penetration rates, voice and data traffic on mobile networks, on the services that are expected to be used and, finally, on the evolution of the use of these services.

►Mobile Traffic Forecasts 2010-2020 was authored for the UMTS Forum by IDATE who reviewed the forecasts presented in the UMTS Forum report #37 “Magic Mobile Future 2010-2020”(published in 2005) and presents new forecasts taking into account the market trends and market drivers as they have evolved since 2005

The report is structured as follows:

� Demographics & economic trends� Analysis of the 2005 key findings� Main trends for the mobile sector

in 2010

Methodology

� Analysis of the drivers� Mobile services evolution� Observed data traffic � Traffic forecasts� Scenarios




Thank you very much for your attention.

UMTS Forum

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