30 th annual climate diagnostic and prediction workshop: opening remarks
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30 th Annual Climate Diagnostic and Prediction Workshop: Opening Remarks. Dr. Louis W. Uccellini Director, National Centers for Environmental Prediction. “Where America’s Climate, Weather and Ocean Services Begin”. The Pennsylvania State University October 24, 2005. Overview. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
30th Annual Climate Diagnostic and Prediction Workshop:
Opening Remarks
“Where America’s Climate, Weather and Ocean Services Begin”
The Pennsylvania State University
October 24, 2005
Dr. Louis W. Uccellini
Director, National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Overview
• Linking the Climate Test Bed (CTB) to:– Other NOAA components– Transition process from research to
operations
• Relationship of the Climate Forecast System (CFS) to the CTB– Status of computer support
Research, Development and Technology Infusion
Respond & Feedback
Respond & Feedback
The Path to NOAA’s Seamless Suite of Products and Forecast Services
IBM Supercomputer at Gaithersburg, MD Computer Center
FeedbackFeedback
DistributeDistribute
LocalOfficesLocal
OfficesCentral
GuidanceCentral
GuidanceProcessProcess
ObserveObserve
Products & Forecast Services
To Serve Diverse Customer Base
e.g., National Association of State Energy Officials,
Emergency Managers, Water Resource Agencies, …
R&D
NCEP
Operations
User Community
Transition from
researchto
operations/applications
1. Large “volume” of R&D,funded through AOs,Agency Labs…
2 Smaller set of R&Dproducts suitable foroperations.
3. Systematic transition steps.
4. New products can servediverse and expandinguser community.
5. Delivery to diverse USERcommunity
Applying the “Funnel” to the Transition Process
1
2
3
4
NCEPis uniquelypositioned
to provide an operational
infrastructure for the
transition process
5
R&D
NCEP
Operations
User Community
Transition from
researchto
operations/applications
1. Large “volume” of R&D,funded through AOs,Agency Labs…
2 Smaller set of R&Dproducts suitable foroperations.
3. Systematic transition steps.
4. New products can servediverse and expandinguser community.
5. Delivery to diverse USERcommunity
Applying the “Funnel” to the Transition Process
1
2
3
4
NCEPis uniquelypositioned
to provide an operational
infrastructure for the
transition process
5
CFS
OGP
CPC
CTB
EMCNCO
R&D Operations Delivery
Criteria
Transition from Research to Operations
Requirements
EMC
NCEP’s Role in the Model Transition Process
OPS Life cycleSupport
Service Centers
NOAAResearch
Concept of Operations
ServiceCenters
Test BedsJCSDA
CTBWRF DTC
JHT
User
Ob
serv
atio
n
Sys
tem
Launch List – Model Implementation Process
FieldOffices
Effort
EMC and NCO have critical roles in the transition from NOAA R&D to operations
Other Agencies&
International
Forecast benefits, Efficiency, IT Compatibility, Sustainability
Climate Forecast System Status
• Components– Atmosphere: GFS(2003) T62/L64– Ocean: MOM3 GFDL Ocean Model– Coupled once/day
• Run 2X Day out to 9 months• The website for real time data retrieval is at:
ftp://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/SL.us008001/ST.opnl/MT.cfs_MR.fcst/
• The climatological data is at: ftp://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/SL.us008001/ST.opnl/MT.cfs_MR.clim/
• Complete documentation available at: http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/ssaha/cfs_data/cfs_data.pdf
Computer Support
• CFS Seasonal Operational Runs - ~10% of operational machine
• Computational support for monthly forecast is in place ~ 10% of operational machine
• Support for Climate Test Bed– Computational
support being applied to approved projects (1/3 of “research” computer) Climate Forecast System
Issues/Challenges/Highlights
• Balances between external and transitional work• Reanalysis support• Multi-model Ensemble and related
application• NCEP, NESDIS, ARL will move into the NOAA
Center for Weather and Climate Prediction in early 2008