The NextGen contribution to the near and mid-term safety Steve BradfordNextGen Chief ScientistDate: June 12th 2017

NextGen &Safety

• Focus on four areas where safety is primary focusª ACAS – Xª ASIASª ADS-B program (all provided service)ª Weather-in-the-cockpit (WTIC)

Airborne Collision Avoidance System X

ACAS – X

ACAS X Overview• ACAS X is the next evolution in collision avoidance

ª An interoperable expansion of a family of aircraft collision avoidance systems

ª Makes use of recent advances in logic programming• Provides the same general role as TCAS II:

ª Surveillance of nearby aircraftª Traffic Advisory (TA)/ Resolution Advisory (RA) Generationª Coordination with other aircraft collision avoidance systems

• Supports New Capabilities:ª Leverages Additional Surveillance Sourcesª Intended for multiple types of host aircraftª Tunable for Reduced Separation Operations / NextGen

Airspace

• ACAS X Segment 1:ª ACAS Xa (active surveillance) & Xo (operation specific) ª RTCA Standard Setting Activity

• US / International coordination & leadership effort • Focused on the development Minimum Operational Performance

Standards (MOPS)

TCAS: Traffic Alert and Collision Avoidance System(Internationally known as ACAS – Airborne Collision Avoidance System)

• Designed for collision avoidance only• Independent of ground-based systems and auto-pilot / NAV systems• TCAS II algorithms and parameters (as far as possible) chosen to be compatible

with separation standards - but:ª Does not warn of loss of separationª Sometimes generates unnecessary (nuisance) alerts

• RAs coordinated between TCAS II equipped aircraft• Complying with RAs can result in deviation from clearance

Set of system requirements defined by RTCA Minimum Operational Performance Standards (MOPS) and International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) Standards and Recommended Practices (SARPS)

Airborne Avionic System: intended as a last resort protection against risk of collision

• TCAS I issues Traffic Advisories (TAs)• TCAS II issues Resolution Advisories (RAs), in addition

to TAs (in the vertical plane only)• ACAS X is a future replacement for TCAS II – same

basic capability but has an adaptable architecture

ACAS X Variants XA – Active SurveillanceXO – Operation SpecificXU – Unmanned Aircraft SystemXP – Passive Surveillance

TCAS Overview (TCAS II Performance Review)

Performance monitoring assessment shows that TCAS works asintended but alerts during many normal, safe operations

Challenges for TCAS II in the Future

ACAS – X Operational Benefit: Reduction in RAs

Safety Benefit: Reduction in Collision Risk

• ACASXu:OptimizedDetectandAvoid(DAA)solutionforUASasdefinedbyRTCASC-147&SC-228intheformofMinimumOperationalPerformanceStandards(MOPS)– Sept2020

RTCA MOPS-System Description

-Performance Requirements-Testing Requirements

-Installed System Performance

FAA TSO-Approval for avionics

-Invokes MOPS-Specifies Qualification

-Specifies Markings

FAA Advisory Circular-Approval for avionics

installation-Describes certification

process-Approval for Operational

Use-Training, Maintenance,

Procedures

ACAS Xu

ACASXa ACASXu

CooperativeSurveillance

• ADS-Bvalidatedbyactivesurveillance • ADS-Bvalidatedbyactivesurveillance

Non-cooperativeSurveillance

• Doesnotprovideprotection fornon-transponderequipped intruders

• Trackedoutput fromprimaryradar,EO,IRorothersensor

Threatlogic• Tuned foraircraftmeetingTCASperformanceassumptions(2,500fpmclimb/descent)

• Accommodatesrangeofvehicleverticalperformance• “Nucleus”functionswitchesbetweenverticalandhorizontaltablesbasedonsurveillancequalityandvehicleperformance

Advisories

• TrafficAlerts• StandardTCASVerticalRAs• EithermanualorautomatedRAresponse

• TAorSelfSeparationAlert• VerticalResolutionAdvisories• HorizontalResolutionAdvisories• AutomaticRAresponse

Coordination • StandardTCAScoordinationover1030MHz

• Supports• TCAScoordinationover1030MHz• Responsivecoordinationover1030MHz• ActiveCoordinationover1090MHzADS-B

ACAS Xu

Aviation Safety Information Analysis

and Sharing (ASIAS)

ASIAS Overview

A collaborative government and industry initiative to share and analyze data to proactively discover system safety concerns before accidents or incidents occur, leading to timely mitigation and prevention. Information shared through ASIAS enables future System Safety Assessment

ASIAS – Supports FAA Strategic Goals• Administrator’s Strategic Initiative – Make Aviation Safer and Smarter --

Risk Based Decision Makingª ASIAS supports the development of common taxonomies to be used

consistently across the FAA and industryª ASIAS provides access to aggregated safety information through interactive

visualization techniques via a web-based portalª ASIAS enables analysis of systemic safety risks across Lines of Business in a

consistent and automated way• Performance goals

ª Reduce Commercial fatalities to < 6.2 per 100M persons on board by 2018ª Reduce GA fatal accident rate to < 1 per 100,000 flight hours by 2018ª Maintain rate of serious runway incursions at or below 20 per 1000 eventsª Reduce risks in flight by limiting serious loss of separation rate to < 20 per

1000 losses of standard separationTo date, 22 CAST Safety Enhancements have been developed based upon ASIAS analysis and dozens of safety requests have been completed for FAA LOBs supporting FAA objectives

• Add graphic

ASIAS - Benefits

• ASIAS serves as a central conduit for the exchange of aviation safety information and analytical capabilities across the global aviation community

ª Provides insight into emerging risks that may not have been detected through the assessment of an individual data source

ª Data is shared and aggregated among ASIAS users to more clearly see precursors to accidents, increasing its potential value for analysis-based insight and providing insights that would not be available if data is not shared

ª Implementation of NAS Safety Enhancements will reduce the likelihood of possible accidents

• The CAST, through its rigorous evaluation of possible safety enhancements, estimated the potential annual savings attributable to data sharing and analysis at $114 million due to accidents prevented through identification and mitigation of previously unknown safety issues

Safety

Cost Avoidance

RNAV Departure Deviations

Standard Terminal Arrivals (STAR)• Simplify clearance delivery• Facilitate transition

ExampleRNAVdeparturedeviationatDFW

• DeviationsanddocumentedlossofseparationeventsatmanyairportswithRNAVdepartures

• Highprioritysafetyissueforairlines,pilotsandcontrollers

Problem:Altitudedeviationsandthepotentialfortraffic-in-proximityevents§ STARtypes

Ø RNAVorConventionalØ OPD(OptimizedProfile

Descent)ornotOPD

Standard Terminal Arrival (STAR)

Example: Risks Related to RNAV Operations

RNAV Arrival and Departure Safety Enhancements are now Monitored

•RNAV Departure/Arrival Issues Reported at InfoShare

•RNAV Arrival/

Departure Directed Studies Completed by ASIAS

•RNAV Arrival/

Departure Safety Enhancements Developed:

•SE-212

•SE-213

•SE-214

•Departure and Arrival Safety Enhancement Monitoring Metrics

Example: Reducing Risks of Flap Misconfiguration on Departure

§ Resulted in an FAA Safety Alert for Operators (SAFO) in November, 2014 to increase awareness of misconfiguration risks

§ Three events were measured:– Flap Zero at Beginning of Takeoff Roll– Flap Movement During Takeoff Roll– Early Flap Retraction After Liftoff

•Content of this SAFO emphasizes operator training programs to raise awareness of flap misconfiguration events

Takeoff Misconfiguration Safety Enhancements Developed

•Misconfiguration Departure Issues Reported by stakeholders

•Departure Misconfiguration Directed Study Completed by ASIAS

•Draft Departure Misconfiguration Safety Enhancements Developed:

•SE-227

•SE-228

•SE-229•Metrics under development

Automatic Dependent Surveillance

Broadcast (ADS-B)

• Surface surveillance

• Position broadcast

• TIS – B

• FIS – B

Automatic Dependent Surveillance Broadcast (ADS-B)

ADS-B Overview

ª ADS-B is an environmentally friendly technology that enhances safety and efficiency, and directly benefits pilots, controllers, airports, airlines and the public.

ª ADS-B will determine aircraft position (longitude, latitude, altitude, and time) using the Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS)

Air Transport Benefits StatusADS-B Out Radar Airspace (ASSC) Surface

• Benefits Claimª Increased safety on the surface by controllers

• 10% Reduction in Runway Incursionsª More efficient ATC management of surface environment

• Reduced taxi delay• Implementation Status

ª Airport Surface Surveillance Capability (ASSC) • Provides data tags to tower controllers for flights on the surface• First operational use at SFO in October 2016

• Benefits Status on benefits claimed in 2012 JRC to Air Transportª Initial ASSC benefits should be measurable within a year of

implementation

BPM Opportunity Claim Actual Status Comments

Mid-aircollisionrateforequippedaircraft

TIS-Blocations 85%reduction

LimitedGAequipagehampersearlymeasurement

LikelyneedCONUSAirTaxi/GAADS-BInequipageleveltobe>10%tobeabletomeasureadifference

Weather-relatedaccidentrateforequippedaircraft

FIS-Blocations32%reduction,63%reductionofWx+CFIT

CFITaccidentrateforequippedaircraft

FIS-Blocations 21%reductionCFITw/noWx

AviationaccidentrateforequippedaircraftinAlaska

ActiveAlaskaServiceVolumes

~20%decreaseforPart135

40-60%decreaseforPart135

Actualalsoimpactedbyweathercamera,butcombineddecreasestilllessthanactual

Runwayincursionrateforequippedaircraft

AirportswithhighCDTIequipage

5% Equipagetoo lowtomeasure

Avionicstandardsdevelopedbutlittledeployment

ADS-B In Safety Applications

ADS-B In Safety Applications–Summary Points

• Decrease in accident rate between SBS equipped and non-equipped aircraft in Alaska continues to be as good as or better than projected

Claim: ~20% decrease in Alaska Part 135 accident rate comparing equipped vs. non-equipped

• Too early to measure impact on weather-related accident rates and mid- air collisions in CONUS because of limited GA/Air Taxi equipage

• – As pockets of equipped Ops continues to increase regional measurement may be available • – MIT survey work gives indication that pilots perceive usefulness of FIS-B and TIS-B in avoiding

mid-air collisions and making weather-related decisions • Too early to measure impact of cockpit surface safety applications because of

limited equipage (Avionics standards exist, but Boeing/Airbus have yet to deploy)

Weather Technology in the Cockpit

(WTIC)

WTIC Overview

• Portfolio of research projects to develop, verify, and validate requirements recommendations to incorporate into Minimum Weather Service (MinWxSvc) standards and guidance documents for Part 91, 135, and 121 aircraft

• MinWxSvc is defined as:ª Minimum cockpit meteorological (MET) informationª Minimum performance standards/characteristics of the MET

informationª Minimum information rendering standardsª Enhanced MET training

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WTIC Goals and Benefitsª Line of Sight to Implementation of GA Minimum

Weather Service (MinWxSvc) Recommendations• Educate pilots and other users on WTIC MinWxSvc

recommendations to drive the market to implementª NextGen Benefits to GA

• Demonstrate weather products and enhancements being researched to potentially uplink to GA via ADS-B at no cost

ª Low latency crowd sourced visibility and wind information at uncontrolled airports and other remote areas

ª Forecast and trends for wind and visibility• Inform GA pilots of training information on FAASTeam

website and new FAA NextGen weather products/information on NWS website

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WTIC Training Demonstration to Pilots

• Weather Information Latency Demonstrator (WILD) –Pilots experienced weather information latency training

• Weather Knowledge Test Questions – Pilots assessed their weather knowledgeª Also presented results on pilot scores from taking full

weather knowledge test• Mobile MET Application – Pilots performed experiment

comparing 4 methods of rendering winds (results matched demonstration results)

• VFR into IMC Video – Video highlighted risks and gaps that led pilot to inadvertent flight into IMC in a simulator

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