Hydrological methods for river Hydrological methods for river health assessmenthealth assessment

Dr Chris Gippel, AustraliaDr Chris Gippel, Australia

Workshop on China’s national river health assessment programWorkshop on China’s national river health assessment program

Ministry of Water ResourcesMinistry of Water Resources

2012 February 222012 February 22

What data to use?

Cost

Availability/coverage

MonthlyMeasured Modelled

MonthlyDailyMeasured Modelled

Daily

Gaps

Hydrological detail

Record length

Links to ecology

Scenarios (natural)

Measured versus modelled data

Time (increasing water resources development)

Flo

w p

aram

eter

post-dam

Modelled “Reference”

Modelled “Current”

Measured “Historical post-dam”Measured “Historical pre-dam”

pre-dam

China

Time (increasing water resources development)

Flo

w p

aram

eter

post-dam

Modelled “Reference”

Measured “Historical post-dam”Measured “Historical pre-dam”

pre-dam

Australia

Time (increasing water resources development)

Flo

w p

aram

eter

Modelled “Reference”

Modelled “Current”

Modelled “Climate change”

History of Assessment in Australia – all use modelled data• 1995 – Annual Proportional Flow Deviation (APFD) Gherke et al. (1995)

• 1999 –Amended Annual Proportional Flow Deviation (APFD) – Victorian ISC (Ladson and While, 1999)

– Same as Chinese Flow Variation Degree (FD)

• 2002 – National Land and Water Resources Audit – Hydrological Disturbance Index (early version of FSR)

– annual flow, variability, seasonality– Could only analyse 14% of Basin river length (due to lack of data)

• 2001 to 2005 – Flow Stress Ranking (FSR) first used in Victoria

• Currently – Versions of FSR used in:– Victoria (ISC)– Tasmania (TRCI)– Murray-Darling (SRA)– National Framework for the Assessment of River and Wetland Health (FARWH)

Presentation Heading

Presentation Heading

• Scenarios (monthly)– Same dates– Same length– No gaps

• Result– For each indicator

• A single score

• Not a value for each year

1/01/1900 243.725 109.538 257.4481/02/1900 227.025 63.86 280.0571/03/1900 230.778 220.543 182.1051/04/1900 250.652 462.935 195.4861/05/1900 216.589 433.074 199.3531/06/1900 301.905 571.809 301.8941/07/1900 405.367 917.889 405.2941/08/1900 455.198 926.632 454.4321/09/1900 368.633 1160.768 369.691/10/1900 301.631 791.817 368.9491/11/1900 319.783 423.428 348.1261/12/1900 352.138 221.001 347.8481/01/1901 328.6 110.834 328.61/02/1901 290.592 54.89 293.0521/03/1901 258.481 54.129 306.5911/04/1901 361.855 61.032 174.9381/05/1901 163.172 119.497 165.1721/06/1901 129.611 283.721 129.681/07/1901 126.199 218.516 126.1041/08/1901 245.019 419.186 234.5371/09/1901 402.588 1034.148 400.7381/10/1901 310.198 895.842 307.9071/11/1901 445.687 790.655 512.4251/12/1901 361.957 190.02 368.0131/01/1902 325.58 118.17 326.5181/02/1902 296.136 50.837 273.2661/03/1902 325.441 50.96 244.9941/04/1902 268.84 69.636 149.0621/05/1902 118.095 41.039 140.4141/06/1902 103.01 212.46 97.6771/07/1902 103.673 204.951 105.1181/08/1902 228.562 97.02 240.1121/09/1902 172.884 156.044 185.9791/10/1902 278.687 285.351 265.0861/11/1902 304.487 108.548 318.1691/12/1902 228.363 147.405 330.0621/01/1903 328.525 89.626 328.61/02/1903 284.939 41.912 257.3411/03/1903 173.765 85.39 170.1741/04/1903 114.157 132.285 110.4021/05/1903 98.84 178.943 99.9131/06/1903 205.781 311.695 205.7271/07/1903 386.368 704.702 384.9361/08/1903 113.688 391.292 110.3321/09/1903 257.653 702.038 254.7041/10/1903 264.937 840.775 354.1581/11/1903 326.97 445.118 380.6041/12/1903 254.823 234.936 239.7731/01/1904 198.586 294.278 199.2931/02/1904 234.316 138.202 243.4771/03/1904 299.227 86.977 255.1711/04/1904 244.302 57.68 173.5731/05/1904 96.734 133.023 115.1731/06/1904 160.627 298.992 154.5931/07/1904 518.915 871.145 518.8731/08/1904 381.318 725.59 380.7921/09/1904 304.508 850.609 310.9421/10/1904 425.729 1105.908 424.4691/11/1904 500.01 804.045 500.011/12/1904 400.009 247.541 399.9871/01/1905 328.245 120.456 327.5681/02/1905 237.809 62.23 240.5911/03/1905 228.123 42.335 236.0871/04/1905 148.096 68.792 146.6611/05/1905 120.411 87.302 115.511/06/1905 179.429 376.096 179.0931/07/1905 790.306 1565.559 790.0511/08/1905 365.794 857.743 364.6281/09/1905 218.757 680.617 221.4931/10/1905 234.421 855.697 266.7871/11/1905 358.677 936.57 317.0491/12/1905 404.007 416.563 402.3761/01/1906 406.512 146.657 379.731/02/1906 257.133 55.087 264.2741/03/1906 260.724 349.777 273.8351/04/1906 177.796 241.076 205.0071/05/1906 152.527 451.04 158.2721/06/1906 455.248 846.051 455.2481/07/1906 681.191 1557.4 681.1241/08/1906 530.468 1344.177 529.7531/09/1906 827.799 1467.781 825.691/10/1906 1479.804 1986.429 1473.3421/11/1906 615.072 873.537 611.51/12/1906 439.38 796.576 456.6691/01/1907 270.329 296.826 399.4951/02/1907 224.922 142.819 267.8831/03/1907 258.072 96.252 259.8741/04/1907 260.94 99.363 227.5351/05/1907 134.827 172.249 83.9381/06/1907 113.372 257.99 109.6331/07/1907 155.973 267.668 155.8781/08/1907 335.533 704.791 334.5511/09/1907 235.784 530.125 188.9851/10/1907 430.425 563.075 398.3821/11/1907 456.907 479.942 477.9041/12/1907 407.901 262.453 365.5961/01/1908 332.612 157.254 341.4421/02/1908 314.153 94.18 301.3181/03/1908 326.445 67.966 289.5521/04/1908 302.046 50.95 239.7451/05/1908 110.483 126.464 162.421/06/1908 188.239 305.639 197.8071/07/1908 240.335 414.637 240.231/08/1908 161.879 401.324 169.6481/09/1908 266.172 783.796 263.5531/10/1908 286.427 818.068 276.5371/11/1908 384.466 401.738 486.9661/12/1908 374.114 166.504 345.2871/01/1909 328.462 76.853 328.5251/02/1909 241.977 53.19 288.5991/03/1909 223.346 118.353 305.8141/04/1909 234.168 112.124 315.4961/05/1909 345.951 557.139 352.5341/06/1909 654.761 1116.928 654.3521/07/1909 484.267 1219.428 484.1841/08/1909 909.202 2114.956 908.6911/09/1909 368.092 1112.324 366.9051/10/1909 522.762 808.735 336.3411/11/1909 481.112 358.988 568.6351/12/1909 419.652 164.914 413.4141/01/1910 328.6 95.284 333.3951/02/1910 264.492 60.563 220.3541/03/1910 281.154 68.287 238.7821/04/1910 206.568 44.288 242.621/05/1910 74.184 80.439 85.7871/06/1910 93.595 207.729 95.3881/07/1910 343.641 538.048 343.5771/08/1910 215.351 407.831 248.7591/09/1910 768.801 1415.525 770.821/10/1910 499.989 966.612 500.0071/11/1910 499.995 670.87 500.0071/12/1910 399.999 472.549 400.0021/01/1911 247.554 302.508 225.011/02/1911 183.211 382.695 201.1621/03/1911 200.642 470.126 306.2151/04/1911 282.797 223.603 307.8041/05/1911 133.087 205.046 135.7121/06/1911 338.903 661.207 338.8691/07/1911 302.252 777.282 302.1491/08/1911 187.889 777.139 186.5021/09/1911 122.978 531.71 137.351/10/1911 212.422 402.548 215.7041/11/1911 411.194 232.001 445.7271/12/1911 297.456 192.342 338.6591/01/1912 327.041 111.336 331.5841/02/1912 268.717 56.371 245.0451/03/1912 287.51 51.155 301.5841/04/1912 266.257 56.536 195.0641/05/1912 89.192 46.679 92.8351/06/1912 85.084 93.827 94.9251/07/1912 255.891 488.007 255.3541/08/1912 220.362 401.846 219.9881/09/1912 841.487 1594.644 840.8391/10/1912 499.994 889.981 500.0091/11/1912 516.703 638.153 515.5991/12/1912 400.006 749.08 265.6711/01/1913 240.46 336.339 374.8211/02/1913 228.164 112.272 229.9641/03/1913 248.517 289.515 231.0081/04/1913 306.31 243.053 305.8951/05/1913 136.625 235.912 133.2851/06/1913 98.695 300.113 98.481/07/1913 159.692 320.103 165.8411/08/1913 170.655 587.335 173.7451/09/1913 221.578 649.611 225.1591/10/1913 225.602 774.039 238.3851/11/1913 427.125 527.379 395.9441/12/1913 365.104 206.424 352.9591/01/1914 324.487 119.705 328.61/02/1914 292.682 70.844 296.81/03/1914 318.859 49.225 306.9521/04/1914 325.925 100.325 384.4591/05/1914 157.834 218.533 157.391/06/1914 178.16 153.775 181.7621/07/1914 109.565 231.581 108.5451/08/1914 168.456 194.169 168.2841/09/1914 418.994 228.832 336.3311/10/1914 535.117 130.237 484.3381/11/1914 484.888 52.456 494.2741/12/1914 356.912 84.095 347.4151/01/1915 328.6 62.839 328.61/02/1915 296.8 31.337 270.5071/03/1915 194.03 24.154 180.2171/04/1915 109.92 30.409 100.8011/05/1915 89.365 160.384 88.1271/06/1915 537.811 412.725 306.0741/07/1915 610.615 1075.56 567.0291/08/1915 627.581 1370.905 626.6761/09/1915 383.538 1027.491 381.7851/10/1915 390.77 1639.498 380.3141/11/1915 500.01 825.178 412.3141/12/1915 399.993 313.669 418.7671/01/1916 304.86 141.902 329.0571/02/1916 242.872 115.559 250.7651/03/1916 241.163 108.965 317.1851/04/1916 138.687 84.758 276.3731/05/1916 129.682 126.888 147.5041/06/1916 131.712 269.638 133.9831/07/1916 743.595 1406.566 743.5451/08/1916 664.181 1212.192 663.6071/09/1916 758.236 1574.547 757.1611/10/1916 753.502 1503.328 858.6861/11/1916 1008.395 1404.571 1012.2651/12/1916 695.043 1147.217 690.3531/01/1917 246.034 432.565 260.5361/02/1917 237.651 239.88 226.7221/03/1917 284.435 239.11 291.901

Date Natural Current ∆Climate

Modelled scenarios

0.77

0.930.98

0.90 0.910.99 0.98 0.997 0.96 0.94 0.96

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

A SA SP LF (Q90) HF (Q10) PZD (Q99.5)

FD CV Mean Ann Q

Median Ann Q

FSR Overall

Hyd

rolo

gica

l ch

ange

Ind

ex v

alue

Site distribution

Hydrology station

Modelled hydrology point

New approaches – using measured data

No e-flows study• Assume monthly data

available

• Assume data available before regulation - “reference” hydrology

• Calculate ecologically meaningful indicators

• Score from 0 - 1

E-flows study done• Assume daily data available

• E-flows recommended components define the “reference” hydrology

• Measure the compliance of the flow with the e-flows components

• Score from 0 - 1

Flow Health – monthly data

Taizihe – LiaoyangHigh disturbance太子河 -辽阳 , 人类干扰很大

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct

Mo

nth

ly f

low

(m

3

106)

50th percentile in reference period

25th percentile in reference period

Year 1999/2000

Persistently low (PLF)and persistentlyvery low (PVL)

Persistentlyhigh (PHF)

High f low season volumegreatly reduced (HFV)

Low f low season volumegreatly reduced (LFV)

Seasonality altered (SFS)

Lowest monthly f lowgreatly reduced

from reference (LMF)

Highest monthly f lowmoderately reducedfrom reference (HMF)

Flow Health – monthly data

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug

Mo

nth

ly f

low

(m

3

106)

50th percentile in reference period

25th percentile in reference period

Year 2007/2008

Persistently lowreduced (PLF)

Persistentlyhigh OK (PHF)

High f low seasonvolume OK (HFV)

Low f low season volumeslightly reduced (LFV)

Seasonality intact (SFS)

Lowest monthlyf low OK (LMF)

Highest monthlyf low OK (HMF)

Persistently verylow OK (PVL)

Guijiang – Guilin Low disturbance桂江 -桂林，干扰较小

Score relative to reference

75th

percentile25th

percentileMaximumMinimum

Fre

qu

en

cy

of

ob

ser

va

tio

ns

in

re

fere

nc

e p

eri

od

High flow season hydrological attribute value

75th

percentile25th

percentileMaximumMinimum

Fre

qu

en

cy

of

ob

ser

va

tio

ns

in

re

fere

nc

e p

eri

od

Low flow season hydrological attribute value

V large V small

Deviation from reference range of variationSmall

ModerateLarge

Very small

Reference rangeof variation

Small

Score = 1Score = 1

Score = 0 Score = 0

Example output

• Score for each year• Sub-indicators show which parts of flow regime unhealthy• Sensitive mainly to regulation and also to natural variation

– As for biological indicators

Summary

• Australian methods exclusively use modelled data• Hydrological modelling is wide-spread in Australia

– But mostly in regulated (managed) sections of rivers

• In-house software is used• The methods compare long-term “scenarios”

– No annual scores

Limited scope to apply in China

• New approach designed for China, uses measured data• Free software available• Can apply to most rivers in the world