AEI’S CRITICAL THREATS PROJECT

UPDATE AND ASSESSMENT January 19, 2016

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TOP THREE TAKEAWAYS

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1. The U.S. and EU revoked nuclear-related sanctions after the IAEA issued its report verifying Iran’s compliance with its commitments under the nuclear deal.

2. AQIM is expanding its attack zone. AQIM-affiliated al Murabitoun attacked a hotel in Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso, killing over 28 people. The attack demonstrated the al Qaeda groups’ coordinated efforts in the Sahel.

3. Al Shabaab continued a military campaign of high-profile raids of AMISOM bases. Militants attacked a Kenyan AMISOM unit based in el Adde, Gedo region.

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ASSESSMENT:

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al Qaeda NetworkAl Qaeda leader Ayman al Zawahiri issued two audio speeches and a statement in the past week, an increase from the monthly releases he had made fall 2015. The statements were anti-Saudi Arabia, calling for Syrians to be wary of Saudi efforts and for residents of the Arabian Peninsula to get rid of the “rotten regime,” and also anti-Islamic State in Iraq and al Sham (ISIS). Zawahiri attacked the House of Saud in a January 12 statement, “Al Saud are the Killers of the Mujahideen.” He argued the Saudi regime was aligned fully with the U.S. and must be brought down. Zawahiri also mourned the deaths of al Qaeda operatives, especially Fares al Zahrani, among the 47 prisoners Saudi Arabia executed on January 2. He spoke to Southeast Asians, especially Indonesians, Malaysians, and Philippians in his January 13 audio message. The final statement, dated from December 2015 and released on January 14, was on Syria. Zawahiri warned the groups who participated in the Riyadh conference that Saudi Arabia’s interests were not aligned with theirs and called on Jabhat al Nusra, al Qaeda’s Syrian affiliate, to unify the ranks in Syria. Zawahiri also discussed the first Kharijites, using them as a basis for comparison for ISIS, but describing ISIS as worse because it lied about its role in the death of Syrian Ahrar al Sham leader and al Qaeda member Abu Khalid al Suri, for example.

Outlook: Al Qaeda-linked groups will continue to conduct their local and regional military campaigns as al Qaeda leadership attempts to counter ISIS messaging.

AL QAEDA

ASSESSMENT:

PoliticalUN-led peace talks remain postponed. The al Houthis released several prisoners, a minister and several activists, but did not release Yemeni Defense Minister Gen. Mahmoud al Subaihi, captured late March 2015, and President Abdu Rabbu Mansour Hadi’s nephew, detained since late February 2015. The al Houthis accuse the Saudi-led coalition of using previous talks as cover to make military gains. The temporary truce achieved in December has ended.

Outlook: Distrust between Yemen’s warring factions will continue to present an obstacle to any substantive peace agreement.

SecurityThe Saudi-led coalition continued its campaign of airstrikes in northern and central Yemen in an effort to degrade al Houthi-Saleh missile launch capabilities and reduce cross-border attacks. Hadi’s and coalition-backed forces have not secured Aden, where militants attempted to assassinate the city’s security chief and reportedly attacked oil pipelines. Hadi also ordered a crackdown on al Houthi smuggling activity in Shabwah. Al Houthi-Saleh supply lines may already be under pressure, as demonstrated by a recent confrontation between al Houthi-Saleh forces and a local arms trafficker in al Hudaydah.

Outlook: Anti-government and Salafi-jihadi groups in Aden will continue to destabilize the city, threatening Hadi’s government.

Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) and ISIS in YemenAQAP may be shifting resources from its support zone in al Mukalla, Hadramawt, to other fronts in Yemen, indicating the possible launch of a renewed campaign in al Bayda or southern Yemen or of a new campaign contesting control in Wadi Hadramawt. AQAP also established checkpoints on the Aden-Abyan road. Reported U.S. airstrikes targeted AQAP militants in Abyan and Shabwah, possibly indicating that the group is shifting personnel into those theaters.

Outlook: AQAP will continue to take advantage of the security vacuum to entrench itself in southern and central Yemen.

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YEMENGULF OF ADEN

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SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY: YEMENGULF OF

ADEN1) 16 JAN: Reported U.S. airstrike killed three suspected AQAP militants in Shabwah.2) 13 JAN: AQAP erected checkpoints along the Aden-Abyan road.3) 13 JAN: Suspected AQAP militants fired rocket-propelled grenades at a security checkpoint in Wadi Hadramawt.4) 15 JAN: An explosion struck two oil pipelines in Aden.5) 17 JAN: Reported U.S. airstrike targeted AQAP near Ja’ar, Abyan.

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ASSESSMENT:

PoliticalThe Somali National Consultative Forum convened in Kismayo from January 15 – January 18. The parties involved were unable to reach a consensus on how to structure the upcoming federal election’s electoral system. Additional consultative meetings are being scheduled in preparation for the August 2016 elections for parliamentary and other federal government positions.

Outlook: Continued disagreement between the Somali states on the upcoming electoral process may lead to protests and instability, straining Somalia’s security resources.

SecurityKenyan authorities continued to pressure al Shabaab militants in northeastern Kenya, disrupting several suspected cells and confiscating a cache of weapons in Mandera and Wajir counties. In Uganda, U.S. Marines finished training a Ugandan AMISOM contingent in urban warfare and counter-IED tactics.

Outlook: Al Shabaab will continue to try to establish networks in northeastern Kenya to facilitate future attacks in the country.

Al ShabaabAl Shabaab militants attacked and overran a Kenyan AMISOM contingent in el Adde, Gedo region, killing dozens of soldiers and capturing many. The attackers used a stolen Burundian APC as well as AMISOM uniforms obtained in a June 2015 attack against the Burundian-manned Lego military base. Al Shabaab also ambushed Kenyan military convoys traveling to support the base during the attack and stole large stores of ammunition and several vehicles from the base. The el Adde base attack continues a trend of periodic high-profile al Shabaab attacks on key AMISOM military bases in Somalia.

Outlook: Al Shabaab will likely use the weapons and equipment looted from the el Adde base in future attacks on AMISOM or Somali government targets.

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HORN OF AFRICAGULF OF ADEN

SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:

HORN OF AFRICA

GULF OF ADEN

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1) 15 JAN: Al Shabaab attacked AMISOM base in el Adde, Gedo region. 2) 14 JAN: Kenya deployed troops to Mandera County to support anti-terror operations along the Somali border. 3) 14 JAN: SNA and AMISOM troops conducted operations against al Shabaab militants in Lego, Lower Shabelle region. 4) 12 JAN: Kenyan police clear suspected IED in Nairobi, Nairobi County.

ASSESSMENT:

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PoliticalThe UN-backed Presidency Council (PC) announced a new cabinet for the Government of National Accord (GNA). Two of the nine PC members suspended their membership after the group appointed Mahdi al Barghathi as defense minister, signaling their support for Libyan National Army (LNA) commander and Tobruk-based House of Representatives backer, General Khalifa Haftar. Gen. Haftar has been commanding “Operation Dignity” against Islamist groups in Benghazi. Outlook: The unity government will continue to founder on questions of who receives key cabinet positions. SecurityLibyan National Army (LNA) forces intensified their campaign to take Ajdabiya city from the Ajdabiya Revolutionary Shura Council (ARSC), seizing the southeast of the city. LNA forces discovered stockpiled weapons, munitions and explosives as well as ISIS leaflets. Unidentified aircraft conducted three airstrikes against ISIS targets in Sirte, al Nawfaliya, and Ben Jawad. The characteristics of the strike indicate that a non-Libyan air force was responsible for the strikes.  Outlook: LNA forces will continue efforts to take control of Ajdabiya and Benghazi from Islamist militants in eastern Libya. Foreign powers may increase airstrikes on ISIS targets as the group threatens to seize more territory and oil infrastructure.  Ansar al Sharia and Islamic State of Iraq and al Sham (ISIS) in LibyaISIS militants attacked an oil pipeline near Ras Lanuf and captured several Libyan guards. The group may also be attempting to establish a new support zone in western Libya, where it is reportedly massing forces near Zliten. ISIS continues to consolidate its authority through intimidation and violence in Sirte, Bin Jawad, and al Nawfaliya. ISIS continues to construct a resilient safe haven in Libya.  Outlook: ISIS will continue efforts to expand throughout Libya in the absence of any strong opposition forces, with particular focus on oil infrastructure on the central Libyan coast.

LIBYAWEST AFRICA

SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY: LIBYAWEST

AFRICA

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1) 13-14 JAN: LNA forces pushed back Islamist militias in southeastern Ajdabiya city.2) 14-18 JAN: Unidentified fixed-wing aircraft bombed ISIS positions near Sirte.3) 14 JAN: An ISIS convoy moved westward from Sirte.4) 14 JAN: ISIS attacked on oil pipeline near Ras Lanuf.5) 18 JAN: Clashes resumed between Islamist fighters and the LNA near Benghazi.

ASSESSMENT:

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AQIM AQIM Council of Dignitaries head Sheikh Abu Ubayda Yusuf al Annabi released an audio statement calling Salafi-jihadists to fight in Libya and warning against Western intervention in the UN-brokered Libyan Political Accord. The call-to-arms in Libya is a shift from previous positions, which prioritized the fight in Syria.

Outlook: AQIM and its affiliates will continue to release statements and conduct operations in an effort to drive recruitment, unite radical Islamist militants, and deter Westerners from engagement in regional peace processes.

Uqba Ibn Nafa’a (Tunisia)Uqba Ibn Nafa’a stayed silent this week, possibly training militants or replenishing resources. At least 32 members have resigned from Tunisia’s former ruling party, Nidaa Tunis, giving the Ennahda Islamist party a majority in parliament and sowing the seeds for a weakened government.

Outlook: Uqba Ibn Nafa’a will temporarily remain inconspicuous in their mountain strongholds, likely preparing to take advantage of the weakening political situation in Tunisia.

Associated Movements in the Sahel (Ansar al Din, al Murabitoun) Al Murabitoun carried out the January 15 attack on the Splendid Hotel and the surrounding area in Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso. Three attackers detonated VBIEDs outside the hotel prior to the attack and specifically targeted westerners inside the hotel and the café across the street. The attack reaffirms al Murabitoun’s reemergence within AQIM, which threatened regional French targets the week before, and mirrored the group’s November 20 hotel attack in Bamako, Mali. An Ansar al Din spokesman claimed that militants linked to AQIM’s Sahara Emirate is holding an Australian couple kidnapped on Friday in northern Burkina Faso.

Outlook: Al Murabitoun and other affiliates will continue to carry out attacks on soft targets throughout the Sahel in order to dissuade regional partners from collaborating with France and assisting in the peacekeeping mission in Mali.

MAGHREB AND SAHEL

WEST AFRICA

SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:

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MAGHREBWEST AFRICA

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1) 14 JAN: Tunisian forces arrested nine suspected pro-ISIS militants in Jebel Lahmar, Tunisia.2) 15 JAN: Tunisian counterterror forces discovered a weapons workshop in Menzel Temime, Tunisia.3) 17 JAN: Algerian security forces found and cleared four homemade bombs in Bouira, Algeria.4) 18 JAN: Moroccan forces arrested Gelel Attar, linked to the NOV 13 Paris attacks, in Mohammedia, Morocco.

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SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY: SAHELWEST

AFRICA

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1) 15 JAN: Armed men ambushed a Malian army convoy in Goundam, Timbuktu region. 2) 15 JAN: AQIM-linked militants kidnapped two Australians in Baraboule, north Burkina Faso.3) 15 JAN: Armed men attacked police in Tin Abao, Oudalain region, Burkina Faso.4) 15 JAN: Al Murabitoun militants attack a hotel in Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso.

ASSESSMENT:

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Regional Developments and Diplomacy

The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) was officially implemented on January 16 after the IAEA issued its report verifying Iran’s compliance with its commitments under the nuclear deal. The U.S. and EU took legal steps to revoke nuclear-related sanctions in response, although the UN arms embargo and sanctions on Tehran’s ballistic-missile program remain in place. Tehran also freed four Iranian-Americans on January 16, including Washington Post reporter Jason Rezaian, in exchange for the release of seven Iranians held in the U.S. for sanction evasion.  President Hassan Rouhani, who was elected in 2013 on a platform of economic recovery,  hailed the removal of sanctions as “a golden page” in Iran’s history.

Outlook: The full effects of sanction relief are unlikely to be fully felt before the all-important parliamentary and Assembly of Experts elections in February.

The IRGC branded its overnight detention of ten U.S. Navy sailors and their two vessels as a military victory after a purported mechanical error caused the vessels to drift into Iranian territorial waters on January 12. IRGC Deputy Commander Brigadier General Hossein Salami called the detainment a demonstration of the IRGC’s strength, boasting that “since World War II, no country in the world has been able to detain an American soldier” except Iran. Expediency Discernment Council Secretary and former Commander of the IRGC Mohsen Rezaei said that the detainment was a direct message to Iran’s adversaries, “especially Saudi Arabia, not to play with fire.” Iranian state TV, meanwhile, aired footage on January 13 of the sailors as they were being detained as well as footage of a sailor apologizing for mistakenly entering Iranian territorial waters.

Outlook: The IRGC Navy will continue to act confrontationally in the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf.

IRAN

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SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:IRAN

12 - 18 January

JAN 12: The IRGC seized two U.S. Navy vessels and ten crew members in the Persian Gulf after a mechanical error reportedly caused the vessels to drift into Iranian territorial waters.

JAN 13: Iranian state TV aired footage of the sailors surrendering to the IRGC as well as of a sailor apologizing for mistakenly entering Iranian territorial waters.

JAN 13: The IRGC released the seized U.S. Navy vessels. It announced that the release was made following an “apology” from the crew and an investigation that determined they had entered Iranian territory “unintentionally.”

JAN 13: Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif credited the sailors’ overnight release to “dialogue and respect, not threats and impetuousness.”

JAN 13-14: Iranian news outlets reported that seven Iranian fighters were killed in Syria, including an IRGC colonel.JAN 14: Iran removed the core of the Arak heavy water reactor and filled it with cement, thereby preventing the reactor from

producing weapons-grade plutonium.JAN 15: IRGC Deputy Commander Brigadier General Hossein Salami praised the U.S. Navy vessels’ detainment as a

demonstration of the IRGC’s strength and deterrence capabilities.JAN 16: Iran freed four Americans, including Washington Post reporter Jason Rezaian, in exchange for the release of seven

Iranian nationals held in the U.S. on charges of sanctions evasion. The U.S. also agreed to drop Interpol notices on 14 other Iranian nationals, several of whom have ties to Mahan Air, an Iranian airline sanctioned for transporting IRGC-Qods Force members and materiel for Hezbollah.

JAN 16: The International Atomic Energy Agency verified that Iran has complied with its initial commitments under the nuclear agreement, thereby triggering sanctions relief.

JAN 17: President Hassan Rouhani hailed Implementation Day as “a golden page” in Iran’s history. He also criticized the second round of vetting in the parliamentary elections, during which only 40 percent of registered candidates were approved to run and reformist candidates disproportionately disqualified.

JAN 17: Rouhani submitted the annual budget and the Sixth Five-Year Development Plan to Parliament for review.JAN 18: Rouhani stressed the continued strength of Iran’s nuclear program under the JCPOA in an open letter to Supreme

Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

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ACRONYMSAtomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI)International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM)al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP)al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS)Coordination for the Movement of the Azawad (CMA)Imghad Tuareg and Allies Self-Defense Group (GATIA)Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC)Islamic State in Iraq and al Sham (ISIS)Libyan National Army (LNA)Arab Movement of Azawad (MAA) United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali (MINUSMA)Mujahideen Shura Council in Derna (MSCD)National Movement for the Liberation of the Azawad (MNLA)The Movement for Unity and Jihad in West Africa (MUJAO)Pakistani Military (PakMil)Possible military dimensions (PMD)Somalia National Army (SNA)Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP)

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AEI’S CRITICAL THREATS PROJECTFrederick W. Kagandirectorfkagan@aei.org (202) 888-6569

Katherine Zimmermansenior al Qaeda analystkatherine.zimmerman@aei.org (202) 888-6576

Paul BucalaIran analystpaul.bucala@aei.org(202) 888-6573

Marie DonovanIran analystmarie.donovan@aei.org(202) 888-6572

Heather Malacariaprogram managerheather.malacaria@aei.org(202) 888-6575

Emily Estelleal Qaeda analystemily.estelle@aei.org(202) 888-6570

Mehrdad MoarefianIran analystmehrdad.moarefian@aei.org(202) 888-6574

Caitlin PendletonIran analystcaitlin.pendleton@aei.org(202) 888-6577

For more information about AEI’s Critical Threats Project, visit www.criticalthreats.org.