AEI’s Critical Threats ProjectUpdate and Assessment

July 5, 2016

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TOP THREE TAKEAWAYS

1. Russia is attempting to broker a resolution to the Libyan crisis as the UN-backed unity government struggles to achieve legitimacy.

2. The Yemeni delegations suspended UN-led peace talks in Kuwait until July 15. Hostilities will likely increase during this period.

3. The UN Security Council approved 2,500 additional troops for the MINUSMA peacekeeping mission in Mali due to escalating Islamist militant activity.

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| ASSESSMENTAL QAEDA

al Qaeda NetworkAl Qaeda leaders are emphasizing al Qaeda’s global reach with a surge of video and audio messages. Al Qaeda emir Ayman al Zawahiri threatened “harsh consequences” against the U.S. if it carries out the execution of Boston Marathon bomber Dzhokhar Tsarnaev or any other Muslim captive in a video posted on Telegram on June 30, 2016. The video, which also eulogized al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) leaders Ibrahim al Rubaish and Nasser bin Ali al Ansi as well as Islamic Emirate of the Caucasus leader Abu Mohammed al Dagestani, was filmed in late April or early May 2015, before Tsarnaev’s June 2015 sentencing. Al Qaeda’s al Sahab Media Foundation apologized for the publication delay, saying that the original copy was “lost due to the repeated bombardment on the mujahideen.” Zawahiri also criticized the Islamic State in Iraq and al Sham (ISIS), reiterated his call for unity of jihad in Syria, called for lone-wolf attacks in the West, and called for Muslims to capture Westerners in the Muslim world to exchange for Muslim captives. A second video audio statement from Zawahiri reaffirmed al Qaeda’s support for the Uighur Muslims and praised Muslim Uighur involvement in domestic jihad and support for global jihad on July 2, 2016.

Al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS) leader Asim Umar called for Indian Muslims to emulate lone wolves in Europe and kill administrative and police officers in India in a July 3, 2016 audio speech. Umar claimed in the speech that Indian Hindus were imposing their faith on Muslims, as evidenced by Hindu riots. The U.S. Department of State designated al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS) as a foreign terrorist organization and AQIS’s leader Asim Umar as a Specially Designated Global Terrorist on June 30, 2016.

Outlook: Al Qaeda will continue to demonstrate increased support for its associates and demonstrate its global reach in response to ISIS’s success with lone-wolf attacks around the globe.

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| ASSESSMENT:

PoliticalThe Yemeni delegations suspended the UN-led peace talks in Kuwait until July 15, and military escalations in Sana’a and Taiz make follow-on talks unlikely. Growing divisions within the al Houthi movement may also compromise peace talks. Separate talks between the al Houthis and Saudi Arabia resumed after breaking down in May, and the De-escalation and Coordination Committee, the national ceasefire monitoring committee, was moved from Kuwait to Dhahran, Saudi Arabia. These developments indicate that a diplomatic back channel remains open.

Outlook: The peace talks will not resume on July 15 if the government offensive on Sana’a occurs.

SecurityBoth al Houthi-Saleh forces and government forces escalated attacks in long-contested urban areas. Both sides intensified operations in Taiz, and both rhetoric and military preparations indicate that government forces are preparing to attack al Houthi-Saleh forces in Sana’a. President Hadi personally oversaw the government’s defense of the 35th Brigade Headquarters in Taiz, underscoring the heightened importance of the city. Fighting between al Houthi-Saleh and government forces also surged in al Jawf governorate, northeast of Sana’a.

Outlook: Government forces will increase attacks around Sana’a in preparation for a full-scale assault.

Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) and ISIS in YemenISIS did not conduct a major attack to conclude the month of Ramadan in Yemen following its June 26 coordinated explosive attack on Yemeni security personnel in al Mukalla, Hadramawt. AQAP is focused on reinforcing ground-level support in its historical strongholds in Abyan and Lahij, where militants targeted local and national military leaders. Two reported U.S. airstrikes targeted suspected AQAP members in Shabwah governorate in early July. Militants also attacked a government patrol in Wadi Hadramawt, where both AQAP and ISIS have contested government authority.

Outlook: ISIS will return to a normal operational tempo, likely monthly explosive attacks on military targets in Aden and Hadramawt, and AQAP will continue to grow stronger in Abyan.

GULF OF ADEN YEMEN

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| ASSESSMENT:

PoliticalThe pro-Islamic State of Iraq and al Sham (ISIS) group, Jabha East Africa (JEA), called for members of the al Qaeda affiliate, al Shabaab, to defect, claiming that the group is near defeat in a July 4 statement.

Outlook: Al Shabaab will continue to crackdown on pro-ISIS militants. JEA and other pro-ISIS militants will increase the scale and frequency of their attacks to challenge al Shabaab as the leading Salafi-jihadi group in East Africa.

Security Al Shabaab intensified its operations in the Somali-Kenyan border region. Al Shabaab militants assaulted a Kenyan Defense Forces (KDF) base near Milimani in Lamu County, Kenya on June 30, and suspected al Shabaab militants fired on two passenger buses near Elwak town in Mandera County, Kenya on July 1. An updated U.S. State Department travel warning urging U.S. citizens to avoid the northeastern counties of Mandera, Wajir, and Garissa, reflects al Shabaab’s threat.

Outlook: Al Shabaab militants will assault KDF bases and troop movements throughout northwestern Kenya. The militants may also seek to conduct attacks on areas frequented by Western tourists.

Al Shabaab Al Shabaab militants continue to disrupt AMISOM troop movements throughout southern Somalia. Al Shabaab ambushed coalition convoys near Jowhar in Middle Shabelle region and outside Kismayo in Lower Jubba region on June 28. The militants inadvertently killed 20 civilians traveling on a passenger bus from Mogadishu to Afgoi when they missed striking the intended AMISOM vehicle with an IED on June 30.

Outlook: The frequency of al Shabaab attacks will decrease as the group ends its Ramadan offensive. Still, al Shabaab will use violence to destabilize southern Somalia as the nation approaches the August 2016 elections.

GULF OF ADEN HORN OF AFRICA

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PoliticalRussia may seek to subvert the authority of the UN-backed Government of National Accord (GNA) in favor of the House of Representatives (HoR). General Haftar, head of the HoR-allied Libyan National Army (LNA), met with top Russian officials in Moscow. The GNA Deputy Prime Minister-designate met with second-tier officials the next day, and the GNA Prime Minister-designate will travel to Moscow next week. Four eastern Libyan members of the GNA’s nine-man Presidency Council resigned from the Tripoli-based unity government, indicating that the GNA is failing to resolve regional tensions.

Outlook: Russia may attempt to implement a political agreement that favors the HoR over the GNA. This realignment of international support in Libya would delegitimize the GNA and international support for its counterterrorism efforts.

SecurityThe LNA likely seeks to control central Libya after it consolidates authority over Ajdabiya and nearby oil facilities. The GNA-allied Petroleum Facilities Guard (PFG) retreated from Ajdabiya after the LNA launched attacks against it.

Outlook: The LNA will seek to push the PFG out of eastern Libya and contest the GNA in central Libya.

Ansar al Sharia and Islamic State of Iraq and al Sham (ISIS) in LibyaClashes between the LNA and the Mujahideen Shura Council of Derna (MSCD), an Islamist coalition that includes al Qaeda-linked Ansar al Sharia, resumed after the breakdown of a temporary ceasefire. Misratan forces operating under the GNA remain deadlocked in their offensive against ISIS in Sirte as political tensions distract political and military leaders from the counter-ISIS fight.

Outlook: The LNA will renew its offensive in Derna as the ceasefire deteriorates and the LNA succeeds on other fronts. The fight against ISIS in Sirte will remain stalled as factions prioritize political rivalries over defeating Salafi-jihadi groups.

WEST AFRICA LIBYA

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Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM)ISIS may be planning its first attack on Algerian civilians. Algerian security forces dismantled a cell with suspected ties to ISIS in Libya that was planning to attack a shopping mall in Setif in northeastern Algeria. ISIS militants have previously attacked military targets and a French tourist in Algeria.

Outlook: ISIS may escalate its campaign in Algeria by attempting another attack on a civilian target. AQIM would likely attempt to exploit outrage against an attack on civilians to bolster its recruitment and popular support.

Uqba Ibn Nafa’a (Tunisia)Tunisian security forces continue to crack down on Salafi-jihadi activity, including threats to the tourism industry. Tunisian security forces dismantled two cells and arrested 11 suspected terrorists this week, some of whom were allegedly planning to attack the coastal town of Sousse. ISIS-linked attacks on Sousse and other tourist destinations in 2015 decimated Tunisia’s tourism sector, which remains depressed in 2016.

Outlook: Severe police crackdowns in Tunisia may drive support to ISIS in the long term, especially in Tunisia’s marginalized interior provinces.

Associated Movements in the Sahel (Ansar al Din, al Murabitoun)The UN Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali (MINUSMA) is responding to escalating Islamist militant activity in Mali. The UN approved the deployment of 2,500 additional peacekeepers and authorized MINUSMA to exercise more proactive and robust security measures. French forces made mass arrests in Gao region during counter-smuggling operations. Militants carried out six attacks this week, including a complex attack near Timbuktu.

Outlook: Ansar al Din and AQIM will likely increase activity in upcoming weeks to demonstrate their strength in response to French and MINUSMA activity.

WEST AFRICA MAGHREB AND SAHEL

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ACRONYMS

African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM)al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP)al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS)Coordination for the Movement of the Azawad (CMA)Imghad Tuareg and Allies Self-Defense Group (GATIA)Islamic State in Iraq and al Sham (ISIS)Libyan National Army (LNA)Arab Movement of Azawad (MAA) United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali (MINUSMA)Mujahideen Shura Council in Derna (MSCD)National Movement for the Liberation of the Azawad (MNLA)The Movement for Unity and Jihad in West Africa (MUJAO)Pakistani Military (PakMil)Possible military dimensions (PMD)Somalia National Army (SNA)Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP)

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Katherine Zimmermanresearch managerkatherine.zimmerman@aei.org (202) 888-6576

Paul BucalaIran analystpaul.bucala@aei.org(202) 888-6573

Marie DonovanIran analystmarie.donovan@aei.org(202) 888-6572

Heather Malacariaprogram managerheather.malacaria@aei.org(202) 888-6575

Emily Estelleal Qaeda analystemily.estelle@aei.org(202) 888-6570

Caitlin PendletonIran analystcaitlin.pendleton@aei.org(202) 888-6577

For more information about AEI’s Critical Threats Project, visit www.criticalthreats.org.

Frederick W. Kagandirector

fkagan@aei.org (202) 888-6569