2015 global economic outlook
TRANSCRIPT
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7/24/2019 2015 Global Economic Outlook
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onstantinos Pappas
Alexandros Pappas
2015Global Economic Outlook:Better Than 2014 but Not By
Much
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TheI.M.F. called global
growth !ediocre" in
#ctober in its latest
o$tloo% &ec$lar stagnation in
Ad'anced (cono!ies
re!ains a concern
(!erging Mar%etscan)t grow as *ast as
the+ $sed to witho$t
in*lation.
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P$tin)s diplo!atic
approach to ,ri!ea raises
!an+ -$estions *or the
exportdependent
econo!+ which battles
thro$gh low oil prices
Is the /.&. reco'er+ d$rable
eno$gh to %eep *ederal *$nds
rate near ero in 2015
,hina *aces constr$ction
debt crisis i* the alread+
declining growth rate
doesn)t !eet its
expectations
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er!an+)s c$rrentl+ worlds largest
s$rpl$s li%el+ to shrin% in 2015
3apan)s second increase in cons$!ption
taxes !a+ be postponed as its *irst
Phase bac%*ired in April
The new go'ern!ent has to *ace slow growth
and high in*lation while dealing with the
highest operational costs in atin A!erica
,an the /.K. shrin% the real estate
b$bble witho$t de*lating the econo!+
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The global econo!+ is ta%ing longer than
expected to rec$perate *ro! the b$rsting o* the
debt b$bble d$ring the last decade.
+ears ago6 the IMF pro7ected that the world
econo!+ wo$ld be bac% on trac% b+ 20156
growing at 4.8 percent.
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&o the IMF red$ced its *orecast *or 2015 global
growth to .2 percent.
9hile the /.&. !et the expectations the :;I,
nations
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(xpect contin$ed dissonance a!ong econo!ic
polic+!a%ers in 2015.
>ext +ear6 the ($ropean ,entral :an% !a+ e!bar%
on its own -$antitati'e easing o'er the ob7ections
o* :$ndesban%.
Fights o'er taxing and spending will probabl+ heat
$p next +ear6 especiall+ in the e$ro one
er!an+)s insistence on a$sterit+ !a%es it hard
*or e$ro nations to spar% econo!ic growth
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Will Ruia! an" #hina! clahe withtheir nei$hbor ecalate into arme"con%ict&
Will the Ebola e'i"emic break out o(
Wet )(rica on a lar$e cale& Will #hina nu* out +on$ ,on$!
"emocracy mo-ement&
Will Britih election in May increae'reure on the .nite" ,in$"om to"ro' out o( the Euro'ean .nion&
Will one o( the con%ict in the Mi""leEat boil o-er&
An+ one o* those co$ld !a%e
2015 a 'er+ $gl+ +ear.
eep an e+e on things that are
$n%nown and i!portant
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Then again6 there co$ld be happ+
s$rprises.
The oil boom i a -ictory(or "rillin$ technolo$y
./ raie" "ometiccru"e oil 'ro"uction
more than 50 in ut 3year/
Buine i in a better'oition to lea" the
reco-ery #om'anie are ittin$ on
recor" amount o( cahbecaue o( the weak
"eman" o new
#a'ital'en"in$ is themost volatilesector of the
economy andoften what turns
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Will 2015 be the year theederal Reserve !nally raise thefederal funds rate"
ederal #$en %ar&et'ommittee e($ects funds rateto reach 1.25) to 1.5)
*raders in the futures mar&et
are s&e$tical+ bettin, that thefunds rate will be only about0.5) by then.
-evaluin, is a mechanism to
$ush deation abroad
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the traitacket o( a in$le currency're-ent weaker economie (rom"e'reciatin$ their currencie4 a way(or a nation with hi$h labor cot to
boot it e'ort an" uice iteconomy
) har' increae inconum'tion tae wallo'e"it economy thi 'rin$/ )
econ" one i che"ule" (or20154 but may eek to "elayit i( the economy remainweak #hina i u*erin$ it own"e%ation
Great 'en"in$ on 'lant an"e6ui'ment lea" to ece'ro"uction ca'acity4 whichencoura$e 'rice lahin$ that"etroy 'ro7tability
The "ownwar" 'reure on the
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2015 coul" be lower
than it once wa but imo-in$ 8ORW)R9/