global and australian economic outlook - lgfp conference/5 stephen walters economic update… ·...

See the end pages of this presentation for important disclosures.

Economic Research November 2014

Global and Australian economic outlook The dark side of the boom

Stephen Walters Chief Economist Australia and New Zealand 61-2-9003-7980 [email protected] J.P. Morgan Australia Limited

2

Global GDP growth above trend in 2015!

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% change, saar

JPMorgan forecasts

Source: ABS, J.P.Morgan.

Global GDP growth - % over year

Potential growth

3

Global GDP – sluggish Europe and Japan weighing on the world!

GDP growth - major economies and zones % over year Change since % of Aust.

2013 2014 2015 Last change start of '14 Exports

Emerging economies 4.6 4.1 4.2 ê -0.6

China 7.7 7.4 7.2 ê 0.0 35India 4.6 5.1 6.0 - -0.2 5Asia ex. China/Japan 4.0 3.8 4.2 ê -0.2 20Latin America 2.6 1.0 1.7 ê -1.4 1EMEA EM 2.0 1.6 1.2 é -1.3 1

Developed economies 1.2 1.6 2.3 ê -0.2

United States 1.9 2.2 3.0 - -0.3 4Australia 2.4 3.0 2.8 ê 0.0 naUnited Kingdom 1.7 3.0 2.8 - -0.2 2Canada 2.0 2.3 2.7 é 0.2 1New Zealand 2.6 3.4 2.6 - 0.3 3Euro-area -0.4 0.9 1.6 ê -0.1 6Japan 1.5 0.3 1.1 ê -0.6 17

Australia's export partners 4.1 3.8 3.9 ê na

World 2.4 2.5 3.1 ê -0.3

(Consensus) na 2.7 3.2

Source: J.P. Morgan, Consensus Economics.

4

Global interest rates still low … and energy prices have been falling

25

50

75

100

125

150

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

US$ per barrelWTI oil spot price

Source: Bloomberg.

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14

PercentGlobal policy interest rates

Source: J.P. Morgan.

Global

G7

5

Central banks expanding balance sheets … as asset prices rise

500

750

1000

1250

1500

1750

2000

2250

2500

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

IndexS&P 500 and the Fed's QE programs

Source: FOMC, J.P. Morgan.

QE I QE IIIQE II

50

150

250

350

450

550

Jul 08 Jul 09 Aug 10 Sep 11 Oct 12 Nov 13 Nov 14

July 1, 2008 = 100

BoE

Fed

ECB

BoJ

Central bank balance sheets

Source: Central banks., J.P. Morgan.

6

What could go wrong? Emergence of a negative feedback loop!

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

85 90 95 00 05 10 15

Std deviation from historical averageGlobal consumer confidence


55

65

75

85

95

99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13

% of GDP

Domestic bank credit

DM

EM

Source: J.P. Morgan, IMF

7

US economy – corporate resilience aiding slow recovery

-1000

-750

-500

-250

0

250

500

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14

Chg (000s)

Non-farm payrolls - monthly change

Source: BLS, J.P.Morgan.

5060708090

100110120

95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15

IndexUS consumer confidence

Source: University of Michigan.

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5Millions of units, saarHousing starts

Source: BEA, J.P.Morgan.95 00 05 10

8

Euro area losing momentum … but jobless rate finally falling

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Net balance

European PMIs


Manufacturing

Services6

7

8

9

10

11

12Percent of labor force, sa

Source: Eurostat, J.P.Morgan.

Euro-area unemployment rate

00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

05 07 09 11 13 15

% oyaInflation

Greece

Europe

Germany


9

Japan’s policy change still a work in progress … inflation now rising!

0.20.40.60.81.01.21.4

-8-6-4-202468

91 96 01 06 11

% oyaJapan - nominal wage growth and job offers

Source: Ministry of H, L and W.

Ratio

Wages (lhs)

Job offers to applicants (rhs)

-3-2-101234

87 92 97 02 07 12

% oyaJapan - inflation


Headline

Ex food and energy

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14

% q/qJapan's GDP growth


Four recessions since 2008!

10

But 3rd arrow is disappointing … and then there’s demographics!

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

48 53 58 63 68 73 78 83 88 93 98 03 08

% change, oya

Japan's population


n  Expansion: Ø  Agriculture reform: Separating JAs from Zenchu;

More companies’ participation; Ø  Health care reform: New health care insurance; Ø  Labour reform: White colour exemption,

introduction of guideline to solve labour conflict; Ø  Corporate tax cut: to below 30% in several years

(starting in FY2015).

n  Deepening: Ø  Change firms: enhancing the role of corporate

governance; and Ø  Change workers: letting them accumulate skills

and expertise, not company-specific human capital.

n  Remainder: Ø  Lack of immigration policy; Ø  Raising birth rate: Marriage ratio continued to

decline to 65% for men and 77% for women (35-39 years old).

11

Stimulus in China front-loaded after growth rate cooled

0

5

10

15

20

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

%, q/q, saarChina GDP growth


J.P. Morgan forecasts

40

45

50

55

60

65

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

Net balanceChina's PMIs

Source: Markit.

Services

Manufacturing

12

China’s ghost train? Low visibility … lots of scary things to see

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

02 04 06 08 10 12 14

%Total social financing

Bank loans

Credit to GDP ratio

-10

0

10

20

30

40

100

125

150

175

200

225

01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15

% of GDP

China - total social financing v. GDP12 mth P ppt ch. rel GDP

Change (rhs)

v. GDP (lhs)

Source: PBoC.

8500

9000

9500

10000

10500

11000

11500

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

RMB per square metreChina - 100 city property prices

13

Aussie summary: net export bounce driving GDP growth

Australia – real GDP growth and contributions to GDP

Source: ABS, J.P. Morgan.

Alternative fake markers with connector lines.

Instructions

Enter annotation values in datasheet and name the column with “#annotation”

Use the ‘Insert annotations’ tool under ‘Charting’ to insert annotation boxes.

n  Boxes will be inserted with the correct date and aligned to the date

n  Use gray (0.75pt) lines to connect the boxes to the markers

[Date]: Enter text here. Resize and position text box as needed


Share of GDP 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014(e) 2015(f) 2016(f)

Household spending 53 3.2 3.0 2.6 2.0 2.3 2.2 2.8

Government consumption 18 3.4 3.4 2.9 1.1 1.5 1.4 1.1

Business investment 17 -0.2 19.6 15.5 0.2 -4.9 0.7 1.3

Government investment 5 17.3 -10.2 3.2 -12.9 3.8 -4.1 2.5

Dwelling investment 5 3.8 1.1 -3.3 1.8 9.3 4.8 0.6

Domestic final demand - 3.5 4.4 4.3 0.9 1.3 1.5 2.2

Change in inventories (cont.) - 0.6 0.3 0.0 -0.6 0.0 0.1 0.2

Exports 22 5.7 -0.3 5.8 6.6 6.7 4.8 6.4

Imports 21 15.2 10.9 6.4 -2.0 -0.7 -1.0 2.0

Net Exports (cont.) - -1.4 -2.2 -0.1 1.8 1.7 1.3 1.1

GDP 100 2.2 2.6 3.6 2.3 3.0 2.8 3.3

Annual change (%)

14

Instructions

Copy broken axis/data series symbols and paste where needed.

Boom … bust - previous terms of trade booms ended badly

Tables on top of charts

Formatting guidelines

n  White background

n  Gray, 0.75 line width border

n  Column heading row has gray 0.75 cell border on bottom

n  Text can be added as either an embedded word table or as a text box

CAGR lines

CAGR lines can be automatically calculated and inserted

n  Select chart

n  Click on the ‘Insert CAGR lines’ tool under ‘Charting’ in the PitchPRO menu

n  Select the correct series and the first and last columns needed

-180

-130

-80

-30

20

70

120

170

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

01 11 21 31 41 51 61 71 81 91 01 11

GDP, %oya

Australia: terms of trade and GDP growthToT index

Terms of trade (rhs)

GDP (lhs)

Wool/grain boomWool/food boom (Korean war)

Wool/grain boom

Coal/iron ore boom

Recessions

Last recession

WW IIWW I

Wool boomWool boom

Source: RBA, J.P.Morgan.

15

Instructions


Most terms of trade booms have led to recession!







CAGR lines


n  Select chart



Previous terms of trade experiences

Year of peak% rise -‐ trough

to peak% fall -‐ peak to

trough3 years prior to

peak 3 years after

peak Recession?

1905 26.2 -‐42.8 5.0 3.7 Yes

1925 128.2 -‐54.0 4.2 0.1 Yes

1937 65.9 -‐49.2 3.7 2.6 Yes

1951 186.7 -‐47.9 7.0 2.8 Yes

1974 27.9 -‐33.8 3.7 2.3 No

Ave. 87.0 -‐45.5 4.7 2.3 Yes

2011 94.3 ? 2.5 ? ?

Terms of trade GDP growth (%)

16

Instructions


No market economist forecasting recession in Australia!







CAGR lines


n  Select chart



0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5% oyaConsensus GDP growth expectations - 2015

Source: Consensus Economics

Average JPM

17

Instructions


Lucky country - terms of trade boom masked poor productivity







CAGR lines


n  Select chart



90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

180

85 90 95 00 05 10

Index

Real gross domestic income per hour

Real GDP per hour

National income and productivity


40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10

Index

Terms of trade peaked at 120 - year highs!

Source: ABS, J.P. Morgan

XTrough

based on historical

experiences

18

Instructions


Not everyone enjoying benefits of this extended economic cycle







CAGR lines


n  Select chart



-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

78 83 88 93 98 03 08 13

% change, oya

Australia - real per capita disposable income

Usually only happens during recessions!

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15

% oyaGDP and domestic demand

Source: ABS.

Domestic demand

GDP

19

Instructions


Boom brought structural headwinds – thin industrial base, high costs







CAGR lines


n  Select chart



-50% 0% 50% 100% 150% 200%

Electricity (USc/KWH)

Gas (USD mptu)

Petrol (USc/l)

Average wage (USD)

Minimum wage (USD)

Lending rate (%)

Tax rate (%)

% difference, Australia vs. global averagesThe (high) cost of doing business in Australia

Source: OECD, World Bank, BP, J.P.Morgan.

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14

Index

Manufacturing sector unit labour costs

Australia

NZUK

US

Korea

EuropeGermany

Source: OECD, J.P. Morgan

20

Instructions


Reform fatigue … low productivity … and structurally higher AUD







CAGR lines


n  Select chart



-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14

%oya

Multi factor and labour productivity

Multi-factor

Output per hour worked

Source: ABS

0.40

0.45

0.50

0.55

0.60

0.65

0.70

0.75

0.80

0.85

0.90

0.95

1.00

1.05

1.10

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17

v. USDAUD: fair value and spot


FV model based on: ToT, productivity, public debt, net investment income.

Fair value

Spot

21

The resources capex cliff is here … after unprecedented splurge

0

100

200

300

400

500

Phil. Sth Af.

USA Peru Rus. Bra. Chile Can. Aust

US$ billionMining investment 2005-12 : by country

Source: Grattan Institute.

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

87 89 92 94 97 99 02 04 07 09 12 14

% of GDP

Resources investment as a % of GDP

'14-15


Decade averages

22

Resources pipeline shrinking via project completions

Australia’s investment pipeline – September 2014

Source: Deloitte Access Economics.

0 25 50 75 100 125 150 175 200 225 250 275

Under construction

Committed

Under consideration

Possible

$ billion

$13 bil. - Greater Sunrise Gas$10 bil. - Gorgon 4th LNG train$7.5 bil. - Allied Coal$7.4 bil. - West Pilbara iron ore

$20 bil. - Arrow Energy LNG$10 bil. - Scarborough LNG $8.3 bil. - China First Coal$7.1 bil. Carmichael Coal

$6.9 bil. - Alpha Coal$2.5 bil. - Greater Western Flank LNG$1.5 bil. - Dugald River zinc

$61 bil. - Gorgon LNG$34 bil. - Ichthys gas field$29 bil. - Wheatstone LNG$25bil. - Pacific LNG

Up slightly since June

Unchanged since June

Up $5 billion (6%) since June.

Up $10 billion (4%) since June

Project conception

Project completion

23

Instructions


Exports lifting - supply-side expansion paying dividends …







CAGR lines


n  Select chart



0

5

10

15

20

25

00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18

% of total exports

Australia's key export commodities

Source: ABS, BREE, J.P. Morgan

Coal

Iron ore

Gold

LNG

Tourism

Farm

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15

% oyaExport and import volumes

Source: ABS.

Exports

Imports

24

Instructions


China still taking 35% of Australian exports







CAGR lines


n  Select chart



10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Million tonnes

Iron ore and coal shipments from major ports

Iron ore

Coal

Source : Port authorities of Port Hedland, Dampier, Abbott Point, Newcastle, Hay Point and Dalrymple.

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

% of total exports

China

Japan

EU28

India

Korea

Export destinations - shares of total

07 09 11 13

US


25

Instructions


Tourism to benefit from lower AUD … eventually







CAGR lines


n  Select chart



0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14

% of totalTourist arrivals by source country

Source: ABS.

NZ

UK

Japan

China

USA

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

80

100

120

140

160

00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14

NEERTourist departures and AUD

000s


AUD

Departures

26

Instructions


House price surge running out of steam?







CAGR lines


n  Select chart



0

100

200

300

400

500

600

90 95 00 05 10

000s, median, 3 mth rolling ave.House prices by State

Tas

NSW

WA

VicQld

Source: RPData.

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

40

50

60

70

80

90

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

% of total auctions %oya

Sydney clearance rates and house prices

Source: Rismark, RP Data, J.P. Morgan

Clearance rates

Dwelling prices

27

Credit growth still weak – FHBs all but absent!


Instructions







0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

91 96 01 06 11

% oyaHousing credit - investors and owner-occupiers

Source: RBA.

% oyaHousing credit - investors and owner-occupiers

Source: RBA.

Owner-occupiers

Investors

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

92 97 02 07 12

% of total, both axesHome loans - first home buyers and investors

Investors

Home loans - first home buyers and investors

FHBs

Source: ABS.

Churners

28

Instructions


Rising house prices lead to higher construction … eventually!







CAGR lines


n  Select chart



80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

-‐4 -‐3 -‐2 -‐1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

Dwelling investment response to easing cyclesIndex

Source: ABS, RBA, Treasury

Largest reponse (2001 - 02)

2011 - 13

Smallest response (2008 - 09)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Total New dwellings

2012-13 2013-14

$ billion (2013-14 pro-rated from three quarters' data)Foreign purchases of residential property

Source: FIRB.

29

Households’ income expectations being crushed …


Instructions







2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14

%oyaHousehold income


Gross household income (lhs)

Labour price index, private (rhs)

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

74 79 84 89 94 99 04 09 14

Index

Expectations for family finances - next 12 mths

Source: WMI.

30

… offsetting positive wealth effects from higher house prices


Instructions







-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

06 08 10 12 14

PercentHousehold saving rates

UK

US

Australia


-100

-50

0

50

100

-2

0

2

4

6

8

95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15

Percent

Wealth and consumer spendingAnnual change, $ billion

Wealth to income, adv. 2 qtrs (rhs)

Consumer spending (lhs)

Source: ABS.

31

Debt is high … but mortgage pre-payment buffer is a comfy cushion


Instructions







50

75

100

125

150

175

00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14

Debt to disposable income

US

France

Germany

AustraliaNew Zealand

UK

Spain

Percent

Source: BEA, ECB, RBA, RBNZ

14

16

18

20

22

24

26

11.0

11.5

12.0

12.5

13.0

13.5

14.0

14.5

15.0

15.5

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

% of outstanding loans No. of months

% of outstanding loans

No. of months

Household mortgage interest buffer

Source: RBA, J.P.Morgan.

32

Jobless rate reversal … but still above the rate in the US!


Instructions







3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

05 07 09 11 13 15

PercentUnemployment rates


Europe

UK

US

Australia

54

56

58

60

62

64

66

79 84 89 94 99 04 09 14

%

Employment to population and participation


Participation rate

Employment to population

33

Animal spirits, anyone? Investment outside mining still soft


Instructions







8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

88 93 98 03 08 13

% of GDP

Non-mining capex

Source: ABS

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14

Index Net balance

WMI consumer

NAB business

Consumer and business confidence

Source: Westpac-MI, NAB

34

Indicators of non-mining investment starting to lift … finally


Instructions







-‐30

-‐25

-‐20

-‐15

-‐10

-‐5

0

5

10

15

20

Mining Manufacturing Other

% change

Investment intentions by industry

2012-13

2014-15

2013-14

Source: ABS.

78

80

82

84

86

98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14

PercentCapacity utilization

Long run average

Source: NAB.

35

Instructions


Fiscal policy - what budget crisis?







CAGR lines


n  Select chart



0

20

40

60

80

100

120

85 90 95 00 05 10 15

% of GDPCentral government gross debt

Source: OECD, Budget Papers.

Australia

OECD average

-7

-6

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

85 90 95 00 05 10 15

% of GDPCentral government budget balances

Source: OECD, Budget Papers.

Australia

OECD average

36

Instructions


RBA on hold for now … then rate hikes from late 2015







CAGR lines


n  Select chart



2

3

4

5

6

7

8

98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16

% pa

Australia: old and new neutral cash rates

RBA cash rate1998-2008 neutral rate

Post-crisis neutral rate

Source: RBA, J.P. Morgan.

2.25

2.50

2.75

3.00

3.25

3.50

2012 2013 2014 2015

Percent

Cash rate and selected futures pricing

Latest

April '14

Source: RBA, Bloomberg.

Nov '13

37

Instructions


Benign inflation ahead … as wages growth cools







CAGR lines


n  Select chart



-2

0

2

4

6

8

02 04 06 08 10 12 14

%oyaAustralia: tradables and non-tradables inflation

Tradables

Source: ABS

Non-tradables

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% oyaInflation forecasts


Headline

Core

38

Instructions


AUD down … but commodity prices down by more!







CAGR lines


n  Select chart



50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

1.1

1.2

AUD v USD Trade weighted

TWI (rhs)

AUD v USD (lhs)

Aussie dollar - trade weighted and v. USD

05 07 09 11 13 50

75

100

125

150

175

200

09 10 11 12 13 14 15Source: Bloomberg, JPMorgan.

X

Iron ore spot price: China landedUS$ per tonne

39

Instructions


Australia now one of the few AAA-rated sovereigns left!







CAGR lines


n  Select chart



Country ^Nominal GDP

share, %Bond market

size*, USDBond market, %

of total10 year bond

yieldSpread v. Aus.

10yr

Canada 32% 468 39% 2.01 -‐126

Australia 28% 320 27% 3.27 -‐

Switzerland 12% 84 7% 0.42 -‐285

Sweden 10% 85 7% 1.37 -‐190

Norway 7% 53 4% 2.12 -‐116

Denmark 6% 120 10% 1.13 -‐214

Singapore 5% 68 6% 2.30 -‐98

US

Germany

France

UK

Netherlands

Finland

Total 100% 1,199 100% 1.80 -‐171

(Ave) (Ave)

^ AAA rated by all three ratings agencies.Conventional bonds only -‐ no linkers or T-‐bills.

Source: Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan.

Downgraded by S&P in 2014


Downgraded by Fitch in 2013


Downgraded by Moodys in 2012


See the end pages of this presentation for important disclosures.

Economic Research November 2014

Global and Australian economic outlook The dark side of the boom

Stephen Walters Chief Economist Australia and New Zealand 61-2-9003-7980 [email protected] J.P. Morgan Australia Limited

41

Analysts' Compensation: The research analysts responsible for the preparation of this report receive compensation based upon various factors, including the quality and accuracy of research, client feedback, competitive factors, and overall firm revenues. Principal Trading: JPMorgan and/or its affiliates normally make a market and trade as principal in fixed income securities discussed in this report. Legal Entities: J.P. Morgan is the global brand name for J.P. Morgan Securities LLC (JPMS) and its non-US affiliates worldwide. J.P. Morgan Cazenove is a brand name for equity research produced by J.P. Morgan Securities plc; J.P. Morgan Equities South Africa Proprietary Limited; JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., Dubai Branch; and J.P. Morgan Bank International LLC. J.P.Morgan Securities Inc. is a member of NYSE and SIPC. JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. is a member of FDIC and is authorized and regulated in the UK by the Financial Services Authority. J.P. Morgan Futures Inc., is a member of the NFA. J.P. Morgan Securities plc (JPMS plc) is a member of the London Stock Exchange and is authorized and regulated by the Financial Services Authority. J.P. Morgan Equities South Africa Proprietary Limited is a member of the Johannesburg Securities Exchange and is regulated by the Financial Services Board. J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited (CE number AAJ321) is regulated by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority. JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., Singapore branch and J.P. Morgan Securities Singapore Private Limited are regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore. JPMorgan Securities Japan Co., Ltd. is regulated by the Financial Services Agency in Japan. J.P. Morgan Australia Limited (JPMAL) (ABN 52 002 888 011/AFS Licence No: 238188) is regulated by ASIC and J.P. Morgan Securities Australia Limited (JPMSAL) (ABN 61 003 245 234/AFS Licence No: 238066) is regulated by ASIC and is a Market, Clearing and Settlement Participant of ASX Limited and CHI-X. J.P.Morgan Saudi Arabia Ltd. is authorized by the Capital Market Authority of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (CMA), licence number 35-07079. General: Information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but JPMorgan does not warrant its completeness or accuracy except with respect to disclosures relative to JPMS and/or its affiliates and the analyst’s involvement with the issuer. Opinions and estimates constitute our judgment at the date of this material and are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The investments and strategies discussed may not be suitable for all investors; if you have any doubts you should consult your investment advisor. The investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Changes in rates of exchange may have an adverse effect on the value of investments. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. JPMorgan and/or its affiliates and employees may act as placement agent, advisor or lender with respect to securities or issuers referenced in this report.. Clients should contact analysts at and execute transactions through a JPMorgan entity in their home jurisdiction unless governing law permits otherwise. This report should not be distributed to others or replicated in any form without prior consent of JPMorgan. U.K. and European Economic Area (EEA): Investment research issued by JPMS plc has been prepared in accordance with JPMS plc’s Policies for Managing Conflicts of Interest in Connection with Investment Research. This report has been issued in the U.K. only to persons of a kind described in Article 19 (5), 38, 47 and 49 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2001 (all such persons being referred to as “relevant persons”). This document must not be acted on or relied on by persons who are not relevant. Any investment or investment activity to which this document relates is only available to relevant persons and will be engaged in only with these persons. In other EEA countries, the report has been issued to persons regarded as professional investors (or equivalent) in their home jurisdiction. Japan: There is a risk that a loss may occur due to a change in the price of the shares in the case of share trading, and that a loss may occur due to the exchange rate in the case of foreign share trading. In the case of share trading, JPMorgan Securities Japan Co., Ltd., will be receiving a brokerage fee and consumption tax (shouhizei) calculated by multiplying the executed price by the commission rate which was individually agreed between JPMorgan Securities Japan Co., Ltd., and the customer in advance. Financial Instruments Firms: JPMorgan Securities Japan Co., Ltd., Kanto Local Finance Bureau (kinsho) No. 82 Participating Association / Japan Securities Dealers Association, The Financial Futures Association of Japan, Type II Financial Instruments Firms Association and Japan Investment Advisers Association. Australia: This material is issued and distributed by JPMSAL in Australia to “wholesale clients” only. This material does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of the recipient. The recipient of this material must not distribute it to any third party or outside Australia without the prior written consent of JPMSAL. For the purposes of this paragraph the term “wholesale client” has the meaning given in section 761G of the Corporations Act 2001. New Zealand: This material is issued and distributed by JPMSAL in New Zealand only to persons whose principal business is the investment of money or who, in the course of and for the purposes of their business, habitually invest money. JPMSAL does not issue or distribute this material to members of "the public" as determined in accordance with section 3 of the Securities Act 1978. The recipient of this material must not distribute it to any third party or outside New Zealand without the prior written consent of JPMSAL. Canada: The information contained herein is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed as, a prospectus, an advertisement, a public offering, an offer to sell securities described herein, or solicitation of an offer to buy securities described herein, in Canada or any province or territory thereof. Any offer or sale of the securities described herein in Canada will be made only under an exemption from the requirements to file a prospectus with the relevant Canadian securities regulators and only by a dealer properly registered under applicable securities laws or, alternatively, pursuant to an exemption from the dealer registration requirement in the relevant province or territory of Canada in which such offer or sale is made. The information contained herein is under no circumstances to be construed as investment advice in any province or territory of Canada and is not tailored to the needs of the recipient. To the extent that the information contained herein references securities of an issuer incorporated, formed or created under the laws of Canada or a province or territory of Canada, any trades in such securities must be conducted through a dealer registered in Canada. No securities commission or similar regulatory authority in Canada has reviewed or in any way passed judgment upon these materials, the information contained herein or the merits of the securities described herein, and any representation to the contrary is an offense. Korea: This report may have been edited or contributed to from time to time by affiliates of J.P. Morgan Securities (Far East) Ltd, Seoul branch. Brazil: Ombudsman J.P. Morgan: 0800-7700847 / [email protected]. Revised March 30, 2013. Copyright 2013 JPMorgan Chase Co. All rights reserved. Additional information available upon request.

Disclosures (Economics)

global and australian economic outlook - lgfp conference/5 stephen walters economic update… ·...

Documents