2005 paul vanraden, john cole, duane norman, mel tooker, and jan wright animal improvement programs...

2005

Paul VanRaden, John Cole, Duane Norman, Mel Paul VanRaden, John Cole, Duane Norman, Mel Tooker, and Jan WrightTooker, and Jan Wright

Animal Improvement Programs LaboratoryAgricultural Research Service, USDA, Beltsville, [email protected]

Update on Inbreeding, Herd by Update on Inbreeding, Herd by Sire Effects, and New TraitsSire Effects, and New Traits

NAAB DSEC 2005 (2) VanRaden, Cole, Norman, Tooker,

Wright

2005

TopicsTopics

Inbreeding adjustments Herd by sire interaction variance PTA’s for potential traits of interest

• Maturity (lactations 1-3 before 1999, animal model)

• Persistency (13 mil records, animal model)

• Age at 1st calf (1.1 mil records, 5109 sires)

• Gestation length (1.2 mil records, 3451 sires)

• Milking speed (survey of AI company PTA’s)

Definition of productive life


Wright

2005

Expected and Actual InbreedingExpected and Actual Inbreeding

Bull

1998 Dtrs

2005 Dtrs

1998 Dtr F

2005 Dtr F

1998 EFI

2005 EFI

Winchester 59 27744 2.9 4.1 4.2 5.1

Fred 63 24332 3.2 5.4 7.0 6.6

Rubytom 52 20762 3.3 4.6 5.2 4.9

Jolt 50 18310 3.5 5.0 5.8 5.8

Zebo 55 18115 2.8 3.2 3.7 3.8

Marty 54 17628 4.4 5.2 6.2 6.1

Top 100 Avg 63 8220 3.2 4.4 5.2 5.3


Wright

2005

Elite CowsElite Cows

Nov 2004 compared to March 2005• Cow F increased from 5.0% to 5.2%• Cow EFI decreased from 5.5% to 5.4• Sample cow EFI = 5.0% for 600 Holsteins • Base EFI (cows born in 2000)

– 4.7% +- .6% for Holsteins4.7% +- .6% for Holsteins– 5.7% +- 1.0% for Brown Swiss5.7% +- 1.0% for Brown Swiss– 6.7% +- 1.4% for Jerseys6.7% +- 1.4% for Jerseys

EFI in selection and mating programs


Wright

2005

Inbreeding of US DaughtersInbreeding of US Daughters(Proven Holstein bulls born since 1994)(Proven Holstein bulls born since 1994)

Bull Origin BullsPedigree

Compl. Dtr F EFI

USA 8941 99.9 4.2 5.1

Canada 355 99.5 4.3 5.0

Netherlands 39 99.9 4.3 4.8

France 25 99.4 4.5 4.7

Great Britain 8 99.5 4.5 5.1

Italy 6 98.0 4.7 5.1

Denmark 6 100.0 4.4 5.6


Wright

2005

Inbreeding MathInbreeding Math

Subtract regression (b) from y• YD0 = y - m - p - c - b (Fcow)

• DYD0 = Σ w (YD0 - mate PTA0) / Σ w

Add expected future inbreeding (EFI)• PTAEFI = PTA0 + b (EFI - EFIbase)

• PAEFI = PA0 + b (EFI - EFIbase)

• DYDEFI = DYD0 + b (EFI - EFIbase)

Account for F in w and in reliability?


Wright

2005

Interactions for Famous Old BullsInteractions for Famous Old Bulls(Milk pounds, from VanRaden et al 1992 JDS 75:2892)(Milk pounds, from VanRaden et al 1992 JDS 75:2892)

BullMars Tony

Bell Elevation AstronautSire

effect

Mars Tony -1430 +79 -871 +26 +884

Bell +79 -1371 +97 -88 +1714

Elevation -871 +97 -1560 +174 +344

Astronaut +26 -88 +174 -1250 -400

MGS effect +442 +857 +172 -200


Wright

2005

Number of Cows per InteractionNumber of Cows per Interaction(from VanRaden et al 1992 JDS 75:2892)(from VanRaden et al 1992 JDS 75:2892)

BullMars Tony

Bell Elevation Astronaut

Mars Tony 18 811 167 634

Bell 13 1997 351

Elevation 34 4215

Astronaut (half stored) 35


Wright

2005

Herd Herd × S× Sire Var: Daughters / Herd ire Var: Daughters / Herd

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

Actual Daughters

Effe

ctiv

e Da

ught

ers

5% H×S

7% H×S

10% H×S


Wright

2005

Maximum Daughters / HerdMaximum Daughters / Herd

Trait h2 c2 p2 Maximum

Yield 30 10 15 9(new) 30 7 18 12

DPR 4 1 8 98(new) 4 4 5 25

PL 8 5 0 19

SCS 12 5 18 19

h2 = heritability, c2 = herd by sire interaction, p2 = permanent environment variance


Wright

2005

Age at First Calf: Best Bulls Age at First Calf: Best Bulls (99% R)(99% R)

BullAge at 1st calf (days)

Avg. Age (mo) DPR

Merv - 9 26 +0.8

Rudolph - 9 26 +2.1

Indy - 8 26 +0.1

Duster - 7 26 +2.2

Sand - 7 26 - 0.5

Spencer - 7 27 0.0

Top Gun - 7 27 +1.7


Wright

2005

Age at First Calf: Worst Bulls Age at First Calf: Worst Bulls (99% R)(99% R)

BullAge at 1st calf (days)

Avg. Age (mo) DPR

Raider + 9 27 +2.0

Marksman + 8 27 - 1.3

Skybuck + 8 27 +1.2

Activate + 7 27 - 2.7

Man + 7 27 - 2.0

Sandwater + 7 27 +1.6

Choice + 7 27 - 1.1


Wright

2005

Longest Gestation LengthLongest Gestation Length(as trait of daughters, 99% REL bulls)(as trait of daughters, 99% REL bulls)

BullGestation

LengthSire C. Ease

Daughter C. Ease

Stylist 2.1 10 13

Dixie 1.9 8 9

Manager 1.8 8 11

Benefit 1.8 8 11

Mark Star 1.7 9 8

Caveman 1.7 9 10

Mandel 1.7 9 9


Wright

2005

Shortest Gestation LengthShortest Gestation Length(as trait of daughters, 99% REL bulls)(as trait of daughters, 99% REL bulls)

BullGestation

LengthSire

C. EaseDaughter C. Ease

Echo - 2.4 5 8

Script - 2.3 7 7

Goliath - 2.0 7 10

Magician - 2.0 7 11

Elite - 2.0 6 5

Wine - 1.9 5 9

Billy - 1.9 5 9


Wright

2005

High Maturity PTA Bulls High Maturity PTA Bulls (500 dtrs by 1999 and 5000 dtrs by 2005)(500 dtrs by 1999 and 5000 dtrs by 2005)

BullMilk Maturity PTA 1,2,3 – 1

PTA Milk

PTA PL

Langs +619 +462 1.1

Cash +510 +16 2.8

Whamo +395 -492 2.1

Black Jack +372 -935 .6

Labelle +372 +611 .8

Horton +361 -492 -.9

Mich +358 -605 .1


Wright

2005

Low Maturity PTA Bulls Low Maturity PTA Bulls (500 dtrs by 1999 and 5000 dtrs by 2005)(500 dtrs by 1999 and 5000 dtrs by 2005)

BullMilk Maturity PTA 1,2,3 – 1

PTA Milk

PTA PL

Mason -453 +27 -1.1

Bellwood -436 +1085 -.8

Mascot -397 -179 -3.3

Mister Bova -369 -32 +.6

Jackpot -339 -529 -.9

Nick -335 -586 -.1

Emory -290 +497 +.1


Wright

2005

PTA Persistency of PTA Persistency of Top Net Merit Bulls Top Net Merit Bulls (99% REL)(99% REL)

BullProtein

Persistency NM$ DPR

R Boone - .17 522 - 0.5

JC Fagan +.14 426 +2.9

BW Marshall - .23 425 - 2.0

Orion - .18 404 +0.1

Addison - .10 403 - 2.1

Mtoto - .13 397 +0.9

Manfred +.14 375 +2.0


Wright

2005

Cow with Average PersistencyCow with Average Persistency

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300

Days in Milk

Po

un

ds

Best Prediction

Standard Curve

Test Days


Wright

2005

Highest Cow PersistencyHighest Cow Persistency

0

50

100

150

200

250

0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300Days in Milk

Po

un

ds

Best Prediction

Standard Curve

Test Days


Wright

2005

Lowest Cow PersistencyLowest Cow Persistency

0

50

100

150

200

250

0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300

Days in Milk

Po

un

ds

Best Prediction

Standard Curve

Test Days


Wright

2005

Milking Speed SurveyMilking Speed Survey

Current US AI evaluations• Select Sires: 1-9 scale• Genex CRI: 1-9 scale• Accelerated Genetics: 1-5 scale• Alta Genetics: actual time, 4.5 +- .2

Milking speed in foreign indexes • DNK 6%, AUS 3%, CAN <1%


Wright

2005

Current PL CreditsCurrent PL Credits

1 2 3

20 3 4 51

Y E A R S

20

140

40

60

80

100

120

0

P e

r c

e n

t

C

r e

d i

t


Wright

2005

Possible PL CreditsPossible PL Credits

1 2 3

20 3 4 51

Y E A R S

20

140

40

60

80

100

120

0

P e

r c

e n

t

C

r e

d i

t


Wright

2005

Proposed PL CreditsProposed PL Credits

Month of Lactation

Lac 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15

1 .80 .88 .89 .85 .80 .74 .68 .62

2 1.15 1.13 1.06 .96 .84 .73 .67 .60

3+ 1.22 1.20 1.13 1.02 .89 .76 .69 .62


Wright

2005

Productive Life ResearchProductive Life Research

Upper limits on lactation length and age can be removed

New projection factors derived 36 month PL vs final PL

• Genetic correlation = .87• Genetic corr with protein .14 vs .00

– Has declined rapidly in recent yearsHas declined rapidly in recent years– Phenotypic correlations are fairly stablePhenotypic correlations are fairly stable– Adjustment for yield may be neededAdjustment for yield may be needed

2005 paul vanraden, john cole, duane norman, mel tooker, and jan wright animal improvement programs...

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