1875 FINANCE

THE FINANCIAL PLACE TO BE

1875 CIO OFFICE – ADVISORY TEAM

Morning Briefing – Friday, May 04, 2018

“That 200 day moving average”

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CARTOON OF THE DAY

Source: Hedgeye.com

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RELEVANT NEWS

Economy & FX

Companies

• Jobs report will be a big deal, but China could be what moves stocks Friday

• VIX Is Said to Face Probes With Unusual Auctions at Issue

• DAX Dancing Around Resistance Line Might Need a Pause First

• Mnuchin Says U.S., China in ‘Very Good Conversation’ on Trade

• Brexit Transition Must Be Extended, U.K. Officials Said to Think

• Non-manufacturing index slows, but keeps 99-month growth streak alive

• US trade deficit drops for the first time in 7 months as exports hit a record high

Markets

Interesting articles (click on link)

• Airbnb cost New York City renters $616 million in 2016, city says

• Longtime bull Jeremy Siegel: Market is facing two big uncertainties this year

• Payrolls Preview: After March Miss, "Don't Expect Much Of A Weather Bounce"

• Buffett Buys a Further 75 Million Apple Shares, CNBC Reports

• HSBC Hammered as Investors Ignore Buyback to Focus on Expenses

• BNP Paribas Books Lower Trading Revenue on Fixed-Income Slump

• SWISS RE 1Q NET INCOME $457M, EST. $438.8M

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Tradseni index : New 52-week highs divided by the sum of the new highs plus the new lows >> red zone = overbought conditions

PUT/CALL ratio :. Ratio between the total volume of equity put options over call options, as reported at the end of the day >> red zone = oversold conditions

AAII US Bull Sentiment : The index reflect the sentiment of individual investors towards the stock market over the next 6 months >> red zone = overbought conditions

US STOCK MARKET SENTIMENT INDICATORS

Source: cnn.com, 1875 FINANCE, Bloobmerg

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CHART OF THE DAY - INTERNAL RESEARCH

Source: 1875 CIO OFFICE, Bloomberg

The S&P500 has been flirting with its 200 day moving average. Decisive day/week ?

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COMPANIES RESULTS / UPGRADES & DOWNGRADES

Analysts recommendations

Major companies results

Europe EPS [e] US EPS [e] Switzerland EPS [e]

Societe Generale SA 1.02 Newell Brands Inc 1.28 Swiss Re AG 2.63

BNP Paribas SA 1.26 IDEXX Laboratories Inc 0.26

Bayerische Motoren Werke AG 0.21 Cboe Global Markets Inc 0.92

BASF SE 1.97 Celgene Corp 1.96

source : 1875 CIO OFFICE, Bloomberg

Upward Recommendations Downward Recommendations

Geberit: Deutsche Bank raises target to 450 (449) CHF Caterpillar (CAT) downgraded to neutral at BofAML; PT $156

3M Co (MMM) upgraded to outperform at RBC; PT $238 Ahold Delhaize Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; Price Target 20 Euros

Deere (DE) upgraded to buy at BofAML; PT $159

source : 1875 CIO OFFICE, Bloomberg

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ECONOMIC DATA OF THE DAY

Source: 1875 CIO OFFICE, Bloomberg

Date & Time Country / Zone Event Period Survey Prior Relevance

8:45 FR Trade Balance Mar -5 Bn -5.19 Bn Medium

9:45 IT Markit/ADACI Italy Services PMI Apr 53.00 52.60 High

9:45 IT Markit/ADACI Italy Composite PMI Apr 53.70 53.50 High

9:50 FR Markit France Services PMI Apr 57.40 57.40 High

9:50 FR Markit France Composite PMI Apr 56.90 56.90 High

9:55 GE Markit Germany Services PMI Apr 54.10 54.10 High

9:55 GE Markit/BME Germany Composite PMI Apr 55.30 55.30 High

10:00 EC Markit Eurozone Services PMI Apr 55.00 55.00 High

10:00 EC Markit Eurozone Composite PMI Apr 55.20 55.20 High

11:00 EC Retail Sales MoM Mar 0.50% 0.10% Medium

11:00 EC Retail Sales YoY Mar 1.90% 1.80% Medium

14:30 US Change in Nonfarm Payrolls Apr 195'000 103'000 High

14:30 US Unemployment Rate Apr 4.00% 4.10% High

14:30 US Average Hourly Earnings MoM Apr 0.20% 0.30% High

14:30 US Average Hourly Earnings YoY Apr 2.70% 2.70% High

14:30 US Labor Force Participation Rate Apr 62.90% 62.90% Medium

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DAILY MARKET DATA

Source: 1875 CIO OFFICE, Bloomberg

Equity indices Price 1 Day YTD Price 1 Day YTD Countries 2Y Yield 5Y Yield 10Y Yield

US - DOW JONES 23'930 0.02% -3.19% Consumer Discretionary237.20 0.20% 2.99% USA 2.48% 2.78% 2.95%

US - S&P500 2'630 -0.23% -1.64% Consumer Staples 211.60 -2.37% -8.46% Eurozone -0.59% -0.09% 0.53%

US - NASDAQ 7'088 -0.18% 2.68% Energy 230.95 2.18% 1.76% Switzerland -0.79% -0.49% 0.02%

CANADA - TSX 15'621 -0.04% -3.63% Financials 122.39 0.96% -1.71% UK 0.75% 1.08% 1.39%

MEXICO - IPC 47'094 -1.50% -4.58% Healthcare 219.40 -0.55% -1.07% Sweden -0.55% 0.04% 0.66%

Industrials 245.96 1.06% -1.10% Canada 1.91% 2.14% 2.32%

Technology 222.43 -1.21% 5.08% Japan -0.14% -0.11% 0.04%

Equity indices Price 1 Day YTD Materials 252.90 1.55% -1.85% Australia 2.03% 2.42% 2.78%

EUROPE - EURO STOXX 50 3'529 -0.69% 0.72% Telecom Services 68.03 -0.17% -6.27% China 3.20% 3.09% 3.64%

UK - FTSE 100 7'503 -0.54% -2.41% Utilities 128.16 0.03% -2.08% Turkish 14.48% 13.95% 13.01%

GERMANY - DAX 12'690 -0.88% -1.76%

FRANCE - CAC 40 5'502 -0.50% 3.56%

SWITZERLAND - SMI 8'842 -0.61% -5.75% Price 1 Day YTD Price 1 Day YTD

SPAIN - IBEX 10'039 -0.50% -0.05% VIX S&P 500 15.90 -0.44% 44.02% GLOBAL COMMODITY

ITALY - FTSE MIB 24'064 -0.83% 10.12% VXN Nasdaq 19.65 -0.56% 25.32% CRB Index 202.1028 0.25% 4.25%

SWEDEN - OMX 1'567 -1.51% -0.63% VSTOXX Stoxx600 14.46 6.87% 7.00% ENERGY

V3VI SMI 12.85 0.54% 8.99% Crude Oil (WTI) USA 68.42 -0.01% 13.92%

Brent oil UK 73.64 0.03% 12.46%

Equity indices Price 1 Day YTD Natural Gas 2.731 0.18% -1.51%

JAPAN - NIKKEI 225 22'473 -0.16% -1.28% Price 1 Day YTD BASE METALS

CHINA - SHANGHAI COMP 3'096 -0.16% -6.39% EUR / USD 1.1985 -0.03% -0.17% Aluminium 2269 -2.26% 0.04%

HONG KONG - HIS 30'157 -0.51% 0.80% EUR / CHF 1.19627 -0.01% 2.22% Copper 6827 0.10% -5.80%

SINGAPORE - STI 3'553 -0.62% 4.42% EUR / GBP 0.88265 -0.06% -0.61% Zinc 3007 -1.31% -9.40%

EUR / SEK 10.5551 -0.08% 7.33% Cobalt 88500 -1.67% 17.68%

EUR / TRY 5.0742 0.38% 11.60% Lithium 288.83 N/A 1.34%

Equity indices Price 1 Day YTD USD / CHF 0.9981 0.06% 2.44% PRECIOUS METALS

BRAZIL - IBOVESPA 83'288 -1.49% 9.01% USD / SEK 8.8065 -0.05% 7.62% Gold 1313.31 0.10% 0.81%

RUSSIA - RTS 1'128 -0.73% -2.27% USD / JPY 109.07 -0.11% -3.21% Silver 16.4579 0.16% -2.83%

INDIA - BSE SENSEX 34'949 -0.44% 2.62% USD / TRY 4.2323 0.44% 11.43% Palladium 960.34 0.20% -9.15%

TURKEY - BIST 100 102'909 -1.73% -10.77% GBP / USD 1.358 0.04% 0.50% Platinum 902.53 -0.06% -2.77%

Currencies

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COMMODITIES FUTURES

Source: 1875 CIO OFFICE, Bloomberg

ALUMINIUM -2.16 SUGAR -22.89

NICKEL -1.50 LIVE CATTLE -13.39

ZINC -1.45 ZINC -10.26

COTTON -0.66 SOYBEAN OIL -7.56

SUGAR -0.51 COPPER -6.68

SOYBEAN -0.41 LEAN HOGS -6.55

SOYBEAN MEAL -0.35 SILVER -4.32

WTI CRUDE OIL -0.01 COFFEE -3.17

BRENT CRUDE OIL 0.03 NAT GAS -1.46

GOLD 0.09 ALUMINIUM -0.13

CORN 0.13 GOLD 0.35

GASOLINE 0.13 COTTON 7.40

NAT GAS 0.14 NICKEL 7.94

LEAN HOGS 0.26 SOYBEAN 9.17

SILVER 0.26 BRENT CRUDE OIL 10.12

COFFEE 0.49 WTI CRUDE OIL 13.24

COPPER 0.69 CORN 14.04

SOYBEAN OIL 0.69 GASOLINE 16.17

LIVE CATTLE 1.60 WHEAT 26.58

WHEAT 2.81 SOYBEAN MEAL 27.00

1D CHANGE (%) YTD CHANGE (%)

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SWISS STOCKS RADAR

Source: 1875 CIO OFFICE, Bloomberg

Universe: top 100 largest Swiss Companies

Rank Name YTD Rank Name YTD Rank Name Expensive Rank Name Cheap

1 VP BANK AG 27% 1 ARYZTA AG -44% 1 KUDELSKI SA-BR 79.83 1 SWISS RE AG 10.43

2 VIFOR PHARMA AG 26% 2 MEYER BURGER TEC -28% 2 VIFOR PHARMA AG 46.90 2 SWISS LIFE H AG 11.22

3 LOGITECH INTER-R 20% 3 BURKHALTER HLDG -27% 3 TEMENOS GROU-REG 43.61 3 ADECCO GROUP AG 11.31

4 KARDEX AG-REG 19% 4 KUDELSKI SA-BR -23% 4 YPSOMED HOLD-REG 37.48 4 UBS GROUP AG 11.66

5 SWATCH GROUP-BR 19% 5 EFG INTERNAT AG -22% 5 LINDT&SPRUENGLI 37.47 5 LEONTEQ AG 11.74

6 IMPLENIA AG-REG 19% 6 GURIT HOLDING-BR -19% 6 STRAUMANN HLDG-R 37.36 6 HELVETIA HOL-REG 11.78

7 SWATCH GROUP/THE 18% 7 BOBST GROUP -REG -18% 7 LEM HOLDING-REG 36.03 7 EFG INTERNAT AG 12.48

8 EMMI AG-REG 17% 8 VZ HOLDING AG -16% 8 TECAN GROUP AG-R 34.18 8 AUTONEUM HOLDING 12.67

9 BKW AG 13% 9 PANALPINA WE-REG -16% 9 BURCKHARDT COMPR 32.20 9 BALOISE HOL-REG 12.68

10 HUBER + SUHN-REG 12% 10 RIETER HLDG-REG -16% 10 PANALPINA WE-REG 31.44 10 ZURICH INSURANCE 12.68

Rank Name RSI Rank Name RSI Rank Name Upside Rank Name Upside

1 LINDT&SPRUENGLI 79.33 1 BURKHALTER HLDG 33.03 1 NEWRON PHARMACEU 145% 1 LEM HOLDING-REG -26.11%

2 LOGITECH INTER-R 74.64 2 VALIANT HLDG AG 35.11 2 MEYER BURGER TEC 64% 2 LINDT&SPRUENGLI -15.32%

3 VP BANK AG 73.83 3 BUCHER INDUS-REG 36.57 3 AMS AG 43% 3 KARDEX AG-REG -12.46%

4 EMMI AG-REG 71.68 4 AMS AG 37.00 4 LEONTEQ AG 36% 4 BARRY CALLEB-REG -9.49%

5 NEWRON PHARMACEU 71.62 5 VAT GROUP AG 38.65 5 KUDELSKI SA-BR 31% 5 BANQUE CANTO-REG -9.31%

6 SWISS PRIME -REG 70.93 6 KUDELSKI SA-BR 39.14 6 RIETER HLDG-REG 29% 6 TEMENOS GROU-REG -8.62%

7 TEMENOS GROU-REG 70.83 7 UBS GROUP AG 40.15 7 FORBO HOLDIN-REG 24% 7 VIFOR PHARMA AG -7.91%

8 SONOVA HOLDING A 70.52 8 ADECCO GROUP AG 40.17 8 COMET HOLDING-R 23% 8 CHOCOLADEFABR-PC -6.55%

9 SWATCH GROUP-BR 69.33 9 SWISS RE AG 41.81 9 AUTONEUM HOLDING 23% 9 ST GALLER KA-REG -6.02%

10 VONTOBEL HLDG-R 68.96 10 MEYER BURGER TEC 41.83 10 EFG INTERNAT AG 23% 10 SWATCH GROUP-BR -5.17%

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EUROPEAN STOCKS RADAR

Source: 1875 CIO OFFICE, Bloomberg

Universe: Euro Stoxx 50 index

Rank Name YTD Rank Name YTD Rank Name Expensive Rank Name Cheap

1 NOKIA OYJ 25% 1 DEUTSCHE BANK-RG -29% 1 ESSILOR INTL 28.59 1 VOLKSWAGEN-PREF 6.56

2 LVMH MOET HENNE 19% 2 ANHEUSER-BUSCH I -13% 2 L'OREAL 28.24 2 DAIMLER AG 7.02

3 AIRBUS SE 18% 3 ING GROEP NV -10% 3 ASML HOLDING NV 27.93 3 BAYER MOTOREN WK 8.24

4 ENI SPA 17% 4 INDITEX -10% 4 LVMH MOET HENNE 25.61 4 AXA 8.60

5 ADIDAS AG 16% 5 AXA -9% 5 VIVENDI 24.83 5 BBVA 9.14

6 SAFRAN SA 14% 6 SANOFI -9% 6 INDITEX 23.08 6 SOC GENERALE SA 9.70

7 INTESA SANPAOLO 14% 7 DEUTSCHE POST-RG -8% 7 SAFRAN SA 21.95 7 BNP PARIBAS 10.04

8 KONINKLIJKE PHIL 14% 8 SIEMENS AG-REG -7% 8 SAP SE 21.56 8 ING GROEP NV 10.35

9 TOTAL SA 12% 9 BASF SE -6% 9 NOKIA OYJ 20.24 9 BANCO SANTANDER 10.76

10 ASML HOLDING NV 10% 10 DAIMLER AG -6% 10 UNILEVER NV-CVA 19.62 10 TELEFONICA 11.38

Rank Name RSI Rank Name RSI Rank Name Upside Rank Name Upside

1 SAFRAN SA 79.13 1 ANHEUSER-BUSCH I 30.46 1 ANHEUSER-BUSCH I 29% 1 SAFRAN SA -3.17%

2 ENGIE 76.65 2 ADIDAS AG 38.84 2 SAINT GOBAIN 21% 2 L'OREAL -1.76%

3 ORANGE 74.91 3 DEUTSCHE BANK-RG 39.61 3 UNIBAIL-RODAMCO 21% 3 LVMH MOET HENNE -0.89%

4 KONINKLIJKE PHIL 74.49 4 AXA 39.98 4 ING GROEP NV 20% 4 KONINKLIJKE PHIL 0.95%

5 IBERDROLA SA 74.48 5 ING GROEP NV 42.17 5 SIEMENS AG-REG 20% 5 AIR LIQUIDE SA 2.23%

6 LVMH MOET HENNE 73.22 6 ASML HOLDING NV 45.45 6 SANOFI 20% 6 VIVENDI 2.75%

7 ENEL SPA 71.66 7 BANCO SANTANDER 45.48 7 AXA 20% 7 ENI SPA 4.51%

8 ENI SPA 71.08 8 SANOFI 46.37 8 FRESENIUS SE & C 19% 8 KONINKLIJKE AHOL 5.09%

9 SAP SE 70.92 9 SOC GENERALE SA 47.82 9 TELEFONICA 18% 9 BAYER MOTOREN WK 5.09%

10 TOTAL SA 69.17 10 DEUTSCHE POST-RG 48.55 10 BAYER AG-REG 18% 10 ESSILOR INTL 5.74%

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