1875 FINANCE

THE FINANCIAL PLACE TO BE

1875 CIO OFFICE – ADVISORY TEAM

Morning Briefing – Thursday, July 19, 2018

“A busy earnings day”

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DAILY MARKET DATA

Source: 1875 CIO OFFICE, Bloomberg 19.07.2018 08:06

Equity indices Price 1 Day YTD Price 1 Day YTD Countries 2Y Yield 5Y Yield 10Y Yield

US - DOW JONES 25'199 0.32% 1.94% Consumer Discretionary248.76 0.20% 2.99% USA 2.62% 2.78% 2.88%

US - S&P500 2'816 0.22% 5.31% Consumer Staples 224.28 -2.37% -8.46% Eurozone -0.64% -0.30% 0.35%

US - NASDAQ 7'854 -0.01% 13.78% Energy 237.36 2.18% 1.76% Switzerland -0.82% -0.53% -0.12%

CANADA - TSX 16'477 -0.25% 1.66% Financials 119.69 0.96% -1.71% UK 0.73% 0.98% 1.22%

MEXICO - IPC 49'003 0.61% -0.71% Healthcare 235.46 -0.55% -1.07% Sweden -0.59% -0.13% 0.44%

Industrials 250.62 1.06% -1.10% Canada 1.95% 2.05% 2.14%

Technology 243.91 -1.21% 5.08% Japan -0.14% -0.11% 0.03%

Equity indices Price 1 Day YTD Materials 254.76 1.55% -1.85% Australia 2.10% 2.30% 2.66%

EUROPE - EURO STOXX 50 3'485 0.80% -0.54% Telecom Services 67.35 -0.17% -6.27% China 3.01% 3.25% 3.43%

UK - FTSE 100 7'676 0.65% -0.15% Utilities 130.19 0.03% -2.08% Turkish 19.45% 18.24% 16.99%

GERMANY - DAX 12'766 0.82% -1.17%

FRANCE - CAC 40 5'447 0.46% 2.54%

SWITZERLAND - SMI 8'938 1.29% -4.73% Price 1 Day YTD Price 1 Day YTD

SPAIN - IBEX 9'753 0.35% -2.89% VIX S&P 500 12.10 0.33% 9.60% GLOBAL COMMODITY

ITALY - FTSE MIB 21'972 -0.03% 0.54% VXN Nasdaq 16.53 -1.08% 5.42% CRB Index 191.47 0.20% -1.23%

SWEDEN - OMX 1'570 0.89% -0.41% VSTOXX Stoxx600 11.96 -4.73% -11.47% ENERGY

V3VI SMI 11.93 -2.77% 1.19% Crude Oil (WTI) USA 68.69 -0.10% 15.60%

Brent oil UK 72.68 -0.30% 12.23%

Equity indices Price 1 Day YTD Natural Gas 2.721 0.00% -3.06%

JAPAN - NIKKEI 225 22'765 -0.13% 0.00% Price 1 Day YTD BASE METALS

CHINA - SHANGHAI COMP 2'770 -0.61% -16.23% EUR / USD 1.1630 -0.08% -3.12% Aluminium 2027 -0.25% -10.63%

HONG KONG - HIS 28'084 -0.12% -6.13% EUR / CHF 1.1629 0.01% -0.63% Copper 6150 -0.03% -15.14%

SINGAPORE - STI 3'272 0.98% -3.84% EUR / GBP 0.8911 0.06% 0.33% Zinc 2600 3.50% -21.66%

EUR / SEK 10.3208 0.03% 4.95% Cobalt 69750 0.00% -7.25%

EUR / TRY 5.6024 0.35% 23.22% Lithium 290.06 N/A 1.77%

Equity indices Price 1 Day YTD USD / CHF 0.9999 0.09% 2.63% PRECIOUS METALS

BRAZIL - IBOVESPA 77'363 -0.98% 1.26% USD / SEK 8.8743 0.10% 8.44% Gold 1223.02 -0.37% -6.12%

RUSSIA - RTS 1'145 -1.75% -0.84% USD / JPY 112.8600 0.00% 0.15% Silver 15.43 -0.83% -8.91%

INDIA - BSE SENSEX 36'421 0.13% 6.94% USD / TRY 4.8113 0.33% 26.67% Palladium 960.34 -0.05% -14.58%

TURKEY - BIST 100 92'322 0.76% -19.95% GBP / USD 1.3052 -0.13% -3.41% Platinum 811.67 -0.83% -12.56%

Currencies

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CARTOON OF THE DAY

Source: Hedgeye.com

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RELEVANT NEWS

Economy & FX

Companies

• U.S. FANG Stocks’ Troubles Bode Well for European Catch-Up Race

• Europe Shares Rise for Second Day as Tech Stocks Jump on Results

• Asian Stocks Mixed as China Falls; Aussie Gains

Markets

Interesting articles

• New York Is Said to Open Tax Inquiry Into Trump Foundation link

• Lazard Sifts Through Emerging Markets for Ideas After Slump link

• Yield-Curve Inversion Imminent for Some, Long Way Off for Others link

• Trump’s Mixed Messages on Russia Renew Doubts on What He Thinks link

• MGM Resorts Suffers Backlash After Suing Shooting Victims

• Pizza Party? Domino’s Options Show Earnings May Spark New Highs

• Buffett Gets Richer Even After Donating $3.4 Billion to Charity

• ABB Second Quarter Net Income Beats Highest Estimate

• Fed Says Economic Growth Holding Up as Trade Concerns Spread

• Currencies Drop as PBOC Weakens Yuan Past Key Level

• Trump’s Mixed Messages on Russia Renew Doubts on What He Thinks

19.07.2018 08:26

Name Last Day chg %

Dow Jones fut 25162.00 0.00

S&P500 fut 2814.00 -0.07

Nasdaq fut 7401 -0.04

Eurostoxx 50 fut 3473 -0.14

Dax fut 12740.00 -0.07

CAC40 fut 5438 -0.17

SMI fut 8907 -0.13

Nikkei fut 22760 -0.18

Hang Seng fut 28062 -0.06

WTI Oil fut 68.69 -0.10

Gold 1222.80 -0.39

EUR/USD 1.1628 -0.09

GBP/USD 1.3050 -0.15

EUR/CHF 1.1629 0.00

USD/CHF 1.0000 0.10

US 10Y Yield 2.88 0.01

CHF 10Y Yield -0.05 -0.01

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CHART OF THE DAY - EXTERNAL RESEARCH

Source: 1875 CIO OFFICE, Bloomberg

“Aggressive Opportunity” : Raymond James says it’s worth taking a shot at emerging-market stocks

SPI INDEX

SMI INDEX

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Tradseni index : New 52-week highs divided by the sum of the new highs plus the new lows red zone = overbought conditions

PUT/CALL ratio :. Ratio between the total volume of equity put options over call options, as reported at the end of the day red zone = oversold conditions

AAII US Bull Sentiment : The index reflect the sentiment of individual investors towards the stock market over the next 6 months red zone = overbought conditions

US STOCK MARKET SENTIMENT INDICATORS

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COMPANIES RESULTS / UPGRADES & DOWNGRADES

Analysts recommendations

Major companies results

Source: 1875 CIO OFFICE, Bloomberg

Source: 1875 CIO OFFICE, Bloomberg

Europe EPS [e] US (I) EPS [e] US (II) EPS [e]

SAP SE 0.995 BB&T Corp 1.009 Alliance Data Systems Corp 4.677

Givaudan SA 41.56 Travelers Cos Inc/The 2.427 Union Pacific Corp 1.941

ABB Ltd 0.339 Nucor Corp 2.095 PPG Industries Inc 1.88

Unilever NV 1.16 Danaher Corp 1.089 E*TRADE Financial Corp 0.884

Genuine Parts Co 1.575 Intuitive Surgical Inc 2.493

Fifth Third Bancorp 0.571 Skyworks Solutions Inc 1.6

KeyCorp 0.416 People's United Financial Inc 0.315

Snap-on Inc 2.946 Cintas Corp 1.667

Bank of New York Mellon Corp/T 1.022 Capital One Financial Corp 2.621

Dover Corp 1.212 Microsoft Corp 1.076

Philip Morris International In 1.23

Upward Recommendations Downward Recommendations

Ericsson Upgraded to Hold at SEB Equities; PT 66 Kronor Temenos Downgraded to Neutral at MainFirst; PT 155 Francs

Novartis Upgraded to Equal-weight at Barclays; PT 80 Francs Twitter Downgraded to Neutral at Macquarie; PT $42

Goldman Sachs Upgraded to Hold at SocGen; PT $240 First Horizon Downgraded to Neutral at UBS; PT Set to $19

8

ECONOMIC DATA OF THE DAY

Source: 1875 CIO OFFICE, Bloomberg

Time Country / Zone Event Period Survey Prior Relevance

01:50 JN Trade Balance Jun 531'200'000'000 -578'300'000'000 Medium

01:50 JN Trade Balance Adjusted Jun 155'000'000'000 -296'800'000'000 Medium

01:50 JN Exports YoY Jun 7.00% 8.10% Medium

01:50 JN Imports YoY Jun 5.30% 14.00% Medium

08:00 SZ Exports Real MoM Jun -- 0.00% Medium

08:00 SZ Imports Real MoM Jun -- 3.10% Medium

10:30 UK Retail Sales Ex Auto Fuel MoM Jun 0.30% 1.30% High

10:30 UK Retail Sales Ex Auto Fuel YoY Jun 3.70% 4.40% Medium

10:30 UK Retail Sales Inc Auto Fuel MoM Jun 0.30% 1.30% High

10:30 UK Retail Sales Inc Auto Fuel YoY Jun 3.80% 3.90% High

14:30 US Initial Jobless Claims Jul 14 -- 214'000 High

14:30 US Continuing Claims Jul 7 -- 1'739'000 Medium

14:30 US Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Jul 20.00 19.90 High

15:00 RU Gold and Forex Reserve Jul 13 -- 459'600'000'000 High

16:00 US Leading Index Jun 0.50% 0.20% High

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COMMODITIES FUTURES

Source: 1875 CIO OFFICE, Bloomberg 19.07.2018 08:06

COFFEE -1.04 SUGAR -26.91

LEAN HOGS -1.03 ZINC -21.68

COPPER -0.69 COPPER -17.19

SUGAR -0.45 COFFEE -17.12

GOLD -0.37 SOYBEAN OIL -15.45

SOYBEAN OIL -0.36 SOYBEAN -11.48

SILVER -0.28 LIVE CATTLE -11.42

BRENT CRUDE OIL -0.25 SILVER -9.58

GASOLINE -0.16 ALUMINIUM -7.85

WTI CRUDE OIL -0.06 GOLD -6.57

WHEAT -0.05 LEAN HOGS -6.37

COTTON -0.02 NAT GAS -3.55

SOYBEAN 0.03 CORN -0.93

NAT GAS 0.04 SOYBEAN MEAL 5.12

CORN 0.07 NICKEL 6.58

SOYBEAN MEAL 0.12 BRENT CRUDE OIL 8.75

NICKEL 0.93 COTTON 12.95

ALUMINIUM 1.92 GASOLINE 13.45

LIVE CATTLE 2.37 WTI CRUDE OIL 13.74

ZINC 3.65 WHEAT 15.75

1D CHANGE (%) YTD CHANGE (%)

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SWISS STOCKS RADAR

Source: 1875 CIO OFFICE, Bloomberg

Universe: Top 100 largest Swiss Companies

Rank Name YTD Rank Name YTD Rank Name Expensive Rank Name Cheap

1 VP BANK AG 48% 1 ARYZTA AG -62% 1 VIFOR PHARMA AG 54.8 1 SWISS RE AG 10.3

2 VIFOR PHARMA AG 44% 2 MEYER BURGER TEC -48% 2 TEMENOS GROU-REG 53.7 2 ADECCO GROUP AG 10.6

3 LOGITECH INTER-R 39% 3 COMET HOLDING-R -41% 3 YPSOMED HOLD-REG 47.9 3 GAM HOLDING AG 10.7

4 SIEGFRIED HO-REG 30% 4 BURKHALTER HLDG -32% 4 KUDELSKI SA-BR 47.6 4 SWISS LIFE H AG 11.2

5 TEMENOS GROU-REG 27% 5 GAM HOLDING AG -25% 5 LINDT&SPRUENGLI 41.7 5 UBS GROUP AG 11.2

6 KARDEX AG-REG 25% 6 BELL FOOD GROUP -24% 6 STRAUMANN HLDG-R 41.4 6 AUTONEUM HOLDING 11.4

7 TECAN GROUP AG-R 23% 7 EFG INTERNAT AG -24% 7 TECAN GROUP AG-R 38.6 7 HELVETIA HOL-REG 11.5

8 EMMI AG-REG 23% 8 RIETER HLDG-REG -22% 8 BURCKHARDT COMPR 37.6 8 BELL FOOD GROUP 11.6

9 SONOVA HOLDING A 20% 9 KUDELSKI SA-BR -22% 9 CHOCOLADEFABR-PC 35.1 9 SCHMOLZ+BICK-REG 12.3

10 HUBER + SUHN-REG 20% 10 GURIT HOLDING-BR -22% 10 PANALPINA WE-REG 33.1 10 ZURICH INSURANCE 12.3

Rank Name RSI Rank Name RSI Rank Name Upside Rank Name Upside

1 VIFOR PHARMA AG 74 1 GAM HOLDING AG 18 1 NEWRON PHARMACEU 128% 1 TEMENOS GROU-REG -20%

2 ROCHE HLDG-GENUS 74 2 BELL FOOD GROUP 20 2 MEYER BURGER TEC 98% 2 LINDT&SPRUENGLI -16%

3 BOSSARD HO-REG A 71 3 VALIANT HLDG AG 33 3 AMS AG 62% 3 VIFOR PHARMA AG -13%

4 LONZA GROUP -REG 70 4 COMET HOLDING-R 35 4 GAM HOLDING AG 36% 4 CHOCOLADEFABR-PC -12%

5 GIVAUDAN-REG 70 5 HOCHDORF HOLDING 36 5 COMET HOLDING-R 33% 5 TECAN GROUP AG-R -10%

6 TECAN GROUP AG-R 69 6 SGS SA-REG 38 6 RIETER HLDG-REG 30% 6 SIEGFRIED HO-REG -9%

7 SCHINDLER HO-REG 69 7 BARRY CALLEB-REG 38 7 BUCHER INDUS-REG 28% 7 YPSOMED HOLD-REG -9%

8 NOVARTIS AG-REG 68 8 VETROPACK HOL-BR 39 8 EFG INTERNAT AG 28% 8 GIVAUDAN-REG -7%

9 LEONTEQ AG 67 9 MEYER BURGER TEC 40 9 SCHMOLZ+BICK-REG 26% 9 STRAUMANN HLDG-R -7%

10 SIEGFRIED HO-REG 67 10 LAFARGEHOLCIM-RE 40 10 BKW AG 26% 10 SONOVA HOLDING A -5%

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EUROPEAN STOCKS RADAR

Source: 1875 CIO OFFICE, Bloomberg

Universe: Euro Stoxx 50 index

Rank Name YTD Rank Name YTD Rank Name Expensive Rank Name Cheap

1 NOKIA OYJ 33% 1 DEUTSCHE BANK-RG -35% 1 HERMES 43.7 1 VOLKSWAGEN-PREF 5.7

2 AIRBUS SE 29% 2 DEUTSCHE POST-RG -28% 2 ASML HOLDING NV 32.5 2 DAIMLER AG 6.4

3 ASML HOLDING NV 28% 3 ING GROEP NV -19% 3 ESSILOR INTL 30.5 3 BAYER MOTOREN WK 7.2

4 SAFRAN SA 25% 4 SAINT GOBAIN -19% 4 L'OREAL 30.1 4 SOC GENERALE SA 8.2

5 HERMES 23% 5 DAIMLER AG -18% 5 LVMH MOET HENNE 25.8 5 BBVA 8.4

6 LVMH MOET HENNE 22% 6 BNP PARIBAS -16% 6 INDITEX 25.7 6 AXA 8.4

7 KONINKLIJKE PHIL 19% 7 BBVA -16% 7 SAP SE 24.0 7 BNP PARIBAS 8.4

8 ENI SPA 17% 8 AXA -15% 8 VIVENDI 23.7 8 ING GROEP NV 9.4

9 KONINKLIJKE AHOL 17% 9 SOC GENERALE SA -15% 9 DEUTSCHE BANK-RG 23.3 9 BANCO SANTANDER 9.5

10 TOTAL SA 15% 10 BANCO SANTANDER -15% 10 KONINKLIJKE PHIL 23.1 10 ALLIANZ SE-VINK 10.6

Rank Name RSI Rank Name RSI Rank Name Upside Rank Name Upside

1 KONINKLIJKE AHOL 69 1 BNP PARIBAS 33 1 VOLKSWAGEN-PREF 39% 1 HERMES -14%

2 ASML HOLDING NV 69 2 SAINT GOBAIN 35 2 BNP PARIBAS 35% 2 SAFRAN SA -11%

3 SAFRAN SA 68 3 ORANGE 36 3 SAINT GOBAIN 32% 3 L'OREAL -5%

4 SANOFI 68 4 BAYER AG-REG 39 4 SOC GENERALE SA 31% 4 ASML HOLDING NV -3%

5 SAP SE 65 5 ING GROEP NV 40 5 ING GROEP NV 29% 5 KONINKLIJKE AHOL -2%

6 DEUTSCHE BANK-RG 65 6 INTESA SANPAOLO 41 6 DEUTSCHE POST-RG 28% 6 KONINKLIJKE PHIL 0%

7 SIEMENS AG-REG 61 7 AXA 43 7 AXA 27% 7 ESSILOR INTL 0%

8 MUENCHENER RUE-R 61 8 TELEFONICA 44 8 INTESA SANPAOLO 27% 8 DEUTSCHE BANK-RG 0%

9 NOKIA OYJ 61 9 SOC GENERALE SA 44 9 TELEFONICA 27% 9 AIR LIQUIDE SA 3%

10 KONINKLIJKE PHIL 60 10 BANCO SANTANDER 45 10 BANCO SANTANDER 27% 10 AIRBUS SE 3%

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US STOCKS RADAR

Source: 1875 CIO OFFICE, Bloomberg

Universe: S&P 500 Index

Rank Name YTD Rank Name YTD Rank Name Expensive Rank Name Cheap

1 AMAZON.COM INC 58% 1 PHILIP MORRIS IN -22% 1 AMAZON.COM INC 89.8 1 GENERAL MOTORS C 6.2

2 MASTERCARD INC-A 38% 2 GENERAL ELECTRIC -21% 2 CHARTER COMMUN-A 75.7 2 FORD MOTOR CO 7.1

3 TWENTY-FIRST - B 36% 3 KRAFT HEINZ CO/T -21% 3 PAYPAL HOLDINGS 37.7 3 METLIFE INC 8.8

4 TWENTY-FIRST C-A 35% 4 ALTRIA GROUP INC -20% 4 SCHLUMBERGER LTD 35.0 4 AT&T INC 9.3

5 CONOCOPHILLIPS 28% 5 AT&T INC -18% 5 MASTERCARD INC-A 32.9 5 CAPITAL ONE FINA 9.5

6 VISA INC-CLASS A 24% 6 CELGENE CORP -18% 6 VISA INC-CLASS A 31.3 6 GOLDMAN SACHS GP 9.6

7 MICROSOFT CORP 23% 7 COMCAST CORP-A -15% 7 COSTCO WHOLESALE 30.8 7 CVS HEALTH CORP 9.9

8 NIKE INC -CL B 22% 8 COLGATE-PALMOLIV -14% 8 NIKE INC -CL B 28.9 8 CELGENE CORP 10.1

9 BOEING CO/THE 22% 9 3M CO -14% 9 MICROSOFT CORP 27.4 9 IBM 10.5

10 PAYPAL HOLDINGS 20% 10 PROCTER & GAMBLE -13% 10 ACCENTURE PLC-A 24.8 10 ALLSTATE CORP 10.5

Rank Name RSI Rank Name RSI Rank Name Upside Rank Name Upside

1 BIOGEN INC 76 1 FORD MOTOR CO 32 1 HALLIBURTON CO 33% 1 MONSANTO CO -2%

2 AMAZON.COM INC 75 2 BOOKING HOLDINGS 39 2 CELGENE CORP 29% 2 TARGET CORP -1%

3 PEPSICO INC 72 3 HALLIBURTON CO 39 3 COMCAST CORP-A 28% 3 TWENTY-FIRST - B -1%

4 ELI LILLY & CO 72 4 CHEVRON CORP 41 4 GENERAL MOTORS C 27% 4 SOUTHERN CO 0%

5 BERKSHIRE HATH-B 71 5 CISCO SYSTEMS 43 5 CVS HEALTH CORP 26% 5 TWENTY-FIRST C-A 1%

6 WALT DISNEY CO 71 6 AT&T INC 44 6 GENERAL DYNAMICS 24% 6 COSTCO WHOLESALE 1%

7 GILEAD SCIENCES 70 7 MCDONALDS CORP 44 7 CHARTER COMMUN-A 24% 7 BRISTOL-MYER SQB 1%

8 PFIZER INC 69 8 ABBVIE INC 44 8 DOWDUPONT INC 22% 8 BIOGEN INC 2%

9 LOWE'S COS INC 69 9 KRAFT HEINZ CO/T 45 9 CATERPILLAR INC 22% 9 NEXTERA ENERGY 2%

10 UNITED TECH CORP 69 10 STARBUCKS CORP 46 10 PHILIP MORRIS IN 22% 10 PROCTER & GAMBLE 2%

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1875 FINANCE – OFFICES & CONTACT

Loïc SCHMID

Chief Investment Officer (CIO)

T +41 (0) 22 595 18 75

lschmid@1875.ch

OFFICES 1875 CIO OFFICE CONTACTS

Jean-Alexandre MERYAdvisory team

T +41 (0) 22 595 18 75

jamery@1875.ch

Louis SOOTSAdvisory team

T +41 (0) 22 595 18 75

lsoots@1875.ch

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