1875 FINANCE

THE FINANCIAL PLACE TO BE

1875 CIO OFFICE – ADVISORY TEAM

Morning Briefing – Wednesday, August 15, 2018

“U.K. Equities: soon, a buying opportunity?”

2

DAILY MARKET DATA

Source: 1875 CIO OFFICE, Bloomberg 15.08.2018 08:00

Equity indices Price 1 Day YTD Price 1 Day YTD Countries 2Y Yield 5Y Yield 10Y Yield

US - DOW JONES 25'300 0.45% 2.35% Consumer Discretionary245.17 0.20% 2.99% USA 2.62% 2.75% 2.88%

US - S&P500 2'840 0.64% 6.22% Consumer Staples 224.46 -2.37% -8.46% Eurozone -0.65% -0.25% 0.32%

US - NASDAQ 7'871 0.65% 14.01% Energy 235.07 2.18% 1.76% Switzerland -0.83% -0.48% -0.16%

CANADA - TSX 16'331 0.49% 0.75% Financials 119.87 0.96% -1.71% UK 0.70% 1.00% 1.26%

MEXICO - IPC 49'096 0.67% -0.52% Healthcare 239.35 -0.55% -1.07% Sweden -0.57% -0.10% 0.47%

Industrials 251.04 1.06% -1.10% Canada 2.12% 2.23% 2.31%

Technology 242.84 -1.21% 5.08% Japan -0.13% -0.09% 0.09%

Equity indices Price 1 Day YTD Materials 250.45 1.55% -1.85% Australia 1.99% 2.18% 2.57%

EUROPE - EURO STOXX 50 3'409 -0.01% -2.70% Telecom Services 68.39 -0.17% -6.27% China 2.90% 3.31% 3.57%

UK - FTSE 100 7'612 -0.40% -0.99% Utilities 129.30 0.03% -2.08% Turkish 25.17% 23.85% 15.34%

GERMANY - DAX 12'359 0.00% -4.33%

FRANCE - CAC 40 5'403 -0.16% 1.71%

SWITZERLAND - SMI 9'010 0.05% -3.96% Price 1 Day YTD Price 1 Day YTD

SPAIN - IBEX 9'507 -0.25% -5.35% VIX S&P 500 13.31 -9.95% 20.56% GLOBAL COMMODITY

ITALY - FTSE MIB 20'906 -0.30% -4.33% VXN Nasdaq 15.16 -8.23% -3.32% CRB Index 190.44 0.07% -1.77%

SWEDEN - OMX 1'609 -0.20% 2.01% VSTOXX Stoxx600 15.86 -0.50% 17.39% ENERGY

V3VI SMI 14.12 1.55% 19.76% Crude Oil (WTI) USA 66.74 -0.45% 12.98%

Brent oil UK 72.28 -0.25% 12.25%

Equity indices Price 1 Day YTD Natural Gas 2.956 -0.10% 5.99%

JAPAN - NIKKEI 225 22'198 -0.71% -2.49% Price 1 Day YTD BASE METALS

CHINA - SHANGHAI COMP 2'733 -1.73% -17.37% EUR / USD 1.1330 -0.12% -5.62% Aluminium 2070 -0.58% -8.73%

HONG KONG - HIS 27'268 -1.75% -8.86% EUR / CHF 1.1288 0.09% -3.55% Copper 6044 -1.78% -16.60%

SINGAPORE - STI 3'234 -0.27% -4.96% EUR / GBP 0.8916 -0.01% 0.39% Zinc 2454 -1.17% -26.06%

EUR / SEK 10.3806 0.12% 5.56% Cobalt 63864 -0.01% -15.08%

EUR / TRY 7.2031 -0.12% 58.42% Lithium 286.40 N/A 0.49%

Equity indices Price 1 Day YTD USD / CHF 0.9962 0.20% 2.25% PRECIOUS METALS

BRAZIL - IBOVESPA 78'602 1.43% 2.88% USD / SEK 9.1618 0.24% 11.96% Gold 1187.8 -0.53% -8.83%

RUSSIA - RTS 1'082 2.05% -6.32% USD / JPY 111.2500 0.09% -1.28% Silver 14.92 -0.93% -11.93%

INDIA - BSE SENSEX 37'852 0.55% 11.14% USD / TRY 6.3552 0.08% 67.32% Palladium 960.34 -0.50% -15.86%

TURKEY - BIST 100 93'419 0.79% -19.00% GBP / USD 1.2708 -0.12% -5.96% Platinum 788.57 -1.63% -15.05%

Commodities

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CARTOON OF THE DAY

Source: Hedgeye.com

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RELEVANT NEWS

Economy & FX

Companies

• U.S. Stocks Snap Four-Day Skid as Turkey Concerns Ease

• U.K. Equities Are Global Pariahs Amid Fears of Messy Brexit

• Stocks Fall, Dollar Gains as Risk-Off Mood Lingers

• SMI Index Little Changed; Roche Leads Advance

Markets

Interesting articles

• Italian Populists Pile On to EU After 35 Die in Bridge Disaster link

• Krona Traders May Be Underestimating Swedish Election Risks link

• China Wealth Fund Said to Back Takeover of Yum Brands Spinoff

• Battered Tencent Looks for Bottom After $150 Billion Wipeout

• Verizon Signs Apple, Google as Partners for 5G TV Service

• Lira Rout a Godsend for Turkey Firms as Bond Buybacks Turn Cheap

• Lira Resumes Drop as Central Bank Steps Fail to Stem Sell-Off

• Trump Irked by Erdogan Over Turkey’s Refusal to Free U.S. Pastor

• China Is Said to Freeze Game Approvals Amid Agency Shakeup

15.08.2018 08:30

Name Last Day chg %

Dow Jones fut 25265.00 -0.11

S&P500 fut 2838.00 -0.11

Nasdaq fut 7450 -0.11

Eurostoxx 50 fut 3412 0.06

Dax fut 12370.00 0.08

CAC40 fut 5408 0.09

SMI fut 9003 0.24

Nikkei fut 22180 -0.63

Hang Seng fut 27233 -1.46

WTI Oil fut 66.76 -0.42

Gold 1188.22 -0.49

EUR/USD 1.1337 -0.06

GBP/USD 1.2716 -0.06

EUR/CHF 1.1293 0.13

USD/CHF 0.9962 0.20

US 10Y Yield 2.89 -0.01

CHF 10Y Yield -0.10 0.00

5

CHART OF THE DAY - EXTERNAL RESEARCH

Source: 1875 CIO OFFICE, Bloomberg

“Unloved and Underperforming” : In dollar terms, U.K. stocks have plunged VS their global peers

SPI INDEX

SMI INDEX

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Tradseni index : New 52-week highs divided by the sum of the new highs plus the new lows red zone = overbought conditions

PUT/CALL ratio :. Ratio between the total volume of equity put options over call options, as reported at the end of the day red zone = oversold conditions

AAII US Bull Sentiment : The index reflect the sentiment of individual investors towards the stock market over the next 6 months red zone = overbought conditions

US STOCK MARKET SENTIMENT INDICATORS

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COMPANIES RESULTS / UPGRADES & DOWNGRADES

Analysts recommendations

Major companies results

Source: 1875 CIO OFFICE, Bloomberg

Source: 1875 CIO OFFICE, Bloomberg

US EPS [e]

Macy's Inc 0.501

NetApp Inc 0.8

Cisco Systems Inc 0.687

Upward Recommendations Downward Recommendations

Chipotle Upgraded to Overweight at Morgan Stanley Bayer Downgraded to Hold at Jefferies; PT 92 Euros

Papa John's Upgraded to Hold at Stifel; PT $38 Valeo Downgraded to Hold at HSBC; PT 45 Euros

Amundi Upgraded to Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT 77.50 Euros Vipshop Holdings ADRs Downgraded to Sell at Citi

8

ECONOMIC DATA OF THE DAY

Source: 1875 CIO OFFICE, Bloomberg

Time Country / Zone Event Period Survey Prior Relevance

08:00 RU Industrial Production YoY Jul 2.60% 2.20% High

10:30 UK CPI YoY Jul 2.50% 2.40% High

10:30 UK Retail Price Index Jul 282.10 281.50 Medium

10:30 UK RPI MoM Jul 0.30% 0.30% Medium

10:30 UK PPI Input NSA YoY Jul 10.40% 10.20% Medium

10:30 UK PPI Output NSA YoY Jul 3.10% 3.10% High

13:00 US MBA Mortgage Applications Aug 10 -- -3.00% High

14:30 US Empire Manufacturing Aug 20.00 22.60 High

14:30 US Nonfarm Productivity 2Q P 2.50% 0.40% Medium

14:30 US Retail Sales Advance MoM Jul 0.10% 0.50% High

15:00 RU CPI WoW Aug 13 -- 0.00% Medium

15:15 US Industrial Production MoM Jul 0.40% 0.60% High

15:15 US Capacity Utilization Jul 78.20% 78.00% Medium

15:15 US Manufacturing (SIC) Production Jul 0.30% 0.80% Low

16:00 US Business Inventories Jun 0.10% 0.40% Medium

16:00 US NAHB Housing Market Index Aug 67.00 68.00 Medium

22:00 US Net Long-term TIC Flows Jun -- 45'600'000'000 Medium

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COMMODITIES FUTURES

Source: 1875 CIO OFFICE, Bloomberg 15.08.2018 08:00

COPPER -1.42 SUGAR -31.79

ZINC -1.38 LEAN HOGS -27.76

COFFEE -1.13 ZINC -26.27

SILVER -0.98 COPPER -19.89

NICKEL -0.94 COFFEE -16.76

ALUMINIUM -0.89 SOYBEAN OIL -14.96

WHEAT -0.83 SILVER -13.07

SOYBEAN -0.72 LIVE CATTLE -12.22

SOYBEAN MEAL -0.63 ALUMINIUM -10.06

GOLD -0.54 SOYBEAN -9.43

SOYBEAN OIL -0.53 GOLD -9.38

WTI CRUDE OIL -0.39 CORN 2.99

CORN -0.28 NICKEL 5.12

NAT GAS -0.24 NAT GAS 5.84

BRENT CRUDE OIL -0.18 COTTON 6.08

GASOLINE -0.05 SOYBEAN MEAL 6.75

COTTON 0.32 BRENT CRUDE OIL 8.17

LEAN HOGS 0.39 WTI CRUDE OIL 10.53

SUGAR 0.39 GASOLINE 12.99

LIVE CATTLE 0.72 WHEAT 25.82

1D CHANGE (%) YTD CHANGE (%)

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SWISS STOCKS RADAR

Source: 1875 CIO OFFICE, Bloomberg

Universe: Top 100 largest Swiss Companies

Rank Name YTD Rank Name YTD Rank Name Expensive Rank Name Cheap

1 VP BANK AG 48% 1 ARYZTA AG -75% 1 KUDELSKI SA-BR 115.8 1 GAM HOLDING AG 9.1

2 VIFOR PHARMA AG 45% 2 MEYER BURGER TEC -59% 2 TEMENOS GROU-REG 57.5 2 SWISS RE AG 10.6

3 LOGITECH INTER-R 40% 3 GAM HOLDING AG -44% 3 YPSOMED HOLD-REG 46.0 3 ADECCO GROUP AG 10.8

4 KARDEX AG-REG 38% 4 COMET HOLDING-R -41% 4 VIFOR PHARMA AG 44.4 4 UBS GROUP AG 11.1

5 TEMENOS GROU-REG 33% 5 RIETER HLDG-REG -39% 5 STRAUMANN HLDG-R 44.0 5 SCHMOLZ+BICK-REG 11.2

6 SIEGFRIED HO-REG 29% 6 BOBST GROUP -REG -35% 6 LINDT&SPRUENGLI 43.1 6 SWISS LIFE H AG 11.2

7 TECAN GROUP AG-R 22% 7 HOCHDORF HOLDING -32% 7 TECAN GROUP AG-R 38.2 7 HELVETIA HOL-REG 11.7

8 SONOVA HOLDING A 22% 8 BURKHALTER HLDG -30% 8 CHOCOLADEFABR-PC 36.3 8 AUTONEUM HOLDING 11.7

9 LONZA GROUP -REG 21% 9 DORMAKABA HOLDIN -29% 9 PANALPINA WE-REG 36.3 9 EFG INTERNAT AG 12.0

10 IMPLENIA AG-REG 20% 10 EFG INTERNAT AG -29% 10 SUNRISE COMMUNIC 34.1 10 LEONTEQ AG 12.1

Rank Name RSI Rank Name RSI Rank Name Upside Rank Name Upside

1 LONZA GROUP -REG 74 1 SWISS PRIME -REG 23 1 NEWRON PHARMACEU 159% 1 TEMENOS GROU-REG -22%

2 STRAUMANN HLDG-R 69 2 GAM HOLDING AG 23 2 MEYER BURGER TEC 94% 2 LINDT&SPRUENGLI -11%

3 VALIANT HLDG AG 67 3 HOCHDORF HOLDING 24 3 AMS AG 56% 3 CHOCOLADEFABR-PC -11%

4 CEMBRA MONEY BAN 66 4 VALORA HLDG -REG 25 4 GAM HOLDING AG 37% 4 SCHINDLER HO-REG -11%

5 KARDEX AG-REG 63 5 ARYZTA AG 27 5 RIETER HLDG-REG 35% 5 TECAN GROUP AG-R -8%

6 PANALPINA WE-REG 63 6 BOBST GROUP -REG 31 6 COMET HOLDING-R 34% 6 SIEGFRIED HO-REG -8%

7 TEMENOS GROU-REG 63 7 EMS-CHEMIE HLDG 31 7 EFG INTERNAT AG 31% 7 STRAUMANN HLDG-R -6%

8 VZ HOLDING AG 62 8 DUFRY AG-REG 32 8 CREDIT SUISS-REG 29% 8 PANALPINA WE-REG -6%

9 FORBO HOLDIN-REG 62 9 BARRY CALLEB-REG 32 9 KUDELSKI SA-BR 26% 9 VIFOR PHARMA AG -6%

10 SUNRISE COMMUNIC 61 10 ARBONIA AG 34 10 AUTONEUM HOLDING 26% 10 GIVAUDAN-REG -5%

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EUROPEAN STOCKS RADAR

Source: 1875 CIO OFFICE, Bloomberg

Universe: Euro Stoxx 50 index

Rank Name YTD Rank Name YTD Rank Name Expensive Rank Name Cheap

1 AIRBUS SE 30% 1 DEUTSCHE BANK-RG -37% 1 HERMES 43.8 1 VOLKSWAGEN-PREF 5.7

2 HERMES 25% 2 BBVA -23% 2 ESSILOR INTL 31.9 2 DAIMLER AG 6.4

3 ADIDAS AG 25% 3 ING GROEP NV -23% 3 ASML HOLDING NV 31.2 3 BAYER MOTOREN WK 7.3

4 SAFRAN SA 25% 4 DEUTSCHE POST-RG -23% 4 L'OREAL 29.5 4 BBVA 7.6

5 ASML HOLDING NV 25% 5 SAINT GOBAIN -21% 5 VIVENDI 24.1 5 SOC GENERALE SA 7.8

6 LVMH MOET HENNE 22% 6 DAIMLER AG -20% 6 INDITEX 24.1 6 BNP PARIBAS 8.3

7 KONINKLIJKE PHIL 19% 7 BANCO SANTANDER -19% 7 SAFRAN SA 24.0 7 AXA 8.7

8 NOKIA OYJ 17% 8 BAYER AG-REG -18% 8 LVMH MOET HENNE 23.9 8 ING GROEP NV 8.9

9 ENI SPA 17% 9 SOC GENERALE SA -17% 9 SAP SE 22.9 9 BANCO SANTANDER 9.1

10 TOTAL SA 16% 10 BNP PARIBAS -17% 10 DEUTSCHE BANK-RG 22.9 10 INTESA SANPAOLO 10.0

Rank Name RSI Rank Name RSI Rank Name Upside Rank Name Upside

1 ADIDAS AG 72 1 BAYER AG-REG 23 1 VOLKSWAGEN-PREF 42% 1 HERMES -14%

2 UNILEVER NV-CVA 60 2 BBVA 25 2 SAINT GOBAIN 34% 2 SAFRAN SA -6%

3 HERMES 60 3 ING GROEP NV 27 3 BAYER AG-REG 34% 3 L'OREAL -3%

4 DEUTSCHE POST-RG 60 4 INTESA SANPAOLO 31 4 INTESA SANPAOLO 33% 4 DEUTSCHE BANK-RG 0%

5 SAFRAN SA 58 5 BANCO SANTANDER 31 5 SOC GENERALE SA 32% 5 KONINKLIJKE AHOL 1%

6 DEUTSCHE TELEKOM 55 6 SAINT GOBAIN 33 6 BNP PARIBAS 32% 6 ESSILOR INTL 2%

7 LVMH MOET HENNE 53 7 NOKIA OYJ 33 7 ING GROEP NV 31% 7 KONINKLIJKE PHIL 4%

8 KONINKLIJKE PHIL 53 8 SOC GENERALE SA 34 8 BBVA 31% 8 UNILEVER NV-CVA 4%

9 VIVENDI 51 9 ENEL SPA 35 9 BANCO SANTANDER 29% 9 ADIDAS AG 5%

10 ESSILOR INTL 51 10 SIEMENS AG-REG 35 10 BASF SE 27% 10 AIR LIQUIDE SA 7%

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US STOCKS RADAR

Source: 1875 CIO OFFICE, Bloomberg

Universe: S&P 500 Index

Rank Name YTD Rank Name YTD Rank Name Expensive Rank Name Cheap

1 AMAZON.COM INC 64% 1 GENERAL ELECTRIC -29% 1 AMAZON.COM INC 74.4 1 GENERAL MOTORS C 6.0

2 MASTERCARD INC-A 35% 2 KRAFT HEINZ CO/T -23% 2 CHARTER COMMUN-A 71.3 2 FORD MOTOR CO 7.0

3 TWENTY-FIRST - B 32% 3 FORD MOTOR CO -23% 3 PAYPAL HOLDINGS 37.3 3 METLIFE INC 8.7

4 TWENTY-FIRST C-A 32% 4 PHILIP MORRIS IN -22% 4 SCHLUMBERGER LTD 35.1 4 CAPITAL ONE FINA 8.7

5 CONOCOPHILLIPS 31% 5 ALTRIA GROUP INC -17% 5 MASTERCARD INC-A 31.9 5 AT&T INC 9.1

6 NIKE INC -CL B 28% 6 AT&T INC -17% 6 COSTCO WHOLESALE 31.8 6 GOLDMAN SACHS GP 9.3

7 MICROSOFT CORP 28% 7 HALLIBURTON CO -17% 7 VISA INC-CLASS A 30.8 7 MORGAN STANLEY 9.9

8 TARGET CORP 27% 8 3M CO -15% 8 NIKE INC -CL B 30.2 8 CVS HEALTH CORP 10.1

9 APPLE INC 24% 9 CATERPILLAR INC -14% 9 MICROSOFT CORP 25.6 9 IBM 10.4

10 VISA INC-CLASS A 23% 10 COLGATE-PALMOLIV -13% 10 SIMON PROPERTY 24.7 10 ALLSTATE CORP 10.5

Rank Name RSI Rank Name RSI Rank Name Upside Rank Name Upside

1 ELI LILLY & CO 83 1 FORD MOTOR CO 23 1 HALLIBURTON CO 32% 1 TARGET CORP -6%

2 APPLE INC 73 2 BOOKING HOLDINGS 24 2 GENERAL MOTORS C 31% 2 ELI LILLY & CO -2%

3 CELGENE CORP 71 3 GENERAL ELECTRIC 30 3 GENERAL ELECTRIC 28% 3 SOUTHERN CO -1%

4 QUALCOMM INC 70 4 HALLIBURTON CO 33 4 CATERPILLAR INC 25% 4 BRISTOL-MYER SQB 0%

5 AMAZON.COM INC 69 5 GENERAL MOTORS C 34 5 GENERAL DYNAMICS 24% 5 PFIZER INC 1%

6 PFIZER INC 68 6 EXXON MOBIL CORP 34 6 BLACKROCK INC 23% 6 COSTCO WHOLESALE 1%

7 UNITEDHEALTH GRP 68 7 BLACKROCK INC 34 7 COMCAST CORP-A 23% 7 NIKE INC -CL B 2%

8 CVS HEALTH CORP 67 8 HOME DEPOT INC 35 8 MORGAN STANLEY 23% 8 NEXTERA ENERGY 2%

9 ALLERGAN PLC 66 9 MORGAN STANLEY 36 9 CHARTER COMMUN-A 22% 9 TWENTY-FIRST - B 2%

10 MERCK & CO 66 10 BANK NY MELLON 36 10 SCHLUMBERGER LTD 21% 10 APPLE INC 2%

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T +41 (0) 22 595 18 75

lschmid@1875.ch

OFFICES 1875 CIO OFFICE CONTACTS

Jean-Alexandre MERYAdvisory team

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jamery@1875.ch

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