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18/07/2013
Modelling land use dynamics in support of Spatial
Planning and Policy-making in Flanders, Belgium
Guy Engelen, Inge Uljee, Lien Poelmans, Jean-Luc de Kok and Leen Van Esch
VITO, Environmental Modelling Unit, Boeretang 200, 2400 Mol, Belgium
Confidential – © 2009, VITO NV – All rights reserved
The aims
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Confidential – © 2009, VITO NV – All rights reserved
Aims: Policy-support and Research
» New Spatial Planning Policy to be presented in the Flemish parliament in March 2014;
» Defining short-term policy goals which are consistent with long-term plans and visions;
» Integrating uncertainties caused by societal choices in policy preparation Scenarios;
» Experimenting with new scientific tools in support of practical spatial planning: enabling exploration and foresight;
» Land use modelling as an integrating element in scenario-analysis;
» Usefulness of high-resolution land use models for long-term explorations in spatial planning;
» Usage of the model outcomes by spatial planners.
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Po
licy-m
akin
g
Researc
h
Confidential – © 2009, VITO NV – All rights reserved
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Flanders Region
308 municipalities
±13,000 km2
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Brussels Region
19 municipalities
±750 km2
Antwerpen
Mechelen
Brussel
St. Niklaas
Gent
Aalst
Leuven
Brugge
Hasselt
Kortrijk
Turnhout
Roeselare
Confidential – © 2009, VITO NV – All rights reserved
The model
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Confidential – © 2009, VITO NV – All rights reserved
18/07/2013 7
1,375,000 cells1 ha
37 land uses
Gent
Antwerpen
Brussel
Mechelen Runs 2010-2050
Simulation in 20 min.
Timestep / Output 1 year
RuimteModel Flanders (White, Engelen, Uljee, 1997)
CCA Land use dynamics
2010 - 2050
Natural not managed (5)
Natural managed (6)
Agricultural (6)
Other (8)
Socio-economic (15)
Socio-economic (15)
Confidential – © 2009, VITO NV – All rights reserved
RuimteModel: Constrained Cellular Automata (White, Engelen, Uljee, 1993; EU-JRC MOLAND, 2007)
Cellular Automata
Land use dynamics
at Cell level 1 ha (1,375,000)
Zoning & legislation
Accessibility
Physical suitability
Quasi-static cell characteristics
Spatial Interaction Based
Trends and (re-)location of population,
Economic activity, Nature, Agriculture, ...
at arrondissement level (23)
Local level
Global level
Regional level
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The scenarios
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18/07/2013 11 © 2011, VITO NV
4 Worldviews for Flanders – (2010-2050)
International
Regional
Governments Private sector
Worldviews
= Scenario families
Flanders as we
know it today
Explorations - Contextual scenarios - Plausible futures - IPCC-SRES
Key uncertainties
= Societal choices
Key uncertainties
= Societal choices Strong Europe
Global Economy
Regional Communities
Transatlantic Markets
18/07/2013 12 © 2011, VITO NV
4 Worldviews for Flanders – (2010-2050)
Strong Europe Global
Economy
Regional Communities
Transatlantic Markets
Explorations - Contextual scenarios - Plausible futures - IPCC-SRES
International
Regional
Governments Private sector
- United Europe
- Solidarity, redistribution
- Government intervention
- Environmental concern
- Immigration uniting families
- Freedom and individualism
- Global markets
- Technological development
- Strong grow
- Strong immigration
- Separated global regions
- Safety
- New coalitions
- Selective immigration
- Repressive government tasks
- Regional identity
- Local production/consumption
- Solidarity
- Decentralised government,
- Limited government spending
Business as Usual (BAU) - Continuation of known trends
- Same government intervention
- Continued policies on environment,
energy, social security, etc.
18/07/2013 13 © 2011, VITO NV
Procedure
Qualitative
analysis WVs
WLO reverse
engineering
systems
analysis
Expert
Workshop
Analysis
of relevant
characteristics
Welvaart &
LeefOmgeving
WLO (2006)
scenarios
Netherlands
2000-2040
Inspiration and
global trends
and numbers
Worldviews
Quantifying and modelling
with RuimteModel
1 Development of BAU+ 2010-2050
2 Definition Global model per WV
trends population, employment
Spatial claims nature/agriculture
3 Definition Regional model per WV
parameters per WV
4 Definition Local model per WV
Validation of spatial paterns
intra-WV en inter-WV
Confidential – © 2009, VITO NV – All rights reserved
BAU: Flanders: +720,000; Brussels: +220,000
18/07/2013 14 Source: ADSEI, FPB
Reference: Population 2010-2050
Confidential – © 2009, VITO NV – All rights reserved
Reference:
Employment
» Brussels + Flanders:
A modest growth:
+/- 3,226,000 in 2010
+/- 3,500,000 in 2050
» Decline in industry;
Growth in commerce;
Growth in services.
18/07/2013 15 Source: ADSEI, FPB/BFP, RSV, employment in seaports
BAU 2010
industrie
handel
diensten
havens
overig residentieel, commercieel, industrieel
BAU 2050industrie
handel
diensten
havens
overig residentieel, commercieel, industrieel
Industry
Commerce
Services
Seaports
Other
(self employed)
Industry
Commerce
Services
Seaports
Other
(self employed)
Flanders Economic mix 2010
Flanders Economic mix 2050
Confidential – © 2009, VITO NV – All rights reserved
18/07/2013 16
Antwerpen
Mechelen
Brussel
St. Niklaas
Gent
Aalst
Leuven
Brugge
Hasselt
Kortrijk
Turnhout
Land use 2010
Land use 2050
Confidential – © 2009, VITO NV – All rights reserved
18/07/2013 17
Contiguous Open spaces 2010
Contiguous Open spaces 2050
Antwerpen
Mechelen
Brussel
St. Niklaas
Gent
Aalst
Leuven
Brugge
Hasselt
Kortrijk
Turnhout
Growth of urbanised area:
Residential: +/- 5 ha per day !!
Other: +/- 2 ha per day !!
18/07/2013 18 © 2011, VITO NV
0
1000000
2000000
3000000
4000000
5000000
6000000
7000000
8000000
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
bevolkingsomvang Vlaanderen
BAU
SE
GE
RC
TA
Population Flanders
0
500000
1000000
1500000
2000000
2500000
3000000
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
totale tewerkstelling Vlaanderen
BAU
SE
GE
RC
TA
Employment Flanders
Spatial claim Nature Flanders
4 Worldviews: Global level
18/07/2013 19 © 2011, VITO NV
TA SE GE RC
4 Worldviews: Regional level
18/07/2013 20 © 2011, VITO NV
TA SE GE RC
4 Worldviews: Regional level
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
-0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5
Diensten - Alpha2
Current value
0.0651731
Diensten - m Current
value 1.58966
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5
Industrie -
Afstandsgevoeligheid
Current value 0.886
Diensten -
Afstandsgevoeligheid
Current value 0.25
Soc.Cult. -
Afstandsgevoeligheid
Current value 1.17
Wonen Dun -
Afstandsgevoeligheid
Current value 2
+ ++
+
++
- --
---
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Some results
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4 Worldviews 2010-2050: Land use
Strong Europe Global
Economy
Regional Communities
Transatlantic Markets
International
Regional
Governments Private sector
- United Europe
- Solidarity, redistribution
- Government intervention
- Environmental concern
- Immigration uniting families
- Freedom and individualism
- Global markets
- Technological development
- Strong grow
- Strong immigration
- Separated global regions
- Safety
- New coalitions
- Selective immigration
- Repressive government tasks
- Regional identity
- Local government, decentralised
- Local production/consumption
- Solidarity
- Limited government spending
Antwerpen
Mechelen
St. Niklaas
Antwerpen
Mechelen
St. Niklaas
Antwerpen
Mechelen
St. Niklaas
Antwerpen
Mechelen
St. Niklaas
18/07/2013 23 © 2011, VITO NV
4 Worldviews 2010-2050: Population density
Strong Europe Global
Economy
Regional Communities
Transatlantic Markets
International
Regional
Governments Private sector
- United Europe
- Solidarity, redistribution
- Government intervention
- Environmental concern
- Immigration uniting families
- Freedom and individualism
- Global markets
- Technological development
- Strong grow
- Strong immigration
- Separated global regions
- Safety
- New coalitions
- Selective immigration
- Repressive government tasks
- Regional identity
- Local government, decentralised
- Local production/consumption
- Solidarity
- Limited government spending
-2 - 2 2 - 5 5 - 10 10 - 20 20 - 50 > 50 < -50 -20 - -50 -10 - -20 -5 - -10 -2 - -5
Turnhout
Antwerpen
Geel
Turnhout
Antwerpen
Geel
Turnhout
Antwerpen
Geel
Turnhout
Antwerpen
Geel
18/07/2013 24 © 2011, VITO NV
4 Worldviews 2010-2050: Monte Carlo - Urban
Strong Europe Global
Economy
Regional Communities
Transatlantic Markets
International
Regional
Governments Private sector
- United Europe
- Solidarity, redistribution
- Government intervention
- Environmental concern
- Immigration uniting families
- Freedom and individualism
- Global markets
- Technological development
- Strong grow
- Strong immigration
- Separated global regions
- Safety
- New coalitions
- Selective immigration
- Repressive government tasks
- Regional identity
- Local government, decentralised
- Local production/consumption
- Solidarity
- Limited government spending
Antwerpen
Mechelen
Brussels
St. Niklaas
Gent
Aalst Leuven
Antwerpen
Mechelen
Brussels
St. Niklaas
Gent
Aalst Leuven
Antwerpen
Mechelen
Brussels
St. Niklaas
Gent
Aalst Leuven
Antwerpen
Mechelen
Brussels
St. Niklaas
Gent
Aalst Leuven
346315 Cells with probability
to urbanise >0
Cells that urbanise
Antwerpen
Mechelen
Brussels
St. Niklaas
Gent
Aalst
Leuven
18/07/2013 25 © 2011, VITO NV
4 Worldviews 2010-2050: Monte Carlo - Nature
Strong Europe Global
Economy
Regional Communities
Transatlantic Markets
International
Regional
Governments Private sector
- United Europe
- Solidarity, redistribution
- Government intervention
- Environmental concern
- Immigration uniting families
- Freedom and individualism
- Global markets
- Technological development
- Strong grow
- Strong immigration
- Separated global regions
- Safety
- New coalitions
- Selective immigration
- Repressive government tasks
- Regional identity
- Local government, decentralised
- Local production/consumption
- Solidarity
- Limited government spending
18/07/2013 26 © 2011, VITO NV
Conclusions
Confidential – © 2009, VITO NV – All rights reserved
Conclusions
» Flanders will be faced with continued urban sprawl and pressure on its open spaces;
» Worldviews entail distinctly different challenges to spatial planning. Robust policy instruments are to be developed;
» Working with existing worldviews led to good results rapidly;
» RuimteModel Flanders enabled representing 89% of all scenario characteristics;
» Spatial indicators more than land use results were well received by the spatial planners;
» Land use modelling supports Research by Design as practiced in Spatial Planning.
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