17 nov08 rei fernandes

Research Group onEnergy & Sustainable Development

Road Map for Portugal

Rei Fernandes

Research Group on Energy & Sustainable Development Instituto Superior Técnico

http://www.lasef.ist.utl.pt/sustenergy/index.htm

Vimeiro, 17 November 20082


Overview

Hydrogen Roadmaps

Methodology & Assumptions

Modelling, Results & Impacts

Action PlanShort Term

Medium-Long Term




The Hydrogen Economy

HYDROGEN represents a promising way to a more sustainable energy system. However, R&D is still needed to cut costs, improve performance and evaluate advantages and obstacles to the introduction of hydrogen into transport and power generation markets.

Many regions of the world have developed, or are making efforts to prepare a hydrogen roadmap.




A Hydrogen Roadmap is:

A JOINT ENDEAVOR of industry, government, academia and the public providing a structured process for a coordinated, long-term effort in preparing, introducing and implementing hydrogen into energy and transport systems.

AN IDENTIFICATION INSTRUMENT for the key technologies, products and markets, together with foreseeable obstacles to their development, introduction and use, and the possible measures to be overcome.

AN ASSESSMENT of expected impacts on the market, society and environment.




A Hydrogen Roadmap is:

A NAVIGATION TOOL for strategic planning and implementation of research development, structural changes and infrastructural investment.

AN OPPORTUNITY FOR COMMUNICATION between all involved stakeholders of different backgrounds, viewpoints and interests.

Provides a national platform to encourage the development of a hydrogen economy

A TECHNICAL, ECONOMIC AND STRATEGIC ANALYSIS leading to a master plan with a derived list of actions based on a combination of visions pathway scenarios and systems modeling.




Origins of PT Roadmap

Origins of Portuguese hydrogen energy roadmap go back to 2003

Group of interested parties led by SRE began negotiations with the Agency for Innovation for a proposal on new energy technologies that facilitate the growth of the hydrogen economy. Government sponsor – not driver

Actual Start – October 20062003-2006 - Portuguese institutions became involved in a series of pan-European hydrogen related research projects.




HyWays Recommendations




Methodology

Vision building through Stakeholder participation - HI-POSCENARIOS DEVELOPMENT

Scenarios workshopScenarios developmentConsultation with expertsFinal set of scenarios

MULTI-CRITERIA ANALYSISDefinition of stakeholders' panelMulti-criteria mapping interviewsAnalysis of the interviews' results

PATHWAYS & ROADMAPPathways analysis and contribution for the definition of a hydrogen roadmap




Assumptions

Assumptions are very important Can change the results dramatically

Main AssumptionsFossil Fuel Price evolve over time (but high level of uncertainty)Share of renewable energy in the Hydrogen Production Costs and cost evolution of the Hydrogen technologies (high level of uncertainty, lack of validated sources of information)Ban on nuclear No “conventional” Coal Power Plants without carbon sequestration will be implemented from 2015 onwards




Scenarios

Baseline scenario of business as usual

High penetration rate

Moderate penetration rate

These scenarios have a mandatory target for hydrogen technologies for the transport, residential and commercial sectors at two different penetration rates




Penetration Rates

40.0%22.6%7.6%0.7%Moderate penetration

74.5%54.4%23.7%3.3%High penetration

2050204020302020Scenario / Point in Time

1.7%5%0.7%2%0.2%0.5%

>0%0.1%

Moderate penetration

3.3%10%2.7%8%1.3%4%0.3%1%High penetration

ComResComResComResComRes

2050204020302020Scenario

Transport

Stationary




Bounds

40%33.3%26.7%20%

2050204020302020

Minimum share of renewable energy in hydrogen production

<30%<20%<15%Solar thermochemical cycles

<10%<15%<20%<20%Centralised production with CCS (coal and natural gas)

>7.5%>5%>5%>2.5%Wave

>20%>20%>10%>7.5%Wind

5-10%5-15%5-15%>5%Biomass

2050204020302020Technology/fuel

Technology-specific bounds for hydrogen production




Models used

TIMES – dynamic cost optimisation model to determine the lowest cost technology solutions to satisfy both the demand and any set of restrictions. It targets technological, environmental and economic impacts. Copert – model for calculating pollutant emissions such as (CO2, CO, NOx. SOx) from the transport sector. It targets environmental impacts.ISIS – input-output model for calculating the social impacts of the introduction of hydrogen.Infrastructure analysis – semi-quantitative process of determining geographical distribution of hydrogen technologies over time.KCAM – fully qualitative systematic process for collecting the views of the stakeholders. Identification of key changes needed for a successful hydrogen introduction in the Portuguese energy system.




Modelling

Schematic representation of the modelling process

(Adapted from HyWays)

Schematic representation of the TIMES modelling process




Total Hydrogen Production

Mainly for transport sector

Transport by truck, 90% as compressed hydrogen

Total Hydrogen Production, (PJ/a)

21.2

0.97.1

40.7

4.1

23.6

79.7

55.7

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2020 2030 2040 2050

PJ

/a

Moderate penetration

High penetration




Hydrogen Production Mix

H2 production - contribution by technology in %

62.3%

80.0%73.3% 73.3%

66.7% 66.7%60.0% 60.0%

5.0%

5.0%

5.0% 5.0%

5.0% 5.0%

5.0% 5.0%

10.7%

4.1%6.7% 6.7%

3.3% 3.3%7.5% 7.5%

7.5%

7.5%10.0% 10.0%

20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0%

14.5%3.4% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 7.5% 7.5%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Moderate High Moderate High Moderate High Moderate High

Year

SMR Onsite Biomass Solar Thermocycles Wind (Onsite + Centralised) Waves

2020 2030 2040 2050




CO2 & GHG Emissions:

CO2 emissions in the Commercial Sector

900

1000

1100

1200

2020 2030 2040 2050

Kto

n/a

BaselineModerate PenetrationHigh Penetration

CO2 emissions in the "Supply" Sector

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

2020 2030 2040 2050

Kto

n/a

Baseline

Moderate Penetration

High Penetration

GHG Emissions (Kton/a)Light Passenger Vehicles and Buses

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

2020 2030 2040 2050

Kto

n/a

Baseline


High Penetration

Commercial

Supply Sector

Transport

Total GHG emissionsTotal GHG emissions of the system

55000

57000

59000

61000

63000

65000

2020 2030 2040 2050

Kto

n/a

Baseline


High Penetration




CO2 emissions: & driving cycle

CO2 Emissions / ton

538730224%

425600719%

1305325957%

Urban

Rural

HW

1

10

100

1000

10000

100000

1000000

10000000

100000000

CO2

Em

issi

on

s p

er v

ehic

le t

ype

(to

n)

PC LDV HDV Bus Moped Coache

According to

vehicle type

According to

driving cycle




Astra Modelling Results

Results are a first iteration

POP

MAC

FOT

REM

TRA

WEM

ENV

VFT

Potential Labour Force Population Structure

Dis

po

sab

le In

com

e

Co

nsu

mp

tion

, In

vest

me

nt

in V

ehic

les,

VA

T

GDP, (Un-)Employment, Sectoral Output

Population Change

VK

T

Sectoral Goods Flows

Ca

r F

lee

t

Fuel Price

GDP, Productivity

Exports, Imports

Transport Expenditure, Performance, Time

VAT Revenue Fuel Tax Revenue

GDP, Employment, ....

Fu

el

Pric

e

Emissions, Noise, Accidents

Transport Cost, Time OD

Transport Demand OD

POP = Population Module MAC = Macroeconomics Module REM = Regional Economics Module FOT = Foreign Trade Module

Abbreviations:

TRA = Transport Module ENV = Environment Module VFT = Vehicle Fleet Module WEM = Welfare Measurement Module

ASTRA Modules and Main Interfaces

Generalized Cost OD

Fleet Structure




Impact on economic indicators




Impact on Employment




Overall Impact

Overall macro-economic impacts for Portugal are negative (for the assumptions & bounds chosen!)

H2FCV not cost competitiveHigher investment and running cost for hydrogen vehicle

High level of hydrogen produced from renewablesRenewable strategy may lead to other benefits like reduction of pollutants and improvement of security of supply

Indicators (hydrogen production or fuel cell patents and demonstration projects) Portugal is not well-placed compared to leading countries in these areas




Next steps

Results are a first iteration

Results differ from HyWays study for other European countriesAssumptions have to be revisited

Reliability has to be proved in an additional study

Closer examination of assumptions & bounds in HyWays & this project




Remarks

It is not an event Marks the beginning of a processPortugal has gained some experienceHave a team and consortium with considerable capacity

Task is very demandingNeed for resourcesNeed to embrace policy makers




Actions

What do we need to do?




‘20-20-20’ target

European SET Plan:

Fuel cells - key technology for Europe for20% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions;

20% share of renewable energy sources in the energy mix;

20% reduction in primary energy use by 2020

"Energy for a Changing World – An Energy Policy for Europe”, the goals of its Lisbon Strategy and the European Council’s Conclusion on a European Energy Strategy for Transport, 29 May 2007




Governance of the JTI

EE

E EE

R

TG

P HS

C

E

R

T

G

P

H

S

TRANSPORTATION

POWER GENERATION

PORTABLE & MICRO POWER

HYDROGEN PRODUCTION & DISTRIBUTION

SMALL & MEDIUM ENTERPRISES

CROSS CUTTING

RESEARCH INSTITUTES

EUROPEAN COMMISSION

C

Public Bodies 50% voting

Private Bodies (Industry Group) 50% voting

The governing board is to represent all major stakeholders

‘Joint Undertaking’ on the basis of Article 171 of the EC Treaty




FCH JU Fuel Cell & Hydrogen Joint Undertaking

Governing Board Executive Director

Three advisory bodiesScientific Committee (max. 9)

academia, industry & regulatory bodies – cover complete technical domain needed to make strategic science-based recommendations regarding the FCH JU.

FCH States Representatives Group (SRG)one from each MS & associated countries

Stakeholders' General Assemblyopen to allmeets once a year




EU Regions workshop in Turin




KCAM conclusions

Final use main barrier to implementation of all H chains

need many trials & demonstrations to validate technology

Initially, decentralized production of hydrogen eliminates barriers associated with transportationavoids problems for renewable energy, such as availability & cost of connection to electricity grid

Carbon sequestration is in its infancyhigh coststechnical & economic feasibility not yet evident

Central Government needs to take a leading role in the establishment of the Hydrogen Economy




Actor Groups

AGENTES 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17Cadeia energética - produção/distribuição 4 4 3 4 5 3 2 4 6 5 6 5 1 5 5 4 4

Gabinetes de engenharia e projecto 5 4 4 5 4 6 0 5 6 6 6 6 2 3 4 5 3

Infra-estrutura 3 4 4 3 3 3 1 2 5 5 4 4 3 4 4 3 4

Automóvel 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2

Governo central 4 6 6 4 6 7 5 5 7 7 7 7 4 6 6 4 6

Entidades locais e regionais 4 4 2 4 5 3 1 4 5 4 5 4 3 4 4 3 4

Governo supranacional 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 4 4 1 2 2 2 4

Investigação, universidades e consultoria 2 2 2 3 3 2 4 2 2 2 3 3 0 2 2 2 2

Sociedade civil e ONGs 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0

Associações de Hidrogénio 4 4 4 4 5 4 2 3 5 4 5 4 3 5 5 4 5

Sectores de transportes e logística 1 2 2 1 2 2 1 1 2 2 3 3 2 2 2 1 4

Produção especializada de equip. para H2 4 4 3 4 4 3 5 4 3 3 4 4 2 4 4 4 3

Agricultura / Floresta 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Comunicação social 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0

Construção e gestão imobiliária 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Serviços Financeiros 1 1 2 1 1 2 0 0 1 1 2 2 0 0 1 1 0

Outros 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

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6+

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CADEIA

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Medium-term Prospects

Portugal has a high potential for the production of hydrogen on the basis of renewablesPortuguese industry

Experience in the field of conventional car manufacturing Possibility of successful export orientation in special technology fieldsSome experience with the production of hydrogen

An adequate industry policy may offer the possibility to change the competitiveness situation of Portugal




Action plan for PT

In order to encourage a sustainable hydrogen economy, the main actions should be developed around players with the capacity for action and influence in the national market of energy Central Government should be encouraged to create a feed-in tariff that encourages and benefits the end use of hydrogen in its various applications The establishment of a regulatory framework that benefits and creates conditions for the use of hydrogen will be a first step to start the expansion of hydrogen.




Actions up to 2020

Promote H as energy vector where there is no need for dense hydrogen distribution networks;

Central GovernmentEnergy Agencies Industrial users

Create regulatory regime to encourage use of H -Central Govt.

energy agencies to take advantage of regulatory regime

Create incentives for:automotive industry R&D in Universities and Research Centers

Encourage partnerships between Universities & Research Centers & industry

R&D to meet industry needs

No need dense hydrogen distribution network;




Actions 2020 to 2030

Create Incentives (Central Govt.) for development of small scale end use applications

Develop transmission and distribution network for hydrogen




Conclusions

Long term: Roadmap can be many thingsComplex or simple

Short term: Get involved: FCH-JUResearch Grouping

State Representatives Group

Medium term: Exploit Portugal's PotentialRenewables

Create favourable conditions Feed-in tarrif

regulatory framework




Thank You for your attention

Rei Fernandes [email protected]

mailto:[email protected]
