www.ciat.cgiar.org

Global Futures and Strategic Foresight:

Update for Team Meeting

Steven Prager – Integrated ModelingDecision and Policy Analysis, CIAT – Cali,

Colombia

GFSF Team Meeting – 25-28 May 2015Rome

Highlights

• Update on key crops– Where we’re at with beans, rice and cassava.

• Methodological side issues– Turning ALC into a virtual greenhouse.– Understanding SSPs from a regional perspective.– Side Project 1: distributional equity with ROI.– Side Project 2: efficient portfolios of technology.

• Current and pending…

Beans

Priority Setting

Cultivar Identification

Tech Specification

Global Crop Modeling

Heat and drought - Calima, Carioca, ICTA-OSTUA, BAT 1289 -

Nearing completion.

In process.

Rice

Priority Setting

Cultivar Identification

Tech Specification

Global Crop Modeling

Heat and drought - Fedearroz2000 Fedearroz60 Fedearroz174, CIRAD409 - Nearing completion.

In process.

Rice – Working with FLARStakeholder Ranking Categoría Tecnología All SLO Ranking

expertos

1 Tecnologías de producción, agronomía, manejo del cultivo

Adecuar las fechas de siembra a la máxima oferta de radiación solar 3.74 4.08 7

2Estudios socio-económicos, políticos y el impactos sobre el arroz

Evaluar los riesgos sanitarios y ambientales del uso de plaguicidas en los sistemas de arroz

3.66 3.89 19

3 Tecnologías de producción, agronomía, manejo del cultivo

La gestión del agua en la producción agrícola 3.59 3.87 3

4 Mejoras de los cultivos Mejoramiento de variedades para obtener mayor rendimiento 3.56 3.84 1

5 Manejo de los recursos genéticos

Detección fenotípica y/o molecular de las variedades locales en busca de rasgos de alto valor / nuevas fuentes / tolerancia / resistencia al stress.

3.56 3.79 10

6 Cadenas de valor, post-cosecha, comercialización y utilización.

Desarrollo de la competencia cadenas de valor del arroz 3.47 3.57 16

7Estudios socio-económicos, políticos y el impactos sobre el arroz

Evaluación del acceso de los pequeños agricultores a las nuevas tecnologías 3.46 3.53 17

8 Materiales de siembra Sistemas de semillas de calidad 3.45 3.64 2

9 Cadenas de valor, post-cosecha, comercialización y utilización.

Desarrollo de las organizaciones de agricultores y grupos de agricultores vinculados a los mercados

3.45 3.37 18

10 Manejo de los recursos genéticos Mantenimiento de los recursos genéticos 3.44 3.58 4

Cassava• Model currently in development

– DSSAT Sprint, field validation.• Modeling emphasis currently planned around

value chains and various policy scenarios.

Cassava Value Chains

• Gender issue – certain technology changes have sizable gender consequences (e.g., easier to peel) and also value chain implications (need for tighter value chain).– Take home: technologies have different effects

depending on the lens used to look at the tech.

Some Methodological Side-Projects

• Understanding regional appropriateness of cultivar choices and relative performance of implemented technologies.

• Regional emphasis also raised the question as to how well regions and individual countries line up with SSPs.

• In several of our stakeholder interactions, equity of distribution of benefits came up. Led to equity of technology adoption side-study.

• Additionally, stakeholder interactions led to interest in understand potential for analysis of portfolios…

Analyzing Crop TechnologyWe wanted to be able to justify the selection and specification of crop models (i.e., cultivars and tech implementation).

Idea is to test how different models run across a selection of different latitudinal, elevation and climate gradients. Similar to methodology used in CropLife report, with minimal variation in assumptions regarding soils, fertilizers, etc.

Currently hoping to wrap up crop modeling piece and moving on to analysis.

RegionalAnalyses

• Mapping SSPs to regional realities and individual countries is a challenge.

• Colombia has 3 FPUs…

Equity & Technology Adoption

0 500 1000 1500 2000-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

WFG = 4

WFG = 3

WFG = 2

WFG = 1

96%

96%

96%

96%

71%

71%

71%

71%

50%50%50%50%

38%

38%

38%

38%

%

%

Welfare Gain Map

Welfare Gain Isoquants

Adoption Rate Isoquants

(Re)Interpretation of Black-Scholes-Merton parameters in the agricultural R&D context

Recent Visible Work Products

• Bean priority setting paper– Agronomia Colombiana (national peer reviewed

journal)– DAPA blog entry on beans complete.

• Rice priority setting poster – The Rice Conference (regional mtg in Brazil)

• Foresight Modeling Workshop @ CIAT– Science Innovation Marketplace activity during our

APR (pending).

Less Visible Products

• Bean cultivar analysis & report• Rice cultivar analysis & report• Rice research priority analysis & report

In progress: Towards impact (with IMPACT)…

• Understanding the role crop improvement in the context of climate change: A case study of drought tolerance in beans and rice in Colombia– Study being developed from our with GFSF and

IDB for a volume being produced for Colombia Bank of the Republic

Related activities…

• IFPRI LED Work in Colombia– I would like to ask that the GFSF team at CIAT be involved in this given

our relationships with MADR, MADS, etc.– It’s IMPACT related, its Colombia related, and ultimately linked to

forages (our final mandate group).• UFL Project: Next generation plant breeding and modeling.

– CIAT has been asked to coordinate CG activities and contribution. We have been promoting integration of IMPACT and foresight modeling in this effort, building on existing synergies with UFL/IFPRI/others.

• We have databases of subnational estimates of yield in beans and rice (and some cassava) for much of ALC.– Useful for IPRs?

THANKS!s.prager@cgiar.org