Welcome and OverviewKeith Wiebe

GFSF Extended Team MeetingRome, 25 – 28 May 2015

Session 1 Welcome and overview• Introductions• Logistics• Review agenda• Update on GFSF• CRP Phase 2 process• Role of quantitative foresight modeling

Meeting objectives

• Information sharing and team-building• Model improvement• Work planning• PIM Phase II pre-proposal• Also• Communications and administrative issues• Planning for upcoming events

Meeting agenda

Monday, 25 May – Overview, Center progress reports, IMPACT baseline, IPR review 09:00 Session 1: welcome and update on GFSF, CRP phase 2 process, role of foresight (Keith)

Moderator: Aden 10:30 Coffee 11:00 Session 2: Center progress reports (WorldFish, IWMI, IRRI, ILRI) Moderator: Anita 12:30 Lunch 13:30 Session 3: IMPACT version 3.2 baseline and web visualization tool (Daniel and Shahnila)

Moderator: Nedu 15:00 Coffee 15:30 Session 4: IPR review – roots, tubers, bananas and plantains (Daniel, Tim, centers)

Moderator: Nhuong 19:30 Dinner at Ristorante La Villetta (walk from hotel at 19:15)

Meeting agenda

Tuesday, 26 May – Center progress reports and IPR review (continued) 09:00 Session 1: Center progress reports (IITA, IFPRI, ICRISAT, ICRAF) Moderator: Thanasis 10:30 Coffee 11:00 Session 2: IPR review – cereals (Daniel, Tim, centers)

Moderator: Michael 12:30 Lunch 13:30 Session 3: Center progress reports (ICARDA, CIP, CIMMYT, CIAT) Moderator: Dolapo 15:00 Coffee 15:30 Session 4: IPR review – pulses, cash crops, fruits and vegetables (Daniel, Tim, centers) Moderator: Arega (Dinner on your own)

Meeting agenda

Wednesday, 27 May – Strategic foresight to inform the CRP research portfolio 09:00 Session 1: IMPACT version 3.3 model improvements and links to other models (Sherman)

Moderator: Steve 10:30 Coffee 11:00 Session 2: Update on livestock and fish models (Sherman, Daniel, Dolapo, Tim, Nhuong)

Moderator: Tri 12:30 Lunch 13:30 Session 3: Baseline scenarios for the CRP foresight activity (brainstorming) Moderator: Sika 15:00 Coffee 15:30 Session 4: Alternative scenarios for the CRP foresight activity (brainstorming) Moderator: Aditya 19:30 Dinner at the Abitart Hotel

Meeting agenda

Thursday, 28 May – Center presentations, planning, communications, next steps 09:00 Session 1: Center presentations (Bioversity, AfricaRice, CIFOR) Moderator: Roberto 10:30 Coffee 11:00 Session 2: Planning for foresight contribution to PIM pre-proposal (Keith, all)

Moderator: Rose 12:30 Lunch 13:30 Session 3: Communications and administrative issues (Kim and Tim)

Moderator: Ahmad 15:00 Coffee 15:30 Session 4: Next steps and closing (Keith) (Dinner on your own)

Session 1 Welcome and overview• Introductions• Logistics – expenses, per diem, etc.• Review agenda• Update on GFSF• CRP Phase 2 process• Role of quantitative foresight modeling

Update on GFSF

• Expansion, also turnover• Progress on many fronts – which we will hear about• PIM management comments on 2014 activity

reports (Karen 12May15)• Overall impressive, diverse• Integration needs to increase, e.g. re CGIAR planning• Also publications – especially ISI• Reporting, branding• More on gender – impacts, prioritization• Examples of good reports – deliverables complete, gender included, links with

national partners and decisions

• Gates and CCAFS

Update on GFSF

• Evaluation of PIM/GFSF• Focused on IMPACT (and specifically IMPACT2)• Missed other dimensions of GFSF• Mixed messages on collaboration (within CGIAR and also AgMIP)• Some surprising conclusions, e.g. leave IMPACT to IFPRI• But some important questions, e.g. re engagement with decision

makers (CGIAR, national, other)

• PIM evaluation more broadly (Karen 25Mar15)• A CRP like PIM should continue• Link research with policy making• More strategic collaboration with other CRPs• Collaboration across global models• More on gender in foresight work

Update on GFSF

• Status of 2015 PIM and IFPRI/Gates contracts• Collaboration with University of Florida• AgMIP – pest and disease workshop, ERL paper, use

of IMPACT IPRs by other modeling groups, IPCC• Global Food Security paper and Discussion Paper• Upcoming: ICAE Milan, next GFSF extended team

meeting, Strategic Foresight Conference, COP• Gates phase 2 ends September 2016, prospect of

phase 3?• Informing CGIAR planning…

CRP Phase II process

• Strategy and Results Framework• SLOs and IDOs• targets

• DGs’ meeting in Windsor 11-13 May 2015• decision about Phase II CRPs (or is it a proposal?)• timeline for CRP pre-proposals and full proposals

Source: CGIAR 2016-2030 SRF Summary, 18 May 2015

Source: CGIAR 2016-2030 SRF Summary, 18 May 2015

The CGIAR Strategy and Results Framework

Reduced PovertyImproved food and nutrition security

for health

Improved natural resource systems

and ecosystem services

Increased resilience of the poor to

climate change and

other shocks

Enhanced smallholder

market access

Increased incomes

and employment

Increased productivity

Improved diets for poor and

vulnerable people

Improved food safety

Improved human and

animal health

through better

agricultural practices

Natural capital

enhanced and

protected, especially

from climate change

Enhanced benefit from ecosystem goods and services

More sustainably managed

agro-ecosystems

3 System Level Outcomes (SLOs)10 Intermediate Development Objectives (IDOs)

Source: CGIAR 2016-2030 SRF, 18 May 2015

Source: CGIAR 2016-2030 SRF, 18 May 2015

Source: CGIAR 2016-2030 SRF, 18 May 2015

Source: CGIAR 2016-2030 SRF, 18 May 2015

CRP Phase II process

• Strategy and Results Framework• SLOs and IDOs• targets

• DGs’ meeting in Windsor 11-13 May 2015• decision about Phase II CRPs (or is it a proposal?)• timeline for pre-proposals and full proposals

Phase II of the CRPs

???

Timeline for issuing CRP 2nd call

Source: Consortium Office 12 May 2015

June - Dec 2015* Pre-proposal stage and review Early June Targeted call: Consortium Board (CB) invites Lead Centers to submit pre-

proposals (2 months) for the agreed portfolio of 8-12 CRPs.

Science leaders (CRP leaders & DDGs-R) meet in Montpellier first week of June to identify flagships and geographies

15-August CRP pre-proposals submitted. Review period starts by relevant entities.15 Sept- Sept 28 ISPC review of pre-proposals in 4 categories (pre-proposals not revised)Sept 29 ISPC-Center-Consortium meeting to discuss portfolio post-ISPC review15 Aug – Oct 6 CB/CO analysis of CRP pre-proposals, taking into account ISPC reviews and

IEA CRP evaluations, IAU CRP audits (CB meeting 2-3 Oct, Montpellier)

3 November FC meeting in DC decisions on CRP pre-proposals*Note: During this time period there will be a number of activities as part of GCARD3- a few pilot national

consultations, regional consultations - which will provide valuable engagement with stakeholders and partners for the further development of the portfolio.

Timeline for issuing CRP 2nd call

Nov 2015 - Nov 2016 Full proposal stage and review for proposals rated A or B16 Nov CB invites full proposals 17 Nov ISPC-Consortium-Center meeting to discuss ISPC pre-proposal review and

ISPC/FC guidance for full proposals16 Nov – 31 March Centers prepare and submit full CRP proposals Feb (?) 16 GCARD3 in Africa (ad national consultations during Q1 of 2016)1 Apr – 16 June ISPC pre-review of CRP proposals17 June ISPC-Centers meeting to discuss ISPC review17 June – 31-July Centers revise proposals (and shared with new CGIAR System Council)1 Aug – 30 Sept ISPC (Re-)Review of CRP Proposals10 Nov CGIAR Council decisions on CRP proposals10 Nov – 10 Dec Center revisions of Council must-haves, if any10-20 Dec ISPC final check of Council must haves10 Nov -31 Dec New CRP contracts put in place between CGIAR Council and lead centers From Jan 2017 CRP II implementation Starts 1 January 2017 A twelve year research portfolio with contracts for the first 6 years, and

guaranteed funding for the first 3 years

Source: Consortium Office 12 May 2015

Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May

What is the role of foresight?• On the “demand” side

• CRP decisions and proposal process• IFAD decision• PIM, Gates and CCAFS support; others?

• On the “supply” side• IFAD decision• PIM, Gates and CCAFS funds

• A big challenge, and a big opportunity• How to make it work?

26

What is the role of foresight?• Using the IMPACT system of models to explore alternative futures

• Through the Global Futures and Strategic Foresight program

• One of several inputs to inform CGIAR planning for 2017-2022

• Funding from PIM, BMGF, CCAFS – and…?

Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May

Model improvements, baseline scenarios

Alternative scenarios, draft report Review and revisions

Proposed work flow

Model improvements• IPR review• Livestock module• Links to CGE model• Links to env models• Links to fish model• Links to nutrient tables• Links to health model

Baseline scenarios• Definition• Quantification

Alternative scenarios• Definition• Quantification

Advisory committees• Selection• meetings

GFSF team• Composition• Work plan

First draft report

Baseline scenario runs

Alternative scenario runs

Revised draft report

Proposed work flow

Model improvements• IPR review• Livestock module• Links to CGE model• Links to env models• Links to fish model• Links to nutrient tables• Links to health model

Baseline scenarios• Definition• Quantification

Alternative scenarios• Definition• Quantification

Advisory committees• Selection• meetings

GFSF team• Composition• Work plan

First draft report

Baseline scenario runs

Alternative scenario runs

Revised draft report

Scenarios

• Baseline• Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)• Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)• Links to AgMIP

Scenarios

• Baseline• Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)• Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)• Links to AgMIP

• Alternative• Broadly reflective of alternative CRP portfolios• Different regional emphases?• Different commodity group emphases?• Other criteria?• How many?

What is the role of foresight?• On the “demand” side

• CRP decisions and proposal process• IFAD decision• PIM, Gates and CCAFS support; others?

• On the “supply” side• IFAD decision• PIM, Gates and CCAFS funds

• A big challenge, and a big opportunity• What, and for whom?

• IFPRI Discussion Paper? Nature article? Science Policy Forum? COP/GLF? Other options?

Scale of foresight analysis

Scale of analysis Scale of value Scale of funding

Center Center Center

CRP CRP CRP

CGIAR CGIAR CGIAR

Other partners Other partners Other partners

Questions?Comments?

Suggestions?Our task this week.