1

U.S. Recovered Paper Markets

Presented By

Stan LanceyChief Economist

American Forest & Paper Association

To

The Municipal Waste Management AssociationLexington, KY

October 21, 2004

2

Total U.S. Paper Recovery

1 0

1 5

2 0

2 5

3 0

3 5

4 0

4 5

5 0

5 5

1 9 8 8 1 9 8 9 1 9 9 0 1 9 9 1 1 9 9 2 1 9 9 3 1 9 9 4 1 9 9 5 1 9 9 6 1 9 9 7 1 9 9 8 1 9 9 9 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 1 2 0 0 2 2 0 0 3

Millions of tons

Up 88% since 1988Up 4% since 2000

3

Key U.S. Recycling Metrics -- 2003

• Paper consumed in U.S.—98.0 million tons• Paper recovered for recycling—49.3 million tons• Recovery rate (49.3/98.0)= 50.3%• Recovered paper consumed in U.S. mills– 33.7

million.• Total fiber consumed in U.S. mills—91.7 million

tons.• Recovered paper’s share of total fiber consumed

(33.7/91.7)=37%

4

Recovered Paper Highlights

N e w s p r in t7 %

T is s u e8 %

B o x b o a r d1 5 %

O t h e r1 1 %

N e t E x p o r t s2 7 %

C o n t a in e r b o a r d3 2 %

Recovery rate has increased from 30.5% in 1988 to 50.3% in 2003.

Recovered paper’s share of industryfiber pie has increased from 25.0%In 1988 to 37.0% in 2003.

(see chart 18 for details.)

2003 End Uses:

5

Recovery of Selected MSW Materials*

0

5

1 0

1 5

2 0

2 5

3 0

3 5

4 0

P a p e r M e t a l s G l a s s P l a s t i c s

Million tons

Source: EPA * Data pertain to 2001

According to the EPA’s Characterization of the Waste Stream, paper accounts for 54% of MSW recovery, with the next biggest category being yard waste at 23%.

Paper recovery dwarfs the other industrial materials. It’s six times larger than all metals combined and 26 times larger than plastics.

6

“Rapidly growing demand for recovered paper exports…will bring pressure on domesticusers of recovered paper.” (Source: Recovered Paper – Future Challenges And Opportunities by Franklin Associates, July 2002, Page ES12.)

“The volumes of recovered paper traded internationally will grow significantly. North America’s export surplus will need to grow from 11.3 million tons in 2003 to 18.5 million tons by 2010.”(Source: EU Consulting, Germany andMoore & Associates, U.S., 2004)

7

U.S. Exports of Recovered Paper

0

2

4

6

8

1 0

1 2

1 4

1 6

1 9 9 5 1 9 9 6 1 9 9 7 1 9 9 8 1 9 9 9 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 1 2 0 0 2 2 0 0 3 2 0 0 4 *

N o n - C h i n a C h i n a & H o n g K o n g

Source: U.S. Census Bureau * Annualized data through June

+3.3%+22%

Exports have grown 85% since 1997

8

Exports As % of U.S. Paper Recovery

0

5

1 0

1 5

2 0

2 5

3 0%

27%

9

U.S. Recovered Paper Exports To China

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

1 9 9 5 1 9 9 6 1 9 9 7 1 9 9 8 1 9 9 9 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 1 2 0 0 2 2 0 0 3 2 0 0 4 *

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Million short tons

* Annualized data through April

10

China’s Share of U.S. Recovered Paper Exports

0

5

1 0

1 5

2 0

2 5

3 0

3 5

4 0

4 5

5 0

1 9 9 5 1 9 9 6 1 9 9 7 1 9 9 8 1 9 9 9 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 1 2 0 0 2 2 0 0 3 2 0 0 4

%

Source: U.S. Census Bureau Data

47%

12%

China’s share of U.S.recovered paper exportshas increased sharply duringrecent years and will probably top the 50% mark by 2005

6%

11

Chinese Recovered Paper Imports

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

1 0

1 9 9 8 1 9 9 9 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 1 2 0 0 2 2 0 0 3

Million tons

12

China’s Recovered Paper Imports by Region/Country --2003

U . S . , 6 4 %

E u r o p e , 1 5 %

J a p a n , 1 0 %

O t h e r , 1 1 %

Source: China Customs

13

U.S. Recovered Paper Exports by Destination*

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7Million tons

* 2003 data

14

Major Export Categories*

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

M i x e d C o r r u g a t e d N e w s &M e c h a n i c a l

H i g h G r a d e s

Million short tons

*Based on 2003 Bureau of the Census data

15

U.S. Paper & Paperboard Production

Millions of Tons per Annum

7 0

7 5

8 0

8 5

9 0

9 5

1 0 0

1 9 9 0 1 9 9 1 1 9 9 2 1 9 9 3 1 9 9 4 1 9 9 5 1 9 9 6 1 9 9 7 1 9 9 8 1 9 9 9 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 1 2 0 0 2 2 0 0 3 2 0 0 4

Source: AF&PA

16

OCC and ONP May Be Approaching Maximum Recovery

Recovery Rates

1987 2003Old Corrugated Containers 48.6% 75.8%

Old Newspapers 32.7% 73.4%

Office Papers 19.9% 48.3%

Printing-Writing Papers 22.5% 39.4%

Total Paper & Paperboard 28.8% 50.3%

Source: 1998 and 2003 Recovered Paper Statistical Highlights, American Forest & Paper Association.

17

Possible Impact of Single Stream on Paper Recycling Value Chain

- 1 5

1 08

3

- 2 0

- 1 5

- 1 0

- 5

0

5

1 0

1 5

C o l l e c t i o n P r o c e s s i n g P a p e r M i l l N e t I m p a c t

$ per ton

Source: JPC/SERA