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The Future of Information andCommunication Technology

Vint Cerf

January 2009

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360#3

UCSBPDP10

940

#2SRI

#4UTAH

#1UCLA

Sigma7

The Original ARPANET

Dec 1969

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Internet 1999

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Internet - Global Statistics 2008

(approx. 3.5 B mobiles and 1 Billion PCs)

542 Million Hosts

(ISC Jan 2008)

1,464 Million Users(InternetWorldStats.com,

June 30, 2008)

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Regional Internet Statistics 6/30/08

Region Internet Population

% penetration

Asia 578.5 Mil. 15.3 %

Europe 384.6 Mil. 48.1 %

North Am. 248.2 Mil. 73.6 %

LATAM/C 139.0 Mil. 24.1 %

Mid-East 41.9 Mil. 21.3 %

Oceania 20.2 Mil. 59.5 %

Africa 51.0 Mil. 5.3 %

TOTAL 1,463.6 Mil. 21.9 %

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Internet-enabled Devices

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Near Term Changes

•IPv6 - 128 bit addresses (3.4 X 1038)

•DNSSEC (.se, .pr, .bg, .br, others?)

• Internationalized Domain Names

– Non-Latin Unicode characters

– ASCII Punycode encoding “xn--…”

– Potential hazards (e.g. paypal, .py (paraguay or russia?))

• New ccTLDs and gTLDs

– ISO 3166-1 (ASCII 2 char) -> iCCTLDs (how many scripts?)

– Rules for gTLD instantiation, dispute resolution at TLD level?

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Landscape

•Failure of Moore’s Law (re: increasing clock speed)– Multi-core chips

– Off-chip I/O capacity?

– Parallel algorithms?

• Conventional Relational DBs are not scaling

• Increasing need to segregate, compartment, protect data (privacy, legal protections (e.g. SEC), corporate trade secrets,…)

• Huge data collections (sensor networks, WWW, digitized everything)

• Bit-Rot problem (it’s 3000, can you interpret 1997 PPT?)

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Inside the Cloud

• Virtual Structures (file system, Big Table, Load Sharing)

• Data replication (for reliability or speed)

• Functionality (scheduling, MAP/REDUCE, Crawl, apps)

• Inter-machine, intra-cloud protocols (TCP/IP? Others?)

• Multiple Data Centers (replication, responsiveness)

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Between the Clouds

• Inter-cloud data exchange (formats? Meta data?)

• Inter-cloud protocols (TCP/IP? Other?)

• Cloud Services? (what are they?)

• Analogy to pre-Internet (IBM/SNA, DEC/DECNET, HP/DS,…)

• Inter-Cloud communication highlights key issues

– How to refer to other clouds?

– How to refer to data in other clouds?

– How to make data references persistent (unlike URLs)?

– How to protect Clouds from various forms of attack (inside, outside)?

– How to establish an access control regime (inside, between clouds)?

– What semantics can we rely on with inter-cloud data exchange?

– What notion of “object” would be useful for inter-cloud exchange?

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Security and the Cloud

•Intra-cloud security

• Protection from infection, denial of service

• Access controls

– Strong Authentication (users, hosts, processes?)

– Hardware assisted security? Sandboxing?

– Content access controls (discretionary, statutory)• Think: personnel records, health records, financial records…• Ephemeral access controls?

– Data structures, efficient user/access control enforcement

• Persistent computing (reliability)

– Cloud has to work even if parts are broken

– Data has to be accessible even if disks fail

– Data transfer and storage implications

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Inter-Cloud Security

•How to preserve access controls after data transfers?

•How to protect inter-cloud transfers in transit?

•What meta-data needs to accompany data transfers? Re-establishing context in a new Cloud.

•How to protect against inter-cloud infection? (trojan horses, viruses, worms…)

•Clouds have virtual structures made up of hundreds of thousands or even millions of computers. How to protect the integrity of the virtual structures? The physical structures?

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Client/Cloud Interactions

•How does a client interact with multiple clouds?

•Is the WWW metaphor sufficient?

•Can clients create unintended and unwanted Inter-Cloud signaling paths?

•Can a client initiate multi-Cloud computations? Transfers?

•How does collaboration work in an inter-Cloud environment?

•Is a personal digital assistant a cloudlet? Can it be connected to more than one Cloud at a time?

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Broadband Networking

•Economics of access (rural, suburban, urban)?– Sustainable competition?

– Monopoly regulation?

– Prevention anti-competitive behaviors (vertical, horizontal)

– Varieties of technologies?

• Impact of local conditions

– Available power

– Spectrum

– Fiber/copper

– Right-of-way

– Trained staff

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Legal Frameworks

•Privacy and Law Enforcement– Law of the Net?

•Domestic/international support for e-commerce– Legal value of digital signatures?

– Dispute resolution in international settings?

• Intellectual Property Protection

– Existing Copyright framework(s)

– New ideas (Creative Commons, Copyleft, etc.)

– Automatic detection of abuse (e.g. YouTube fingerprinting)

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Security

•Strong Authentication (eg. Public Key Cryptography)– Users, hosts, processes

– Access Controls

– Accounting/Audit trails

– Recent MD5 Certificate attack demonstration!

• Malware defenses– Browser and Operating System weaknesses and defenses

– Botnet armies

• End/End Cryptography– Wireless access

– Internet Protocol Security, Transmission Level Security, Secure Socket Layer, etc.

• Domain Name System Security (DNSSEC)– Signed domain names

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Digital Libraries

•Prospective acquisition

•Retrospective digitization

•User, Author, Publisher, Library rights and responsibilities

•“Books” that talk to each other (John McCarthy)

•RSS feeds for publications that change?

•Stable references (ie NOT URLs) and granularity?– E.g. Handle System, Digital Object Identifiers

•Long-term stable repositories

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InterPlaNetary Internet

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Interplanetary Internet:“InterPlaNet” (IPN)

•Planetary internets

•Interplanetary Gateways

•Interplanetary Long-Haul Architecture (RFC 4838)– Licklider Transport Protocol (LTP)

– Bundle Protocol (RFC 5050)• Delayed Binding of Identifiers• Email-like behavior

•TDRSS and NASA in-space routing

•Delay and Disruption Tolerant Protocols– Tactical Mobile applications (DARPA)

– Civilian Mobile applications (SameNet!)

– Deep Impact Testing October/November 2008

– Space Station Testing 2009

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•End-to-end information flow across the solar system

•Layered architecture for evolvability and interoperability

•IP-like protocol suite tailored to operate over long round trip light times

•Integrated communications and navigation services