““Optical Internetworking Optical Internetworking and the Internet”and the Internet”

Vint Cerf

MCI WorldCom

Optical Internetworking Forum

June 1999

Life Lesson #101Life Lesson #101

On the art of

prediction….

Some memorable

examples...

Famous Last WordsFamous Last Words

"This 'telephone' has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered as a means of communication. The device is inherently of no value to us.”

--Western Union internal memo, 1876

Famous Last WordsFamous Last Words

"The wireless music box has no imaginable commercial value. Who would pay for a message sent to nobody in particular?"

--David Sarnoff's associates in response to his urgings for investment in the radio in the 1920s.

Famous Last WordsFamous Last Words

"640K ought to be enough for anybody."

-- Bill Gates, 1981

Famous Last WordsFamous Last Words

“32 bits should be enough address space for Internet”

-- Vint Cerf, 1977

The largest network

of networks in the world.

Uses TCP/IP protocols and packet switching .

Runs on any communi-

cations substrate.

What is the Internet?What is the Internet?

Some Major MilestonesSome Major Milestones 1969 - 1985 Basic Packet Net Research 1974 - Internet design first published 1983 - first major deployment 1986 - first router companies 1989 - WWW; MCI Mail/Internet link 1990 - ARPANET retired; first comm’l

services (UUNet, PSINet) 1994 - commercial WWW (Netscape) 1995 - NSFNet retired, competitive backbone 1998 - New IANA/ICANN

Internet - Recent StatisticsInternet - Recent Statistics

3 M Level 2 Domains (NW July 1998)

43.2 Million Hosts (NW January 1999)

206/246 IP countries (NW July 1998)

165 Million Users (NUA May 1999)

(830 Million Telephone Terminations)

Users on the Internet - May 1999Users on the Internet - May 1999

CAN/US - 90.65M Europe - 40.09M Asia/Pac - 26.97M Latin Am - 5.29M Africa - 1.14M Mid-east - 0.88 M

--------------------------- Total - 165M

CAN/US

Europe

Asia/Pac

Latin Am

Africa

Mid East

Internet Hosts (000s) 1989-2006Internet Hosts (000s) 1989-2006

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

600000

700000

800000

900000

1000000

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

hosts

ObservationsObservations

75% of traffic on Internet is WWW 3 Million Web Sites (est. Jan 1999) 700 Million web pages (and dark info) Data Domination (20% voice, 80% data) 8000 ISPs worldwide (4700+ in U.S.) Traffic growth 100-1000%/year reported 300 M - 1000 M users by Dec 2000

Sydney

UUNET GLOBAL

NETWORK - Mid 1999

OC-48 Based

Hong Kong

Tokyo

Osaka

Seoul

London

Brussels

Amsterdam

Paris

Stockholm

FrankfurtZurich

Milan

Monaco

Total Trans-Pacific Capacity is 500 Mbps

Total Transatlantic Capacity is 3 Gbps

US Domestic Backbone268,794 OC-12 Miles

Singapore

Intranet/Internet MarketIntranet/Internet Market

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

12/31/95 12/31/96 12/31/97 12/31/98 12/31/99

Intranet

Internet

Source:Zona ResearchSource:Zona Research

Internet and MultiMediaInternet and MultiMedia

Internet multicast “video”, telephony and “radio”

Transport of Internet traffic on cable, direct broadcast satellite, radio and broadcast TV

Real-time quality of service support, VOIP e.g. MCI WorldCom’s “Click ‘n Connect”

Mutual Reinforcement among media (print, TV, radio, web, email)

Internet-enabled DevicesInternet-enabled Devices

Information appliances 1997 - 3 M, 1998 - 6 M, 2002 - 56 M (IDC)

WebTV, Palm-Pilot, Nokia 9000,Sony, Nintendo, Sega games

Wearable computers (Hardwear?, Underware?)

vBNS: High Performance Net vBNS: High Performance Net for Research and Educationfor Research and Education

Very-high-performance Backbone Network Service sponsored by the National Science

Foundation to support high-perf. applications at

Supercomputer Centers and interconnect research Universities (Internet2)

Pac Bell NAP

HAYSan Francisco

NCARNational Center for

Atmospheric Research

SDSCSan DiegoSupercomputer Center

HSJHouston

DNJDenver

Ameritech NAP DNGChicago

NCSANational Center forSupercomputingApplications

NORCleveland

PYMPerryman, MD

Sprint NAP

MFS NAP

PSCPittsburgh

SupercomputingCenterC

A

C

A

C

C

RTOLos Angeles

C

AC

C

ASTAtlanta

C

C C AC

C

C

C

C

WORNew York City

Ascend GRF 400

Cisco 7507

FORE ASX-1000

Network Access Point

Table

A

C

DS-3

OC-3C

OC-12C

CHTBoston

C

WAEWashington, DC

C

C

SEJSeattle

Recent vBNS Recent vBNS

NG IP Trials/Projects in ProgressNG IP Trials/Projects in Progress OC-48c IP Trunk Trial in operation

early use of Packet over SONET targeted for IP/DWDM architecture

MPLS (multiprotocol label switching) traffic engineering strategies

Scalable IP QoS (RSVP, MPLS) Policy Server Development Advanced Traffic Monitoring

NGnet OC48c Trial: vBNSNGnet OC48c Trial: vBNS

JuniperM40

Cisco12008

ForeASX-1000

Newbridge36170

ForeASX-1000

CALREN2South

Cisco12008

ForeASX-1000

Newbridge36170

CALREN2 North Juniper

M40

SCMHAY

RTO

SDSC

OC12c/ATM

OC12c/ATM OC12c/ATM

OC12c/ATMto HSJ

OC12c/ATM

OC12c/ATMto DNJ

OC12cATM

OC12cATM

OC12cATM

OC12cATM

OC3c/ATM

OC3c/ATM

OC48c/POS

CALREN = California Research and Education Network

High Performance NetworkingHigh Performance Networking

DWDM Backbone - Electro-optical or all-optical switching (wavelengths now, packets maybe)

Elimination of SONET Juniper-class (or Cisco 12000, Avici,

Lucent, …) IP switches, MPLS traffic engineering

Edge-derived QOS

Technology TargetsTechnology Targets

Multi-path, class of service routing at level 3 (note ATM PVC usage today) for traffic management

Inter-network protocol for service provisioning, accounting/reconciliation, other service parameters (the analog of X.75 in X.25 or NNI in Frame Relay)

SIP extensions for telephony + general process interaction

Technology Targets (2)Technology Targets (2)

Automatic configuration (DHCP+) Key Certificate management systems (with

global potential) Directory services of all kinds Impact of super scale (billions of devices on

the Internet) IPv6 address space management IPv4/IPv6 interworking

High Performance Last HopHigh Performance Last Hop

Digital Subscriber Loops Cable Modems Fixed Radio links (blimps?, ground link) IR or Radio LANs Mobile Radio is low bandwidth - maybe

100 Kb/s (but new CDMA is 2Mb/s).

Next Generation NetworksNext Generation Networks Switched, broadband digital networks

packet-based (ATM, IP) Fewer layers; switched optical core Managed flows at edges, diff serv core MPLS for traffic engineering, VPNs? Integrated wireless (wireless LAN, DECT,

GSM, CDMA ng), wired (xDSL), satellite, cable

Some of our ChallengesSome of our Challenges High speed, low cost local access Scaling beyond telephony, television and radio (Inter-provider) reliability commensurate with

dependency on Internet Capacity management under high dynamic

range Security and authenticity frameworks Understanding/managing complexity

Bits and AtomsBits and Atoms

Negroponte: transforming our society from atom-based to bit-based

The bit people are telling jokes about atoms: “Lost electron story”

eCommerce IntensifieseCommerce Intensifies

Cisco Systems - $10B/year $20M/day Web sales 80% of sales via Web; $550M cost saving

Dell Computer -$18.2B/year $14M/day Web sales; 35% of total

Intel - $26B/year $1B booked within 15 days of Web start

Internet Transactions Internet Transactions ($Billions)($Billions)

Goods and services traded between companies from $8 billion this year to $327 billion in 2002

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

$Bil

lio

ns

97

98

99

00

01

02

Source: Forrester ResearchSource: Forrester Research

iCommerce in 2003iCommerce in 2003

Commerce sales will be between $1.8 trillion and $3.2 trillion in 2003.

Estimates include business-to-business and business-to-consumer sales and EDI orders placed on the Internet, but exclude the value of financial transactions.

New eCommerce OpportunitiesNew eCommerce Opportunities

Intermediation/outsourcing of online services (brokering, clearing, insuring, business functions such as billing, credit, collection, human resources)

Distance learning, certificate programs Outsourcing of all kinds Web hosting, mirroring, content mgmt

Policy IssuesPolicy Issues

Cryptography and export Trademarks and Copyright Regulatory Framework Liability and Dispute Resolution Convergence (TV, Radio, Telephony) Taxation Censorship/Voluntary Filtering Digital Signatures/Certificate issuance

Future look

..

Today: you go through a

circuit switch to get to a packet switch.

Tomorrow: you’ll go through a

packet switch to get to a circuit switch.

Cerf’s InversionCerf’s Inversion

Our 25 year mission: to go where

no network has gone before!

Space: the final frontierSpace: the final frontier

Interplanetary Internet StatusInterplanetary Internet Status

Part of the Mars Mission Plan Possible Earth/Moon mission 2001 Low Mars Orbit and Areosynchronous

satellites by 2008 Mars Outposts by 2010 Possible Orbiting manned mission 2018 Possible Manned Mars station 2030??

Even Martians

Internet is for Everyone...Internet is for Everyone...

Cerf’s Slides are found at:Cerf’s Slides are found at:

www.wcom.com/cerfsupwww.wcom.com/cerfsup