1

GLOBAL TRADE OVERVIEW

• Workshop

• Favignana, 28-29 September, 2009

• Audun Lem, FAO

2

Outline

• World fish supply and demand– utilization and consumption– trade– China– prices

• Distribution trends• Rise of aquaculture• Conclusions

3

WORLD FISH SUPPLY

4

World fish production

Million t 2007 2008 2009e 2009/

2008

Capture 90 90 90 0

Farmed 50 52 52 0.8%

Total 140 142 142 0.3%

5

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

1950 1953 1956 1959 1962 1965 1968 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007

AquacultureCatch

Millions of tonnes

FISHSTAT 2007

World Fish Production

catch

aquaculture

6

Role of China in production

World capture and aquaculture production

World excluding

China

China

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

1951

1956

1961

1966

1971

1976

1981

1986

1991

1996

2001

2006

Year

Mil

lio

n t

on

nes

7

Fish Utilization

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

OtherFEEDFOOD

Food uses

Feed

8

Per caput food supply (est)

Kg/year 2007 2008 2009 2009/08

Food fish

16.9 16.9 16.8 -0.3%

Capture 9.4 9.3 9.2 -1.3%

Farmed 7.5 7.6 7.6 1.0%

9

Fish in overall protein supply

10

World aquaculture production: growing quickly: 1950-2008,

but slowing down

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1950 1953 1956 1959 1962 1965 1968 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007

AquacultureMillions of tonnes

aquaculture

11

Aquaculture producers 2007

ChinaIndiaVietNamIndonesiaThailandBangladeshJapanChileNorwayRest

China

12

Global Aquaculture Production

Rest of World

Asia

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Year

Pro

duct

ion

quan

tity

(ton

ne x

10

6 )

China vs Rest of Asia

Rest of Asia

China

0

20

40

60

1950 1970 1990Year

Pro

duct

ion

quan

tity

(ton

ne x

10

6)

Asia incl. China

13

WORLD TRADE

14

0

20,000,000

40,000,000

60,000,000

80,000,000

100,000,000

120,000,000

1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006

Developing countriesor areas

Developed countriesor areas

World Fish Trade: Export Value - in 1000 US$ -

developing

developed

15

WORLD FISH EXPORTS US$ 99.5 BILLION (2008)

• TRADE STILL GROWING in ‘08– + 7 % (2008)

• 2008 IMPORTS > USD 100 BILL for 1st time • DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

– 50 % OF WORLD EXPORTS• NET EXPORT REVENUES FROM FISHERIES

CRUCIAL FOR MANY DEVELOPING COUNTRIES – US$ 26 bill. (2008)

16

Share of world fisheries production destined to exports

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

1976 1982 1988 1994 2000 2006

Production

Export

Million tonnes (live weight)

17

Net exports from developing countries

Figure 28: Net exports of selected agricultural commodities by developing countries

-5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

Fish Coffee Rubber Cocoa Bananas Meat Tea Sugar Rice Tobacco

US$ billions

1984

1994

2004

fish

18

Norway6%

Canada4 %

Viet Nam4%

Chile4%

USA5%

Thailand6%

China10%

Russia2%

Indonesia2%

EU (25)26%

Main fish exporters 2008 (value)

19

Main fish importers (2008)

• Japan USD 14.5 bill. 13.8 %

• US USD 14.1 bill. 13.5 %

• EU USD 49.0 bill. 46.8 %

• Total big 3 USD 77.6 bill. 74.1 %

• Total world USD 104.7 bill. 100 %

20

Fish market trends• Japan: long-term decline but small rebound 2008

– high consumption: 65 kg/kaput– imports below 3 million tons in 2007

• USA: long-term growth, overtaking Japan as # 1 country– rising population and consumption /kaput 24 kg

• consumer confidence falling in 2008 and 2009 • 2010 turn-around ?

• EU: long-term growth: # 1 market – expanding population, stable consumption at 20 kg– rising imports: e.g. catfish from Viet Nam, mussels from Chile

• South America– low average consumption, 9 kg per kaput, slow increase– large potential for increase– supply increase must come from aquaculture

21

Distribution

• 71 % of world imports by three markets• within these markets: supermarkets represent

50-85 % of retail sales• concentration of sales whereas industry remains

fragmented• same tendency in developing countries• at the same time: seafood retail net margins

reportedly low compared to other food products

22

Future ?

• Supply side: more concentration in aquaculture for some species (salmon, European bass/bream)– focus on costs, economies of scale– focus on marketing and distribution

• Demand: retail concentration in developed and developing

• But aquaculture has some advantages over wild:– traceability– contracts on price and volumes

23

ISSUES OF IMPACT

24

Role of China in production

World capture and aquaculture production

World excluding

China

China

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

1951

1956

1961

1966

1971

1976

1981

1986

1991

1996

2001

2006

Year

Mil

lio

n t

on

nes

25

Some recent data from Some recent data from ChinaChina

26

Seafood Consumption - Seafood Consumption - ChinaChina

27

Protein Consumption - Protein Consumption - ChinaChina

28

The next China: Viet Nam

• 2008: Nr 5 among world exporters

– but a growing importer as well

• reprocessing

• domestic consumption

29

Commodity prices

• fish versus other food

30

Food prices, excl. fish

31

And fish ?Cod - In Germany, origin: Poland/Norw ay

4.04.55.05.56.06.57.0

Jan-

04

Jun-

04

Nov

-04

Apr

-05

Sep

-05

Feb

-06

Jul-0

6

Dec

-06

May

-07

Oct

-07

Mar

-08

Aug

-08

Jan-

09

Jun-

09

Fillet block, skinless, bonelessEuro/kg

€ 4.35

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

8.00

May

-08

Jun-

08

Jul-0

8

Aug

-08

Sep

-08

Oct

-08

Nov

-08

Dec

-08

Jan-

09

Feb

-09

Mar

-09

Apr

-09

May

-09

Jun-

09

40-50 pc/lb

60-70

70-80US$/kg

Whiteleg shrimp - Penaeus vannameiHead-on, shell-on, origin: South America

US$ 3.90

US$ 4.15

US$ 4.90

Salmon - In Europe, origin: Norw ay

2.02.53.03.54.04.55.05.56.0

Jan-

04

Jun-

04

Nov

-04

Apr

-05

Sep

-05

Feb

-06

Jul-0

6

Dec

-06

May

-07

Oct

-07

Mar

-08

Aug

-08

Jan-

09

Jun-

09

Fresh, gutted, head-on, 3-5 kg/pcEuro/kg

€ 4.10

Alaska pollack In Germany, origin: Russian Federation/USA

1.5

2.5

3.5

4.5

Jan-

04

Jun-

04

Nov

-04

Apr

-05

Sep

-05

Feb

-06

Jul-0

6

Dec

-06

May

-07

Oct

-07

Mar

-08

Aug

-08

Jan-

09

Jun-

09

Frozen - fillets, skinless, bonelessUS$/kg

US$ 3.70

32

The FAO Fish price index

33

FUTURE FISH PRICES ?

• DEMAND: slowly rising– because of population growth– small underlying increase in per kaput consumption

• SUPPLY– capture: stable, not increasing– aquaculture: increasing but declining growth

• PRICE IMPACT ?– most probably slightly higher fish prices but not much– price cycles in commodity markets– industry profitability through product development, technological

innovation and cost reduction

34

TRADE CONTEXT

• 153 countries now in WTO– Russia is ready to join (?): 2010 ?– China joined 2001, Viet Nam in 2007

• WTO: RULES BASED SYSTEM– tariffs– market access (SPS/TBT): quality and safety now main issue in market access– dispute resolution

• Doha Round: 2001 - ?– market access (tariffs)– fisheries subsidies

• Regional and bilateral trade agreements– proliferation– regional trade areas, like EU. – many South American countries active in bilaterals

35

AQUACULTURE FUTURE

• fastest growing food producing sector in the world• accounts for almost 50% of the global food fish• 52 million tons of fish produced worth US$ 75

billion (2007)• Given the projected population growth, an

additional 40 million tons of aquatic food needed by 2030 to maintain current per caput consumption.

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

18.019

70

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

Per c

aput

sup

ply

(kg)

Fromcapturefisheries

Fromaquaculture

capture

aquaculture

2005 2015 2030

37

CONCLUSIONS

• Fish has always been a globalised commodity– but of higher importance for developing countries than most other

commodities

• Fish production is increasing, but only thanks to aquaculture: 50% share in 2008 in food fish

• Fish trade is increasing: almost USD 100 billion in 2008 • Fish trade: big 3 import 71 % but in decline• Outsourcing of production and of processing• Rise of China and Viet Nam, and Russia• Future: India ?

38

THANK YOU