1

GLOBALIZATION AND THE DYNAMICS OF

INTERNATIONAL FISH TRADE

• IIFET 2008• Nha Trang

• Audun Lem, FAO• William Emerson, FAO

2

Outline

• World fish supply and demand– utilization and consumption– trade– China– prices

• World aquaculture: current and future issues

• Conclusions

3

WORLD FISH SUPPLY

4

World fish production

Million t 2005 2006 2007 2007/05 p.a.

Capture 94 92 92 -1.0%

Farmed 49 52 53 4.0%

Total 143 144 145 0.7%

5

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

1950 1953 1956 1959 1962 1965 1968 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007

AquacultureCatch

Millions of tonnes

FISHSTAT 2007

World Fish Production

catch

aquaculture

6

Role of China in production

World capture and aquaculture production

World excluding

China

China

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

1951

1956

1961

1966

1971

1976

1981

1986

1991

1996

2001

2006

Year

Mil

lio

n t

on

nes

7

Fish Utilization

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006

OtherFEEDFOOD

Food uses

Feed

Per capita food fish supply (kg)

13

13.5

14

14.5

15

15.5

16

16.5

98 99 00 01 02 03

Kg/year

World

World - excluding China

9

Per caput food supply (est)

Kg/year 2005 2006 2007 2007/06

Food fish

16.4 16.7 16.7 0

Capture 9.0 8.9 8.5 -4.3%

Farmed 7.4 7.8 8.1 3.3%

10

Fish in overall protein supply

11

World aquaculture production: growing quickly

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1950 1953 1956 1959 1962 1965 1968 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007

AquacultureMillions of tonnes

aquaculture

12

Aquaculture producers

ChinaIndiaVietNamIndonesiaThailandBangladeshJapanChileNorwayRest

China

13

Global Aquaculture Production

Rest of World

Asia

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Year

Pro

duct

ion

quan

tity

(ton

ne x

10

6 )

China vs Rest of Asia

Rest of Asia

China

0

20

40

60

1950 1970 1990Year

Pro

duct

ion

quan

tity

(ton

ne x

10

6)

Asia incl. China

14

WORLD TRADE

15

0

10,000,000

20,000,000

30,000,000

40,000,000

50,000,000

60,000,000

70,000,000

80,000,000

90,000,000

100,000,000

1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006

Developing countriesor areas

Developed countriesor areas

World Fish Trade: Export Value - in 1000 US$ -

developing

developed

16

WORLD FISH EXPORTS US$ 92 BILLION (2007)

• TRADE IS GROWING– + 8 % (2007/06)

• DEVELOPING COUNTRIES– 50 % OF WORLD EXPORTS

• NET EXPORT REVENUES FROM FISHERIES CRUCIAL FOR MANY DEVELOPING COUNTRIES – US$ 25 billion

17

Share of world fisheries production destined to exports

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

1976 1982 1988 1994 2000 2006

Production

Export

Million tonnes (live weight)

18

Share of world fisheries production destined to exports

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006

Export

Production

19

Net exports from developing countries

Figure 28: Net exports of selected agricultural commodities by developing countries

-5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

Fish Coffee Rubber Cocoa Bananas Meat Tea Sugar Rice Tobacco

US$ billions

1984

1994

2004

fish

20

EU (27)26% Indonesia

2%

Russia 2 %

China11%

Thailand6%

USA5%

Canada4%

Chile4%

Norway7%

Viet Nam 4%

Main fish exporters 2007 (value)

21

Main fish importers (2007)

• Japan US$ 12.9 bill. 13.4 %

• US US$ 13.6 bill. 14.2 %

• EU US$ 41.8 bill. 43.5 %

• Total big 3 US$ 68.3 bill. 71.1 %

• Total world US$ 96.0 bill. 100 %

22

Fish market trends• Japan: long-term decline

– high consumption: 65 kg/kaput– imports below 3 million tons in 2007

• USA: long-term growth, soon # 1 country– rising population and consumption /kaput 24 kg

• but weak dollar• consumer confidence falling 2008

• EU: long-term growth: # 1 market – expanding population, stable consumption at 20 kg– rising imports: e.g. catfish from Viet Nam, mussels from Chile

• Latin America– low average consumption, 9 kg per kaput, slow increase– large potential for increase– supply increase must come from aquaculture– growing markets in Brazil, Mexico. – for Chile’s salmon exports, Latin America is now a larger market than the EU

23

ISSUES OF IMPACT

Imports and exports of fish and fishery products: China

01

23

45

67

89

10

76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06

US$ billlion

Surplus

Imports

Exports

25

Some recent data from Some recent data from ChinaChina

26

27

28

29

Seafood Consumption - Seafood Consumption - ChinaChina

30

Protein Consumption - Protein Consumption - ChinaChina

31

The next China: Viet Nam

• 2007: Nr 8 of world exporters

– but a growing importer as well

• reprocessing

• domestic consumption

32

Commodity prices

• fish versus other food

33

34

35

Some fish prices

Salmon - In Europe, origin: Norw ay

2.02.53.03.54.04.55.05.56.0

Jan-

03A

pr-0

3Ju

l-03

Oct

-03

Jan-

04A

pr-0

4Ju

l-04

Oct

-04

Jan-

05A

pr-0

5Ju

l-05

Oct

-05

Jan-

06A

pr-0

6Ju

l-06

Oct

-06

Jan-

07A

pr-0

7Ju

l-07

Oct

-07

Jan-

08

Fresh, gutted, head-on, 3-5 kg/pcEuro/kg

€ 3.65

2.002.503.003.504.00

Jan-

03A

pr-0

3Ju

l-03

Oct

-03

Jan-

04A

pr-0

4Ju

l-04

Oct

-04

Jan-

05A

pr-0

5Ju

l-05

Oct

-05

Jan-

06A

pr-0

6Ju

l-06

Oct

-06

Jan-

07A

pr-0

7Ju

l-07

Oct

-07

Jan-

08

Fillet block, P BO, deepskinnedUS$/kg

US$ 3.65

Hake (Merluccius gayi) - in Europe, origin: ChileAlaska pollack* and Surimi** *In Europe, origin: USA/Russian Federation; **In France

1.01.52.02.53.0

J A J O J A J O J A J O J A J O J A J O J

Block P BO,FASStick 250gr/pc

Euro/kg

€ 2.54

€ 1.50

Turbot - In Spain, origin: Spain

7.08.09.0

10.011.012.013.014.0

Jan-

03A

pr-0

3Ju

l-03

Oct

-03

Jan-

04A

pr-0

4Ju

l-04

Oct

-04

Jan-

05A

pr-0

5Ju

l-05

Oct

-05

Jan-

06A

pr-0

6Ju

l-06

Oct

-06

Jan-

07A

pr-0

7Ju

l-07

Oct

-07

Jan-

08

Fresh - whole, cultured 1-2 kg/pcEuro/kg

€ 9.65

36

FUTURE FISH PRICES ?

• DEMAND: slowly rising– because of population growth– small underlying increase in per kaput consumption

• SUPPLY– capture: stable, not increasing– aquaculture: increasing but declining growth

• PRICE IMPACT ?– most probably slightly higher fish prices but not much– price cycles in commodity markets– industry profitability through product development, technological

innovation and cost reduction

37

Fish Pool Forward prices        Fresh Salmon 3-6 kg FCA Oslo

38

TRADE CONTEXT

• 152 countries now in WTO– Russia is ready to join 2008/2009– China joined 2001, Viet Nam in 2007

• WTO: RULES BASED SYSTEM– tariffs– market access (SPS/TBT)– dispute resolution

• Doha Round: 2001 - ?– market access (tariffs)– fisheries subsidies

• Regional and bilateral trade agreements– proliferation– regional trade areas, like EU. – Asia ?

39

AQUACULTURE FUTURE

• fastest growing food producing sector in the world• accounts for almost 50% of the global food fish• 53 million tons of fish produced worth US$ 75

billion (2007)• Given the projected population growth, an

additional 40 million tons of aquatic food needed by 2030 to maintain current per caput consumption.

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

18.019

70

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

Per c

aput

sup

ply

(kg)

Fromcapturefisheries

Fromaquaculture

capture

aquaculture

2005 2015 2030

41

CONCLUSIONS

• Fish has always been a globalised commodity– but of higher importance for developing countries than

most other commodities• Fish production is increasing, but only thanks to

aquaculture: 50% share in 2008 in food fish• Fish trade is increasing: € 100 billion in 2008 ?• Fish trade: big 3 import 71 % but in decline• Outsourcing of production and of processing• Rise of China and Viet Nam, and Russia• Future: India ?

42

THANK YOU