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41-50 8.1224 9.9563 15. 12931
i51-60 6.7465 5.7151 14.1816
54-63 8.2784 6.0241 14.1200II
41-63 8.5664 8.5778; 15.01691
@. ;ft iJi.aa
I23.28228.69381
I12.3351! 7.4784
I10.017517.1280
112.56321
14.9559
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gtilit;p*jH~~If:l:!B!iX* 0 ~~.~Mt~Hi~;Jl{t¥J'r~~;mJt ' K~ffij{f~tE••~;RnX:
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5255
9957 62
9856
6lJ 63
97 61
9659
ss51 58.
94
90
89
50 60 70 80 90 100 no 120
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( 2 )
130 ]40
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198.40' njjft.B';Wr+U·!jtj{t'l , !.tlR;m{t!J?JmB.&.i'jH'l~!J?J{Itt~Jlt5t1.JiJ~ 213.85 ~
217 .109'€!:203 .93 0 (ii) ::E11§~}illil.~~-;'1'.E~)ti:i·~{fr~G;tt~~7E~fJ,tlt1tfili!J?J~~
7( 0 -ft<Michaely ~f,f.7E2::AiltUiE*'1~ ) 1tti5~~:E~iri:ifufjHt10. 2878 'iffi".B::m-t~!/tJfJi ' ~b!;m-1;J!fJj~ , n'JJ1i~tJJft'i~~.~tlt1{~f§'l/!'>(z::t'f~'i£tJUJt5t'i]1j~8. 7700 ~ 7.6085, 6.7823J1F!7.2735 0 mJ!:t"pJm' 1fitrHlt~EJliI$*;lf,:1f-;fmMr&mtMi#\l{Ji~M;fI't;H:H'M::t'~ '~t¥Jfiifm "Filli IT,tEgrz 0
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2::A*m-~ G:J:=:) 0 J~2::Afif~mJiNiif1't~fk~*tJj r.:Igrz6i',f.tU1't~~VJt'i9liff1t )tt-~A1mr :
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1lVJf£nt-ft< Michaely 1EiJlt1:iJ5t1iX=:'~0:(i)~OC~~~ (extreme instability
) ;If,:1~ Michaely tl1'.l:m~20~J:~, (ii)*'it~~'J:E (substantial instability
( 3 )
- 4 -
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<¥ 5J1J I :'§~~ I ~m~ I~mM 14IIriPm.~ 1 1~¥JJf{im~~ !l1&J{ijli'~ 4o/J{JU~~ 111&J{IH~~
90. 501 91. 551I
50 90.90
1
93.46 91.61
51 82. 601 87.17
1
91.48] 95.70 94.40I
52 92.86 93.75 93.68.
97·"1100.50
53 100.65) 98.77l 96. 421
97.56 102.98
54 101. 77/ 97.751
97.12 97.56 98.20I
55 99.36 99. 861 99. 63i 99.54 99.64I
56 98.87\ 102.38 103.25' 10290
1
102.16I 1
57 I 111. si: 107.57, 108.63i
110.96 105.19I
I\ I
58 I 101.65 104.78 110.84 116.55 104.94I
109.541 113.461 120.77159
I100.79: 107.79
I I114.94
160 114.81! 112.771 124. 121 107.93
I I61 I 122.36 119.00 121.61, 127.84: 112.75I ] II I
62 135.091 141.99 143.68 138.271 138.52I I I I
63 I 198.40 213.85. 217.10\ 203.93\ 194.72I I
I I I I6. 78231M.I I 10. 2878i 8.7700 7.6085 7.2735
I I ImBjI: M.I:Michaely ::Ff!l£j~lk
~».I : ~e;54-56&f.=lOO}';fN*~ : (l):'§~~{JHMi<l!l~iIt~*l:ltffl] , ~tI!J.Lilil@.:ft*£iltf~x 0 .
(2).~!iJT~ , FJi'MI1&J{lHrtf( , IHrf¥JJ{i1~~ : r,ll1~* "TaiwanStatistical Data Book" 1975
(3)1lBmi1ift~lf'!iJ{i1~~ : fjjfj(~±.rr~ , I !JiM:?:m?fitI!Jtt!l[;w;<1tJJ{IUJc~j')j
tfto
) ';l!jti Michaely fB~1rn~lO~20zl1:\j, (iii)~[!1l~W7£ (slight instability
) ,WJ Michaely mtztEIOQCF 0 tEff}rb'~7ij!¥Jj{*5j-rp , !z1]rx~prtW£ffijjjt!fj;J~f-l
·U~ i!ffl~J:3t~~,1I1y , ;J'tmffj'J'il:!'t~ ~:.~*F {[i1[1:t1tiJt:.*: ' "Ill!ljJ~ ~[llR~j R~~ll~bf)1. Z<. '@.~l:pJ~;l!$ffl~lif&~(f.JJl~TiTIAA~'l!i; 0 lZS:I~tf!e:ffl Michaely ~mJJfBf,{*ffr
;ll[!fj;Jm~~If!f~~ifti!!!.?tJJ~ifJ!'!9f1]Rifi0 ffiHt Michaely U:r·irEffl Von-Neumann
ratio !¥JH~1}:i\;*~fIfj~1}:i\;(t':J(rJ:~5 CjttEj 0 Von-Neumann ratio Ij(;F.tZif.
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~z~~fi~o~~~~*~T:eDg":f::~~~ftM~%~a~~m.'~
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f~Ji!lfJltlt I ~~jjI(t?t I ~~jjI(tltJjIJ HJ1f1::m'i : lttt!lfJltil-I
JtijFEl1~ 1 M ~ M ~I C'1l1t) c~m) Clff1l0 I c~m).......!
41-50 3.2789 3.98751I
12. 42141
4.5786 9.85766.55331
50-60 6.6633 8. 52241 6.59891
6.7931 3.2113 4.7305I
14.57501
57-63 11.2083 12.8533 7.0700 3.9550 10.9300
41-63 9.2673 7.7609 6. 75411 11. 15911 3.9205 8.5786
f,t'jSf*imi : ;fHJ!ltT3'Jj~*",1it~jjij~
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:it< 2 • 3 ~~-'f:#f4:.@Jll~m~ , }HJU/f~;f~j£;L.mtlj£: Michaely flrfj:C~II5&-63&f.)
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8.8162
1
' 7.6972 6.5246 6.3333, 4.9288 5.2839
'9.1547 -: 3. 3313! 2.87311 2.63491 2.3817I i I
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ir,g 0 rft:7~ , 1'J(;jP9f!:J-*r:pjH'PiJ1iD ' ~i+J2Jiij,~4~zjf}'f{~:tt~t~!Jiirjji6HiJt}!tf/l}{1"i
:tG:FmWi 0 @:1f::~:m.l2J,~f/l}ifl~m*~i¥J~Jm{mitfTu:=rh~~' , Jt{lHt~1f1I;z:::j'~
~JuvJtLJ:'!-<:{.f£ 0 ~:l'!!:!~m-:k3&~:~1!imt1-1G.'i!~'Hf;{i:~liJ:r(;)i~ii}JjrrlH!(':FtJi:f[!J ' jI't{*
ES~~~m~'!f;tfJ<m@'r4:m:l& 0
:;J< 2 • 4~i!t-'€#f~t:j~~~m:4'-/f~f$):£zmlj}:E : Von-Neumann lt~
~~ ~IJ II ;g;~m* Iff~tEiBr I i1'BlH{f!f~ : ltJ-1!l~~ I ~tti~,f!t I~~~;ftM ~,M ~ t M 1!i: I C1fl'!) I (:It'\t) ! (jill'!) (:It'1t')
---~;-50 I 0.3571 0.35711 0.87771 0.22551
2.0806; 0.1836
50-60 0.2016 0.1486. I. 5211, 0.9790 0.5342, 0.1910
57-63 0.8174[ 0.8862
1
1 2.4290i 0.7654: 1.5723
1
' 0.6655
41-63 I 0. 11161 0.46111
1.60551 0.19661
0.5707 0.1285
j1'ffl*~: 1EJ~2 • 2 0
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S(P t)=A+aP t +U t a~O (4·4)
D(Pt)=B-bPt+V t b~O (4·5)
:i:tl:f:lSt:lW1f;JU;;s' n, 7&'~';1i~' Pt~7'~WH1"U~' A, B' a , b1i§'~'W;t'~, 'rio U ttfit v , ~*7S~11J1JIH\j~jf'[i*:~~J]i' ~1W~aI:1JEf3;t-'2J(§]n-illj,'ffif!~_A (first-order
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Vt=P2Vt_l+elt -1<P2<1 (4·7)
J:t1:j:l~Jli{ el t 'e2t 'tPI5.:t~!A&~J,~'~~~ a 2e1 , a3e 2 ZEi.~~t':z (Covar
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iTi.i;t{ffit-j~h:rf;'j iTf11m
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( 17 )
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J&J:\: (4-4) ~rt (4-5) ff:1ffiWJfrli , 1[}
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(4·13)
1f'.= S~:S(P')dP' (4.14)
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w, =1f'. -1f' t = S~ :SCP')dP' (4.15)
illJ:\: (4-4) ttAJ:i\;' ~~:OO~"J
Wp= -HP.-ptJCSCPt)+SCP.)]ctJJ:\: (4-8) (4-9) (4-11) ~J:\: (4-12) tI:AJ:i\;i·\}
Wp= _l[Yt-lLt_JC~(Ab+Ba)+C~p+a)U t_+ aV.!] (4-16)a+b a+b a+b
t§f,Jj R'D' ill nH1t~~J Wf-*iWmm:t~:§:(E5ifii~m r·J¥JWIilf.1J ' -'§}:ilJH~
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45 -19,765 -18,563
46 - 6,495 - 7,180
47 25,140 21,996
48· -31,965 -12,206
49 -74,115 -52,358
50 -56,051 -33,064
51 -22,509 -14,530
52 -48,296 -30,124
53 -55,115 -31,103
54 -38,959 -22,729
55 - 4,212 1,211
56 37,680 32,323
'5l 13,762 16,164
58 52,584 26,415
59 99,899 71,310
60 78,952 60,861
61 64,337 40,751
62 67,912 43,762
63 -82,747 -92,934
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45 -6,049 13,374 7,325
46 9,204 -18,586 -9,382
47 99,000 -203,699 ~104,699
48 -38,259 360,874 322,615
49 826,468 "-1,084;995 -258,527
50 470,666 -377,857 92,809
51 -57 ,481 167,750 110,269
52 267,588 -184,782 82,806
53 514,683 -354,705 159,978
54 104,622 78,963 183,585
55 -150,053 325,115 175,062
56 370,048 -724,734 -354,686
57 -124,444 252,582 128,138
58 2,093,645 -3,771,632 -1,677,987
59 3,736,353 -7,306,321 -3,569,968
60 2,294,732 -4,413,754 -2,119,022
61 2,669,412 .-4,904,947 -2,235; 535-
62 3,133,377 ~5,731;698 -2,593,~'
l)3 -1,289,122 2,795,650' 1,506,~'
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a- : Economic Planning Council, Taiwan Statistical Data Book, 1759,
Executive yuan, p. 52.
ll=:~~~~~.'~~*~~=W~~~~~~~~~E~o
B!=:::' : Michaely M., Concentration in International Trade, Amsterdam,
1962, pp. 68-69.
B!1lQ : UNCTD, The Development of an International Commodity,
Policy, New Delhi, 1968, pp. 16-17.
ali : Ji!. Michaely M. p, 94.
ittr: : ~m1~?&:Z1R ' ::JtQt Massell, Tisdell ~ Turnovsky ~AJ!~ft~ Q
a-t: ~ (4·6) ~rt (4·7) ~~~.
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- 28-
1. Blandford D. and Currie J. M., Price Uncertainty-the Case for
Government Intervention, Journal of Agricultural Economics,
January 1975, pp. 37-62.
2. Berch Karl Henrik, The Economics of Uncertainty, Princeton,
New Jersey, 1972.
3. Houck James P., Some Economic Aspects of Agricultural Regu
lation and Stabilization, American Journal of Agrfeultural
Economics, December 1974, pp. 1113-1124.
4. Howell L. D., Does the Consumer Benefit from Price Instability,
Quarterly Journal of Economics, February 1945, pp. 287-295.
5. Kennedy G. and Candler W. , Price Stabilization through Deficiency
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1975, pp. 15-27.
6. Martin Evans, Guaranteed Price Adjustment and Market Stability
in the United Kingdom: The Case of Beef and Milk, American
Journal of Agricultural Economics, February 1974. pp. 26-37.
7. Massell Benton F., Price Stabilization and Welfare, Quarterly
Journal of Economics, May 1969, pp. 284-298.
8. Oi W. y., The Desirability of Price Instability under Perfecl
Competitton, Econometrica, January 1961, pp. 58-64.
9. Richardson R. A. and Farris P. L., Farm Commodity Price
Stabilization through Furures Market, American Journal of
Agricultural Economics, May 1973, pp. 225-230.
10. Tisdell C. A., Uncertainty, Instability, Expected Profit,
Econometr-ica, Vol. 31, No. 1-2 (January-April, 1963), pp.
243-247.
11. Tisdell C. A., The Theory of Price Uncertainty, Production
and Profit, Princeton, New Jersey, 1968.
12. Turnovsky Stephen]., Price Expectations and the Welfare Gains
from Price Stabilization. American Journal of Agricultural Econ
omics, November 1974, pp. 706-716.
13. Waugh F. V., Does theConsumer Benefit from Price Instability?
Quarterly Journal of Economics, August 1944, pp, 602-614.
( 28 )
-29 -
14. Wegge L. L., Sosnick S. H. and George P. S., The Effect of
Price Stabilization on Consumer's Welfare, Western Journal
of Economics, September 1971, pp. 289-298.
15. Zucker Albert, On the Desirability of Price Instability: An
Extension of the Discussion, Econometrica, Vol. 33. No. 2(April,
1965), pp. 437-441.
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