The Two Giants: Energy Policy in China and the United States

Gilley: Authoritarian vs. Democratic Environmentalism

Authoritarian –concentrates authority in few executive agencies manned by capable and uncorrupt elites seeking to improve environmental outcomes

Democratic--spreads authority over several levels and agencies of government, including representative legislatures, and that encourages direct public participation from a wide cross-section of society

Gilley: Authoritarian Environmentalism in China

“Citizen participation is limited to learning and obeying state policies.” p. 291

China – energy governance National Development and Reform

Commission (NDRC) -primary policymaking and regulatory authority in the energy sector,

National Energy Administration (NEA) (formed 2008) key energy regulator for the country approves new energy projects sets domestic wholesale energy prices implements central government's energy policies,

National Energy Commission (formed 2010) – coordinate energy policy among the various agencies under the State Council

China’s boom

Average annual growth rate 2000-10: 10%

From 1990 to 2009, moved from net exporter of oil to world’s second largest net importer

World’s largest producer and consumer of coal –46% world’s coal consumption

US still 2x net oil importer

China – National Oil Companies China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) leading upstream player in China

publicly-listed arm PetroChina, together account for roughly 60 % domestic oil

and 80% natural gas output China Petroleum and Chemical Corporation

(Sinopec) downstream activities (refining and distribution)

 China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC): offshore oil exploration and production

China - Coal

Oil, Coal consumption – US v China

COAL

US 2010 – 1.0 billion short tons (flat or declining)

China 2010 – 3.7 billion short tons (rising)

OIL

US 2010 – 19.1 million bpd

China 2010 – 9.4 million bpd

Renewable share in electricity – US v China

CHINA

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US

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China GHG trends

Rank

Country

Annual CO2 emissions[7][8]

(in thousands of metric tonnes)

Percentage of global total

 World 29,888,121 100%1  China[9] 7,031,916 23.33%2  United States 5,461,014 18.11%

-  European Union (27) 4,177,817 [10] 14.04%

3  India 1,742,698 5.78%4  Russia 1,708,653 5.67%5  Japan 1,208,163 4.01%6  Germany 786,660 2.61%7  Canada 544,091 1.80%

Per capita:

China: 4.6 tonnes/capita

US: 19.1 tonnes/capita

Projections are that by 2030 China will account for ½ global

2008 emissions

China GHG policy

Reduce emission intensity of GDP 40-45% by 2020 (over 2005 levels)

At Durban , China agreed to negotiate a legally binding treaty (including the possibility of an absolute emission cap) by 2020

Does authoritarian work?

Can produce a rapid response to problem

But if fragmentation remains, can undermine implementation due to illegitimacy

Low social concern makes authoritarianism more necessary and more difficult

2009 State of Union: To truly transform our economy, protect our security, and save our planet from the ravages of climate change, ne need to ultimately make clean, renewable energy the profitable kind of energy

US governance

Federalism: gives extensive powers to 50 states

Separation of powers Congress▪ 2 equal chambers▪ House – 435 seat elected every 2 years▪ Senate – 2 seats per state elected every 6

years President – elected separately every 4

years Courts

US governance: extraordinary majorities

House: 50% +1 Senate: effective majority is 60% Treaties: 2/3rd of Senate requires President needs to sign laws passed

by Congress If president vetos, 2/3rd of both

houses can overturn

US governance: extraordinary majorities

Congress and president same party: working majority is 60%

Congress and president different party: working majority is 67%

Note contrast to Canada, China

Party Balance in Congress - Obama

2009 House: 257 D 178 R 2009 Senate: 58 D 40 R 2 I

Party Balance in House - Obama

2011 House: 193 D 242 R (55.6%)

Party Balance in Senate - Obama

2011 Senate: 51 D 47 R 2 I

Automobile efficiency standard 2001 – US cars

and trucks averaged 24.7 m.p.g.

2011 --29.6 m.p.g. New regs: up to 55

m.p.g. by 2025 Obama weekly

address

Nov 2011, Canada announced it would attempt to meet US 2025 targets

But unclear whether by regulation or voluntary

March 20, 2012 Sustainable Energy Policy 23

Climate Legislation - federal 2009 – House passes Waxman-Markey

17% reduction by 2020 Riddled with concession

2010 Senate Coalition building required giving everything

away Coalition of senators fell apart when initiative got

framed as “gas tax” “on climate change, Obama grew timid and gave

up, leaving the dysfunctional Senate to figure out the issue on its own”

Personal impact

State initiatives: renewables

As of April 2011, 32 states have RPS or Alternative Energy Portfolio Standards; another six have voluntary standards (Pew Centre on Global Climate Change, 2011)

California most aggressive

State initiatives - GHG

California leadership Western Climate Initiative

Reflections on Two Giants