Young People in the Highlands and Islands

Ruth SimeInnovation and Skills

Outline

• The HIE area

• Demographics of the HIE area

• Outline of the study

• Key findings

• Policy recommendations

• In the words of young people

H.I.E. Area

Distance fromInverness to Lerwick

Milan and Lerwick

equidistant from London

The Highlands & Islands• 51% of the landmass of Scotland• 9% (460,000) of the Scottish

population• Only one settlement of over 25,000

- Inverness• Population growing similar to the

Scottish rate – but not everywhere• Employment rate (80%) ahead of

the Scottish figure• Unemployment rate below Scottish

and UK averages• Productivity below Scottish level

and low average incomes

Population

Source: GROS Census

300

320

340

360

380

400

420

440

460

480

500

Po

pu

lati

on

(0

00

s)

Aspirations

A growing population in

every part of the area

A more diverse employment

base

Higher incomes in real terms

World-rated attractiveness of natural and built

environments

And an open-arms approach to attracting people – an international shop window for Scotland

The Issue – The “Missing 18500”

If the Highlands and Islands had the same age structure as Scotland, there would be 18500 (25%) more young people in the 15 to 30 age group.

Gender Split 11840 women, 6660 men

Net Migration by Age

-800

-700

-600

-500

-400

-300

-200

-100

0

100

200

0 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36 40 44 48 52 56 60 64 68 72 76 80 84 88 92 96

average 2002-2007

Highlands and Islands (HIE area)

Source:General Register Office for Scotland

Ref: P219/H&Ipro/avemigcht

Cummulative Net Migration by Age in theHighlands and Islands Sub Regions

-0.6%

-0.4%

-0.2%

0.0%

0.2%

0.4%

0.6%

0.8%

1.0%

0 3 7 11 15 19 23 27 31 35 39 43 47 51 55 59 63 67 71 75 79 83 87 91 95 99

Cu

mula

tive ne

t m

igrati

on t

o t

he

area a

s

a p

erce

nta

ge o

f to

tal po

pula

tion of

the a

re

a

Age (years)

Cumulative net migration by age:regions of the Highlands and Islands

Highlands and I slands

Argyll and the I slands

Caithness and Sutherland

Innse Gall

I nner Moray Firth

Lochaber, Skye and Wester RossMoray

Orkney

Shetland

Interpretation:

A positive figure at any given age means that more people up to that age have entered the area than left it since birth. A negative figure indicates more have left than entered.

In age ranges where the curve slopes upwards there is net in-migration. In those where it slopes downwards there is net out- migration. The steeper the curve, the higher the rate.

Where there is a corner in the curve the rate of migration changes. Where there is a peak or a valley the net direction of migration changes.

Source: General Register Office for Scotland and DREAM®people. Based on an average of figures for the period 2002 to 2007.

Ref: Z\Data\Popn\DreamPeople\H&Ipro\cummig% cht

Cummulative Net Migration in Challenge Areas

-0.4%

-0.2%

0.0%

0.2%

0.4%

0.6%

0.8%

0 3 7 11 15 19 23 27 31 35 39 43 47 51 55 59 63 67 71 75 79 83 87 91 95 99

Cu

mula

tive n

et

mig

rati

on t

o t

he a

rea a

sa p

erc

enta

ge o

f to

tal popula

tion o

f th

e a

rea

Age (years)

Cumulative net migration by age in challenge areas

Highlands and I slands

Fragile areas

Areas of employment deficit

Interpretation:

A positive figure at any given age means that more people up to that age have entered the area than left it since birth. A negative figure indicates more have left than entered.

In age ranges where the curve slopes upwards there is net in-migration. In those where it slopes downwards there is net out- migration. The steeper the curve, the higher the rate.

Where there is a corner in the curve the rate of migration changes. Where there is a peak or a valley the net direction of migration changes.

Source: General Register Office for Scotland and DREAM®people. Based on an average of figures for the period 2002 to 2007.

Ref: Z\Data\Popn\DreamPeople\H&Ipro\challengecummig% cht

Cummulative Net Migration – Edinburgh

Migration cumulated by age- average

-1000

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

0 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36 40 44 48 52 56 60 64 68 72 76 80 84 88 92 96

AgeAverage 2001-2006

Edinburgh Council Area

15-30 Year Old Population Trends

0.65

0.70

0.75

0.80

0.85

0.90

0.95

1.00

1.05

1.10

1.15

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

2017

2019

2021

2023

2025

2027

2029

2031

Inde

x 20

01 =

1.0

0

Inner Moray Firth

Lochaber, Skye andWester Ross

Moray

Orkney

Shetland

Innse Gall

Argyll and the Isles

Caithness andSutherland

Highlands andIslands

Source:General Register Office for Scotland

Ref: Z\Data\Popn\DreamPeople\H&Ipro\subreg1530cht

Population Distribution

4000 3000 2000 1000 1000 2000 3000 4000

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100+

Bars show Dumfries & Galloway population Lines show Scottish population pro rata

Source: General Register Office for Scotland, © Crown copyright 2007

Ref

: Z:\P

roje

cts\

p219

\H&

Itree

.xls

\H&

Itree

100

Gender and age distribution in the Highlands and Islands 2007

females males

Bars show the Highlands and Islands population. Blue lines show Scottish population pro rata

Comparing “Fragile” to Urban Areas

650 550 450 350 250 150 50 50 150 250 350 450 550 650

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100+

Bars show Dumfries & Galloway population Lines show Scottish population pro rata

Source: General Register Office for Scotland, © Crown copyright 2007

Ref

: Z:\D

ATA

\Pop

n\D

RE

AM

Peo

ple\

Frag

ilepr

o.xl

s\Fr

agile

tree

100

Gender and age distribution in the fragile areas 2007

females males

Bars show the fragile areas population. Blue lines show Scottish population pro rata and red lines show Highlands and Islands population pro rata.

7000 5000 3000 1000 1000 3000 5000 7000

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100+

Bars show Dumfries & Galloway population Lines show Scottish population pro rata

Source: General Register Office for Scotland, © Crown copyright 2007

Ref

: Z:\D

ATA

\Pop

n\D

RE

AM

Peo

ple\

Man

ches

terp

ropr

o.xl

s\M

anch

este

rtree

100

Gender and age distribution in Manchester 2007

females males

Bars show the Manchester population. Blue lines show North West population pro rata and red lines show England population pro rata.

2061 (36%)

1371 (34%)1963 (33%)

873 (27%)

632 (16%)

4703 (19%)

2826 (19%)

4118 (40%)

Young Person Population Gap: Increase in 15-30 Population needed to Fill Youth

Population Gap

Objectives of the Study

• Find out more about the attitudes of young people about living, studying and working in the Highlands and Islands

• Look at the factors that influence migration

• Identify appropriate initiatives

• A baseline for future comparisons

Responses

H&I Responses

1500 school pupils, 1670 young adults, 300 young adults living in other parts of the UK

Gender

Female 60% Male 40%

Online focus groups

Three policy group meetings

Perceptions

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Plenty of job opportunities

A place only suited to retired people

A place which values its young people

A place where it's OK to be different

A boring place in which to live

A good place to live as a teenager

Few opportunities to access universityand college courses

There are few jobs which pay well

A place where everyone knows mybusiness

A place where I want to live for the restof my life

A place I am proud to be associatedwith

A place where I feel safe

A good place to bring up a family

Strongly agree Slightly agree Neither agree nor disagree Slightly disagree Strongly disagree Don't knowZ:\PROJECTS\P219 HIE youth migration\

SNAPanalysis2\CommunityTotal.xls

Community Total Summary

2768 respondents

Positive Perceptions

• Proud to be associated with the area (H&I - 72%, Islands – 80%, Fragile areas – 78%)

• A good place to bring up a family (H&I - 82%, I – 90%, F – 87%)

• A place where I feel safe (H&I -80%, I – 91%, F – 93%)

• A place where I want to live for the rest of my life (H&I - 53%, I – 57%, F – 65%)

• A good place to live as a teenager (H&I - 50%, I – 57%, F – 51%)

• A place that values its young people (H&I - 31%, I – 39%, F – 41%)

• Plenty of job opportunities (H&I – 28%, Islands – 27%, Fragile areas – 25%)

• Few jobs that pay well (H&I – 56%, I- 59%, F – 61%)

• Access to university and college courses (H&I 52%, I – 50%, F – 47%

• A place where it’s OK to be different (H&I – 35%, I – 27%, F, - 36%)

• A place where everyone knows my business (H&I - 56%, I – 74%, F – 74%)

Less Positive Perceptions

Perceptions – Variations across Region

Argyll and ButeFewer job opportunities

Lower levels of tolerance

More suited to retired people and less suited to young people

OrkneyA good place to live as a young

person or with a family, with value placed on young people

Stronger affinity to the area

Better job prospects, but few which pay well

ShetlandBetter job prospects

Stronger affinity to the area

More suited to retired people and less suited to young people

Caithness and Sutherland

Fewer job opportunities

A good place to grow up in

Innse GallPoor economic opportunities

Much stronger affinity to the area

Lower level of tolerance of differences

Value their young people and teenager and family

friendly

Inner Moray FirthMore suited to young people

Less safe

Better paying jobs

MorayWeaker affinity with the area

Better access to educational opportunities

Less value placed on young people and less family and

teenager friendly

Lochaber, Skye and Wester Ross

Less suited to the needs of young people, but a good place

to live later in life

Very safe and relatively tolerant

Highlands and Islands

P219/snap analysis 2/areas/comparison areas/LEC area comparisons/pp comparison slide

Perceptions by age: training and employment

opportunities in the Highlands and Islands

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30

Age of respondent

% a

gre

ein

g w

ith

sta

tem

en

t

Few jobs which paywell

Few opportunities toaccess university andcollege courses

Plenty of jobopportunities

Ref: P219/SNAPanalysis2/age difference/singleyear age/cht econ 3yr avg

Figures shown are a three year moving average of the proportion agreeing with each statement as an accurate way to describe their home community in the Highlands and Islands

Perceptions by Age: Young People’s Experiences of Life in the H&I

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30

Age of respondent

% a

gre

ein

g w

ith

sta

tem

en

t

A place I am proud to beassociated with

A place where I feel safe

A place where everyoneknows my business

A place where it's OK tobe different

A place which values itsyoung people

A boring place in which tolive

Ref: P219/SNAPanalysis2/age difference/singleyear age/cht experiences 3yravg

Figures shown are a three year moving average of the proportion agreeing with each statement as an accurate way to describe their home community in the Highlands and Islands

Predicted location of school pupils in the future

Where Highlands and Islands school pupils think they will be living in the future

Highlands and Islands

Elsewhere in Scotland

Outside Scotland

Immediately after leaving school 55% 40% 6%When 25 years old 28% 50% 22%When 35 years old 32% 37% 31%When 50 years old 42% 30% 28%After retirement 54% 19% 26%

Numbers shown exclude 'no reply' Ref: P219\SnapAnalysis2\SchoolPupils\SchoolPupils.xls\q135

Top 10 Factors” in Retention and Attraction of Young People

• Wider Higher Education curriculum available within H&I and development of associated facilities

• Broader range of jobs• More jobs with better career prospects opportunities,

including self employment• More higher paid jobs available• New emerging employment opportunities in relevant

industries• Easier access to affordable housing• More recreation/social opportunities• Cheaper transport links• Faster transport links• Greater electronic connectivity

Policy Responses

• Engagement

• Education

• Employment

• Environment

Effective Intervention

• All agencies recognise importance of demographic imbalance

• Alignment of public, private and third sectors

• Further liaison with young people to identify messages and effective communication channels

http://www.hie.co.uk/youth-migration.htm