young people in the highlands and islands ruth sime innovation and skills
TRANSCRIPT
Young People in the Highlands and Islands
Ruth SimeInnovation and Skills
Outline
• The HIE area
• Demographics of the HIE area
• Outline of the study
• Key findings
• Policy recommendations
• In the words of young people
H.I.E. Area
Distance fromInverness to Lerwick
Milan and Lerwick
equidistant from London
The Highlands & Islands• 51% of the landmass of Scotland• 9% (460,000) of the Scottish
population• Only one settlement of over 25,000
- Inverness• Population growing similar to the
Scottish rate – but not everywhere• Employment rate (80%) ahead of
the Scottish figure• Unemployment rate below Scottish
and UK averages• Productivity below Scottish level
and low average incomes
Population
Source: GROS Census
300
320
340
360
380
400
420
440
460
480
500
Po
pu
lati
on
(0
00
s)
Aspirations
A growing population in
every part of the area
A more diverse employment
base
Higher incomes in real terms
World-rated attractiveness of natural and built
environments
And an open-arms approach to attracting people – an international shop window for Scotland
The Issue – The “Missing 18500”
If the Highlands and Islands had the same age structure as Scotland, there would be 18500 (25%) more young people in the 15 to 30 age group.
Gender Split 11840 women, 6660 men
Net Migration by Age
-800
-700
-600
-500
-400
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
0 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36 40 44 48 52 56 60 64 68 72 76 80 84 88 92 96
average 2002-2007
Highlands and Islands (HIE area)
Source:General Register Office for Scotland
Ref: P219/H&Ipro/avemigcht
Cummulative Net Migration by Age in theHighlands and Islands Sub Regions
-0.6%
-0.4%
-0.2%
0.0%
0.2%
0.4%
0.6%
0.8%
1.0%
0 3 7 11 15 19 23 27 31 35 39 43 47 51 55 59 63 67 71 75 79 83 87 91 95 99
Cu
mula
tive ne
t m
igrati
on t
o t
he
area a
s
a p
erce
nta
ge o
f to
tal po
pula
tion of
the a
re
a
Age (years)
Cumulative net migration by age:regions of the Highlands and Islands
Highlands and I slands
Argyll and the I slands
Caithness and Sutherland
Innse Gall
I nner Moray Firth
Lochaber, Skye and Wester RossMoray
Orkney
Shetland
Interpretation:
A positive figure at any given age means that more people up to that age have entered the area than left it since birth. A negative figure indicates more have left than entered.
In age ranges where the curve slopes upwards there is net in-migration. In those where it slopes downwards there is net out- migration. The steeper the curve, the higher the rate.
Where there is a corner in the curve the rate of migration changes. Where there is a peak or a valley the net direction of migration changes.
Source: General Register Office for Scotland and DREAM®people. Based on an average of figures for the period 2002 to 2007.
Ref: Z\Data\Popn\DreamPeople\H&Ipro\cummig% cht
Cummulative Net Migration in Challenge Areas
-0.4%
-0.2%
0.0%
0.2%
0.4%
0.6%
0.8%
0 3 7 11 15 19 23 27 31 35 39 43 47 51 55 59 63 67 71 75 79 83 87 91 95 99
Cu
mula
tive n
et
mig
rati
on t
o t
he a
rea a
sa p
erc
enta
ge o
f to
tal popula
tion o
f th
e a
rea
Age (years)
Cumulative net migration by age in challenge areas
Highlands and I slands
Fragile areas
Areas of employment deficit
Interpretation:
A positive figure at any given age means that more people up to that age have entered the area than left it since birth. A negative figure indicates more have left than entered.
In age ranges where the curve slopes upwards there is net in-migration. In those where it slopes downwards there is net out- migration. The steeper the curve, the higher the rate.
Where there is a corner in the curve the rate of migration changes. Where there is a peak or a valley the net direction of migration changes.
Source: General Register Office for Scotland and DREAM®people. Based on an average of figures for the period 2002 to 2007.
Ref: Z\Data\Popn\DreamPeople\H&Ipro\challengecummig% cht
Cummulative Net Migration – Edinburgh
Migration cumulated by age- average
-1000
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
0 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36 40 44 48 52 56 60 64 68 72 76 80 84 88 92 96
AgeAverage 2001-2006
Edinburgh Council Area
15-30 Year Old Population Trends
0.65
0.70
0.75
0.80
0.85
0.90
0.95
1.00
1.05
1.10
1.15
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
Inde
x 20
01 =
1.0
0
Inner Moray Firth
Lochaber, Skye andWester Ross
Moray
Orkney
Shetland
Innse Gall
Argyll and the Isles
Caithness andSutherland
Highlands andIslands
Source:General Register Office for Scotland
Ref: Z\Data\Popn\DreamPeople\H&Ipro\subreg1530cht
Population Distribution
4000 3000 2000 1000 1000 2000 3000 4000
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100+
Bars show Dumfries & Galloway population Lines show Scottish population pro rata
Source: General Register Office for Scotland, © Crown copyright 2007
Ref
: Z:\P
roje
cts\
p219
\H&
Itree
.xls
\H&
Itree
100
Gender and age distribution in the Highlands and Islands 2007
females males
Bars show the Highlands and Islands population. Blue lines show Scottish population pro rata
Comparing “Fragile” to Urban Areas
650 550 450 350 250 150 50 50 150 250 350 450 550 650
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100+
Bars show Dumfries & Galloway population Lines show Scottish population pro rata
Source: General Register Office for Scotland, © Crown copyright 2007
Ref
: Z:\D
ATA
\Pop
n\D
RE
AM
Peo
ple\
Frag
ilepr
o.xl
s\Fr
agile
tree
100
Gender and age distribution in the fragile areas 2007
females males
Bars show the fragile areas population. Blue lines show Scottish population pro rata and red lines show Highlands and Islands population pro rata.
7000 5000 3000 1000 1000 3000 5000 7000
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100+
Bars show Dumfries & Galloway population Lines show Scottish population pro rata
Source: General Register Office for Scotland, © Crown copyright 2007
Ref
: Z:\D
ATA
\Pop
n\D
RE
AM
Peo
ple\
Man
ches
terp
ropr
o.xl
s\M
anch
este
rtree
100
Gender and age distribution in Manchester 2007
females males
Bars show the Manchester population. Blue lines show North West population pro rata and red lines show England population pro rata.
2061 (36%)
1371 (34%)1963 (33%)
873 (27%)
632 (16%)
4703 (19%)
2826 (19%)
4118 (40%)
Young Person Population Gap: Increase in 15-30 Population needed to Fill Youth
Population Gap
Objectives of the Study
• Find out more about the attitudes of young people about living, studying and working in the Highlands and Islands
• Look at the factors that influence migration
• Identify appropriate initiatives
• A baseline for future comparisons
Responses
H&I Responses
1500 school pupils, 1670 young adults, 300 young adults living in other parts of the UK
Gender
Female 60% Male 40%
Online focus groups
Three policy group meetings
Perceptions
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Plenty of job opportunities
A place only suited to retired people
A place which values its young people
A place where it's OK to be different
A boring place in which to live
A good place to live as a teenager
Few opportunities to access universityand college courses
There are few jobs which pay well
A place where everyone knows mybusiness
A place where I want to live for the restof my life
A place I am proud to be associatedwith
A place where I feel safe
A good place to bring up a family
Strongly agree Slightly agree Neither agree nor disagree Slightly disagree Strongly disagree Don't knowZ:\PROJECTS\P219 HIE youth migration\
SNAPanalysis2\CommunityTotal.xls
Community Total Summary
2768 respondents
Positive Perceptions
• Proud to be associated with the area (H&I - 72%, Islands – 80%, Fragile areas – 78%)
• A good place to bring up a family (H&I - 82%, I – 90%, F – 87%)
• A place where I feel safe (H&I -80%, I – 91%, F – 93%)
• A place where I want to live for the rest of my life (H&I - 53%, I – 57%, F – 65%)
• A good place to live as a teenager (H&I - 50%, I – 57%, F – 51%)
• A place that values its young people (H&I - 31%, I – 39%, F – 41%)
• Plenty of job opportunities (H&I – 28%, Islands – 27%, Fragile areas – 25%)
• Few jobs that pay well (H&I – 56%, I- 59%, F – 61%)
• Access to university and college courses (H&I 52%, I – 50%, F – 47%
• A place where it’s OK to be different (H&I – 35%, I – 27%, F, - 36%)
• A place where everyone knows my business (H&I - 56%, I – 74%, F – 74%)
Less Positive Perceptions
Perceptions – Variations across Region
Argyll and ButeFewer job opportunities
Lower levels of tolerance
More suited to retired people and less suited to young people
OrkneyA good place to live as a young
person or with a family, with value placed on young people
Stronger affinity to the area
Better job prospects, but few which pay well
ShetlandBetter job prospects
Stronger affinity to the area
More suited to retired people and less suited to young people
Caithness and Sutherland
Fewer job opportunities
A good place to grow up in
Innse GallPoor economic opportunities
Much stronger affinity to the area
Lower level of tolerance of differences
Value their young people and teenager and family
friendly
Inner Moray FirthMore suited to young people
Less safe
Better paying jobs
MorayWeaker affinity with the area
Better access to educational opportunities
Less value placed on young people and less family and
teenager friendly
Lochaber, Skye and Wester Ross
Less suited to the needs of young people, but a good place
to live later in life
Very safe and relatively tolerant
Highlands and Islands
P219/snap analysis 2/areas/comparison areas/LEC area comparisons/pp comparison slide
Perceptions by age: training and employment
opportunities in the Highlands and Islands
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
Age of respondent
% a
gre
ein
g w
ith
sta
tem
en
t
Few jobs which paywell
Few opportunities toaccess university andcollege courses
Plenty of jobopportunities
Ref: P219/SNAPanalysis2/age difference/singleyear age/cht econ 3yr avg
Figures shown are a three year moving average of the proportion agreeing with each statement as an accurate way to describe their home community in the Highlands and Islands
Perceptions by Age: Young People’s Experiences of Life in the H&I
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
Age of respondent
% a
gre
ein
g w
ith
sta
tem
en
t
A place I am proud to beassociated with
A place where I feel safe
A place where everyoneknows my business
A place where it's OK tobe different
A place which values itsyoung people
A boring place in which tolive
Ref: P219/SNAPanalysis2/age difference/singleyear age/cht experiences 3yravg
Figures shown are a three year moving average of the proportion agreeing with each statement as an accurate way to describe their home community in the Highlands and Islands
Predicted location of school pupils in the future
Where Highlands and Islands school pupils think they will be living in the future
Highlands and Islands
Elsewhere in Scotland
Outside Scotland
Immediately after leaving school 55% 40% 6%When 25 years old 28% 50% 22%When 35 years old 32% 37% 31%When 50 years old 42% 30% 28%After retirement 54% 19% 26%
Numbers shown exclude 'no reply' Ref: P219\SnapAnalysis2\SchoolPupils\SchoolPupils.xls\q135
Top 10 Factors” in Retention and Attraction of Young People
• Wider Higher Education curriculum available within H&I and development of associated facilities
• Broader range of jobs• More jobs with better career prospects opportunities,
including self employment• More higher paid jobs available• New emerging employment opportunities in relevant
industries• Easier access to affordable housing• More recreation/social opportunities• Cheaper transport links• Faster transport links• Greater electronic connectivity
Policy Responses
• Engagement
• Education
• Employment
• Environment
Effective Intervention
• All agencies recognise importance of demographic imbalance
• Alignment of public, private and third sectors
• Further liaison with young people to identify messages and effective communication channels
http://www.hie.co.uk/youth-migration.htm