You Are A RISK Manager

The Least A Manager Should Know

2009 …

Fighting Fire or Fire Fighting

… Incovenient Truth …

… 2072

… CEO

Effect of Uncertainty on

Objectives

ISO 31000

SafetyDefenceMedical

EngineeringOperation

Project

Risk is the potential that a chosen action or activity (including the choice of inaction) will lead to a loss (an undesirable outcome)

RiskIssue

Problem

May Be FutureCertain FutureNow

Money, Health, HappinessSales, Collection, ProfitCost, Quality, Schedule

PersonalOperatio

nProject

ApplePalm

BlackberryNokia

EricsonSony

WhyHowWhat

What? How? Why?

WHY

Effect

Uncertainty

Objectives

Goals

Ob

ject

ive s

Pu

rpose

Pass

ion

Vis

ion

Mis

sion

1. Best performance

2. Least cost3. On time4. Least

surprises

Objective

1. Lender2. Insurer3. Contract4. Governance

Uncertainty

Anything that can go wrong, will …

Effects

Property Damage.Liability to 3rd Party.Injury.Dispute.Negligence.

Code of Hammurabi; 1772 BC

1. The disproportionate role of high-impact, hard-to-predict, rare events

2. The non-computability of the probability of the consequential rare events

3. The psychological biases that make people blind to uncertainty

Pop Quiz

200719691112197220 07 1969 11 12 1972

What did Eugene "Geno" Cernan did on 11 December 1972

Last man on the Moon on Apollo 17

HOW

Context

AnalyzeEvaluate

Understand

1. Things You Know, You Know

2. You Know, You Don’t Know

3. You Don’t Know, You Don’t Know

Analyze

Impact

Likelihood

Evaluate

Opportunity

Threat

Prioritize

Increase

Good

Reduce Bad

Decide

AcceptShareAvoidMitigate

Reduce likelihoodReduce Impact

Control

PreventiveDetectiveDirective

Corrective

ProcessInspectInstructRecover

WHAT

Risk Plan

Risk Register

Risk Report

3 Parts 5 Steps

Context

Identify

Analyze

Evaluate

Review

Risk Assessment Report

Risk RegisterRisk

Management Plan

Risk Assessment

1. To CRO, Senior Management or Board

2. Status of operation or project3. Assumptions that remains right or

otherwise.4. List of High Risks.5. List of Critical Risks or risks which

have turn into Problem.6. Status of Control and Responses to

risks.

Risk Register

1. How much are the financial exposure?

2. What are the High and Critical Risks?

3. How much control do we have? 4. How should we respond to the risks?5. What can we do to improve control?6. What are most urgent and important

action that we need to take right now?

Risk Management Plan

1. What is the project about and objectives?

2. What are the assumptions ?3. Who are the project team members?4. What macro uncertainties do we

have?5. When and how are we going to

identify micro uncertainties?6. What do we do when Risks turn into

Problem?

1. Risk Management Plan

What do we have?

What to do?When to review?

Whatever.Just do it.Why review?

2. Risk Register Concept

1. Context2. Identify3. Analyze4. Evaluat

e5. Review

When, WhereList, Cause, SourceLikelihood x ImpactWeak / Maybe / Good…

Risk Register TemplateRisk

DescriptionLikeliho

odImpact Contol Effect Priorit

y

Late for office due to bad traffic causing discipline problem at work

Likely Moderate

Set alarm clock at 5.30am

Loss of income

NU / NI

Store caught fire due to inadequate fire safety measaure causing loss of stock.

Unlikely High Install fire alarm, smoke sensor and fire extinguisher

RM10k U / NI

Factory flooded causing lack of raw materials and completed products not able to be exported.

Rare Extreme

Business Interuption Insurance

RM10m NU / I

3. Reporting Risk Concept

1. High Risks2. Critical Risks3. Problems

1. Challenge what is possible.

2. Improve, to help others

Why How What

Learning from Apple

Why How What

Next …

Greenland, Ilulissat, Underwater image of icebergs floating near face of Jakobshavn Isfjord

Anwar Ahmad Abidin

twitter.com/xanwara

+6 019-6649328