Yasko Kasai, National Institute of Information and Communications Technology (NICT)/ Tokyo Institute of Technology/The ministry of internal affairs and CommunicationsSetsuko Aoki, Keio University, Akiko Okamatsu, Hosei UniversityMasami Onoda, the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA)/ the Institute for Global Environmental Strategies (IGES) Akiko Aizawa, National Institute of Informatics

The PEOIC project is under the Research Institute of Science and Technology for Society (RISTEX) in the Japan Science and Technology Agency (JST)

Policy and Earth Observation Innovation Cycle (PEOIC) project

Guidelines for the Advisory BoardPEOIC is under the JST “R&D Program: Science of Science, Technology and Innovation Policy” https://www.ristex.jp/EN/examin/stipolicy/index.htmlThe Program states that “Indeed, in science, technology and innovation (STI) policy to date, problems have been encountered not infrequently. Sometimes R&D investment has been made without adequate objective evidence. Other times, although great insights have been gained through basic research, the research outcomes have not been applied in an effective fashion so that they lead to innovations or the creation of systems to resolve challenges and advance society. Yet other times, outstanding policy ideas have been conceived, but they have not been implemented due to insufficient communication with the public. The root cause of this was the absence of clear, evidence-based methods to create STI policy.To remedy this situation, our program aims to develop methods to formulate the following kinds of policies;Policies that will lead to the resolution of real challenges by advancing the basic research and applying the research outcomes to the challenges andPolicies that will promote the innovation of society by drawing on basic research.In this endeavor, it will be criticalTo design a multistage process from basic research, to social application of outcomes, to evaluation of that application;To develop methods for measuring the economic and social impact of R&D investment;To build an effective research framework to form policies based on objective evidence; andTo ensure proper communication among policy makers, the scientific community and the public in order to promote the application of research findings in society.

Objective of the Program:To contribute over the medium to long term to evidence-based policy formation in the area of STI through the following approaches;Promoting R&D projects on new analytic methodologies, models, data-systematization tools and aggregate indicators that can be used in actual policy,Increasing the number of researchers who work on this challenge in a wide range of disciplines and interdisciplinary fields, and expanding the community network through public relations and dialogue on the activities.

The PEOIC Project aims at:In general:We are seeking to identify generic models, criteria or recommendations that might prompt organisations/agencies that are working on missions to consider the connection of science and technology to environmental policy in the design and concept phases.Primarily interested in the environmental policy domains …Wish to understand how science and technology (in particular EO) has (and can in the future) influence decision-makers and societal policy. Interested in specific examples.Target is to perform an assessment of the impact of satellite observations on environmental policy and use this information to propose a mission that would achieve an “innovation cycle”, whereby the assessment would feed back to new innovation for next-generation observation technology, thus contributing to global policy demand for information.

For the workshop:The goal of the workshop is to propose a preliminary method/set of criteria/recommendations to provide evidence-based evaluation in order to guide the development of new missionsAB members are asked to present on the relationship between EO and decision-making/societal policy in their fields of work, to identify topics for the publication and to stimulate discussion amongst the groupAB members will be involved in two discussion sessions to define the goals, planned outcomes, structure, content, required inputs, and schedule for the publication. For the publication:We are aiming to address the gap in knowledge related to the impact of satellite Earth observations on enhanced societal policies.The publication will summarise, for the first time, the current state of work in the field of studies on the policy impact of satellite EO.We plan to publish a preliminary method/set of criteria/recommendations to provide evidence-based evaluation guide the development of new missions.AB members will contribute chapters based on their input to the workshop – shaped by the discussions at the workshop.

Policy

Satellite observation

Mining Evaluation

Research Flow

Inversion analysis

Data bases Statistical approachevaluation

Policy Group Setsuko Aoki, Professor, Faculty of Policy Management, Keio University

Akiko Okamatsu, Professor, Faulty of Humanity and Environment, Hosei UniversityHiroko Sasaki, Ocean Division, Int’l Legal Affairs Bureau, Ministry of Foreign Affairs

1 Methodology of the study1 Goal: to find the correlation between a certain environmental policy and space-based imagery

2 Selection of some issues likely to find a strong relationship if not correlation (1) the protection of the ozone layer legal regime to control the produce, use and transfer the ozone depleting substances (ODS) under the Vienna Convention/Montreal Protocol

“the single most successful international agreement to date” (2) The Arctic region

2 Arctic policy and satellite-based data and information 3 Possible other subjects could be used to make a model

8

1 The protection of ozone layer and satellite data

1 1985 (1988) Vienna Convention for the Protection of Ozone Layer 2 1987 (1989) Montreal Protocol on Substances that deplete the Ozone layer *4 amendments: 1990, 1992, 1997, 1999 *6 adjustments: 1990, 1992, 1995, 1997, 1999, 2007

9

?

Path to the legal regime of the ozone layer protection

year Events (scientific, social events

Late 19c- 1930s

increasing capabilities to measure the volume of the ozone around the globe and to find the relationship between the chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), ozone layer and the health impacts

1974 Prof. Rowland & Dr. Molina: Freon gas depletes the ozone layer. An article in “Nature”

1975 The first WMO intergovernmental scientific statement :warning of the danger to the ozone layer

1977 “World Plan of Action on the Ozone Layer“ adopted in the UNEP.

1978 USA banned the use of the CFCs. TOMS sensor since November 1978 1981 Governing council of UNEP formed an ad hoc legal and technical working group to draft a Framework

Convention for the Protection of the Ozone Layer.1985 Vienna Convention for the Protection of Ozone Layer adopted.

1987 Montreal Protocol on Substances that deplete the Ozone layer

Established and establishing rules to control ODS

Vienna Convention(framework)

Montreal ProtocolConcrete obligations

Developing obligations of the Montreal Protocol throughAdjustments and Amendments

What is provided for?

*Vienna Convention (197 Parties) = to take appropriate measures --- to protect human health and the environment against adverse effects resulting or likely to result from human activities which modify or are likely to modify the ozone layer. *Montreal Protocol (197 Parties) regulates the production and use of CFCs, halons, and carbon tetrachloride, which are all greenhouse gases. States parties shall totally phase out ODS in accordance with the schedule. adjustment the advancement of such time guidelines amendment adding new regulations including adding new substances to control to the Montreal Protocol

Year MOP Entered into force

Contents of the Amendment

1990 MOP2 1992 Adding the following controlled substances Chlorofluorocarbon (CFCs; CFC-13, 111, 112, 211, 212, 213, 214, 215, 216, 217);Carbon tetrachloride 1,1,1-trichloroethane (methyl chloroform) ; Adding Hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs) to the transitional substances

1992 MOP4 1994 Replacing HCFCs (Hydrochlorofluorocarbons) as the controlled substances.Adding the following controlled substances; Hydrobromofluorocarbons (HBFC),Methyl bromide

1997 MOP9 1999 Banning the import and export of Methyl bromide from and to non-PartiesControlling of trade with Parties; Establishing a system for licensing the import and export of new, used, recycled and reclaimed controlled substances

1999 MOP11 2002 Adopting Hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs) to the control of production and tradeAdding Bromochloromethane to the controlled substances; Banning the import and export of Bromochloromethane from and to non-Parties Providing to the Secretariat statistical data on the annual amount of the Methyl bromide

Amendment

year MOP Entered into force

Contents of the Adjustment

1990 MOP2 1991 Adopting the severer level of production and consumption of the following controlled substances; Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs; CFC 11, 12, 113, 114, 115); Halons (Halon 1211, 1301, 2402)

1992 MOP4 1993 Accelerating the schedule of controlling the following substances; Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), Halons, Other Fully Halogenated CFCs, Carbon Tetrachloride 1, 1, 1- Trichloroethane (Methyl Chloroform)

1995 MOP7 1996 Accelerating the schedule of controlling the following substances;Hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFC);- Methyl bromide.Adopting the schedule of the following controlled substances with respect to developing countries; Chlorofluorocarbons (CFC), Halon; -Carbon Tetrachloride; -1, 1, 1- Trichloroethane (Methyl Chloroform). Adopting the following controlled substances with respect to developing countries . Hydrobromofluorocarbons (HBFC); -Hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFC), Methyl bromide

1997 MOP9 1998 Accelerating the schedule of controlling Methyl bromide1999 MOP11 2000 Adopting the schedule of the following controlled substances in order to satisfy the basic

domestic needs of developing countries; Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), Halons, Other fully halogenated CFCs, Methyl bromide

2007 MOP19 2008 Accelerating the schedule of controlling Hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs)

Adjustment

Research of the the documents: Vienna Convention COP/ Montreal Protocol MOP and Ozone Research

Managers (ORM), etc.

Promising findings

1 Among the various reports, those by the Ozone Research Managers (ORM) best portray the role played by the satellite mission instruments.

2 From the reports available, more and more importance and effectiveness of the satellite data is recognized by increased number of countries (comparative studies of national reports, etc.)

3 Satellite data is indispensable to i) enhance the accuracy of the ground observation by comparison and ii) areas where few reliable ground observing facility exists (e.g. Mongolia)

Promising finding of satellite data and the evolving control through the Montreal Protocol and its amendments/adjustments

many national reports of the Ozone Research Managers (ORM) commonly state that the comparison between satellite-based observations and ground-based ones (esp. Brewer- Dobson measuring system) indispensable.

(finding)Without satellite data, reliable data cannot be obtained, especially for the large-area ozone column calculation.

Latest (2014) ORM meeting reports:

Combination of the Satellite datasets, simulation and ground-based observation (Dobson-Brewer) should now be possible for the

i) accurate calculation of the emission of the ODS

and

ii) Measuring the important emerging ODS replacement substances (such as HFCs)

These two factors can influence the new regulations within the Montreal Protocol scheme.

2 Future consideration

The arctic regime is in the midst of making for the mid-21st century.

While it is in a premature phase, satellite-data could be made use of for adopting a certain policy over the other policies.

A few examples of mission instruments used OCO-2; SAGE-III; AMSR-E/Aqua; AMSR-2/Aqua PALSAR/ALOS-1 (JAXA)（ Private company (weather news) WNISAT-1)

Data mining Group　

Tomohiro Sato, Yasuko Kasai, (NICT)Akiko Aizawa (NII)

Approach is:

Coordinate texts that have different categories/fields/languages by Topic AnalysisEx 1: Policy document vs Paper of satellite observation

EX 2: Science article vs News paper

EX 3: English vs Japanese

Document(Policy)

Science article(Satellite obs.)

First example: Ozone layer depletion

CEOSdatabase

WMO/UNEP Scientific Assessments of Ozone Depletion

etc

UNEP Meeting of the Parties (MOP) to the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone

etc Quantification

Objective of this Group:Quantification of relationship between Policy and Satellite Observation

Example of Topic Analysis(UNEP/WMO Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion 2010)

Topic 7th:ozone simulation UV % change future model column level total projection century effect return irradiance scenario 21st Esc aerosol climate

Topic 8th:ozone UV datum trend measurement total % irradiance JPL satellite model observation value solar cloud cross ground-based Clo polar radiation

Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) [Blei et al., 2003]

Extraction of Topics that are relevant to the document

. . . . . .

Projection of ozone in 21st century General of ozone observation

“Let it be” is my favorite song.John Lennon and Paul McCartney are best musicians.

The Beatles

Topic

Key Topics in WMO and MOP reports(Topics that include the word “ozone”)

1985

1988

1989 1990

1991 1992

1994 1995 1997

1998 1999

2002

2006

2010

2014

Atmospheric chemistry, Future prediction

Antarctic ozone loss

Chlorine species as CFC

UV and ozone, Bromine species

Climate change, Long-term trend

Recovery, Arctic

Antarctic and Arctic ozone loss

Chlorine/bromine species, UVLong-term trend

Scenario of climate change in the 21C

Montreal Protocolinternational cooperation

CFC, Halon, Agreement

Chlorine and bromine species

Phase-out, CFC, bromineOzone depleting substances, Multilateral

Accordance, alternative, phase-out, UV

< WMO report > < MOP report >(We picked up important five reports.)

“CFC” and “bromine” are the keywordsto connect WMO and MOP reports.

How to quantify: Correlation of TopicsAn example: Scientific paper (CiNii) vs Newspaper (Nikkei)

Keywords:CFC, refrigerator

Summary and future works(of Information Processing Group)

Objective: Quantification of relationship between Policy and Satellite Observation

Using Latent Dirichlet Allocation, Topics are extracted from the documents.“CFC” and “bromine ” are the keywords that are included in both Topics (WMO and MOP).

Establishment of “quantification” of Topics that have different fields is in execution.

ProblemsPolicy is connected with “ozone” but not yet with Satellite Observation.Method of ozone measurement is not only satellite observation.There are other way of ground-based and balloon-based measurement.

Future worksExtract Topics of other policy documents (MOP, COP and ORM) Keep going of establishment of “quantification”